DraftKings main slate, Sunday September 13. Twelve games, game by game.
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
TB @ CIN
Team Totals: TB 23.3, CIN 26.8
Joe Burrow is in line for 37.5 pass attempts, the most of any quarterback on this slate, and that one number puts the game on top of the board at a 50.1 total. Cincinnati's 62.7% base pass rate is the highest of the 24 teams here and its script slope is the flattest in the league, so it throws at the same rate leading or trailing by ten. Burrow at $6,900 is worth it. Ja'Marr Chase at $7,800 is the most expensive receiver on the slate with a 27.1% target share, and Tampa Bay played zone on 73.0% of snaps last season, so he sits down in soft spots instead of running from a travelling corner. Cash-viable … Chase Brown at $7,100 gets 13.1 carries and 4.4 targets off a 77.0% backfield share. Pass-game work and goal-line work on one roster. RB2 with RB1 upside.
Baker Mayfield throws it 31.4 times against a defense that allowed the most DK points to tight ends in the league last season, and that fact should decide how you attack this side. Cade Otton at $3,700 takes a 16.5% share into the softest positional matchup in the game … Emeka Egbuka at $6,200 leads Tampa Bay at 24.6% … The backfield is the problem. Bucky Irving at $5,700 gets 12.2 carries, Kenny Gainwell at $5,200 gets 5.7 plus 3.7 targets, and Tampa Bay ran a 38.2% lead-back share last season, second-lowest on the slate.
Model Prediction: CIN 30, TB 24
NO @ DET
Team Totals: NO 21.4, DET 27.5
Detroit's 27.5 implied total is second-highest on the slate. Amon-Ra St. Brown at $7,500 owns a 31.1% target share, the largest of any player on the board, and at that size the volume is the floor. Safest receiver on the slate at any price … Jahmyr Gibbs at $8,000 is the most expensive player on the board, 15.4 carries and 4.6 targets off a 68.5% lead share. The goal line is the open question: Detroit lost 25 goal-line carries and six goal-line touchdowns and brought in one body who handled seven. Isiah Pacheco at $5,000 is that body and nothing today tells you how it splits.
Tyler Shough throws it 34.4 times, second-most on the slate, the natural result of handing a 56.6% base pass rate a six-point deficit. Detroit allowed the third-most DK points to receivers last season, so volume and matchup point the same way … Chris Olave at $6,700 takes a 23.8% share on 8.2 targets and is the pass catcher this side runs through … The backfield changed hands over the offseason. Travis Etienne at $5,900 handles 13.0 carries and arrived carrying 26 goal-line attempts, while Alvin Kamara at $4,900 is down to 2.6 carries. A lead back and a change-of-pace back rather than a committee, priced $1,000 apart.
Model Prediction: DET 29, NO 20
BAL @ IND
Team Totals: BAL 25.2, IND 22.1
Lamar Jackson at $6,800 throws it 25.7 times, second-fewest of any starter here, because Baltimore's 45.9% base pass rate is the lowest of the 24 teams on the slate. He is playable, but the case is rushing production and touchdown rate rather than volume, a narrower road to a ceiling than the price suggests … Derrick Henry at $6,700 draws 16.7 carries, tied with Jonathan Taylor for the most on the board, and is the purest expression of what this offense wants … Mark Andrews at $3,900 sees 21.1% and is the best punt tight end in the window.
Daniel Jones throws it 31.3 times and Indianapolis holds the eighth-most script-immune profile in the league, so a three-point deficit does not push this offense off its plan. Jonathan Taylor at $7,300 gets 16.7 carries off an 87.3% lead share, the highest on the board. No committee risk at all, worth a premium on a slate full of split backfields … Tyler Warren at $4,900 leads Indianapolis in target share at 24.5% and in raw targets at 7.7, ahead of every receiver on the roster, and a tight end out-targeting the wideouts at a mid-tier price is the kind of role the market catches a week late. I expect this game to disappoint against its 47.2 total: the lowest pass rate on the slate against one of the most script-immune offenses, with 33 carries between the two lead backs. If you want the game, buy the backs.
