Four games means a stack night: we build around full power play units and pick a goalie who wins when the stack scores. Pittsburgh at Columbus and Anaheim at Winnipeg share the top total at 6.5. Our build starts with the Detroit top power play (DET PP1) against a Seattle penalty kill that ranks 30th, and we trust Logan Thompson in cash with John Gibson as the GPP partner for that Detroit stack.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ CBJ | 6.5 | CBJ -118 | PIT 3.20, CBJ 3.30 | PIT PP vs 29th ranked PK, CBJ on 5 days rest |
| SEA @ DET | 5.5 | DET -140 | SEA 2.59, DET 2.91 | DET PP vs 30th ranked PK |
| NYR @ WSH | 5.5 | WSH -144 | NYR 2.57, WSH 2.93 | none |
| ANA @ WPG | 6.5 | WPG -118 | ANA 3.20, WPG 3.30 | WPG PP vs 25th ranked PK |
Detroit has the best special teams edge of the night: a power play that ranks 10th against Seattle's 30th ranked penalty kill, a combined edge of 7.3 percentage points over league average. No team has played 10 games yet, so every rank here leans on last season.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | IR | 8 | Cutter Gauthier, Alex Killorn, A.J. Greer |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Day-to-day | 6 | Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg, Dylan DeMelo |
| Simon Edvinsson (DET, D) | Out | 6 | Ben Chiarot, Albert Johansson |
| Justin Brazeau (PIT, RW) | IR | 6 | Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Ben Kindel |
| Rasmus Sandin (WSH, D) | IR | 6 | Martin Fehervary, Timothy Liljegren |
| Connor Hellebuyck (WPG, G) | IR (suspension) | 6 | Stuart Skinner |
| Joonas Korpisalo (NYR, G) | IR | 6 | Igor Shesterkin |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Logan Thompson (WSH, $8,300), cash
Thompson is confirmed against the Rangers, and Washington is the biggest favorite on the slate at -144 with a 56.5% win chance. New York's 2.57 implied total is the lowest of the night. We project 20.75 saves on about 23 shots, so his floor comes from the win and a 10.4% shutout chance, the best on the slate.
John Gibson (DET, $8,200), GPP
Gibson is confirmed against Seattle with a 55.7% win chance and 22.36 projected saves. Seattle carries a 2.59 implied total and the lowest 5v5 shot share on the slate at 45.6%, mostly on last season's numbers. He pairs with DET PP1, and on four games you want the goalie win and the Detroit power play goals in the same lineup.
Skip Stuart Skinner. He is the most popular goalie, he is expected to start but not yet confirmed, and he faces an Anaheim team with a 3.20 implied total and the best 5v5 shot share on the slate (51.8%). If Winnipeg turns to its backup, the Winnipeg goalie spot is a full fade.
Status changes post all afternoon on today's NHL starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
DET PP1: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider
Detroit's implied total is 2.91 against Joey Daccord, who is expected to start for Seattle but not yet confirmed. The forward matchup grades even on Elo, so the case is the power play: Detroit's PP ranks 10th and Seattle's penalty kill ranks 30th. The Larkin, Arvidsson and Raymond top line (DET F1) adds a 52.0% shot share at even strength. This unit has the highest 90th percentile outcome of any stack tonight at 98 DK points, for $32,700. It is the chalk, so it is our cash core, and we run it in GPP with Gibson.
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke, Mikael Granlund, Jackson LaCombe
Anaheim carries a 3.20 implied total against Skinner, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Carlsson top line (ANA F1) owns a 54.9% shot share, the best of any forward line among our four stack teams, and Troy Terry's hip injury keeps Gauthier locked into top minutes. The special teams spot is neutral (Anaheim's PP 22nd, Winnipeg's PK 23rd), so this stack lives on 5v5 volume. Its correlation lift is the biggest on the slate at 10.4 points, with a 93.4 ceiling for $31,500. GPP.
PIT PP1: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Tommy Novak, Ben Kindel, Erik Karlsson
PIT PP1 is our contrarian stack. Pittsburgh's implied total is 3.20 against Cam Talbot, confirmed for his Columbus debut. The Pittsburgh forwards sit 26.5 Elo points above the Columbus defense, just short of a SMASH tag. Pittsburgh's power play ranks 11th and Columbus's penalty kill ranks 29th, but Columbus has played two games, so that is mostly last season's penalty kill. With Justin Brazeau and Andrei Kuzmenko on IR, PP1 work runs through Crosby, Rakell and Kindel. At $27,300 the unit projects low-owned with a 72.5 ceiling. Columbus does come in on five days of rest. GPP.
