The Course
Sixty-nine players show up in Memphis, nobody goes home early, and the whole thing runs on a golf course that has never once cared how far you hit it. TPC Southwind is a par 70 at 7,288 yards, which on paper looks like a pushover for a playoff field, and then you measure the fairways and find they average 26 yards across. That number is the whole test. The bermuda greens run firm in August, so the driver you can bomb 330 yards into trouble is worth less here than the 8-iron you can stuff from 160.
The scoring history says the same thing the architecture does. Approach play and putting carry more of the separation at this venue than anything off the tee, and the two of them are close to even, which is unusual and important. Most weeks one skill dominates and you build around it. Here you need a player who can hit the number from the fairway and then convert on bermuda, and if he is missing one half of that pair he tends to finish 30th no matter how good the other half looks.
So I am filtering on approach and putting, in that order, and treating driving as accuracy rather than distance. One more thing to hold all week: there is no cut. Floor does not come from surviving Friday, because everyone survives Friday. It comes from finish position across four rounds, which means a player who grinds out four scores in the 60s is worth more to a cash lineup than a boom-bust type who cards 65-74-65-74 and lands 40th.
Weather to Watch
Round 1 | Hot and breezy, 85-99F | Wind: 10-12 mph, gusts 26
Thursday is the windiest day of the week and the morning is where the teeth are, with gusts touching 26 mph before the air settles after lunch. Rain is not a factor at 1 to 3%.
Round 2 | Building heat, 84-104F | Wind: 8-9 mph, gusts 23
Sustained wind backs off to single digits across all four Friday windows. The story shifts to temperature, because the last groups out will be playing in 104 degrees.
Round 4 | Brutal heat, 88-107F | Wind: 7-8 mph, gusts 18
Sunday is the calmest day and by a distance the hottest, peaking at 107 degrees for the closing groups. Nobody dodges that oven, which makes it a scoring-condition story instead of a roster one.
Line the two draws up and there is barely anything to collect. Thursday's morning wave sees about one extra mile per hour of sustained wind, Friday's morning gives back a third of that, and across 36 holes the whole thing lands short of a quarter of a stroke. The split that does look different is gusts against heat: the morning draw plays in air gusting past 22 mph but 15 degrees cooler, the afternoon draw gets calmer conditions and triple-digit temperatures. Neither one moves a lineup. Tie-breaker between two players I like the same, nothing more.
Course History
1. Justin Rose ($8,000; best finishes: Win 2025, 20th 2023)
He is the defending champion and nobody is pricing him like it. Rose went 6 under to win here twelve months ago on the strength of a week where he gained better than three strokes per round, and his last four starts have him back on the right side of the field average after a longer stretch that was poor. I want the venue record more than I want the season-long profile, and at $8,000 I do not have to choose.
2. Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200; best finishes: 4th 2025, 4th 2023)
Two trips to Southwind, two fourth-place finishes, both earned by gaining better than two strokes per round on the field. That is not a fluke pattern, it is a player whose whole game is built for a course where the fairway is 26 yards wide and the putt is the last thing standing between you and a number. His short game ranks among the three best in this field at 0.52 gained around the green.
3. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000; best finishes: Win 2024, 16th 2023)
The 2024 trophy is his, and unlike a lot of old wins this one came with a monster underneath it, better than three strokes gained per round for the week. Three appearances here, three finishes inside 17th, which for a player with his variance counts as a stable file. His last four starts have him near the top of this field in current form.
The Board
Scheffler ($13,500, a tier of his own)
Scottie Scheffler ($13,500) sits $2,000 clear of the next name on the board, which is its own kind of decision. The résumé at Southwind is third last year and fourth the year before, the first of those on nearly three strokes gained per round, and he is the only player in this field grading top-ten in both approach and putting for the season. He will also be the most popular name on the slate by a wide margin, so you are not buying an edge here, you are buying the highest floor available at full retail. In cash he is close to mandatory. In tournaments the question is whether $13,500 forces too much compromise below, and on a no-cut slate with a playable basement, I think it does not.
