DraftKings main slate, Sunday September 20. Thirteen games, game by game, written Wednesday while practice reports and inactives are still open.
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
CIN @ HOU
Team Totals: CIN 21.8, HOU 24.4
C.J. Stroud is down for 32.1 attempts into a target tree missing two bodies, with Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins both on injured reserve. Nico Collins takes 8.9 of them, second-most of any pass catcher here, and he turned 10 targets into 75 yards and a score in the opener … Dalton Schultz at $3,200 is down for 6.3 targets and saw eight last week, starter volume at a punt price … David Montgomery gets 18.6 carries and scored twice on the ground in Week 1, so the goal line is settled.
Joe Burrow throws it 33.5 times and this side has one thing to reconcile. Ja'Marr Chase costs $7,600 and caught two balls for 12 yards on four targets in the opener, yet still projects for 7.7 looks. I'd sooner pay $1,500 less for Tee Higgins, who owns better than half of Cincinnati's projected air yards and is the cleanest regression buy in the window. He drew six targets at a 19.5 aDOT for 117 air yards and came away with 59 receiving yards, a 0.50 RACR against a league that lives nearer 0.75. Houston sat in two-high 43.2% of the time a year ago, which is the one argument against him, because a deep target is what a second safety is there to erase … Chase Brown handles 15.5 carries plus 4.3 targets while Samaje Perine gets 3.5 carries. That is a lead back with a spell man behind him.
Model Prediction: HOU 24, CIN 21
MIN @ CHI
Team Totals: MIN 21.6, CHI 26.5
Caleb Williams ran for two scores and threw for two more in Week 1, and the 29.1 attempts undersell him because he also took 10 carries for 65 yards. The backfield behind him is the awkward part. D'Andre Swift is down for 16.5 carries after 124 yards and three touchdowns, Kyle Monangai for 9.6 after 100 yards and one, and both are priced like the answer … Luther Burden III leads the receivers at 6.3 targets, Rome Odunze sits at 5.5, Colston Loveland at 5.4 … Kalif Raymond at $3,600 drew a team-high nine targets last week and projects for 3.3. That gap is the cheapest opportunity in the window. Nobody on this slate sat in zone more than Minnesota did last season, 81.7%, with two-high on 59.3% behind it. Lean that forward and it favours Burden working the middle over Odunze, whose value sits down the field.
Kyler Murray is questionable with a concussion after attempting five passes in the opener, and Carson Wentz threw three touchdowns in relief, so treat the position as open. Justin Jefferson at $7,800 does not care who throws it: 30.4% of the projected targets, second only to one receiver all week, after a 92-yard, two-touchdown opener … Jordan Mason is questionable with a thumb issue, which would hand Aaron Jones a backfield they split 15 carries to 12 last week.
Model Prediction: CHI 24, MIN 20. Nearly five points under the market total, the biggest under on the board.
CAR @ ATL
Team Totals: CAR 22.5, ATL 21.1
Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three scores in the opener and is down for 31.5 attempts, the busier arm in a game the market can barely separate. Jalen Coker is where the upside and the risk both sit. He put up eight catches for 138 and two touchdowns, costs $5,100, and carries an ankle tag that nobody will resolve before Friday … Chuba Hubbard gets 11.6 carries to Jonathon Brooks at 7.0 plus 2.8 targets. Brooks is the one with pass-game work, and that is the tiebreaker at this price.
Atlanta has not named a quarterback and the pool has not guessed. Both Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa carry questionable tags at $4,700 apiece, while Cooper Rush took the snaps in Week 1 for 143 yards and two interceptions. Buy the parts that survive the answer. Nobody costs more on this board than Bijan Robinson at $8,200 and he earns it through the air, 19.7 carries plus 5.3 targets after catching eight passes in the opener. Zone is where a back's checkdown work survives, and Carolina lived there a year ago at 78.5%, fourth-heaviest here. That is the part of his usage that does not depend on who is under center.
Model Prediction: ATL 21, CAR 19. We have Atlanta winning a game the market lines the other way.
