Four games make up Friday's main slate, so we stack heavier than usual and pick a goalie that fits the stack. Washington at Carolina and Anaheim at Vegas share the top total at 6.5, and Vegas carries the biggest team total on the board at 3.66 goals. Our GPP builds start with the Dallas top power play (DAL PP1). In cash we trust Carter Hart.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ CAR | 6.5 | CAR -146 | WSH 3.04, CAR 3.46 | WSH season opener, CAR on two days of rest |
| BOS @ WPG | 5.5 | WPG -120 | BOS 2.69, WPG 2.81 | BOS PP faces the 29th ranked PK |
| STL @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -182 | STL 2.42, DAL 3.08 | Opener for both, DAL PP ranked 2nd |
| ANA @ VGK | 6.5 | VGK -196 | ANA 2.84, VGK 3.66 | VGK PP 5th vs ANA PK 27th |
No team on the main slate plays on a back-to-back. Dallas has the best special teams spot: last season's 2nd ranked power play against a St. Louis penalty kill that ranked 21st. Boston against Winnipeg's 29th ranked kill comes next.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis (CAR, C) | Injured reserve (shoulder) | 9 | Andrei Svechnikov ($6,100), Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,800), Eric Robinson ($2,800) |
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured reserve (hip) | 8 | Cutter Gauthier ($6,800), Leo Carlsson ($6,200), Beckett Sennecke ($5,100) |
| Matt Duchene (DAL, C) | Injured reserve (lower body) | 7 | Justin Hryckowian ($3,200), Jason Robertson ($7,600), Wyatt Johnston ($6,400) |
| Rasmus Sandin (WSH, D) | Injured reserve (knee) | 6 | Jakob Chychrun ($6,200), Matt Roy ($3,200), Vincent Desharnais ($2,500) |
| Connor Hellebuyck (WPG, G) | Suspended | 6 | Stuart Skinner ($7,600), expected to start, not yet confirmed |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Carter Hart (VGK, $8,100), cash
Hart is expected to start but is not confirmed yet. Vegas is the biggest favorite on the slate at -196, and he wins 63.4% of the time in our numbers. He projects for 26.9 saves against an Anaheim team implied for 2.84 goals, and his floor is the highest of any goalie tonight. If Vegas has not named him by warmups, move off him.
Logan Thompson (WSH, $7,400), GPP
Washington confirmed Thompson for its season opener in Carolina. He projects for 28.0 saves, the most on the slate, and his 11.8% chance at 35 or more saves also leads every goalie. Carolina drove 58.6% of 5v5 shot attempts in last season's share, so the volume is there. The risk is the 3.46 goals the Hurricanes are implied for, and he wins only 43.1% of the time in our numbers. Most of the field will pass for that reason, and we like him more for it.
Skip Jake Oettinger ($8,300). He was in the starter's crease at the Stars morning skate and is expected to start, but he projects for 19.5 saves against a St. Louis team implied for 2.42 goals, with almost no path to 35 saves. At the top goalie price you need the saves as well as the win.
Every goalie's status, updated through the day: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen
DAL PP1 carries the highest 90th percentile outcome of any stack on the slate at 92.7 points, and the correlation adds 7.9 of that. Add Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen for the full five-man unit. Dallas is implied for 3.08 goals against Joel Hofer, who is expected to start for St. Louis. The power play ranked 2nd last season and draws a penalty kill that ranked 21st. Even strength is the weak spot: the Robertson line sat at 48.2% of 5v5 shot attempts in last season's share, and the Elo unit matchup grades even. It will be popular. Use it as the GPP core and get different elsewhere.
VGK PP1: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone
Vegas owns the best matchup of the night. Its forwards and its defense both grade as a SMASH against Anaheim in our NHL Elo ratings, the Eichel line took 53.8% of 5v5 shot attempts in last season's share, and the team total of 3.66 leads the slate. Lukas Dostal is expected to start for the Ducks behind a penalty kill that ranked 27th. This is the chalk stack. It fits cash builds next to Hart, but in large fields the price and the crowd cut into the payoff.
WPG PP1: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti
This is the contrarian stack. WPG PP1 carries the biggest correlation lift on the slate at 9.9 points, and its 90th percentile of 87.8 trails only Dallas and Vegas. Winnipeg is implied for 2.81 goals against Jeremy Swayman, who is expected to start but is not confirmed. The top line held 50.6% of 5v5 shot attempts in last season's share, per our NHL Corsi tool. Boston's penalty kill ranked 18th, so the case for Winnipeg rests on price and a thin crowd. Few rosters will touch it.
