Four games means a short player list, so we build heavy stacks, pair the goalie with one of them and eat the chalk. Every game carries a 6.5 total, and Utah has the most goals implied at 3.71 at home against Pittsburgh. We build around the Toronto power play (TOR PP1), and MacKenzie Blackwood is the goalie we trust.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Brandon Bussi, lost and scored 11.2 DK points even with 31 saves. The MIN PP1 stack scored 49.8 DK points, second of 4 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA @ NYR | 6.5 | NYR -140 | NYR 3.35, ANA 3.00 | NYR PP (8th) vs ANA PK (11th) |
| COL @ PHI | 6.5 | COL -245 | COL 3.66, PHI 2.57 | COL PK 4th in expected goals against |
| SJS @ TOR | 6.5 | TOR -134 | TOR 3.51, SJS 3.21 | TOR PP (11th) vs SJS PK (29th) |
| PIT @ UTA | 6.5 | UTA -182 | UTA 3.71, PIT 2.98 | PIT plays its third game in four nights |
The best special teams spot is in Toronto. The Leafs create the 11th most expected goals per 60 on the power play, and San Jose allows the 29th most on the kill, on a blend that still leans on last season. Nobody plays a back-to-back tonight.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Mikael Granlund, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| William Nylander (TOR, RW) | Day-To-Day (illness) | 7 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews |
| Owen Tippett (PHI, RW) | Out | 7 | Sean Couturier, Trevor Zegras, Tyson Foerster |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Sean Couturier, Trevor Zegras, Tyson Foerster |
| Cam York (PHI, D) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Travis Sanheim, Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale |
| Ryan Poehling (ANA, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Mikael Granlund, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson |
| Igor Shesterkin (NYR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Dylan Garand |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,400), cash
Colorado is a -245 road favorite, and Blackwood's 67.9% win chance is the best on the slate. He is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Philadelphia is implied for 2.57 goals and takes the fewest 5v5 shots per 60 in the league, so he should only make about 20 saves. The win is what we're paying for. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Karel Vejmelka (UTA, $8,200), who has a 61.7% win chance.
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,400), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. Only three goalies clear a 55% win chance tonight, and Blackwood has the best shutout chance of them at 10%. He fits right next to our COL PP1 stack. Dylan Garand (NYR, $8,000) is the third goalie over the bar at 55.7%.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
TOR PP1: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Kirill Marchenko
Toronto is implied for 3.51 goals against Yaroslav Askarov, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed and has an .848 save percentage this season. The Leafs forwards draw a SMASH tag, 42.9 Elo points over the San Jose defense, the biggest gap on the slate. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the board (95.5), and correlation adds 9.1 points to it. The one soft spot is 5v5: the Matthews line drives only 49.1% of the shot attempts. The power play makes up for it against that 29th ranked kill. Nylander is day-to-day with an illness, so check before lock. Cash and GPP.
UTA PP1: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther
Utah has the highest implied total on the slate at 3.71, against Arturs Silovs, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The Keller line drives 54.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Utah's power play ranks 9th in expected goals per 60, and Pittsburgh's kill ranks 9th too, so this one is about volume more than a soft kill. Pittsburgh is playing its third game in four nights. GPP, and fine in cash.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri (third stack)
Colorado is implied for 3.66 goals against Joseph Woll, who is confirmed. The Avalanche defensemen draw a SMASH tag, 32.4 Elo points over the Philadelphia defense, and the MacKinnon line drives 54.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts. The power play is the weaker half here: Philadelphia's kill ranks 6th in expected goals against. On a four-game slate we eat the chalk, and this is the next best stack. Play it with Blackwood. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL F1 | Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | +11.2 | PHI F1 (42% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 680 min |
| COL F2 | Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri, Brock Nelson | +10.2 | PHI F1 (38%) | Full line, 64 min |
| NYR F1 | Alexis Lafreniere, Mika Zibanejad, Gabe Perreault | +4.5 | ANA F1 (46%) | Full line, 348 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
NYR F1: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, Gabe Perreault ($15,300 total)
This line's 90th percentile (52.5) sits in the top half of the slate, and it carries a +4.5 edge with a 56.9% expected goals share over 348 minutes together. Zibanejad and Lafreniere also run PP1, and the Rangers power play ranks 8th in expected goals per 60. It costs $4,300 less than the Toronto top line, which pays for Blackwood and a top defenseman.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: TOR PP1. Pivot: PIT PP1. Toronto is the most popular stack on the slate, and on four games we play it. Pittsburgh is the second build: a 90th percentile of 79.6, the biggest correlation lift of any stack (9.7) and low ownership. Don't pair it with Vejmelka.
