DraftKings main slate, Sunday September 27. Thirteen games, one at a time, written on Wednesday, so practice reports and inactives aren't settled yet and every injury note below is a snapshot.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels, WAS QB | Doubtful (elbow) | 10 | Marcus Mariota ($4,500), who split Week 2 throws 16 to 17. Hurts McLaurin's deep role |
| Jaxson Dart, NYG QB | Doubtful (knee) | 10 | Jameis Winston ($4,000) threw 27 of 32 Week 2 passes. Isaiah Likely (24.3% share) |
| Sam Darnold, SEA QB | Questionable (lower body) | 9 | Drew Lock ($5,200) started both games. JSN's 37.2% share holds |
| Nico Collins, HOU WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Dalton Schultz (14 targets in Week 2) and Xavier Hutchinson. Stroud threw 55 times in Week 2, when Collins logged no stats |
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Rashod Bateman (nine targets in Week 2) and Mark Andrews (24.2% share) |
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Questionable (hip) | 7 | Deebo Samuel Sr. (26.4% share), George Kittle (21.4%) |
| Malik Nabers, NYG WR | Questionable (shoulder) | 7 | Isaiah Likely and Malachi Fields |
| DJ Moore, BUF WR | Questionable (shoulder) | 6 | Khalil Shakir (22.0% share), Dalton Kincaid (22.6%) and Keon Coleman |
| Zach Charbonnet, SEA RB | Out | 6 | Jadarian Price (13.9 carries, questionable) or Emanuel Wilson (21 Week 2 carries) |
| Brock Bowers, LV TE | Questionable (knee) | 5 | Michael Mayer ($3,300), 15.0% share |
| Alec Pierce, IND WR | Doubtful (heel) | 4 | Josh Downs (26.4% share) and Keenan Allen |
| Rico Dowdle, PIT RB | Questionable (toe) | 4 | Jaylen Warren (10.8 carries plus 3.3 targets) |
| Mason Taylor, NYJ TE | Doubtful (thumb) | 4 | Kenyon Sadiq ($3,500) |
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
LAC @ BUF
Team Totals: LAC 21.8, BUF 28.2
Buffalo's 28.2 leads every offense this week, and Josh Allen ($8,000) gets it there two ways: 27.7 attempts plus 7.3 carries, off a three-touchdown Week 2. James Cook takes 18.6 carries after turning 21 of them into a 135-yard, one-touchdown Week 2 … Dalton Kincaid is the pass catcher we'd pay for. He's caught 12 balls for 225 yards through two games and projects for 6.3 targets at $5,500 … DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder and didn't draw a target in Week 2, which leaves Khalil Shakir ($4,800) as the steadier receiver on 6.1 looks. The Chargers played zone on 77.7% of snaps in 2025, and if that carries over it's a lean toward Shakir, since he wins underneath rather than down the sideline.
Justin Herbert threw two picks for 192 yards last week and gets 29.4 attempts here. Ladd McConkey leads the room at 7.2 targets, a 24.6% share … Omarion Hampton turned 23 Week 2 carries into 94 yards and one touchdown, and he projects for 17.5 carries. He's the goal-line back … Quentin Johnston has 11 targets and 24 yards through two weeks. That looks like a regression screen hit until you see the 9.4 aDOT: those were short throws that went nowhere, so we can't call it a buy.
Model Prediction: BUF 27, LAC 24. We have this as a field goal game, and the market has Buffalo by 7.5.
NYJ @ DET
Team Totals: NYJ 20.4, DET 26.9
Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns in Week 2 and gets 34.0 attempts. Amon-Ra St. Brown projects for 11.3 targets, more than any other pass catcher this week, after 27 targets and four touchdowns across two games … Nobody on the slate costs more than Jahmyr Gibbs at $8,800, and he'll be the chalk to match: 22.8 carries plus 5.4 targets, off a 29-carry, 156-yard opener … Sam LaPorta ($4,300) projects for 6.8 looks after six grabs in Week 2.
Geno Smith threw it 41 times in Week 2 and gets 31.4 projected attempts, which is plenty of volume for two receivers. Garrett Wilson takes 30.6% of the targets at $6,300 … Adonai Mitchell is the regression buy, with 115 unrealized air yards in Week 2 alone, and he projects for 53.0% of the team's air yards, more than any receiver here. His $4,300 price reflects the box score rather than the looks. Detroit ran man on 40.8% of its 2025 snaps, tied for the most among these 26 teams, and man coverage tends to push targets toward wideouts, which helps both of them … Breece Hall gets 18.0 carries but managed 29 yards on 16 last week.
