NFL DFS Projections

NFL DFS projections for DraftKings and FanDuel

A full weekly projection for every player expected to play, priced against both DraftKings and FanDuel scoring. Switch platforms at the top and the whole board reprices, because the two sites score receptions and yardage differently enough that a player can be a value on one and a fade on the other.

What drives a weekly NFL projection

Opportunity comes first. Targets, carries and routes run are far more stable week to week than efficiency, so a projection built on volume holds up better than one built on yards per touch. A back who sees 18 touches in a bad matchup usually outscores a back who sees 8 in a good one.

Matchup adjusts that volume rather than replacing it. A soft defense raises the expected efficiency on the same workload, it does not invent extra carries. That is why matchup should move a projection by a modest amount and role changes should move it a lot.

Vegas sets the ceiling on the whole game. Team total is the best single predictor of how many scoring chances exist, and spread predicts game script, which is what decides whether a team runs out the clock or throws 45 times. A back on a heavy favorite and a back on a big underdog have different jobs in the fourth quarter.

Cash games versus tournaments

In cash, take the projection close to face value and prioritise players whose floor comes from guaranteed volume. Workhorse backs and target hogs are the point of cash lineups.

In tournaments the projection is a starting point, not the answer. You want players whose realistic best week sits far above the projection, which usually means touchdown dependence, deep targets, or a role that expands if someone ahead of them is out. Chasing the highest projected score in a tournament tends to produce the same lineup everyone else built.

Frequently asked questions