PIT @ NE
Team Totals: PIT 18.7, NE 23.0
Drake Maye threw three picks in the opener and New England is still the side with the higher total here, which tells you what the market thinks of the 41.7 the two of them share. Rhamondre Stevenson is the reason: 16.0 carries plus 3.0 targets, and he saw six looks last week with TreVeyon Henderson recording nothing and now carrying an ankle tag. One caution on those looks. Man coverage costs backs more target share than any other split in the league-wide numbers, and Pittsburgh played 35.2% man a year ago, above the middle of this group … DeMario Douglas at $3,800 pulled a team-high seven targets and projects for 4.7 … Romeo Doubs costs $5,000 and caught none of his three. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve, so the volume is there.
Aaron Rodgers threw it 40 times for 221 yards in Week 1 and projects for 29.6 here, which is the honest read on an 18.7 implied total. DK Metcalf is the play anyway, and he is the best regression candidate on the slate. He ran up 204 air yards on 10 targets and came out with 40 receiving yards, a 0.20 RACR, and this is not the four-target mirage the screen usually turns up: 10 targets and a 27% share is a real role, Rodgers is still the quarterback throwing them, and nothing about the usage was borrowed from an absent teammate. He costs $5,200.
Model Prediction: NE 22, PIT 16
CLE @ TB
Team Totals: CLE 17.6, TB 25.1
Tampa Bay is favored by 7.6 and the passing game is where the points come from. Emeka Egbuka owns 58.7% of the team's projected air yards, the largest downfield claim on the slate, on 7.3 targets, and the matchup agrees for once, on last year's tendencies at least: nobody among these 26 teams played less two-high than Cleveland's 31.9%, and one deep safety leaves the shot plays open … Bucky Irving is the back to own here, and the 11.7 carries are not why. He caught all seven of his targets in Week 1 for a quarter of the team's looks.
Cleveland's 17.6 is one of the two smallest totals in the window and Deshaun Watson's 22.0 attempts are among the lightest of anyone starting. Quinshon Judkins gets 15.0 carries with Dylan Sampson on injured reserve, so the workload is clean, but 2.1 projected targets on a total this low is a touchdown-or-nothing week. Denzel Boston at $4,200 will show up on every regression screen this week and he should not. Four targets for 114 air yards is a 28.5 aDOT, which is a number about how far he ran, not about how often they looked at him. Four targets is not a role.
Model Prediction: TB 28, CLE 20. Six points clear of the market total.
PHI @ TEN
Team Totals: PHI 23.4, TEN 17.5
No game this week carries a smaller total than the 40.9 these two share, and Philadelphia gets most of it. Jalen Hurts throws it 25.8 times and ran seven more in Week 1 for 46 yards, so the floor sits in his legs rather than his volume … Saquon Barkley takes 18.0 carries and almost nothing through the air, two targets in the opener, which makes him a game-script bet and a good one at this spread … Dallas Goedert is the value. He caught four for 77 and two scores last week, sees 6.1 targets, and both backup tight ends are on injured reserve. There is no committee behind him at $4,800.
Tennessee's 17.5 is second-lowest on the board and Cam Ward is still down for 32.6 attempts, more than anyone else in this game, because the deficit does the work. Wan'Dale Robinson at 6.7 targets and Carnell Tate at 6.3 are the volume, and Tate carries the deeper half of it. Man pushes target share toward receivers and away from backs, and Philadelphia's 43.6% man rate last season was second-heaviest among these teams, so if it holds it points at both of them rather than at the run game. The backfield is a split on a bottom-three total with 2.2 targets attached to Tony Pollard.
Model Prediction: PHI 26, TEN 20. The market has this at 39.5 and we sit six points over it.
NO @ BAL
Team Totals: NO 19.7, BAL 27.4
Baltimore's 27.4 is the second-highest total on the slate and Lamar Jackson gets there on 23.3 attempts, so the scoring is not coming from his arm alone. He ran for a touchdown in Week 1 and threw for 324 … Derrick Henry takes 23.4 carries, more than anyone on the board, off a 144-yard, three-touchdown opener. That is the workload I would spend up for this week … Zay Flowers is questionable with a hamstring after 150 yards and a score, and the matchup is the reason to hope he clears. New Orleans kept two safeties deep only 35.0% of the time a year ago, one of the lighter rates here, and a single high safety is what a receiver priced like Flowers is supposed to beat. If he sits, Mark Andrews at $4,400 and his 5.6 targets inherit the most of it.