Model Prediction: DET 30, NYJ 18. We have a 12-point win; the market has 6.5.
KC @ MIA
Team Totals: KC 27.5, MIA 18.3
Patrick Mahomes threw 47 times for 382 yards last week and costs $6,200 for 33.5 projected attempts. Six quarterbacks on this slate cost more, and we'd take that discount every week … Kenneth Walker III carried 24 times for 117 yards and drew 10 targets in Week 2. At $7,400 he projects for 23.1 carries plus 4.3 targets, a three-down workload … Travis Kelce at $4,500 went 9-101-1 on 11 targets in Week 2 and projects for 6.9 targets. He's the tight end we'd pay for in this window … Xavier Worthy gets 5.7 targets, but Miami showed two-high on 50.4% of snaps in 2025, so we'd lean away from a receiver whose best route is the go ball.
Miami's 18.3 is the second-smallest total on the board, and Malik Willis gets there on 25.7 attempts plus 6.6 carries. De'Von Achane handled 20 carries in Week 2 and projects for 16.0 more with 4.8 targets … Malik Washington was our regression call last week and it didn't hold. His aDOT fell off a cliff in Week 2, five targets for 27 air yards, so the downfield role that made him a buy isn't there anymore.
Model Prediction: KC 29, MIA 18
CIN @ PIT
Team Totals: CIN 22.9, PIT 20.2
Joe Burrow gets 32.3 attempts and his top receiver answered the Week 1 question. Ja'Marr Chase went 7-75-2 on nine targets after a two-catch opener and projects for 7.8 looks at $8,100 … Tee Higgins at $6,100 still holds 52.8% of the Bengals' projected air yards, but he cashed it in last week with 95 yards on 10 targets … Chase Brown has 36 carries through two games and projects for 17.8 more plus 4.3 targets.
Aaron Rodgers threw 39 times for 187 yards and no touchdowns last week and is down for 32.0 attempts. DK Metcalf is still our top regression buy, with 199 unrealized air yards through two games (week by week below). A 20.0% projected target share means the role is real, and $5,400 still prices the box score rather than the usage. Cincinnati showed two-high on just 32.9% of snaps in 2025, second-lightest among these teams, and one deep safety gives a vertical route room to land.
Model Prediction: CIN 23, PIT 22
HOU @ IND
Team Totals: HOU 22.7, IND 20.7
C.J. Stroud threw it 55 times for 353 yards in Week 2 and projects for 37.8 attempts, second-most on the slate. Nico Collins carries a questionable tag for a hamstring and has no Week 2 stats, and Dalton Schultz filled the gap: 14 targets, 12 catches, 140 yards. At $4,200 with 8.1 projected targets, Schultz trails only Cade Otton among tight ends in points for the price … Xavier Hutchinson will show up on the air yards screen, and the context kills it. His Week 2 usage came in a game where Collins logged no stats, so if Collins plays, those targets go back to him … David Montgomery projects for 14.5 carries but ran six times for 10 yards last week, while Woody Marks caught five passes. That's a committee.
Jonathan Taylor has scored four rushing touchdowns in two games and projects for 20.8 carries at $7,600. He's the goal-line back … Josh Downs gets 7.8 targets after catching seven for 72 last week. Houston played zone 68.5% of the time last season, and a slot receiver against zone works the open middle of the field … Tyler Warren projects for 7.3 targets but has 34 yards on nine catches this year, so he needs a touchdown.
Model Prediction: HOU 24, IND 21
NE @ JAX
Team Totals: NE 21.9, JAX 23.9
Trevor Lawrence threw for 189 yards with no touchdowns in Week 2 and should get 28.1 attempts. Parker Washington is the one to want: 7.4 targets, 50.4% of the team's air yards, and 12 targets in Week 2 for 98 yards. He's already turning his looks into yards, so buy him for the volume … Bhayshul Tuten gets 14.6 carries and scored last week, but 1.9 targets makes him a touchdown-dependent RB2.
Drake Maye adds 5.1 carries to 28.8 attempts. The backfield is a real split: TreVeyon Henderson projects for 13.4 carries after running for 76 and a score in Week 2, Rhamondre Stevenson for 11.7 with slightly more receiving work … Romeo Doubs turned four Week 2 targets into 96 yards and projects for 5.6 … DeMario Douglas at $3,700 gets 4.2 targets. Jacksonville lived in zone at 76.2% last season, and that coverage leaves the middle open for a slot receiver like him.
