Ten games give us plenty of room, so we lean on one-offs around a single power play stack instead of jamming three lines from one game. Six games share the top total of 6.5, but Carolina owns the biggest team total at 4.00 implied goals against Vancouver. We build around the Carolina top power play (CAR PP1), and the goalie we trust most is Ilya Sorokin, already confirmed for the Islanders.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ OTT | 5.5 | OTT -166 | PHI 2.48, OTT 3.02 | OTT on its third game in four nights |
| DAL @ BUF | 6.5 | DAL -120 | DAL 3.32, BUF 3.18 | BUF PP ranked 31st vs DAL PK 6th |
| VAN @ CAR | 6.5 | CAR -330 | VAN 2.50, CAR 4.00 | CAR PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
| MIN @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -137 | MIN 3.09, TBL 3.41 | TBL PK ranked 3rd |
| NSH @ MTL | 6.5 | MTL -170 | NSH 2.94, MTL 3.56 | NSH PP ranked 2nd vs 18th ranked PK |
| UTA @ BOS | 5.5 | UTA -128 | UTA 2.85, BOS 2.65 | UTA PP ranked 3rd vs 22nd ranked PK |
| CHI @ NYI | 5.5 | NYI -182 | CHI 2.42, NYI 3.08 | none |
| SJS @ STL | 5.5 | STL -150 | SJS 2.54, STL 2.96 | none |
| COL @ CGY | 6.5 | COL -240 | COL 3.80, CGY 2.70 | COL on a back-to-back after travel |
| TOR @ VGK | 6.5 | VGK -172 | TOR 2.93, VGK 3.57 | none |
The best special teams spot of the night is Carolina's power play against Vancouver, whose penalty kill ranked 32nd on numbers that still lean on last season.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard (CHI, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Patrick Kane, Anton Frondell, Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Seth Jarvis (CAR, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, William Carrier |
| Macklin Celebrini (SJS, C) | Day-To-Day | 8 | Will Smith, Mason Marchment, Alexander Wennberg |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Quinn Hughes, Jonas Brodin, Olli Maatta |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Emil Heineman |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Jordan Spence, Tyler Kleven, Carter Yakemchuk |
| Matt Duchene (DAL, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Sam Steel |
| Jason Zucker (BUF, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Ilya Sorokin (NYI, $8,100), cash
Sorokin is confirmed, and the Islanders are -182 favorites with a 61.7% win chance. Chicago carries the lowest implied total on the board at 2.42 goals, and its blended shot share of 45.0 leans on last season. We project just 20.8 saves, so his points come from the win.
Dustin Wolf (CGY, $7,000), GPP
Wolf is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Calgary turns to its backup, drop him. He has the best chance on the slate at 35 or more saves (42.7%) and the top goalie projection, with 33.65 saves projected against a Colorado team on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. His win chance sits at 32.4%, and that is fine for a tournament: he is low-owned and he fades the most popular stack of the night.
Avoid Scott Wedgewood ($8,400). He is the most popular goalie, Colorado played last night and traveled, and he has only a 1.2% chance at 35 saves. A back-to-back start often goes to the backup, so his status is shaky too.
Check today's NHL starting goalies before lock.
Stacks to Target
CAR PP1: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers
Carolina has the top team total on the slate at 4.00 implied goals. Kevin Lankinen is expected in net for Vancouver with a 26.6% win chance. The Carolina forwards draw the best SMASH unit matchup of the night in our NHL Elo ratings, and the Aho and Svechnikov line drove a 61.7 shot share, mostly last season's numbers. Ehlers skates on the third line but stays on the top power play, and Shayne Gostisbehere ($4,600) does the same from the third pair. Vancouver's penalty kill ranked 32nd last season, the widest power play edge on the board. We like it for cash and GPP, and the full unit costs $27,700.
VGK PP1: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner
Vegas sits at 3.57 implied goals against Sergei Bobrovsky, who is expected to start for Toronto with a 39.5% win chance. The Vegas forwards get a SMASH tag against the Toronto defense, and the Eichel line held a 54.4 shot share last season. Marner plays on the second line and joins PP1, so the unit spreads over two lines at even strength. Toronto's penalty kill ranked 8th, so this one runs on five-on-five volume more than the power play. It costs $34,700 in full, and it is a GPP build that the field has not loaded up on.
UTA PP1: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther
We make Utah our contrarian stack. They are a -128 road favorite at 2.85 implied goals, and Jeremy Swayman is expected to start for Boston with a 46.4% win chance. Utah's power play ranked 3rd and Boston's penalty kill ranked 22nd last season. The Keller and Schmaltz line drove a 53.6 shot share, again mostly last season's. The unit matchup is even, which is why it stays low-owned. Mikhail Sergachev ($5,600) runs this unit from the point but is listed day-to-day. GPP only.
See NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks for every unit.
