Four games means we build heavy: a five-man power play stack, a goalie who rides with it, and a second unit from another game. Two games share the top total of 6.5, Winnipeg at Pittsburgh and San Jose at Dallas. We build around the Tampa Bay top power play (TBL PP1), which has the best 90th percentile outcome of any stack tonight. Andrei Vasilevskiy is our cash goalie and pairs with that stack.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ TBL | 5.5 | TBL -225 | TBL 3.21, PHI 2.29 | TBL PP vs 23rd ranked PK |
| OTT @ BOS | 5.5 | OTT -120 | OTT 2.81, BOS 2.69 | BOS third game in four nights |
| WPG @ PIT | 6.5 | PIT -182 | PIT 3.61, WPG 2.89 | WPG on a back-to-back after travel |
| SJS @ DAL | 6.5 | DAL -205 | DAL 3.69, SJS 2.81 | DAL PP vs 25th ranked PK, DAL third game in four nights |
Dallas owns the best special teams edge of the night: a top-five power play against a San Jose penalty kill that ranked 25th, a number that still leans on last season this early.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Nick Robertson moves to the Crosby line |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Jordan Spence, Nikolas Matinpalo |
| Matt Duchene (DAL, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen |
| Justin Brazeau (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Nick Robertson, Rickard Rakell |
| Connor Hellebuyck (WPG, G) | Suspension | 6 | Clay Stevenson starts |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,200), cash
Vasilevskiy is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Tampa Bay carries a 66% win chance and Philadelphia owns the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.29 goals. We project only 19.4 saves because the Flyers drive the fewest shot attempts of any team tonight (45.6% shot share, mostly last season), but his 13% shutout chance leads the slate. If Tampa turns to its backup, move to Swayman.
Jeremy Swayman (BOS, $8,000), GPP
Swayman is confirmed. He projects for 27.4 saves, and his 8% chance at 35 or more saves is the best of the night, because Ottawa drives a 51.9% shot share, second only to Tampa Bay on this slate. The Senators sit at 2.81 implied goals, so the volume comes without a scary scoring threat. His win chance sits near a coin flip at 48%.
Fade Clay Stevenson. He makes his Winnipeg debut on the second night of a back-to-back against a Pittsburgh team implied for 3.61 goals, and his floor sits below zero.
Check today's NHL starting goalies before lock.
Stacks to Target
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, John Carlson
Tampa Bay is implied for 3.21 goals against Dan Vladar, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. TBL PP1 merges two lines: Kucherov and Point from the top line, Hagel and Guentzel from the second line (TBL F2), with Carlson at the point. TBL F2 drives a 56.3% shot share and the Kucherov line sits at 53.7%. Philadelphia's penalty kill ranked 23rd. The unit posts the best 90th percentile on the slate, and the correlation adds 8.2 points at that level. It is popular, not chalk. We play it in cash and GPP, with Vasilevskiy behind it.
PIT PP1: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson, Tommy Novak, Ben Kindel
Pittsburgh carries the second highest implied total at 3.61 goals. Stevenson is confirmed for Winnipeg, and the Jets play the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Winnipeg's penalty kill ranked 26th, and Pittsburgh's power play edge is the second best of the night. Novak and Kindel center lower lines at even strength but join Crosby on PP1, so the unit costs only $26,100. The Crosby line runs a 49.4% shot share, so the case rests on the power play. GPP.
BOS PP1: David Pastrnak, JJ Peterka, Morgan Geekie, Pavel Zacha, Mason Lohrei
This is our contrarian stack. Boston is implied for only 2.69 goals against Linus Ullmark, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Ottawa's penalty kill ranked 24th, and the Pastrnak line holds a 50.8% shot share. Boston plays its third game in four nights, which keeps us at a GPP only grade. The unit is low-owned, costs $24,600 and gets a 7.1 point correlation lift at the 90th percentile. Pair it with Swayman.
Full units and PP splits: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Value Stack
BOS PP2: Elias Lindholm, Hampus Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt, Fraser Minten ($12,800 total)
Four skaters for $12,800 with a 90th percentile that still lands in the top half of the slate's stacks. Elias Lindholm centers Pastrnak at even strength and Hampus Lindholm plays on the top pair for 21.3 minutes, so two of the four see top unit minutes. The savings pay for TBL PP1 and Vasilevskiy in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: DAL PP1. Pivot: WPG PP1. Both units cost $30,300. Dallas earns its spot with the top implied total, but Winnipeg's PP1 owns the third best 90th percentile on the slate at far lower ownership. The back-to-back and a Pittsburgh penalty kill that ranked 3rd keep the field away, and that is the leverage.
