Four games means a small pool, so we can play heavier stacks and pick a goalie who wins when our skaters score. Two games share the top total of 6.5, and Vegas carries the biggest team total on the board at 3.91 implied goals in Vancouver. We build around the Vegas power play. In net, Carter Hart is the goalie we trust for cash.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA @ NYR | 5.5 | NYR -125 | UTA 2.66, NYR 2.84 | UTA on a back-to-back after travel, third game in four nights |
| FLA @ ANA | 6.5 | FLA -134 | FLA 3.40, ANA 3.10 | FLA PP vs 23rd ranked PK |
| CGY @ SEA | 5.5 | SEA -152 | CGY 2.54, SEA 2.96 | both teams on a back-to-back after travel |
| VGK @ VAN | 6.5 | VGK -285 | VGK 3.91, VAN 2.59 | VGK PP vs 31st ranked PK; VAN on a back-to-back at home |
No team has played more than three games, so the special teams ranks lean on last season. The best spot of the night is Vegas: a power play that ranked 6th faces a Vancouver penalty kill that ranked 31st, a 13.4-point edge.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke |
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Kevin Lankinen |
| Joonas Korpisalo (NYR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Igor Shesterkin |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Carter Hart (VGK, $8,400), cash
Hart is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Vegas is a -285 favorite, which gives him a 71% win chance, the best of the night, and Vancouver sits at 2.59 implied goals on the second night of a back-to-back. The Canucks also project for the fewest five-on-five shot attempts on the slate, so the save count is modest (20.9 projected) but the win and the 9.8% shutout chance carry the floor. He also pairs with our main stack. If Vegas turns to its backup, move off him.
Igor Shesterkin (NYR, $8,000), GPP
Shesterkin is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Utah plays its third game in four nights after travel, yet still projects for 48.0 shot attempts at five-on-five, third most on the slate, against just 2.66 implied goals. That mix gives him a 9.0% shutout chance and 23.1 projected saves. He lines up with the Rangers power play below. If New York turns to its backup, drop this play.
Joey Daccord ($7,900) is the most popular goalie and carries the top projection, but Seattle is on a back-to-back after travel. Back-to-back starts often go to the backup, so keep him out of cash until Seattle confirms him.
Check status changes all afternoon on today's NHL starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
VGK PP1: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore, Tomas Hertl
Vegas has 3.91 implied goals against Kevin Lankinen, who is expected to start with Thatcher Demko on injured reserve. The Vegas forwards draw the best unit matchup of the night, a SMASH tag on our NHL Elo ratings, and the top line (VGK1) of Eichel, Stone and Ivan Barbashev holds a 53.5% shot share, mostly from last season. The power play edge is the 13.4 points from the overview. Vancouver is on the second night of a back-to-back at home. The full unit costs $34,200. It is the chalk stack, and we play it anyway in cash and GPP.
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Seth Jones, Anton Lundell
Florida has 3.40 implied goals against Lukas Dostal, who is expected to start for Anaheim. The Panthers come in on two days of rest. Anaheim's penalty kill ranked 23rd last season. Matthew Tkachuk skates on the second line but stays on PP1, and that line owns a 54.5% shot share, the best mark on the team. Brady Tkachuk projects for 3.2 shots on goal. The unit costs $29,900 and carries the second-best 90th percentile on the slate, with more correlation than Vegas. GPP, and fine in cash.
NYR PP1: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Dorofeyev, Alexis Lafreniere, Adam Fox, J.T. Miller
Our contrarian stack. New York has 2.84 implied goals against Karel Vejmelka, who is expected to start. The Rangers' power play ranked 3rd, Utah's penalty kill ranked 15th, and Utah is on its third game in four nights after travel. Dorofeyev plays on the second line with Miller and both run PP1, and that line has a 50.9% shot share. The unit costs $27,000 and draws a fraction of the attention on Vegas. GPP, with Shesterkin in net.
Check the units before lock on NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks.
Value Stack
SEA F1: Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, Kaapo Kakko ($12,700 total)
The Seattle top line (SEA1) has a 90th percentile in the top half of the slate's stacks for well under half the price of the Vegas power play. Beniers and Kakko also run PP1 and McCann plays PP2, so the line has power play time on top of even strength minutes. The line's shot share is weak at 47.5%, but Calgary is also on a back-to-back after travel. It saves $21,500 against the Vegas unit, which pays for an expensive goalie and a second stack.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: VGK PP1. Pivot: ANA PP1. The Anaheim unit costs $29,300 and owns the best 90th percentile on the board at 86.1, with more correlation than Vegas, and the Ducks' defense draws a SMASH matchup. Its power play ranked 29th, which is why the field looks elsewhere.
Chalk goalie: Joey Daccord. Pivot: Igor Shesterkin. He costs $100 more and draws less ownership, and New York is not on a back-to-back while Utah is.
