MLB Trend Tracker

Backtest MLB betting trends

Test a situational angle against real game and odds history before you bet it. Build a filter such as home underdogs in division games, or overs after a bullpen game, and see what it actually returned rather than what it feels like it returns.

Why most published trends do not survive testing

If you slice a large enough database enough ways, some of the slices will look profitable purely by chance. That is arithmetic, not insight. A trend built by searching until something looked good is describing noise, and it stops working the moment you bet it.

Sample size is the first filter to apply. A record of 23 and 11 sounds convincing and is close to meaningless. Situational angles generally need several hundred games before the result is distinguishable from luck, and most published trends are nowhere near that.

The second filter is whether there is a reason. A trend with a mechanism behind it, such as travel, rest, or a bullpen that had to cover extra innings, is far more likely to persist than one that is only a pattern. If you cannot explain why it would be true, treat the number as a coincidence.

Testing an angle properly

Decide what you are testing before you look at the result. Choosing the filters after seeing which ones worked is how a backtest turns into a story about the past.

Then check whether the edge survives the price. A system that wins 53 percent of its bets is profitable at even money and loses at -120, so a trend's win rate means nothing until you hold it against what you would actually have paid.

Frequently asked questions