Elite ($9,000-$11,500)
Rory McIlroy ($11,500) is the other name the room will pile onto, and the reason is a third-place finish here in 2023 plus a season that reads 0.92 gained off the tee. I am less sure than the field is. Southwind neutralizes his biggest weapon, his approach number sits at 0.40 while four players priced below him clear 0.70, and only two career appearances at this venue means the course record is thin. He is the best golfer in the bucket. He is not the best fit in the bucket, and at this price and this ownership that distinction costs you.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,900) owns the best approach season of anyone teeing it up, at 0.85 gained per round across 58 measured rounds, and his last four starts add up to nearly two and a half strokes gained per round. The catch is Southwind itself, where three visits have produced nothing better than a 29th average finish and a negative strokes-gained number. I am buying the skill over the file. Precision courses are where he does his best work, with five top-tens in 14 career starts on that profile, and this is the tightest setup he will see for a month. Cash-leaning.
Collin Morikawa ($9,300) carries the second-best approach season on the slate at 0.84, and I keep waiting for the market to price it and it never quite does. His Southwind record is quiet, a 21st average across three trips, and the putter has been dead neutral at 0.04, which is the whole risk. But a course that pays approach at its highest weight of the year, handed to the second-best iron player in the field at a price below four men he outranks with a 7-iron, is the kind of mismatch I take. GPP-leaning given the flat stick.
Ludvig Åberg ($9,100) is the value play of this bucket and nothing else in it is close. Ninth here last year on better than a stroke gained per round, 0.56 on approach for the season, and 12 starts on precision setups producing an average finish of 14th. He is the cheapest of the nine-thousands and the field will treat him as the afterthought of the tier because his last four starts have been fine rather than loud. FanDuel disagrees with that read, and I am siding with FanDuel.
High ($8,000-$8,900)
Justin Rose ($8,000) already made his case upstairs, so this is about where he lands on a roster. He is the cheapest name in the bucket, he owns the most recent trophy at this venue, and the field is going to look at a season strokes-gained figure of negative 0.38 across his last 24 rounds and move on. That is the trade I want at the bottom of the eights, because the four-start window is positive and it is the window that matters. GPP-leaning, and my favorite salary-to-résumé gap on the slate.
Patrick Cantlay ($8,800) has burned people in big moments and I understand the flinch. Look at what Southwind actually gives him: second in 2023, 13th in 2024, 11th in 2025, three appearances and never outside the top 13, with 1.65 strokes gained per round on average. Add 0.48 on approach and an 87.3% bogey-avoidance rate that ranks near the top of this field, and you have the tidiest four-round profile in the bucket. On a no-cut slate that pays finish position, boring is the point. Cash-leaning.
Justin Thomas ($8,100) is the salary-versus-odds mismatch I keep circling back to. FanDuel has him at the same number as Fitzpatrick and Åberg, both of whom cost more than $900 extra, and JT is the only one of the three the field is not excited about. The concession is real: his approach number is a flat negative 0.04 this season, which on this course is the wrong stat to be missing. His short game covers some of it at 0.54 gained, and his last four starts sit on the right side of the field. GPP-leaning, and the price is doing you a favor.
Wyndham Clark ($8,500) is where I get off. Seventh here in 2024, sure, but his overall Southwind file still grades out at negative 0.60 per round despite that one good week, his last four starts have fallen off a hot eight-start stretch, and FanDuel prices him longer than a player $1,100 cheaper. When the board and the course file agree against a popular price point, I listen. Fade.
Mid ($7,000-$7,900)
Akshay Bhatia ($7,300) is the best value on this slate and nothing else is close. Run the two filters that matter this week and only Scheffler beats his combination of 0.38 on approach and 0.66 with the putter, and Scheffler costs $6,200 more. Bhatia has proven the venue works too, with a seventh here last year and a 14th the year before, both on better than a stroke gained per round. His last four starts have been quiet, which explains the $7,300 and explains why the field will pass. Both cash and GPP.
Tom Kim ($7,900) arrives with the hottest four-start window of anybody in Memphis at better than three strokes gained per round, and a 0.70 approach season that ranks fifth in the field. He has made every cut in his last eight tournaments. The pushback is Southwind, where two trips produced a 42nd average finish and negative strokes gained, and I am writing that off as a two-week sample against a player whose game has moved since. Cash-leaning.
Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,500) is on one of the better runs on the board, better than two strokes gained per round over his last four starts, and FanDuel already knows it, pricing him alongside players $800 more expensive. His approach number is the worry at 0.04 for the season, so the recent form is doing all the lifting. That is exactly the profile the field underrates in a bucket this crowded. GPP.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,600) finished tenth here last August while gaining better than a stroke per round, and his 0.58 approach season is eighth-best among the 69. He has made every cut across his last eight tournaments, which on a no-cut week reads as four-round dependability rather than survival. One of the better floor plays in the range, and the room will not notice.