Model Prediction: BAL 26, IND 21
CHI @ CAR
Team Totals: CHI 24.6, CAR 22.2
Chicago lost 150 net receiving targets over the offseason, the largest hole on the slate, and the player who absorbed most of it is not a receiver. Colston Loveland at $5,300 leads the team at 23.4% and 7.4 targets, ahead of Luther Burden at 22.2% and Rome Odunze at 21.4%, and Carolina played zone on 83.1% of snaps last season, the heaviest rate here. Zone feeds the middle of the field, where this role lives. The mispriced role of the early window … D'Andre Swift at $6,100 gets 12.9 carries against Kyle Monangai at $5,100 on 9.9, both priced like starters. Leave that backfield alone in cash.
Bryce Young throws it 29.3 times, third-fewest of any starter here, so Carolina's real story is on the ground. The team vacated 14 goal-line carries and six goal-line touchdowns and added nobody, so that work has to land somewhere. Chuba Hubbard at $5,500 gets 10.5 carries and Jonathon Brooks at $5,000 gets 9.3 plus 2.7 targets, a genuine split at two prices that both assume the larger half. I lean Brooks on the pass-game work, and only in a tournament. One flag before you stack it: the line below sits four points under the market total, so the 46.8 in the header is the most optimistic read on this game.
Model Prediction: CHI 23, CAR 20
BUF @ HOU
Team Totals: BUF 23.0, HOU 22.0
Josh Allen at $7,000 is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and his 6.5 rushing attempts explain the price better than his 29.6 passing attempts do. Buffalo's 49.5% base pass rate is fourth-lowest of the 24 teams here, so the arm is not where the week comes from. Pay up for the legs or pay down entirely … James Cook at $7,200 gets 15.6 carries off a 64.8% lead share … Khalil Shakir at $4,800 leads Buffalo at 22.3% and costs $800 less than the receiver the field will roster.
C.J. Stroud throws it 31.8 times against a Buffalo defense that allowed the third-fewest DK points to receivers last season, and that is the hard part of this side. Nico Collins at $7,000 takes a 25.3% share anyway. The matchup is tough, but the target share is not going anywhere, so I pay it in tournaments and pass in cash … David Montgomery at $6,000 handles 13.8 carries and arrived with 25 goal-line attempts and six goal-line touchdowns, so the scoring equity sits with him.
Model Prediction: BUF 24, HOU 23
CLE @ JAX
Team Totals: CLE 17.2, JAX 24.8
Trevor Lawrence at $5,800 throws it 33.4 times, third-most on the slate, inside a 7.6-point spread that is second-widest on the board. That pairing is unusual and it is the reason to look here, because Jacksonville throws enough to support a receiver even while winning … Parker Washington at $5,600 leads the team at 19.3%, priced above Brian Thomas at $5,500 and Jakobi Meyers at $5,000 who sit at 16.7% and 17.2%. Three receivers inside three percentage points. You are guessing, and paying for it … The backfield splits in a way the pricing does not. Bhayshul Tuten at $5,800 gets 11.2 carries, Chris Rodriguez at $5,100 gets 10.4, and Rodriguez arrived with 22 goal-line attempts and six goal-line touchdowns. The cheaper body holds the touchdowns.
Cleveland's 17.2 implied total is the lowest on the slate and the pool prices two quarterbacks at the same $4,700 with the same volume behind them, unresolved this early in the week … Harold Fannin at $4,200 leads Cleveland at 21.1% and the team lost 48 tight end targets last season, the exact work he is in line for. The one Cleveland player I want at any price … Jacksonville DST at $3,400 is the second most expensive defense on the slate and points at the lowest implied total on the board. One more note before you price the game: the line below lands nearly seven points above the market total, the widest disagreement of the twelve, and it argues for both passing games rather than against them.
