Projections
DraftKings and FanDuel daily player projections
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Projections refresh at 9 AM, 1 PM, and 5:30 PM ET.
MLB DFS projections for today's slate
Every hitter and pitcher on today's DraftKings and FanDuel slate, with a projected point total for each. The board rebuilds when lineups are confirmed, so the numbers you see an hour before lock are not the numbers from this morning. Players whose games are postponed drop out of the pool automatically.
How these projections are built
The projection starts from a hitter's rate stats against the handedness of the pitcher he is actually facing, not his overall season line. That split matters more than most single inputs, and it is where a lot of free projections quietly cheat.
From there the model layers on the park, using the home run and wOBA factors for that stadium against that batter's handedness. Then game conditions: temperature, wind speed and wind direction at first pitch for outdoor parks, skipped entirely for domes. Then the confirmed batting order, because the difference between hitting second and hitting seventh is roughly half a plate appearance per game. Then the opposing bullpen's recent workload, since a gassed pen changes the innings 6 through 9 picture. Finally the game's Vegas implied team total, which is the market's own estimate of how many runs the offense scores.
Pitcher projections run on a separate track built around strikeout rate against the opposing lineup's whiff tendencies, expected innings, and the same park and weather adjustments applied in reverse.
How to read the columns
Projected points is the model's median expectation, not a ceiling. Value is projected points per thousand dollars of salary, which is the number that actually decides whether a player belongs in a cash lineup. Above 3.0 is strong at any salary tier, though the bar moves: a $3,000 hitter clearing 3.0 is common, a $6,000 hitter clearing it is a real edge.
Projected ownership estimates the share of lineups that will roster the player. Pair it with value. High value and high ownership is a cash play. High ceiling and low ownership is the shape you want in a tournament, and the two are rarely the same player.
When the board updates
A first build lands in the morning off probable pitchers. It rebuilds when official lineups post, which is when the batting order and any late scratches get priced in. Scratches after that are handled as they come. If you are setting a lineup, the confirmed-lineup rebuild is the one to wait for.
Frequently asked questions
Are these MLB DFS projections free?
Yes. The full board is free, for DraftKings and FanDuel.
How often do they update?
A morning build off probable pitchers, then a full rebuild once lineups are confirmed, plus late-scratch handling after that.
Do you cover FanDuel as well as DraftKings?
Both, with separate salaries and scoring for each.
What happens on a doubleheader?
Each game is treated as its own slate, so a player appearing in both shows up separately rather than being double counted.
How accurate are the projections?
Every day's output is graded against actual results on the Daily Recap page, so you can check rather than take our word for it.