NHL Elo Ratings
Opponent adjusted Elo ratings for every NHL team, skater and goalie, with tonight's Elo win odds against the market and the best DFS line matchups.
Preseason ratings: last season's ratings pulled toward 1500. They update after every game night.
Tonight's Games
CAR
FLA
TOR
MTL
BOS
NYR
EDM
VAN
VGK
CHIBest Matchups
| # | Matchup | Pos | Gap | Tag | Top rated players tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM Defense vs VAN | D | +62 | SMASH | Evan Bouchard (1640), Jake Walman (1561), Mattias Ekholm (1545) |
| 2 | EDM Forwards vs VAN | F | +50 | SMASH | Connor McDavid (1677), Leon Draisaitl (1656), Zach Hyman (1567) |
| 3 | CAR Defense vs FLA | D | +39 | SMASH | Shayne Gostisbehere (1575), Sean Walker (1560), Jaccob Slavin (1537) |
| 4 | VGK Forwards vs CHI | F | +34 | SMASH | Jack Eichel (1623), Mitch Marner (1594), Mark Stone (1585) |
| 5 | MTL Forwards vs TOR | F | +31 | SMASH | Cole Caufield (1615), Nick Suzuki (1611), Juraj Slafkovský (1586) |
| 6 | CAR Forwards vs FLA | F | +28 | EVEN | Nikolaj Ehlers (1599), Andrei Svechnikov (1591), Sebastian Aho (1586) |
| 7 | MTL Defense vs TOR | D | +26 | EVEN | Lane Hutson (1628), Noah Dobson (1586), Mike Matheson (1555) |
| 8 | VGK Defense vs CHI | D | +14 | EVEN | Shea Theodore (1583), Rasmus Andersson (1580), Brayden McNabb (1551) |
| 9 | BOS Forwards vs NYR | F | +7 | EVEN | David Pastrnak (1655), Morgan Geekie (1565), Pavel Zacha (1550) |
| 10 | TOR Forwards vs MTL | F | -2 | EVEN | Auston Matthews (1660), William Nylander (1605), Kirill Marchenko (1593) |
| 11 | BOS Defense vs NYR | D | -4 | EVEN | Hampus Lindholm (1521), Mason Lohrei (1489), Jonathan Aspirot (1480) |
| 12 | NYR Forwards vs BOS | F | -7 | EVEN | Mika Zibanejad (1605), Pavel Dorofeyev (1583), J.T. Miller (1570) |
| 13 | NYR Defense vs BOS | D | -15 | EVEN | Adam Fox (1605), Sean Durzi (1539), Vladislav Gavrikov (1528) |
| 14 | FLA Forwards vs CAR | F | -16 | EVEN | Brady Tkachuk (1619), Sam Reinhart (1595), Sam Bennett (1590) |
| 15 | TOR Defense vs MTL | D | -23 | EVEN | Darren Raddysh (1615), Morgan Rielly (1545), Jake McCabe (1544) |
| 16 | VAN Forwards vs EDM | F | -26 | EVEN | Jake DeBrusk (1560), Elias Pettersson (1557), Brock Boeser (1540) |
| 17 | VAN Defense vs EDM | D | -48 | TOUGH | Filip Hronek (1557), Jamieson Oleksiak (1467), Tom Willander (1459) |
| 18 | CHI Forwards vs VGK | F | -58 | TOUGH | Patrick Kane (1585), Frank Nazar (1539), Tyler Bertuzzi (1533) |
| 19 | CHI Defense vs VGK | D | -61 | TOUGH | Bowen Byram (1523), Sam Rinzel (1507), Ian Cole (1502) |
| 20 | FLA Defense vs CAR | D | -65 | TOUGH | Seth Jones (1546), Gustav Forsling (1527), Aaron Ekblad (1516) |
Team Elo
| # | Team | Power | Off F | Off D | Def vs F | Def vs D | Off vs G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1576 | 1537 | 1515 | 1518 | 1516 | 1507 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche | 1566 | 1524 | 1539 | 1518 | 1517 | 1486 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning | 1545 | 1508 | 1504 | 1525 | 1513 | 1510 |
| 4 |  Buffalo Sabres | 1539 | 1509 | 1525 | 1507 | 1512 | 1518 |
| 5 |  Dallas Stars | 1533 | 1505 | 1506 | 1518 | 1511 | 1531 |
| 6 | Vegas Golden Knights | 1529 | 1520 | 1513 | 1519 | 1519 | 1512 |
| 7 | Montreal Canadiens | 1529 | 1503 | 1524 | 1503 | 1508 | 1532 |
| 8 |  Minnesota Wild | 1526 | 1526 | 1518 | 1506 | 1496 | 1510 |
| 9 |  Ottawa Senators | 1521 | 1503 | 1506 | 1519 | 1520 | 1500 |
| 10 |  Washington Capitals | 1521 | 1495 | 1539 | 1510 | 1513 | 1504 |
22 more players on today's board
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Player Elo Leaders
Forwards
| # | Player | Team | Elo | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | COL | 1679 | 179 |
| 2 | Connor McDavid | EDM | 1677 | 177 |
| 3 | Nikita Kucherov | TBL | 1664 | 166 |
| 4 | Auston Matthews | TOR | 1660 | 140 |
| 5 | Jack Hughes | NJD | 1657 | 123 |
Defense
| # | Player | Team | Elo | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Werenski | CBJ | 1674 | 156 |
| 2 | Rasmus Dahlin | BUF | 1649 | 163 |
| 3 | Evan Bouchard | EDM | 1640 | 192 |
| 4 | Moritz Seider | DET | 1638 | 164 |
| 5 | Quinn Hughes | MIN | 1635 | 153 |
Goalies
| # | Player | Team | Elo | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Thompson | WSH | 1531 | 108 |
| 2 | Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | 1530 | 45 |
| 3 | Scott Wedgewood | COL | 1529 | 73 |
| 4 | Jet Greaves | CBJ | 1525 | 64 |