Model Prediction: NE 24, JAX 23. The market has Jacksonville as the favorite, and we have New England.
CAR @ CLE
Team Totals: CAR 21.9, CLE 20.0
Bryce Young threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2 and projects for 32.5 attempts, the busiest arm in this game. Jalen Coker has 16 catches on 18 targets for 204 yards through two weeks and costs $5,500 … Tetairoa McMillan projects for 8.1 targets and turned 10 of them into 101 yards last week, so the two of them eat nearly half the targets … Chuba Hubbard has three touchdowns in two games and projects for 14.8 carries plus 3.9 targets. Cleveland matched that 40.8% man rate in 2025, tied for the heaviest here, and man coverage is where running backs lose their checkdown targets.
Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 and two touchdowns last week, but 22.0 projected attempts keeps his ceiling low. Quinshon Judkins has 24 carries for 54 yards on the year. The workload is there and the efficiency isn't, on a 20.0 total … Denzel Boston is the change worth noting. Last week we wrote off his four-target opener as depth without a role. He then drew seven targets and went 5-95-1, and he now projects for 52.8% of the air yards. At $4,500 it's starting to look like a real role.
Model Prediction: CAR 20, CLE 19
SEA @ WAS
Team Totals: SEA 23.3, WAS 18.0
Sam Darnold is questionable with a lower-body injury, and Drew Lock has started both games, the last one going for 235 yards and three touchdowns. Whoever starts has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 37.2% projected target share tops every player on the slate. He has 17 catches for 277 yards and four touchdowns on 22 targets, and $8,600 is the price of the one receiver whose volume doesn't depend on the quarterback.
Nobody on the slate has a smaller team total than Washington's 18.0. Jayden Daniels is doubtful with an elbow, which points to Marcus Mariota, who split the Week 2 throws with him. Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects for 13.1 carries but only 1.3 targets on the smallest total of the week, so he isn't a cash play. He's a touchdown-or-nothing dart … Terry McLaurin drew nine targets for 154 air yards last week and caught two for 50. Half of those passes came from Mariota, though, and Seattle sat in two-high 53.7% of the time in 2025, second-most here, which takes away his deep route. We'd pass … Stefon Diggs has three touchdowns in two games and projects for 6.1 targets at $5,500.
Model Prediction: SEA 22, WAS 18
TEN @ NYG
Team Totals: TEN 18.9, NYG 21.6
At 40.6, this is the lowest-totaled game on the board. Jameis Winston is the quarterback, since Jaxson Dart is doubtful with a knee, and Winston completed 11 of 27 for 111 yards last week. Cam Skattebo gets 16.4 carries but only 2.1 targets … Malik Nabers is questionable with a shoulder after a four-target, one-yard game. Isaiah Likely has 18 targets through two weeks and projects for 5.5 at $4,700 … Malachi Fields will look like a regression buy, with 202 air yards turned into 55 receiving yards. A 20.2 aDOT on 10 targets means he's running deep with little volume behind it, so we're passing.
Cam Ward threw just 20 passes in Week 2 and projects for 29.2 this time. Carnell Tate carries 35.5% of Tennessee's projected air yards on 6.3 targets at $5,000, and the Giants ran man on 39.9% of snaps a year ago. Man coverage pushes target share toward wideouts, so if that holds, the lean is toward Tate … Tony Pollard gets 11.8 carries and 2.0 targets on a bottom-three total. That isn't a cash play … Gunnar Helm costs $2,900 for 4.5 projected looks, a fine punt at tight end.
Model Prediction: NYG 23, TEN 18
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
ARI @ SF
Team Totals: ARI 19.7, SF 28.2
Brock Purdy completed 20 of 22 for 287 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 and gets 27.6 attempts. With two receivers out and Mike Evans questionable, Deebo Samuel Sr. is the safest target at $5,300, with 7.3 projected looks and a 26.4% share. Arizona called zone 72.1% of the time in 2025, and Deebo makes his money on short throws between the hashes … George Kittle at $4,800 projects for 5.9 targets after catching four for 80 and a score … Christian McCaffrey scored twice last week on 10 carries for 23 yards. His price is $8,300 for 12.7 carries plus 6.2 targets, and the receiving work carries it, because Kaelon Black keeps taking carries.
Jacoby Brissett threw for 95 yards on 28 attempts in Week 2. We trust one piece here, Trey McBride: 8.8 targets, a 31.7% share, and 23 targets through two weeks … Jeremiyah Love gets 11.4 carries and 3.3 targets against Tyler Allgeier's 9.5, and Love's receiving work is the tiebreaker.