Value Stack
NSH F1: Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos, Alexander Kerfoot ($13,200 total)
The Nashville top line has a 90th percentile outcome in the top half of tonight's stacks for $13,200. O'Reilly and Stamkos also run a power play that ranked 2nd, against a Montreal penalty kill that ranked 18th. Kerfoot at $2,900 is the throw-in, and the savings pay for the VGK PP1 core.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: COL PP1. Pivot: TOR PP1. Colorado's top unit is by far the most popular stack, and it plays on a back-to-back after travel into a penalty kill that ranked 4th. Toronto's PP1 has a 90th percentile close to it, costs $3,000 more, and is low-owned.
Chalk goalie: Scott Wedgewood. Pivot: Carter Hart ($8,200). Hart costs about the same, Vegas is a -172 favorite, and he gets a fraction of the attention. He also fits a VGK PP1 build.
Skaters
Centers
Bo Horvat ($6,700): cash. With Barzal on injured reserve, Horvat centers the top line and the top power play for about 20 minutes a night. We project 3.32 shots, and the Islanders are -182 favorites at home.
Tage Thompson ($8,100): GPP. He anchors the Buffalo top line and PP1, and Jason Zucker's absence leaves him more of the power play. Dallas has a strong penalty kill, so the case is even strength shot volume (3.21 projected) in a 6.5 total game, at low ownership.
Wingers
Jason Robertson ($7,700): cash. Robertson plays on the Dallas top line and PP1, and Matt Duchene's injury pushes more of the offense through him. His floor is among the best of any winger, with 3.26 shots projected at 3.32 implied goals.
Kirill Kaprizov ($8,300): GPP. He plays almost 21 minutes on the Minnesota top line and the top power play, and he has a 24.3 point ceiling. How a player with that ceiling stays this low-owned is a mystery. Tampa's penalty kill is good, so we want his even strength minutes.
Defensemen
Matthew Schaefer ($6,300): cash. Schaefer plays on the top pair and quarterbacks PP1 for nearly 25 minutes. That ice time gives him a projected 2.86 shots plus 1.22 blocked shots, a strong floor for the price.
Roman Josi ($6,400): GPP. Top pair minutes and the point on a Nashville power play that ranked 2nd, facing an 18th ranked penalty kill. He pairs well with the NSH value stack, and the field will be on other defensemen.
Value Plays
Trevor Zegras (PHI C, $3,400): He plays second line minutes but stays on PP1, about 18 minutes a night, against an Ottawa penalty kill that ranked 26th.
Jordan Staal (CAR C, $3,000): A third line center on the PP2 unit against the worst penalty kill on the slate. His line held a 59.4 shot share last season, and Carolina has the top team total.
Gage Goncalves (TBL W, $3,100): He skates on the top line next to Kucherov and Point and gets PP2 time. A top line role at this price is hard to find.
Blocks Floor
Cam York (PHI D, $3,400): York skates on the top pair with Travis Sanheim and gets PP2 time. We project 2.08 blocked shots and about a one in three chance at the 3-block bonus. Treat him as a cash and floor play.
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $5,300): No power play role, but he is on the Utah top pair with Sergachev. He projects for 1.96 blocks and has a 31.6% chance at three or more. If Sergachev sits, Weegar gets even more minutes.
Props to Watch
Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal (-156): we project 3.13 shots, the biggest edge over the line of any Tampa skater.
Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shots on goal (-152): the projection sits at 3.08, with Kucherov on the top line and PP1.
Taylor Hall over 1.5 shots on goal (-148): Hall projects for 2.10 shots against Vancouver, playing on the second line and PP2. Compare prices in our NHL odds comparison before you bet.
Treat each prop as a lean and keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Three goalies show as confirmed this morning: Sorokin, Ullmark and Luukkonen. Dustin Wolf, Lankinen and Bobrovsky are expected to start. If any of their teams turn to the backup, change your stack or your goalie.
- Colorado is on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Watch for a backup in place of Wedgewood, and expect the COL PP1 ownership to shift with the news.
- Mikhail Sergachev is day-to-day. If he sits, the UTA PP1 point spot changes and Weegar gets more minutes.
- Macklin Celebrini is day-to-day. His return would reshape the San Jose top line and PP1.
- Watch Jake Sanderson in Ottawa. If he misses again, Carter Yakemchuk keeps the PP1 spot.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Sorokin, Horvat and Schaefer, then add CAR PP1 pieces and Robertson. For GPP, build VGK PP1 with Wolf in net, fill in with the NSH F1 value line and Josi, and let the field take Colorado. Test your builds in the NHL DFS optimizer.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup aims to beat about half the field, so it chases floor: confirmed goalies on favorites, top power play skaters and defensemen with big minutes and blocked shots. A GPP lineup needs to beat almost everyone, so it stacks a line or power play unit and takes low-owned players with real ceilings. Tonight that means Sorokin and Horvat for cash, and VGK PP1 with Wolf for tournaments.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most starters are known after the morning skate, when the goalie who leaves the ice first is usually the starter. Teams confirm the rest closer to puck drop, and some only at warmups. Tonight only three starters are confirmed so far, so check the goalie page again before lock.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.