MLB Matchup Tool

MLB pitcher matchup breakdown

A full read on a single game: how each hitter has fared against this pitcher's handedness and pitch mix, what the park does to both lineups, and what the bullpens behind the starters look like.

Reading a matchup without leaning on batter versus pitcher history

The most common mistake is trusting a hitter's career line against a specific pitcher. Those samples are almost always tiny, often fewer than twenty plate appearances spread across several seasons in which both players changed, and they predict essentially nothing. A hitter who is 6 for 12 against someone is not a good matchup, he is a small number.

Handedness splits are the version of that idea that actually holds up, because the samples are large enough to mean something. A pitcher's results against left-handed and right-handed hitters are stable, and so is a hitter's performance against each hand.

Pitch mix adds the next layer. A hitter who struggles badly against high-velocity fastballs facing a pitcher who throws them most of the time is a real matchup edge, and unlike head to head history it is built on hundreds of pitches rather than a dozen at bats.

Why the bullpen belongs in a matchup read

Starters cover a shrinking share of a game, so a matchup that stops at the starting pitcher is describing maybe five innings of a nine inning event. The arms behind him decide the rest, and a strong starter in front of an exhausted bullpen is a very different bet than the same starter with a rested one.

This matters most for run totals and for late-game team totals, which is exactly where the market is slowest to adjust for bullpen state.

Frequently asked questions