Tyler Shough threw it 56 times in Week 1 for 410 yards and three scores, and even discounted to 40.1 attempts he is the highest-volume arm on the slate. Chris Olave is the beneficiary and the chalk: 10.9 projected targets, a bigger raw number than any receiver or tight end this week, off a 182-yard opener. He already cashed the opportunity in, though. 234 air yards into 182 receiving yards is a 0.78 RACR, so there is no hidden week waiting to come out of him and you are buying volume rather than a rebound … Alvin Kamara is questionable with a knee, leaving Travis Etienne with 13.0 carries plus 4.2 targets. The pass-game work is what makes him playable on a 19.7 total.
Model Prediction: BAL 27, NO 17
GB @ NYJ
Team Totals: GB 24.0, NYJ 20.7
Josh Jacobs is out, so MarShawn Lloyd inherits 16.6 carries at $5,300 with Chris Brooks at 6.6 behind him, and Lloyd took 13 rushes in the opener even with Jacobs active. The salary has not caught up to that role. The one thing working against him is coverage. A back's targets go missing against man, and New York played 40.1% man a year ago, fifth-heaviest here … Matthew Golden costs $4,700 and is the receiver I want here. He drew a team-high 12 targets, turned 137 air yards into 95, and comes $1,500 cheaper than Christian Watson, who scored twice. His conversion rate was fine, so this is a volume buy rather than a rebound.
Geno Smith threw for 215 without a touchdown in the opener and gets 26.6 attempts. Garrett Wilson is the whole passing game: 7.0 targets, 26.3% of them, and 45.8% of the projected air yards. If you want a Jet, it is him and nobody else is close … Breece Hall takes 19.1 carries, a top-five workload this week, after 102 yards and a touchdown, and New York is only a field goal underdog, so the script does not talk him out of the work.
Model Prediction: GB 25, NYJ 17
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
JAX @ DEN
Team Totals: JAX 21.9, DEN 24.3
Bo Nix threw for 131 yards in the opener, the thinnest full game any starter here turned in, and is still down for 30.8 attempts. A bad box score behind that much volume is why this receiver room is cheap. Courtland Sutton takes 43.5% of the projected air yards on 5.1 targets and caught two for 11 … Jaylen Waddle costs $6,500 for 5.6 targets after a one-catch, two-yard opener, which is $2,300 more than I want to pay to find out whether Week 1 meant anything.
Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts in Week 1, which is not a repeatable rate, and 28.4 projected attempts is the sober version. Parker Washington owns the downfield work, 42.2% of the air yards on 6.2 targets, and he caught five for 83 and a score. Bhayshul Tuten gets 14.2 carries against Chris Rodriguez Jr. at 8.0, and only Tuten catches anything, which matters more here than in most games. No defense on this slate ran more man last season than Denver's 44.6%, and man is the coverage that erases a back's receiving line.
Model Prediction: DEN 28, JAX 24. Seven points above the market total.
LV @ LAC
Team Totals: LV 18.8, LAC 25.1
Justin Herbert is down for 29.2 attempts and the receiver room has a health question at the top of it. Ladd McConkey is questionable with ribs and carries 7.2 targets and a 35.5% air-yards claim, so if he is limited the volume has to go somewhere.
Las Vegas has not settled its quarterback. Kirk Cousins took every snap in the opener for 160 yards, three scores and two picks, while the rookie Fernando Mendoza is priced $500 under him, and nobody outside the building knows the answer yet. Ashton Jeanty takes 20.2 carries, a workload only Derrick Henry beats this week, and he caught six passes for two touchdowns in Week 1. Los Angeles sat in zone 77.7% of the time a year ago, and a back who already catches six balls against linebackers sitting in zones rather than running with him is how you survive an 18.8 total. He is the safest thing in this game … Brock Bowers is questionable after knee surgery, which puts Michael Mayer at $3,600 back in play. He drew seven targets and caught six last week while Bowers did not record a catch.