Skaters
Centers
Sam Bennett ($5,900): cash
Bennett centers the Florida second line with Matthew Tkachuk, plays PP2 and projects for 18.7 minutes. That line drives the best shot share on the team, and he projects for 2.5 shots on goal. His floor matches Zibanejad's at $300 less.
Leo Carlsson ($6,600): GPP
With Troy Terry on injured reserve, Carlsson centers the Anaheim top line and stays on PP1 for 18.7 minutes a night. Terry's absence is not yet in his teammates' season averages, so the extra minutes are new work. His ceiling of 20.8 ranks second among centers behind Eichel, and the field pays more attention to the Vegas and Florida centers.
Wingers
Cutter Gauthier ($7,300): cash
Gauthier plays on the Anaheim top line and PP1, and he projects for 3.3 shots on goal, the most of any skater tonight. He also has the best chance on the slate at 5 or more shots, which is a cash floor by itself. Terry's absence keeps the PP1 role his.
Carter Verhaeghe ($6,100): GPP
Verhaeghe skates on the Florida second line and plays PP2 for 18.5 minutes. He is one of the least popular top-six wingers on the slate. He pairs with Bennett as a cheap mini-stack from the best shot share line on the team.
Defensemen
Jackson LaCombe ($5,100): cash
LaCombe plays on the Anaheim top pair and runs PP1 for 24.6 minutes, second most of any defenseman on the slate. The Ducks' defense draws a SMASH tag against Florida. He adds 1.4 projected blocked shots to the floor.
Brandon Montour ($5,200): GPP
At even strength Montour sits on the second pair, but he runs Seattle's PP1. He projects for 2.7 shots on goal, the most of any defenseman tonight, with a 14% chance at 5 or more. Seattle is on a back-to-back after travel, so check the morning skate.
Value Plays
A.J. Greer (ANA W, $3,000): Greer rides the Anaheim top line with Carlsson and Gauthier and plays PP2. He projects for 15.6 minutes, which is a lot of top-line time for the minimum tier.
Gabe Perreault (NYR W, $3,300): Perreault skates on the Rangers' top line with Zibanejad and Lafreniere and plays PP2. He projects for 7.1 points at $3,300.
Zayne Parekh (CGY D, $3,400): Parekh plays on the third pair but runs Calgary's PP1, and he projects for 18.9 minutes. That PP1 role is how a $3,400 defenseman gets to 1.6 shots on goal.
Blocks Floor
Zach Whitecloud (CGY D, $2,800): Whitecloud projects for 1.9 blocked shots with a 28.6% chance at 3 or more, one of the best marks on the slate. He plays on the second pair with Kevin Bahl and does not play on a power play unit. How he is still priced at $2,800 is a mystery. Cash and floor play only.
Adam Larsson (SEA D, $3,300): Larsson plays on the Seattle top pair with Vince Dunn and does not play on a power play unit. He projects for 1.7 blocked shots with a 25.7% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Vince Dunn over 1.5 shots on goal (-182): we project 2.12 shots, the biggest gap above a line on the slate.
Matvei Gridin over 1.5 shots on goal (-178): he projects for 2.11 shots on the Calgary top line and PP1.
Mikael Backlund over 1.5 shots on goal (-148): the projection is 2.03, and this is the best price of the three.
Each prop is a lean, not a lock, so keep the stake small. More lines on the NHL odds comparison.
Before Lock
- Our feed lists every goalie as expected to start, not yet confirmed. Check Hart, Shesterkin and Daccord first. The feed does not name the backups yet, so watch for a switch.
- Utah, Calgary and Seattle are on a back-to-back after travel, and Vancouver is on a back-to-back at home. Back-to-back goalies are the most likely to change.
- Gustav Forsling (FLA D) is day-to-day. If he sits, the Florida top pair changes.
- Jake DeBrusk (VAN W) is day-to-day with an illness. His status moves the Vancouver second line.
- Our feed last updated the Vegas lines on October 3. Watch the morning skate and line rushes before you lock in VGK PP1.
Final Thoughts
For cash, build around Hart and part of VGK PP1, then add Gauthier, LaCombe and Bennett for a high floor. For GPP, take FLA PP1 or NYR PP1 with Shesterkin, and use SEA1 or Whitecloud to fit the salary. Rebuild your pool on the NHL DFS optimizer after the goalies are confirmed.
NHL DFS FAQ
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
Linemates are on the ice together, so a goal by one usually means points for one or two of the others. When a line has a big night, the stack scores all at once. Tonight the Florida second line has the best shot share on its team, which makes it a strong mini-stack at a lower price than PP1.
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes on a small slate. If your stack scores, its team usually wins, and a win adds to the goalie's points. Tonight Hart pairs with VGK PP1 and Shesterkin pairs with NYR PP1. Never play a goalie against your own stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.