Chalk goalie: Jeremy Swayman. Pivot: Andrei Vasilevskiy. For $200 more you get the best shutout chance of the night and fewer shared entries. We still like Swayman in GPPs, so split them across your lineups.
Skaters
Centers
Wyatt Johnston ($6,700): cash. He centers the Dallas top line (DAL1) with Rantanen and stays on PP1, with 20 projected minutes. With Duchene on injured reserve, no one cuts into his role, and he projects for 0.53 goals, the most of any center tonight. Expect him to be the most popular skater on the slate.
Dylan Cozens ($4,800): GPP. Ottawa uses him as the second line center and keeps him on PP1, where he projects for 2.5 shots. His 19 point ceiling sits half a point below Brayden Point at $1,000 less, and the field leaves him low-owned.
Wingers
Jason Robertson ($7,200): cash. Robertson skates on the Dallas second line with Hintz and stays on the top power play. He leads the slate in projected shots at 3.35 and owns the best chance at 5 or more shots at 25%. That shot floor is what cash needs.
Evgeni Malkin ($5,700): GPP. Malkin plays on the second line with Novak but runs PP2, not PP1, so he misses the Crosby stack. Pittsburgh is implied for 3.61 goals against a tired team, and his 19.5 point ceiling at a low ownership fits large fields.
Defensemen
Miro Heiskanen ($5,500): cash. He plays on the top pair and quarterbacks PP1 for 23 minutes. His floor of 3 points ties for the best of any defenseman, and Dallas has the highest implied total on the board.
Neal Pionk ($3,800): GPP. Winnipeg uses Pionk on the second pair and on PP2 for 22 minutes. He projects for 1.5 blocked shots and 1.8 shots on goal, which gives him two ways to score at a low-owned price.
Value Plays
Alexander Wennberg (SJS C, $3,300): A second line center who rides PP1 with Celebrini for 19.3 minutes. He leads the slate in points per dollar.
Nick Robertson (PIT W, $3,400): Rust's injury puts him on the Crosby line. He projects for 1.8 shots in 14.9 minutes, and the price ignores the promotion. How he still costs $3,400 is a mystery.
Justin Hryckowian (DAL W, $3,000): He rides with Johnston on DAL1 and plays on PP2 for a team implied for 3.69 goals.
Blocks Floor
Cam York (PHI D, $3,200): York plays on the second pair and no power play unit, but logs 23 minutes against a Tampa team that drives play. He projects for 2.0 blocked shots, the most on the slate, with a 32% chance at the 3 block bonus.
Esa Lindell (DAL D, $3,300): Lindell skates on the second pair and PP2. He projects for 1.8 blocks with a 26% chance at 3 or more. Both are cash and floor plays.
Props to Watch
Kyle Connor over 2.5 shots on goal (-176): we project 3.18 shots, the widest gap to a main line on the board.
Josh Morrissey over 1.5 shots on goal (-164): he logs 24 minutes on the top pair and PP1, and we project 2.04 shots.
Treat both as leans and keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Six goalies are expected to start, not yet confirmed: Vasilevskiy, Silovs, Oettinger, Ullmark, Vladar and Askarov. No tool names the backups, so recheck each team after the morning skate. Swayman and Stevenson are confirmed.
- Winnipeg plays the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Boston and Dallas play their third game in four nights.
- Ottawa: Tim Stutzle shows on the projected top line and PP1 but has no DraftKings salary in our pool, and Sanderson is day-to-day. Watch line rushes. If Sanderson sits, Spence and Matinpalo gain minutes.
- Pittsburgh: Rust and Brazeau are on injured reserve. Confirm Nick Robertson on the Crosby line at the morning skate.
Final Thoughts
For cash, build around Vasilevskiy with Johnston, Jason Robertson and Heiskanen as the core. For GPPs, take TBL PP1 with Swayman, add a PIT PP1 or BOS PP1 mini-stack, and use BOS PP2 or the value plays to fit it under the cap.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Tonight only Swayman and Stevenson are confirmed, so six starters can still change. Check the goalie page before lock and have a swap ready for any goalie still marked as expected.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup chases floor: top minutes, PP1 time and shot volume from players the field also plays. A GPP lineup chases ceiling with correlated stacks and a few low-owned pieces. Tonight that means Johnston and Heiskanen for cash, and TBL PP1 plus a contrarian Boston unit for GPPs.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.