Thirteen games gives us a deep pool, so we can run one main stack and fill the rest with a second stack or one-offs. No game total sits above 6.5, but Colorado carries the highest team total at 3.90 implied goals against a St. Louis team on the second night of a back-to-back. We build around the Edmonton power play, which has the best ceiling and the biggest special teams edge on the board. In net, Jesper Wallstedt is the goalie we trust most.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR @ PHI | 5.5 | CAR -132 | CAR 2.87, PHI 2.63 | CAR on a back-to-back after travel |
| UTA @ CBJ | 6.5 | UTA -115 | UTA 3.29, CBJ 3.21 | UTA PP vs 26th ranked PK |
| OTT @ TOR | 6.5 | TOR -114 | OTT 3.22, TOR 3.28 | OTT season opener; TOR PP vs 28th ranked PK |
| SEA @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -205 | SEA 2.81, EDM 3.69 | EDM PP vs 30th ranked PK |
| WSH @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -178 | WSH 2.91, TBL 3.59 | WSH on a back-to-back after travel |
| MTL @ PIT | 6.5 | MTL -126 | MTL 3.35, PIT 3.15 | none |
| CHI @ BUF | 6.5 | BUF -230 | CHI 2.73, BUF 3.77 | none |
| NJD @ NYI | 5.5 | NJD -140 | NJD 2.91, NYI 2.59 | none |
| DAL @ NSH | 6.5 | DAL -128 | DAL 3.36, NSH 3.14 | DAL on a back-to-back after travel |
| BOS @ MIN | 6.5 | MIN -210 | BOS 2.79, MIN 3.71 | BOS on a back-to-back after travel |
| STL @ COL | 6.5 | COL -280 | STL 2.60, COL 3.90 | STL on a back-to-back after travel |
| LAK @ SJS | 6.5 | SJS -114 | LAK 3.22, SJS 3.28 | SJS PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
| CGY @ VAN | 6.5 | VAN -115 | CGY 3.21, VAN 3.29 | CGY PP vs 31st ranked PK |
Every team has played two games or fewer, so the power play and penalty kill ranks above lean on last season. The best special teams spot of the night is Edmonton: the top-ranked power play faces Seattle, whose penalty kill ranked 30th last season.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard (CHI, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Patrick Kane, Anton Frondell, Teuvo Teravainen |
| Seth Jarvis (CAR, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Andrei Svechnikov, Jackson Blake, Eric Robinson |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby, Nick Robertson |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Quinn Hughes, Olli Maatta, Jonas Brodin |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Out | 8 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Max Jones |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Emil Heineman |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Jordan Spence, Nikolas Matinpalo |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Max Jones |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $8,200), cash
Wallstedt is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Minnesota is a -210 favorite, which gives him a 65% win chance, and Boston sits at 2.79 implied goals on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. We project 24.6 saves on 27.2 shots against, and his floor is tied for the best of any goalie tonight. If Minnesota turns to its backup, move off this play. Watch the morning skate.
Dan Vladar (PHI, $7,300), GPP
Vladar is the volume play. Carolina drives the best shot share on the slate (58.5%, mostly last season) and projects for 49.9 five-on-five shot attempts, second only to Colorado, yet the Hurricanes carry just 2.87 implied goals in a 5.5 total. They are also on a back-to-back after travel and play without Seth Jarvis. We project 26.5 saves with a 7.5% chance at 35 or more and a 6.6% shutout chance. He is expected to start, not yet confirmed; if Philadelphia turns to its backup, drop this play.
Fade Mackenzie Blackwood ($8,500). He is the most expensive goalie on the slate and one of the more popular ones, but St. Louis projects for only 22 shots on him, and his ceiling ranks near the bottom of tonight's starters.