Model Prediction: SF 35, ARI 19. We have a 16-point win against a market line of 8.5, the widest spread gap this week.
MIN @ TB
Team Totals: MIN 22.3, TB 21.5
Kyler Murray has no injury designation this week after sitting Week 2, when Carson Wentz threw all 20 passes for 143 yards. Aaron Jones is the play regardless: 24.4 projected carries, the most of any back this week, after 23 carries for 105 yards last week with Jordan Mason on injured reserve. At $5,900 he scores more than anyone at his price. The risk is that he has zero catches this season, so all of his floor comes from carries … Justin Jefferson holds 51.7% of Minnesota's projected air yards at $7,500.
Baker Mayfield projects for 31.1 attempts after a 182-yard game. Bucky Irving ran 17 times for 89 in Week 2 and should see 13.7 carries and 3.8 targets … Cade Otton ($3,100) projects for 5.6 looks, and no tight end beats his salary by a wider margin this week … Ted Hurst III at $3,000 drew seven targets and 145 air yards last week and caught two for 27. The price makes him a tempting regression call, but Minnesota lived in two-high at 59.3% in 2025, the heaviest rate here, and two deep safeties are built to take away exactly the route that created those air yards. Treat him as a tournament dart.
Model Prediction: TB 26, MIN 24. That's 7.1 points above the market's 42.5, the widest total gap this week, and we have Tampa Bay winning while the market leans Minnesota.
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
BAL @ DAL
Team Totals: BAL 27.2, DAL 24.4
No game carries a higher total than the 51.5 here. Lamar Jackson projects for 25.9 attempts plus 6.6 carries. Derrick Henry gets 20.7 carries but only 1.7 targets, so at $7,700 he needs a touchdown to pay off, even on a 27.2 total … With Zay Flowers questionable, Rashod Bateman (9 targets, 7-88-1 in Week 2) gains the most … Mark Andrews takes 24.2% of the projected targets at $4,400.
Dak Prescott went 26 of 31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns last week and gets 33.7 attempts. CeeDee Lamb projects for 8.9 targets after an 8-153-2 game … George Pickens at $6,600 is the regression buy in this game, with 119 unrealized air yards through two weeks. He still holds 33.8% of Dallas's projected air yards on 7.6 targets, so the downfield role is intact. Baltimore played two-high on 33.3% of snaps in 2025, third-lightest here, which leaves room over the top … Javonte Williams has 24 carries for 71 yards through two games.
Model Prediction: BAL 26, DAL 25
LV @ NO
Team Totals: LV 20.3, NO 23.4
Tyler Shough projects for 37.9 attempts, more than any other quarterback this week. Chris Olave is the chalk and has earned it: 10.6 projected targets and 23 through two games. He's already turning that volume into yards, so you're paying for volume here … Devaughn Vele at $4,400 is the value in this game. He projects for 6.5 targets after 16 across the first two weeks, and Las Vegas called zone 79.6% of the time in 2025, second-most here. His routes live between the numbers, which is where zone leaves space … Travis Etienne gets 11.8 carries plus 3.7 targets.
Kirk Cousins threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns on 29 attempts in Week 2. Ashton Jeanty has 44 carries in two games and projects for 21.1 more, so he's the workhorse, and 3.4 targets gives him a floor on a 20.3 total.
Model Prediction: NO 24, LV 20
Unrealized Air Yards
Unrealized air yards are the yards a receiver was targeted for downfield minus the yards he actually caught. These three keep drawing deep looks and haven't connected yet, and that's the setup for a spike week once a couple of those deep balls land.
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh. 199 unrealized air yards, the most on the slate. Week 1: 10 targets, 204 air yards, 40 receiving yards. Week 2: nine targets, 62 air yards, 27 receiving yards. Most of the gap came in Week 1, but the looks keep coming at nine or 10 a week, and he's caught a quarter of the yardage thrown his way.
George Pickens, Dallas. 119 unrealized air yards. Week 1: six targets, 104 air yards, 28 receiving yards. Week 2: eight targets, 83 air yards, 40 receiving yards. Same gap two weeks running, his targets went up, and he plays in the biggest total of the week.
Adonai Mitchell, New York. 115 unrealized air yards, all of it in Week 2: 12 targets, 178 air yards, 63 receiving yards. In Week 1 he caught nearly all of it (three targets, 59 air yards, 60 yards), so the gap comes from new volume, and that volume is what we're buying.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.