| 5 | Jakub Dobes | MTL | 1524 | 77 |
Track Record
| Season | Level | Pos | Elo corr | Running avg corr | Brier | Coin flip | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20252026 | goalie | G | 0.079 | 0.039 | - | - | 2721 |
| 20252026 | player | D | 0.386 | 0.375 | - | - | 16802 |
| 20252026 | player | F | 0.424 | 0.416 | - | - | 33235 |
| 20252026 | team | D | 0.236 | 0.197 | - | - | 2788 |
| 20252026 | team | F | 0.151 | 0.098 | - | - | 2788 |
| 20252026 | win | ALL | 0.112 | - | 0.247 | 0.250 | 1394 |
| 20242025 | goalie | G | 0.069 | 0.018 | - | - | 2658 |
| 20242025 | player | D | 0.359 | 0.347 | - | - | 16604 |
| 20242025 | player | F | 0.406 | 0.399 | - | - | 32792 |
| 20242025 | team | D | 0.169 | 0.114 | - | - | 2764 |
| 20242025 | team | F | 0.127 | 0.053 | - | - | 2764 |
| 20242025 | win | ALL | 0.150 | - | 0.241 | 0.250 | 1398 |
Team units beat a running average in both seasons. Skater ratings roughly tie it, so they are a ranking, not a projection. The win model is weaker than the betting market.
NHL Elo ratings, opponent adjusted
Every rating starts at 1500 and moves after each game by how much the result beat what the ratings expected. A team that wins 5-1 against a strong opponent moves more than one that wins 5-1 against a weak one, and a skater who produces against a strong defense moves more than one who does it against a weak defense.
The model rates team offenses and team defenses separately for forwards and defensemen, rates every skater and goalie, and runs a separate team win Elo with home ice worth 30 points and a goal-margin multiplier. It was built from every 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular season and playoff game: 117,162 player, unit and goalie matchups plus 2,792 games.
Ratings carry across seasons but are pulled toward 1500 each offseason. Skaters and goalies keep 75 percent of their rating, team units keep 60 percent, and the win Elo keeps 70 percent. That keeps a rating from going stale when rosters and coaching staffs turn over.
Team unit Elo beat a running average in both seasons. Skater Elo roughly ties it, so the skater ratings are a ranking, not a projection. The defense Elo tied raw fantasy points allowed once the opponent's offense was accounted for. The win Elo had a 0.247 Brier score in 2025-26 against 0.250 for a coin flip, so the betting market is the better number for betting.
It was tested as a projection engine input and added no accuracy, so the NHL projections do not use it. It is a matchup read, not a projection. For lineups use the NHL projections and the optimizer; for who is in net use the starting goalies; for line stacks use the lines and stacks page; for Corsi and shot share use the Corsi stats page; and for shopping the puck line and total across books use the NHL odds comparison.
Frequently asked questions
What is NHL Elo?
An opponent adjusted rating for every NHL team, skater and goalie. Each rating starts at 1500 and moves after each game by how much the result beat what the ratings expected. Team offenses and defenses are rated separately for forwards and defensemen, and a separate team win Elo sets home ice at 30 points.
How is the Elo win probability different from the betting odds?
The Elo home win percentage is the model's own probability from the two team win ratings plus home ice. The market home win percentage is the implied probability from the sportsbook moneyline after removing the vig. When they disagree, the market is the better number: the win Elo had a 0.247 Brier score in 2025-26 against 0.250 for a coin flip, so it is only marginally better than a coin flip and weaker than the market.
What do SMASH and TOUGH mean?
SMASH is a strong offensive spot, TOUGH is a difficult one, and EVEN is a neutral matchup, based on the gap between the attacking unit's offense Elo and the defending unit's defense Elo at that position. A bigger gap is a bigger edge for the offense.
Does BankrollSZN use Elo in its NHL projections?
No. Elo was tested as a projection engine input and added no accuracy, so the NHL projections do not use it. It is a matchup read, not a projection. Use the projections page and the optimizer to set a lineup.
How often do the ratings update?
After every game night, rebuilt from the full game log each morning. During the preseason the ratings are last season's pulled toward 1500 and they update after the first games are played.