Nine games give us room to build. We can run more one-offs and pick among several good stacks, so we do not have to force the most popular one. Three games share the top total of 6.5: CAR at MTL, UTA at NJD and MIN at BUF. We build around the Detroit top power play unit (DET PP1) against an Ottawa team on the second night of a back-to-back, and we trust Igor Shesterkin in cash.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH @ TOR | 5.5 | TOR -154 | TOR 2.97, NSH 2.53 | TOR PK ranks 2nd |
| OTT @ DET | 5.5 | Pick'em, -110 each | DET 2.75, OTT 2.75 | OTT on a back-to-back after travel |
| CAR @ MTL | 6.5 | CAR -125 | CAR 3.35, MTL 3.16 | CAR PP vs 20th ranked PK |
| UTA @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -128 | NJD 3.36, UTA 3.14 | UTA plays its third game in four nights |
| MIN @ BUF | 6.5 | MIN -115 | MIN 3.29, BUF 3.21 | MIN PP ranks 2nd |
| NYI @ NYR | 5.5 | NYR -156 | NYR 2.98, NYI 2.52 | none |
| STL @ CHI | 5.5 | STL -140 | STL 2.91, CHI 2.59 | none |
| VGK @ SEA | 5.5 | VGK -172 | VGK 3.04, SEA 2.46 | VGK PP vs 30th ranked PK |
| FLA @ LAK | 5.5 | FLA -126 | FLA 2.84, LAK 2.66 | FLA PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
The best special teams edge of the night belongs to Vegas: its power play sits 9.1 points better than Seattle's penalty kill when you add the two gaps together. Every team has played four games or fewer, so these power play and penalty kill numbers lean on last season's results.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard (CHI, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Patrick Kane, Frank Nazar |
| Seth Jarvis (CAR, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Out | 9 | Thomas Chabot, Carter Yakemchuk |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Quinn Hughes, Olli Maatta |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri |
| Jason Zucker (BUF, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn |
| Simon Edvinsson (DET, D) | Out | 6 | Moritz Seider, Justin Faulk |
| Ivan Demidov (MTL, RW) | Out | 6 | Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Igor Shesterkin (NYR, $8,100), cash
Shesterkin is expected to start, not yet confirmed. He has the best floor of any goalie on the slate (2.75), a 58.4% win chance and 25.8 projected saves. The Islanders are implied for 2.52 goals and drive 48.8% of 5v5 shot attempts on a blended basis. If New York turns to its backup, drop to Jesper Wallstedt.
Jakub Dobes (MTL, $7,500), GPP
Morning news says Dobes will start against Carolina, and our status tool lists him as Likely. The appeal is volume. He projects for 30.16 saves, the most on the slate, and his 21.3% chance at 35 or more saves is about double the next goalie. Carolina leads tonight's games in 5v5 shot share (58.9%) and is implied for 3.35 goals, so the floor is thin. That is the trade we want in a tournament.
Avoid Carter Hart at $8,400. Vegas is a big favorite, but he projects for only 21.03 saves and has almost no path to the 35-save bonus.
Status for every crease: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
DET PP1: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider
Add Viktor Arvidsson and Lucas Raymond for the full five ($31,400). Detroit is implied for 2.75 goals against Samuel Ersson, who is expected to start for an Ottawa team on a back-to-back after travel and on its third game in four nights. Ottawa's penalty kill ranks 23rd, and this unit adds 9.8 points at its 90th percentile from correlation, the most of any stack tonight. The Larkin line drives 51.2% of shot attempts at 5v5, and Elo calls the forward matchup even. Expect it to be popular. We play it first in GPPs, and it holds up in cash.
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes
Joel Eriksson Ek and Maxim Shabanov round out the unit ($32,700). Minnesota is implied for 3.29 goals against Colten Ellis, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Wild power play ranks 2nd and faces the 11th ranked penalty kill. With Brock Faber out, Hughes projects for 26.85 minutes. Boldy's second line drives 51.6% of shot attempts. This unit is popular, so we lean on it in cash and smaller fields.
FLA PP1: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Brady Tkachuk
Sam Bennett and Seth Jones complete it ($32,300). Florida is implied for 2.84 goals against Darcy Kuemper, expected to start, not yet confirmed. Los Angeles has the worst penalty kill in the league by our blend (32nd), and Florida's top line drives 54.5% of 5v5 shot attempts. This unit has the same 90th percentile as the Kings' top unit with well under half the ownership. Contrarian GPP.
Units and PP1 groups for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Value Stack
NYR F1: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière, Gabe Perreault ($13,800 total)
No line with a 90th percentile in the top half of tonight's stacks costs less (Chicago's top line ties it). Zibanejad and Lafrenière also skate on PP1, and the line pairs with Shesterkin if you want a goalie that correlates with the stack. At $13,800 for three skaters, it frees salary for a full power play unit in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: TOR PP1. Pivot: MTL PP1. The Toronto top unit (TOR PP1) is the most popular stack, at $34,100 against a Nashville kill that ranks 7th. The Montreal top unit (MTL PP1) costs $31,400, has a 90th percentile within ten points and much lower ownership. It adds 9.6 points from correlation and pairs with Dobes.