Model Prediction: JAX 29, CLE 19
ATL @ PIT
Team Totals: ATL 19.3, PIT 22.6
Aaron Rodgers throws it 32.6 times and Pittsburgh's receiver room is priced backwards. Michael Pittman at $4,900 leads the team at 19.6% after arriving with 111 targets, while DK Metcalf at $5,400 sits at 16.3%. The cheaper receiver is the higher-volume one and I do not expect the field to sort that out before Sunday … The backfield is a true split: Jaylen Warren at $5,400 on 10.3 carries against Rico Dowdle at $5,200 on 9.5, both with 2.9 targets.
Atlanta prices Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa at the same $4,800 with the same 31.3 attempts, so the pool has not resolved the starter and neither will I four days out. That uncertainty is the reason to buy the parts of this offense that do not depend on it … Bijan Robinson at $7,700 is the third-priciest player on the slate, 16.3 carries and 5.4 targets off a 74.5% lead share. Pass-game usage insulates him from the quarterback question, and that is how you play a 19.3 implied total … Drake London at $6,500 takes a 27.9% share and owns the volume, but every one of those targets comes from an unresolved quarterback. Tournament price, cash-shaped role.
Model Prediction: PIT 23, ATL 18
NYJ @ TEN
Team Totals: NYJ 19.5, TEN 21.3
New York allowed the most DK points to running backs in the league last season, the single softest positional matchup on this slate, and Tennessee has a defined lead back to point at it. Tony Pollard at $5,600 gets 11.2 carries against Tyjae Spears at $5,100 on 5.5, enough separation to trust even with modest raw volume … Cam Ward throws it 33.3 times, a lot for a team with a 21.3 implied total, and it comes from the deficit script rather than from choice … Wan'Dale Robinson at $4,800 arrived with 140 targets and leads Tennessee at 19.8% and is the volume.
Geno Smith at $4,600 throws it 32.6 times against a defense that allowed the second-most DK points to receivers last season. That is the best thing about this side and it makes him one of the more sensible cheap quarterbacks on the board … Garrett Wilson at $5,800 takes a 24.0% share and for once the matchup and the volume agree. Solid WR2 … Breece Hall at $6,200 gets 12.9 carries off a 62.1% lead share, and New York vacated seven goal-line carries and three goal-line touchdowns without adding anyone. This game carries the lowest total on the slate at 40.8 and everything I like here is a price argument rather than a ceiling argument.
Model Prediction: TEN 24, NYJ 19
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
ARI @ LAC
Team Totals: ARI 19.1, LAC 28.4
Los Angeles carries a 28.4 implied total, the highest on the slate, off a 9.3-point spread that is the widest on the board. Justin Herbert at $6,100 throws it 31.8 times and is priced below four quarterbacks with lower team totals. Best quarterback value in the late window … Omarion Hampton at $6,800 draws 14.2 carries and 3.6 targets and the game script points at him. The caution is a 44.9% lead-back share across seven bodies last season, so the pricing treats this role as settled and history says it was not. I play him anyway … Ladd McConkey at $5,900 takes a 22.9% share and is the pass catcher this offense runs through.
Arizona has one player worth solving for. Trey McBride at $6,800 commands a 26.3% target share as the second-priciest tight end on the board, but Los Angeles allowed the fifth-fewest DK points to tight ends last season, so you are buying the role and paying for the matchup … The backfield is where I would not go. Jeremiyah Love at $6,400 gets 11.6 carries with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner behind him, off a 30.2% lead-back share last season, the lowest on the slate. A $6,400 back in an unresolved committee on the wrong side of a nine-point spread is how a Sunday goes wrong early. The line below is six points wider than the market spread, the largest gap on the slate.