Model Prediction: LAC 28, LV 17
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
SEA @ ARI
Team Totals: SEA 23.7, ARI 18.9
Sam Darnold is doubtful, which points at Drew Lock, who went 16 of 22 for 187 and a touchdown in Week 1 and is down for 22.0 attempts here. Jaxon Smith-Njigba survives the thin volume: he takes 35.8% of the projected targets, the largest claim on the slate, plus 49.4% of the air yards, off 11 targets for 122 yards and a score in the opener. I will pay the $8,100 for a role that size. The honest caveat is the coverage. Arizona showed two-high on 49.2% of its dropbacks a year ago, and half of Smith-Njigba's projected value is air yards, which is what a second deep safety is assigned to take away.
Arizona lost James Conner and Trey Benson to injured reserve and now splits the backfield two ways, Jeremiyah Love at 12.7 carries against Tyler Allgeier at 12.1, with Love holding the 3.2 targets. On an 18.9 total the targets decide it … Trey McBride at $6,900 commands 29.7% of the targets and caught nine for 95 and a score last week, the best tight end role in the late window.
Model Prediction: SEA 29, ARI 17. A 12.8-point margin against a market spread of 4.5, the widest disagreement on the slate.
MIA @ SF
Team Totals: MIA 17.1, SF 29.5
One game holds the slate's extremes: the highest team total at 29.5, the lowest at 17.1, and the widest spread at 12.4. San Francisco is also down three receivers, with Brandon Aiyuk out and Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk on injured reserve. Mike Evans takes 7.5 targets and 36.9% of the air yards, Deebo Samuel Sr. takes 6.4, George Kittle 5.2, and there is no fourth mouth … Christian McCaffrey at $8,000 gets 13.5 carries and 6.0 targets, and Miami's 72.5% zone rate last season protects the larger half of that, since zone is where a back's receiving work lives. The problem is behind him: Kaelon Black at $4,500 out-carried him 14 to 10 in Week 1, and in a blowout that leak gets worse.
Miami's 17.1 is the smallest implied total anywhere this week and I still like two players here. De'Von Achane takes 4.6 targets alongside 13.2 carries, and on a total this low the receiving work is the only thing that makes a back playable … Malik Washington at $4,000 is the regression buy nobody will roster. He drew eight targets and 135 air yards for 53 receiving yards, a 0.39 RACR on a 30% target share, and unlike most names on that screen the opportunity is repeatable: no teammate came back to take it, Willis is still the quarterback, and a 16.9 aDOT on eight looks is a role rather than a couple of heaves. Malik Willis throws it 26.7 times and ran in a score last week, so the touchdown equity is not all in the passing game.
Model Prediction: SF 35, MIA 20. Nine points clear of the market total, the largest gap of the thirteen.
WAS @ DAL
Team Totals: WAS 23.1, DAL 26.5
Nothing on the board is priced for more scoring than the 49.7 here, and only one quarterback all week is down for more attempts than Dak Prescott's 33.6. CeeDee Lamb takes 8.6 of those, a top-three target count this week, and he left 46 air yards on the field himself in the opener … George Pickens at $6,300 interests me more. He ran up 104 air yards on six targets and came away with 28 receiving yards, a 0.27 RACR, and he holds 33.7% of the projected air yards, so the role is not a one-week accident. Six targets is a thinner base than I would like, which is the one thing keeping him behind Metcalf on the regression list … Javonte Williams gets 15.0 carries plus 3.3 targets with nobody behind him above 1.6 carries, and he scored on the ground and through the air in Week 1.
Jayden Daniels adds five carries to 30.5 attempts and that rushing is the difference between him and the other quarterbacks in this price band. Stefon Diggs is the target leader at 7.4 after a team-high nine in the opener, and he costs $100 more than Terry McLaurin at 5.9. That order is not what the field expects, and a Dallas defense that played three quarters zone a year ago, 75.0%, leans the same way, because Diggs works at a 9.2 aDOT and that is the space zone concedes … The backfield is three deep and I would leave it alone.
Model Prediction: DAL 27, WAS 22
Unrealized Air Yards
Three receivers earned far more downfield opportunity than their box scores paid out, and all three survive the questions that usually kill this screen.
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh. The gap is the biggest on the board by a distance, the target count is too large to be an accident, and the same quarterback is still throwing them.
Malik Washington, Miami. He leads his own team in target share, nobody is coming back to take it off him, and the price has not noticed.
George Pickens, Dallas. Thinnest target base of the three, which is why he sits here rather than at the top, but he is attached to the highest-scoring game of the week.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.