Check status changes all afternoon on today's NHL starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton has 3.69 implied goals against Joey Daccord, who is expected to start for Seattle. The Oilers' power play ranked first and Seattle's penalty kill ranked 30th last season, a 15-point edge that is the biggest of the night. At even strength, Edmonton's defensemen get the best unit matchup on the board, a SMASH tag on our NHL Elo ratings. The top line (EDM1) with McDavid, Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin owned a 55.2% shot share last season. Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are out, so McDavid and Draisaitl take on more of the ice time. The full five-man unit, with Kasperi Kapanen, costs $34,400 and carries the top 90th percentile on the slate. The field will find it. We still play it in cash and GPP.
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel
Tampa Bay has 3.59 implied goals, and Washington plays the second night of a back-to-back after travel with Charlie Lindgren confirmed in net. On paper the special teams spot is neutral, so the edge here is the schedule. Guentzel and Hagel skate on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, and that line posted a 56.3% shot share last season, the best mark on the team. Kucherov stays on the top line and runs PP1 with them. The unit costs $33,500 with Brayden Point and John Carlson, and it draws less attention than Edmonton. GPP.
TOR PP1: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Kirill Marchenko
This is the contrarian stack. Toronto has 3.28 implied goals against Linus Ullmark, who is expected to start, and Ottawa plays its first game of the season. Toronto's power play gets an Ottawa penalty kill that ranked 28th last season. The top line (TOR1) with Matthews and Marchenko had a 51.4% shot share last season. Nylander's second line sat at 41.6%, so we want this group for its power play time. The unit costs $33,300 with John Tavares and Darren Raddysh, and it projects as low-owned with a 90th percentile only a few points behind Tampa Bay. GPP only.
Line combinations and power play units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Value Stack
CGY F1: Morgan Frost, Matt Coronato, Matvei Gridin ($13,500 total)
All three Calgary forwards on the top line also skate on PP1, so they score together at even strength and on the man advantage. Vancouver's penalty kill ranked 31st last season, and Kevin Lankinen is expected to start in net for the Canucks. The line's shot share was a soft 47.8% last season (see NHL Corsi), so we want it for ceiling and accept a thin floor. At $13,500, it saves $20,900 against the Edmonton unit and leaves room for a top goalie.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: COL PP1. Pivot: MIN PP1. Colorado's unit with Nathan MacKinnon is the chalk of the night, and with good reason against a tired St. Louis team. Minnesota's PP1 costs $800 more and draws a Boston team on a back-to-back after travel. Its 90th percentile sits at 89.7 to Colorado's 98.3, and far fewer players will roster it.
Chalk goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky. Pivot: Jordan Binnington. Bobrovsky has the best projection and the best chance at 35 or more saves, so expect him in a lot of lineups. Binnington is $1,100 cheaper, confirmed, and faces 33.2 shots in Colorado. His win chance is only 30%, but the save volume gives him a ceiling almost nobody will roster.
Skaters
Centers
Tage Thompson ($8,000): cash
Thompson centers the Buffalo top line with Josh Doan and Josh Norris and runs PP1, at 19.3 minutes a night. Buffalo has 3.77 implied goals, second most on the slate, against a Chicago team without Connor Bedard. We project 3.4 shots, and Jason Zucker's absence keeps more of the offense on his stick.
Macklin Celebrini ($8,300): GPP
Celebrini plays 20.2 minutes on the San Jose top line with Will Smith and runs PP1. He gets a Los Angeles penalty kill that ranked 32nd last season, a 9-point power play edge for the Sharks. His 28.4% chance at five or more shots ranks near the top of the slate, and McDavid's price will keep the field off him.
Wingers
Adrian Kempe ($6,100): cash
Kempe skates on the Los Angeles top line with Artemi Panarin and Quinton Byfield and stays on PP1. He plays 19.5 minutes and projects for 2.8 shots, a safe floor for a $6,100 winger in a 6.5 total.