Chalk goalie: Dylan Garand. Pivot: Karel Vejmelka. Garand is the most popular goalie and clears our 55% bar, so he's fine. Blackwood still leads our builds, and Vejmelka goes in the second one with the UTA PP1 stack in front of him.
Skaters
Centers
Macklin Celebrini ($8,700): cash. He centers the San Jose top line and runs PP1 for about 21 minutes. He should get three or four shots, with a 34% chance at five or more, second only to MacKinnon. Bobrovsky has an .891 save percentage this season, so the floor holds up.
Leo Carlsson ($7,000): GPP. With Troy Terry on injured reserve, more of the Ducks offense runs through Carlsson, who centers the top line and plays PP1 for about 20 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and the field is skipping Anaheim, so he comes in low-owned.
Wingers
Will Smith ($6,200): cash. Smith rides Celebrini's wing at 5v5 and on PP1, about 19 minutes in all. He should get two or three shots, and the top line drives 59.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Pair him with Celebrini for a cheap San Jose mini-stack.
Martin Necas ($7,200): GPP. He plays on the Colorado top line but only on PP2, which keeps his ownership down next to MacKinnon. He plays about 21 minutes and should get two or three shots, and his line has the +11.2 edge above. He fits with Blackwood.
Defensemen
Darren Raddysh ($5,800): cash. Raddysh plays on the Toronto top pair and runs PP1, close to 24 minutes. He should get about three shots, with a 15% chance at five or more. That kind of shot volume from a defenseman at this price is hard to find tonight.
Adam Fox ($6,100): GPP. Fox runs the Rangers PP1 from the point and plays on the top pair, about 22 minutes. He should only get one or two shots, so the upside is assists on a power play that ranks 8th. He's low-owned.
Value Plays
Alexander Wennberg (SJS C, $3,200): He centers the second line and stays on the top power play, about 20 minutes in all. That is PP1 time for $3,200.
Easton Cowan (TOR W, $3,000): He skates on the Toronto second line and runs PP2, about 16 minutes. San Jose allows the 24th most 5v5 expected goals per 60, and he's a good value at $3,000.
Blocks Floor
Nick Seeler (PHI D, $3,000): Seeler skates on the Philadelphia second pair with Jamie Drysdale for about 20 minutes and has no power play role. He should block two or three shots, with a 44.6% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Colorado takes the most 5v5 shots per 60, so he'll have plenty to get in front of. He plays against Blackwood, and one skater against your goalie is fine. Cash and floor play.
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $4,300): Weegar plays on the Utah top pair with Mikhail Sergachev for about 21 and a half minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 38.3% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Darnell Nurse over 1.5 shots on goal (-148): we have him for about 2.3 shots, the biggest gap we found on a prop priced -150 or better.
Mason Marchment over 1.5 shots on goal (-144): we have him for about two shots against a Toronto team that allows the 31st most 5v5 shots per 60. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Vejmelka.
- Askarov and Silovs face our TOR PP1 and UTA PP1 stacks and are not confirmed. If either team goes to its backup, the stack facing it gets better.
- Garand was the first goalie off the ice at the Rangers morning skate, and Bobrovsky was in the starter's crease in Toronto. Woll is the only confirmed starter.
- William Nylander is day-to-day with an illness. Check the Toronto line rushes before you lock TOR PP1.
- Pittsburgh plays its third game in four nights. Watch for lineup changes.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Blackwood, Celebrini, Raddysh and Will Smith, then fill out with the TOR PP1 forwards and the two value plays. In tournaments, run TOR PP1 with UTA PP1 and Blackwood, or build a second lineup around COL PP1 and use NYR F1 to pay for it.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
On a small slate, yes, when the goalie's team is a big favorite. A goalie wins when his skaters score, so the two rise together. Tonight Blackwood and COL PP1 fit that way with Colorado a -245 favorite. Just never play a goalie against your own stack.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
Linemates are on the ice together at 5v5, so one goal often pays two or three of them at once. That correlation is what wins tournaments. Tonight the Colorado top line has the best matchup edge on the slate at +11.2.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.