Model Prediction: LAC 32, ARI 17
GB @ MIN
Team Totals: GB 22.5, MIN 23.7
Kyler Murray at $5,500 throws it 32.9 times and runs it 5.2, the dual-threat shape at a price where you can afford to be wrong. Green Bay played zone on 78.4% of snaps last season, so the reads sit in front of him … Justin Jefferson at $7,300 is the third most expensive receiver on the slate with a 26.3% share, and against that much zone he works the coverage instead of one defender. Cash-viable … T.J. Hockenson at $3,300 takes 16.9% at a punt price, one of the two or three best salary-adjusted tight end spots on the board … The backfield is split. Jordan Mason at $5,400 gets 11.2 carries against Aaron Jones at $5,300 on 7.7 plus 2.7 targets, off a 42.6% lead share. Two prices $100 apart for a role neither owns.
Green Bay's 48.7% base pass rate is third-lowest of the 24 teams here and that caps what any of these pass catchers can do. Jordan Love at $5,700 throws it 31.5 times, a fine tournament piece and nothing more … Jayden Reed at $4,900 leads the team at 20.8%, Christian Watson at $5,900 sits at 18.1%, Matthew Golden at $4,700 sits at 17.8%. Three receivers inside a three-point band with $1,200 between cheapest and most expensive. Take the cheap end and let someone else pay for the name … The backfield is the loudest thing on this board. Josh Jacobs at $6,300 is down for 5.4 carries while MarShawn Lloyd at $4,800 is down for 10.5. Either a role changed and the market has not caught it, or the number deserves doubting. Either way $6,300 is a bad price for a question. The line below also has Green Bay winning outright against a market that has Minnesota by a point, which is reason enough to stop treating Minnesota as the default.
Model Prediction: MIN 21, GB 22
WAS @ PHI
Team Totals: WAS 19.8, PHI 24.9
Philadelphia's 46.7% base pass rate is second-lowest of the 24 teams here and its script slope is the steepest in the league, so this offense stops throwing faster than any other once it leads. With a 5.2-point spread, that is the assumption you bet against when you buy the passing game. Jalen Hurts at $6,600 throws it 30.3 times and runs it 7.1, and the rushing is why he survives the script … Saquon Barkley at $6,900 handles 16.3 carries off a 74.1% lead share as the direct beneficiary … DeVonta Smith at $6,600 takes a 24.2% share, and Philadelphia lost 121 targets from one receiver and replaced them with 120 across two arrivals, so the room reshuffled without shrinking.
Washington added 278 receiving targets across four arrivals while vacating 171, the largest net inflow on the slate, so this passing game has more mouths than volume. Jayden Daniels at $6,500 throws it 30.5 times and runs it 7.4, tied for the most rushing work of any quarterback here, and the legs are the whole floor … Terry McLaurin at $5,700 leads the team at 21.8% and is still the one target you can trust … The backfield is a three-way split at three similar prices and nobody in it clears the bar for cash. The tournament case is Rachaad White at $5,200, because pass-game work is the part that survives a five-point deficit.
Model Prediction: PHI 26, WAS 19
MIA @ LV
Team Totals: MIA 19.2, LV 22.8
Brock Bowers at $6,900 is the most expensive tight end on the slate and he earns it with a 29.0% target share and 8.9 looks, more than any pass catcher on either side of this game and the widest ceiling on the board. Miami allowed the tenth-most DK points to tight ends last season, so the matchup does not argue against it. The one player in this game I want in every format … Ashton Jeanty at $6,600 draws 14.6 carries off an 84.6% lead share, second-highest on the slate, so his workload is the second most secure on the board behind Jonathan Taylor.
Malik Willis at $5,300 throws it 25.0 times, the fewest of any starter on the slate, and runs it 7.4, tied for the most. His scoring shape is legs rather than arm, and that caps everyone catching passes behind him … De'Von Achane at $7,000 handles 13.9 carries and 4.2 targets off a 75.9% lead share, and Miami vacated 100 receiving targets without adding one, so more work points at the back than the carry count suggests. The reason to play this side … Three tight ends split 17.6%, 9.0% and 8.3%, with Greg Dulcich at $3,500 holding the largest share, and a room that flat produces real targets and no certainty about who collects them. Read the header and the line below together: the projected score runs six points above the market total, so the two low team totals up top are the softest number in this game rather than the settled one.
Model Prediction: LV 27, MIA 21
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.