Jason Robertson ($7,500): GPP
Robertson plays on the second line with Roope Hintz and stays on the top power play, and Dallas's power play ranked second last season. With Matt Duchene out, he projects for 3.4 shots and a 23.8% chance at five or more. Dallas is on a back-to-back after travel. The field will shy away, and that is our leverage.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($8,000): cash
Werenski plays 26.5 minutes on the Columbus top pair with Denton Mateychuk and quarterbacks PP1. His 5.6 floor is the best of any defenseman tonight, and the Columbus defense has a SMASH unit matchup against Utah. He projects for 3.2 shots, which is forward volume from the blue line.
Matthew Schaefer ($6,800): GPP
Schaefer logs 25.3 minutes on the Islanders' top pair with Adam Pelech and runs PP1. He projects for 2.7 shots and 1.5 blocked shots, so he gets to DK points in two ways. The Islanders have only 2.59 implied goals, which is why he will be low-owned.
Value Plays
Liam Ohgren (VAN W, $2,700): Ohgren skates on the Vancouver second line with Brock Boeser and plays on PP1. He has the best projected points per dollar on the slate, and $2,700 for a PP1 winger is a price DraftKings will not leave alone for long.
Alexander Wennberg (SJS C, $3,500): Wennberg centers the San Jose second line, plays 19.2 minutes and stays on PP1 against the worst penalty kill from last season.
Emil Heineman (NYI W, $3,100): With Mathew Barzal out, Heineman moves to the Islanders' top line with Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri. He gets 16 minutes there, and top-line minutes at $3,100 are cheap.
Blocks Floor
Brandt Clarke (LAK D, $5,500): Clarke plays on the second pair with Joel Edmundson and stays on PP1. We project 2.4 blocked shots and a 43.5% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate.
Cam York (PHI D, $3,200): York plays on the second pair with Jamie Drysdale and is on PP1. He projects for 2.0 blocked shots and a 33.7% chance at 3 or more against a Carolina team that shoots a lot. These are cash and floor plays.
Props to Watch
Timo Meier over 2.5 shots on goal (-138): we project 3.0 shots for Meier on the New Jersey top line, half a shot above the line.
Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal (-188): we project 2.2 shots for Malkin on the Pittsburgh second line, so the line sits about three quarters of a shot low.
Shane Pinto over 1.5 shots on goal (-152): we project 2.1 shots for Pinto in Ottawa's first game of the season.
Treat each one as a lean with a small stake. Lines and prices move all day on our NHL odds comparison.
Before Lock
- Only Ilya Sorokin, Jordan Binnington and Charlie Lindgren are confirmed. Wallstedt, Vladar and Bobrovsky are expected to start, and their backups are not named yet. Watch the morning skate for each.
- Carolina, Washington, Dallas, Boston and St. Louis all play the second night of a back-to-back after travel. A tired team often starts its backup goalie, so recheck those creases.
- Jake Sanderson is day-to-day for Ottawa. If he sits, Jordan Spence moves up and the Ottawa PP1 changes.
- Edmonton's lines were last updated yesterday. Watch line rushes to confirm EDM PP1 with Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins out.
Final Thoughts
For cash, we start with Wallstedt in net and build the floor around Thompson, Werenski and Kempe. For GPP, we stack EDM PP1 with Vladar in net and add TOR PP1 as a low-owned second stack. Check the latest NHL DFS projections before lock, then build your own lineups in the NHL DFS optimizer.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack rosters several skaters from a team's first power play unit. They are on the ice together for most of the man advantage, so when one scores, the others often pick up assists. Tonight the Edmonton PP1 has the highest 90th percentile on the slate, and our correlation model adds 11.6 points to its ceiling, more than any other unit.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back has tired legs, especially after travel, and it often starts its backup goalie. Tonight five teams are in that spot: Carolina, Washington, Dallas, Boston and St. Louis. We like goalies and skaters against them. We still play their skaters, just at a lower grade, which is why Jason Robertson makes our GPP list tonight.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.