Every line and PP unit, updated through the day: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Value Stack
CBJ F1: Adam Fantilli, Matthew Knies, Kent Johnson ($14,400 total)
All three also skate on the Columbus PP1, and Columbus has a 3.30 implied total, tied for the highest on the slate. The line's 90th percentile of 52.1 ranks 16th of 48 stacks, and its 48.5% shot share (mostly last season) is the honest knock. At $14,400 it frees room for two top-priced skaters and a confirmed goalie, and it doubles as the bring-back for PIT PP1.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: DET PP1. Pivot: ANA PP1. Anaheim's PP1 costs $1,200 less and its ceiling sits within 5 points. It also has the bigger correlation lift, and fewer people will play it.
Chalk goalie: Stuart Skinner. Pivot: John Gibson. Gibson costs $200 more but he is confirmed and a little less popular. He also pairs with the chalk stack, while Skinner faces our secondary one.
Skaters
Centers
Mark Scheifele ($6,400): cash
Scheifele centers the Winnipeg top line (WPG F1) and the WPG PP1, and his 20.47 projected minutes lead every center on the slate. He projects 0.83 assists against an Anaheim penalty kill that ranks 25th on mostly last season's numbers. Cash players get that floor at a fair price.
Dylan Strome ($4,800): GPP
The Washington top line runs through Strome at center, and he stays on PP1 too. Washington is the slate's biggest favorite with a 2.93 implied total, yet he is low-owned with a 16.5 point ceiling.
Wingers
Kyle Connor ($7,700): cash
Connor plays on WPG F1 and WPG PP1 for 20.28 projected minutes. He leads the slate at 15.07 projected DK points with 3.48 shots and a 28.9% chance at 5 or more. Expect him to be popular, and play him anyway.
Alex Tuch ($6,300): GPP
Tuch skates on the second line and runs the second power play, which keeps him out of most stack builds and low-owned. He still projects 18.47 minutes, 2.62 shots and a 20.6 ceiling, and he rates as Washington's top forward on our Elo ranking.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($7,800): cash
Top pair, PP1 and 26.77 projected minutes, the most of any skater tonight. His 5.8 point floor is the best on the slate, and the Columbus defensemen own the only SMASH unit matchup of the night on Elo.
Jakob Chychrun ($6,500): GPP
Chychrun anchors the Washington top pair and runs PP1 for 22.97 projected minutes. He projects 2.38 shots and a 19.5 ceiling at low ownership, and the Washington defensemen hold a 27.5 point Elo edge in their matchup.
Value Plays
Andrew Copp (DET C, $3,200): Copp centers the third line but plays on the second power play, and his 2.33 projected points per $1,000 is the best value on the slate. How a center with 17.66 projected minutes is still $3,200 is a mystery.
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (DET W, $2,700): He skates on the second line next to Alex DeBrincat and on PP2, and that line owns a 53.4% shot share, so you save salary without taking a fourth-line role.
Blocks Floor
Adam Larsson (SEA D, $3,200): Larsson plays on the Seattle top pair with Vince Dunn and has no power play role. He projects 1.93 blocked shots and a 30.5% chance at the 3-block bonus, the top mark among defensemen in our projections.
Dylan Samberg (WPG D, $3,300): Samberg plays on the second pair with Dylan DeMelo and has no power play role. He projects 1.81 blocked shots and a 28.1% chance at 3 or more, and Morrissey's status could add minutes. Use both in cash and as floor plays.
Props to Watch
Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal (-168): we project 2.09 shots, 0.59 above the line, the biggest over gap on a shots line outside our stacks.
Jordan Kyrou over 1.5 shots on goal (-188): we project 1.98 shots for a PP2 winger on the slate's biggest favorite.
Tom Wilson over 1.5 shots on goal (-178): we project 1.94 shots for the Washington PP1 winger.
All three carry heavy juice, so treat them as leans and keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Five goalies are expected to start but not yet confirmed: Skinner (WPG), Daccord (SEA), Silovs (PIT), Shesterkin (NYR) and Dostal (ANA). If a team turns to its backup, re-check every stack in that game.
- Josh Morrissey (WPG) is day-to-day. If he sits, Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg gain minutes.
- Detroit is without Simon Edvinsson. Watch the Detroit morning skate for the new pairs.
- Elmer Soderblom is a game-time call for a Pittsburgh depth spot. Check the Pittsburgh line rushes.
- No team is on a back-to-back tonight, and Columbus comes in on five days of rest.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Thompson, Werenski, Connor and Scheifele, then fill with the value plays. For GPP, run DET PP1 with Gibson, or go contrarian with PIT PP1 and the CBJ F1 bring-back. Our NHL DFS projections update every 30 minutes until lock.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack rosters the skaters on a team's first power play unit, so one power play goal can pay three or four of your players at once. Most PP1 units also share even strength lines, which gives the group two ways to score together. Tonight the top three stacks by 90th percentile are all PP1 units: Detroit, Anaheim and Winnipeg.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie and can fade late, more so after travel. That lowers its goalie's floor and lifts the skaters facing it. No team on tonight's slate is on a back-to-back, so rest is not a tiebreaker, though Columbus is the most rested at five days off.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.