Chalk goalie: Igor Shesterkin. Pivot: Jesper Wallstedt. Shesterkin is our cash play and the most popular goalie. In tournaments, Wallstedt ($7,600) has a higher ceiling with lower ownership and stacks well with MIN PP1.
Skaters
Centers
Jack Hughes ($8,100): cash. Hughes centers the second line and quarterbacks PP1 for 20.99 projected minutes. He has the highest floor of any skater (5.0) and projects for 3.54 shots for the team with the highest implied total, 3.36. He will be chalk, and in cash that is fine.
Jack Eichel ($8,500): GPP. The Vegas top-line center also runs the Vegas top power play unit (VGK PP1), which has the best special teams edge on the slate. He projects for 0.81 assists and a 23-point ceiling, and almost nobody will play him at this price.
Wingers
William Nylander ($6,600): cash. He skates on the second line but stays on the top power play, and Max Domi's injury sends more of the work his way. He projects for 12.54 points at 1.9 points per $1,000, the best value of any winger priced $6,000 or more.
Clayton Keller ($7,000): GPP. Utah runs its top line and its 4th ranked power play through Keller, in a game with a 6.5 total. He projects for 0.73 assists and about a 10% chance at three or more points at low ownership. The risk is fatigue: Utah plays its third game in four nights.
Defensemen
Rasmus Dahlin ($6,700): cash. With Conor Timmins out, Buffalo leans on its top-pair, PP1 defenseman for 23.38 projected minutes. His 4.3-point floor ties for the best among defensemen, and he projects for 2.67 shots. He will be popular.
Shea Theodore ($5,600): GPP. Seattle's penalty kill ranks 30th, and Theodore attacks it from the VGK PP1 point on top of 22.04 projected minutes on the top pair. His 18-point ceiling comes at low ownership.
Value Plays
Frank Nazar (CHI C, $3,500): Connor Bedard is out, so Nazar centers the top line and plays on PP1 for 18.14 projected minutes. At 2.32 points per $1,000, we expect DraftKings to fix this price soon.
Emmitt Finnie (DET C, $2,800): Finnie centers DeBrincat on the second line and plays on PP2. He is a cheap way to add a Detroit piece outside the main unit.
Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD W, $3,400): Gritsyuk plays on PP2 for the team with the highest implied total. He projects for 2.2 shots.
Blocks Floor
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $4,900): Weegar plays on the top pair with Mikhail Sergachev and does not play on a power play unit. He projects for 2.08 blocked shots and a 35.5% chance at the 3-block bonus. Treat him as a cash and floor play.
Olli Maatta (MIN D, $2,900): Maatta moves up to the second pair with Jonas Brodin while Faber is out and does not play on a power play. He projects for 1.76 blocked shots and a 26.6% chance at three or more, for a cash floor at a near-minimum price.
Props to Watch
Timo Meier over 2.5 shots on goal (-128): he projects for 3.13 shots, 0.63 above the line.
Adrian Kempe under 3.5 shots on goal (-168): he projects for 2.95 shots, so the line sits more than half a shot high.
Thomas Chabot under 2.5 shots on goal (-192): he projects for 1.96 shots for an Ottawa team on the second night of a back-to-back.
Treat each one as a lean and keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Every goalie except John Gibson is Likely, not Confirmed. Watch Shesterkin, Dobes and Ellis most closely. No tool lists the backups yet, so check after each morning skate.
- Ottawa is on a back-to-back after travel. Ersson is expected to start, and Linus Ullmark is listed day to day. Confirm the Ottawa goalie before you lock DET PP1.
- Utah and Seattle each play their third game in four nights. Watch for line changes at morning skate.
- Montreal lists Alexandre Carrier and Oliver Kapanen as day to day. Check line rushes before you lock in MTL PP1.
- The Minnesota, Florida and Rangers lines were last updated yesterday. Confirm them at morning skate.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Shesterkin, Hughes, Dahlin and Nylander, and fill around a MIN PP1 mini-stack. For GPPs, play DET PP1 or FLA PP1 with Dobes or Wallstedt in net and a Value Play in the open spot. Tools for all of it: NHL DFS tools.
NHL DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night often starts its backup goalie and can look tired late in games, which helps the opponent's shooters. Tonight Ottawa is the only team on a back-to-back, and it traveled, which is part of why we stack DET PP1. If you play a skater from that team, confirm the goalie and the lines first.
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five skaters on a team's top power play unit. They score together on the power play, so one goal can give points to three or four of them at once. Tonight DET PP1 has the most correlation lift of any stack on the slate.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.