Every line and power play unit: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Value Stack
DAL PP2: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Sam Steel ($9,300 total)
The Dallas second unit is the cheapest way into the slate's best power play spot. With Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell on the point, the five-man unit has a 90th percentile of 55.0, above the Vegas second line. At $9,300 for the three forwards, it pays for an expensive goalie or a second full stack.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: VGK PP1. Pivot: WPG PP1. The Jets unit costs $30,000 against $32,400 for Vegas, its 90th percentile sits within 1.3 points, and it carries far less of the field.
Chalk goalie: Carter Hart. Pivot: Logan Thompson. Hart is the most popular goalie on the slate. Thompson costs $700 less, is confirmed, and leads the slate in projected saves.
Skaters
Centers
Sebastian Aho ($6,300): cash. He centers Carolina's top line and runs on the first power play for a projected 20 minutes. The Aho line drove 59.7% of 5v5 shot attempts in last season's share, the best of any forward line on this slate, and Carolina is implied for 3.46 goals at home.
Tomas Hertl ($5,100): GPP. Hertl skates on the Vegas third line but stays on the first power play with the top guns. His third line still took 56.3% of shot attempts last season, and Anaheim's penalty kill ranked 27th. Almost nobody will play him.
Wingers
Jackson Blake ($5,000): cash. He plays on Carolina's second line and the first power play with a projected 18 minutes. His floor of 3 points matches Marner's for $2,100 less.
David Pastrnak ($8,000): GPP. Pastrnak runs on Boston's top line and first power play and projects for 3.2 shots, with a 20.3% chance at five or more. The Boston power play draws a Winnipeg kill that ranked 29th last season. How an $8,000 winger with a 24-point ceiling stays this low-owned is a mystery, but we will take it.
Defensemen
Shea Theodore ($5,400): cash. He quarterbacks the Vegas first power play and projects for 25.5 minutes on the top pair. His floor of 4.1 points ties for the best at the position, and he has a 31% chance at three blocked shots on top of it.
Jakob Chychrun ($6,200): GPP. With Rasmus Sandin on injured reserve, Chychrun runs Washington's first power play and projects for 22.2 minutes. His 19.0-point ceiling sits near the top of the position. The catch is a Washington power play that ranked 29th last season, so most of the field will save salary here.
Value Plays
Justin Hryckowian (DAL W, $3,200): Matt Duchene's injury moved him onto the Dallas top line for a projected 16.7 minutes. That is top-line work at a punt price.
Ilya Protas (WSH C, $2,900): third-line center with a spot on the second power play. He projects for the best points per dollar of any center on the slate.
Viggo Björck (WPG C, $3,500): second-line center and PP2 for Winnipeg, with 16.7 projected minutes and 2.0 shots. He gives you a cheap piece of the contrarian game.
Blocks Floor
Martin Fehervary (WSH D, $3,100): he plays on the third pair and on neither power play, but he projects for 2.1 blocked shots and a 37% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best of any defenseman tonight. Use him in cash.
Brayden McNabb (VGK D, $3,400): the stay-at-home partner on the Vegas top pair, with no power play time. He projects for 2.0 blocks and a 33% chance at the bonus.
Props to Watch
Taylor Hall over 1.5 shots on goal (-152). We have him at 2.19 shots, the biggest gap to a main line on the slate.
Alex Killorn over 1.5 shots on goal (-128). He projects for 1.98 shots, and this is the best price of the group.
Jordan Kyrou under 2.5 shots on goal (-196). We project 1.94 shots, more than half a shot under the line.
Treat each one as a lean and keep the stake small.
Before Lock
- Only Thompson and Brandon Bussi are confirmed. Check Hart, Swayman, Skinner, Oettinger, Hofer and Dostal before lock.
- Skinner and Oettinger were in the starter's crease at the morning skate, which is a good sign but not a confirmation.
- Watch the Dallas line rushes. Duchene's injury moved Hryckowian to the top line, and that can change.
- A.J. Greer (ANA) is day to day. If he sits, the Anaheim top line changes.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with Hart, Aho, Blake and Theodore, with Fehervary as the floor play on defense. In GPP, take DAL PP1 with Thompson in net and Winnipeg as the secondary stack, which keeps every skater off Thompson's opponent.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup only has to beat about half the field, so it chases floor: confirmed goalies on favored teams, top-line and PP1 minutes, and shots and blocks that score on most nights. A GPP lineup has to beat almost everyone, so it chases ceiling with full line or power play stacks, a goalie who can steal a big save total, and some players the field ignores. Tonight that means Hart in cash and Thompson with DAL PP1 in GPP.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams name their starter after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups just before puck drop. A goalie who leaves the morning skate first is often the starter, but that is a hint, not a confirmation. On this slate only two goalies are confirmed so far, so check every status before lock.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.