Coaching & Coordinator Changes

NFL coaching and coordinator changes

Every head coach and coordinator change, with what it is likely to mean for the players already on the roster. New playcaller tendencies, pass rate, pace and scheme fit, organised so you can see which offences are about to look different.

Why a new playcaller moves fantasy value more than a new player

Pass rate is the single largest lever in fantasy football and it is set by the coaching staff, not the roster. A move from one of the run-heaviest offences to one of the pass-heaviest can add well over a hundred pass attempts across a season, and that volume has to land on somebody already on the team.

Pace compounds it. An offence that snaps the ball faster runs more plays, and more plays means more of everything for everyone in that offence. Two teams with identical pass rates can produce very different fantasy totals if one of them plays ten more snaps a game.

Scheme decides who benefits. A coordinator who uses the tight end heavily makes a tight end a starter who was not one last year. A system that funnels targets to the slot changes which of the receivers on the roster is worth drafting, and that is often not the one with the biggest name.

Using coaching changes in drafts and best ball

The market is slow to reprice coaching changes, because the evidence for them does not exist yet in any stat line. Players on teams with a new playcaller are usually priced on last season's usage, which is exactly the usage the new staff is about to change.

Be careful about assuming a coordinator brings his old numbers with him. Tendencies travel with a coach, but they get reshaped by the roster he inherits and by the head coach above him. Treat prior-team pass rates as a direction rather than a forecast.

Frequently asked questions