MLB Home Run Predictor: Dinger Detector

MLB home run predictor for today

A ranked home run board for every hitter on today's slate. Each player gets one score from one model, converted to implied odds so you can hold it against a sportsbook price directly.

How the home run model works

Home runs are a contact-quality problem before they are anything else, so the model starts with how hard and at what angle a hitter makes contact. Barrel rate and average exit velocity carry the most weight, with bat tracking data on attack angle layered in, because two hitters with identical exit velocity produce very different home run rates if one of them swings on a flatter plane.

Against that, the pitcher's home run rate allowed to that side of the plate. A right-handed pitcher who has given up a pile of home runs to lefties is a different matchup for a lefty bat than his overall rate suggests.

Park comes next, using that stadium's home run factor split by batter handedness rather than a single overall number. Yankee Stadium is not the same park for a lefty and a righty, and treating it as one number throws away the most useful thing about it.

Weather is applied only for outdoor games. Temperature affects how far a ball carries, and wind direction relative to the batter's pull side matters more than wind speed on its own. Domes get no weather adjustment at all.

Batting order slot finishes it off, since plate appearances are the raw material and a leadoff hitter gets roughly one more per game than a nine hole. One score, one model. No stacked tags or blended sub-scores to interpret.

Using the board for props versus DFS

For home run props, the number you care about is the model's implied odds against the book's price. A hitter the model prices at +320 who is listed at +450 is the bet, regardless of where he sits on the board. Ranking is not the signal; the gap between the model and the market is.

For DFS the read is different. You are looking for ceiling inside a salary tier, so a mid-priced bat with a top-fifteen home run score is worth more to a tournament lineup than the top overall name at maximum salary. In cash games the home run board is a tiebreaker between hitters with similar projections, not a reason to reach.

Why weather and park move home runs more than hits

A ball hit at 103 mph and 28 degrees is a home run in one park on a warm night and a warning-track out in another park in a cold wind. Singles do not care much about air density or fence distance; the batted balls in the home run band sit right on the boundary, so small changes to carry flip a meaningful share of them. That is why the same hitter can swing 40 or more points of home run probability between two starts in the same week without anything about him changing.

Frequently asked questions