MLB Spray Charts and Heat Maps

MLB spray charts and hitter heat maps

Where a hitter puts the ball in play and where in the zone he does damage, alongside expected weighted on-base average, swing rate and whiff rate. It is the visual version of a hitter profile, which is often faster to read than a table of rates.

What a spray chart tells you that a stat line does not

Batted ball direction is one of the more stable things about a hitter, and it interacts directly with defensive positioning and with park shape. A heavy pull hitter in a park with a short porch on his pull side is a different player than the same hitter somewhere symmetrical.

It also explains gaps between results and underlying quality. A hitter driving the ball hard into the teeth of a shifted infield will underperform his contact quality for long stretches, and that gap tends to close rather than persist.

Expected weighted on-base average is the number to read next to it, because it describes what the contact deserved rather than what it produced. A hitter well below his expected mark has been unlucky in a way that historically corrects.

Swing and whiff rates as the stability check

Swing decisions and contact rates stabilise faster than any results-based statistic. A hitter whose whiff rate has climbed sharply is a different hitter, and that shows up long before the batting average moves.

The reverse is a buying signal. A hitter in a visible slump whose swing rate, whiff rate and contact quality are all unchanged is almost always experiencing variance rather than decline, and that is the moment the market is most likely to be wrong about him.

Frequently asked questions