Cheap (under $7,000)
Eric Cole ($6,600) grades out at 0.54 on the greens, among the best marks in this field, and 0.40 around the green, and his 18th-place finish here in 2024 says the course is fine. His approach number is a weak 0.11 and his last four starts have been poor, which is why he is priced where he is. Two of the three things I want are already in the bag at $6,600. Cash punt.
Corey Conners ($6,700) is the cleanest iron-and-accuracy fit available in the basement, with 0.37 on approach and a sixth-place finish here back in 2023. His putter has cost him a quarter stroke per round this season and it is the reason he is not $7,500. Cash-leaning, because this price range rarely offers this profile.
Max Homa ($6,400) is the pure contrarian click of the week. He was 11th at Southwind in 2023, his last four starts have crept back above the field line after a long stretch of nothing, and he will be one of the two or three least-rostered names on the slate. His season numbers argue against him. So does $6,400, which is the only reason he is affordable. Small tournament stake and no illusions.
Harry Hall ($6,400) does his damage with the putter at 0.37 and the short game at 0.33, exactly the second half of my filter, and he will go overlooked at one of the lowest ownership levels on the board. His approach play is a real problem at negative 0.12. One skill and one price, which is the whole reason this bucket exists.
Bets
To Win
Ludvig Åberg (+2700) is my pick to win and I feel about as good as I get on an outright at this number. The board has him behind four players he outperformed at this venue last year, his 0.56 approach season fits the highest-weighted skill of the week, and 12 starts on precision setups have produced an average finish of 14th. What I want from an outright is a good player priced on his last month rather than his profile, and that is what happened here.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) won this tournament in 2024 and has never finished outside the top 17 in three trips. Add the best current form in the top of this field and a short game at 0.43 that handles the run-offs around these greens, and +2500 for a former champion in this shape reads short of where it should be.
Rory McIlroy (+1300) gets the smaller stake, purely because the price is skinny and the course fit is imperfect. The talent gap is still the talent gap, and a third-place finish here in 2023 proves it plays. I would not build a card around him. I also would not leave him off one.
Long Shots
Akshay Bhatia (+6000) is the ticket I like most on this whole page. Seventh here last August, 14th the year before, and the best approach-plus-putting combination in the field outside of the man at the top of the board. At 60 to 1 you are being paid like he has never seen the place.
Rickie Fowler (+6000) took sixth at Southwind last year and his last four starts have been the best golf he has played since spring. The full-season numbers do not support a win and they do not need to at this number, because the venue already showed us the ceiling exists.
Kurt Kitayama (+6500) finished tenth here in August and owns the eighth-best approach season in a 69-man playoff field. He has never been a putter and that is likely what stops him. At 65 to 1 you are already paid for it.
Final Thoughts
My cash core starts with Scheffler and Cantlay, which is the least original sentence I will write all week and also the correct one. Scheffler is the highest floor in golf at a venue where he has finished third and fourth in consecutive years, and Cantlay has three Southwind trips and never finished outside the top 13. Bhatia at $7,300 and Kitayama at $7,600 pay for the top, both of them positive on approach and putting with top-ten finishes here in the last two years. Cole or Conners fills the last spot in the basement. That five-name spine covers the two skills this course actually rewards, and in a no-cut format where the whole scoring race is finish position, consistency across four rounds is the entire game.
Tournaments need a different shape. The field is going to concentrate hard on Scheffler and McIlroy at the top and then again on the comfortable names in the eights, so my separation comes from three places: Åberg as the cheapest man in the elite tier with the best fit in it, Justin Rose as a defending champion the room has written off on season-long numbers, and Morikawa as the second-best iron player alive at a price four inferior ball-strikers are already above. Down low I want Homa and Hall, both of whom will go nearly unrostered. I am fading Wyndham Clark, a popular price point whose course file and recent play both argue against it.
One thing to watch before lock. Tee times will confirm the draw, and while I do not think the wave gap is worth building around, Thursday morning does carry gusts past 22 mph while the afternoon plays calmer and 15 degrees hotter. If you have two players you cannot separate on merit, that is your tie-breaker, and it should not be doing more work than that.