NFL Elo Ratings
Every week is a match between an offense and the defense it faces at that position. A defense that gives up a big day to a premier tight end barely moves, because the rating already expected it. Raw points allowed cannot tell those two things apart.
Best spots, week 6
| # | Game | Attacking | Pos | Defense | Off | Def | Gap | Exp | Who plays there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI @ LA |  LAR | TE | ARI | 1579 | 1421 | +159 | 71 | Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson |
| 2 | DAL @ GB |  DAL | WR | GB | 1628 | 1498 | +129 | 68 | CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy |
| 3 | BUF @ LV |  BUF | QB | LV | 1600 | 1477 | +123 | 67 | Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky |
| 4 | WAS @ SF |  SF | QB | WAS | 1552 | 1433 | +120 | 67 | Brock Purdy, Mac Jones |
| 5 | BUF @ LV | BUF | RB | LV | 1577 | 1461 | +116 | 66 | James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis |
| 6 | DAL @ GB |  GB | WR | DAL | 1552 | 1445 | +107 | 65 | Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed |
| 7 | ARI @ LA | LAR | QB | ARI | 1567 | 1460 | +107 | 65 | Matthew Stafford |
| 8 | WAS @ SF | SF | TE | WAS | 1538 | 1431 | +107 | 65 | George Kittle, Jake Tonges, Luke Farrell |
| 9 | DAL @ GB | GB | QB | DAL | 1529 | 1426 | +102 | 64 | Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor |
| 10 | ARI @ LA | LAR | WR | ARI | 1593 | 1493 | +101 | 64 | Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Xavier Smith |
| 11 | PIT @ TB |  PIT | TE | TB | 1558 | 1463 | +95 | 63 | Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Connor Heyward |
| 12 | ARI @ LA |  ARI | TE | LAR | 1631 | 1542 | +90 | 63 | Trey McBride, Elijah Higgins, Josiah Deguara |
| 13 | ARI @ LA | LAR | RB | ARI | 1568 | 1479 | +89 | 63 | Kyren Williams, Blake Corum |
| 14 | CHI @ ATL |  ATL | RB | CHI | 1584 | 1500 | +83 | 62 | Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson |
| 15 | BUF @ LV |  LV | TE | BUF | 1580 | 1507 | +73 | 60 | Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, Ian Thomas |
Toughest spots, week 6
| # | Game | Attacking | Pos | Defense | Off | Def | Gap | Exp | Who plays there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU @ JAX |  HOU | RB | JAX | 1447 | 1536 | -89 | 38 | Woody Marks, David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan |
| 2 | NYJ @ NE |  NYJ | QB | NE | 1453 | 1528 | -75 | 39 | Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Brady Cook |
| 3 | LAC @ KC |  LAC | WR | KC | 1485 | 1553 | -67 | 40 | Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre Harris |
| 4 | SEA @ DEN |  DEN | QB | SEA | 1486 | 1545 | -60 | 42 | Bo Nix |
| 5 | LAC @ KC | LAC | QB | KC | 1472 | 1523 | -51 | 43 | Justin Herbert, Trey Lance |
| 6 | HOU @ JAX |  JAX | RB | HOU | 1490 | 1540 | -50 | 43 | Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Ameer Abdullah |
| 7 | BAL @ CLE |  CLE | RB | BAL | 1462 | 1512 | -50 | 43 | Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson, Trayveon Williams |
| 8 | NO @ NYG |  NYG | WR | NO | 1462 | 1509 | -48 | 43 | Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, Gunner Olszewski |
| 9 | SEA @ DEN | DEN | WR | SEA | 1488 | 1535 | -47 | 43 | Jaylen Waddle, Pat Bryant, Courtland Sutton |
| 10 | WAS @ SF |  WAS | TE | SF | 1464 | 1511 | -47 | 43 | Chig Okonkwo, Ben Sinnott, John Bates |
| 11 | BAL @ CLE | CLE | QB | BAL | 1458 | 1499 | -42 | 44 | Deshaun Watson, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders |
| 12 | CHI @ ATL | ATL | QB | CHI | 1441 | 1481 | -40 | 44 | Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa, Cooper Rush |
| 13 | ARI @ LA | ARI | RB | LAR | 1474 | 1512 | -38 | 45 | Trey Benson, Jeremiyah Love, Bam Knight |
| 14 | TEN @ IND |  TEN | QB | IND | 1426 | 1464 | -38 | 45 | Cam Ward |
| 15 | CAR @ PHI |  PHI | RB | CAR | 1434 | 1470 | -36 | 45 | Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, Dameon Pierce |
How to read it
Gap is the attacking team's rating at that position minus the defense's rating against it. A bigger gap is a bigger edge. This is the view to use in week 1, when every rating has been pulled toward average and the SMASH and TOUGH tags on the Week board almost never fire: the ranking still works because it compares the two sides against each other rather than against a fixed line. Who plays there names the highest rated players that team has at the position, using the 2026 roster rather than where they finished last season. The defense side of this model beat raw points allowed on the 2025 holdout, so trust the spot more than the exact name.
NFL Elo ratings, opponent adjusted
Every week is a match between an offense and the defense it faces at that position. A defense that gives up a big day to a premier tight end barely moves, because the rating already expected it. Raw points allowed cannot tell those two things apart.
The page rates NFL offenses and defenses by position (QB, RB, WR, TE) plus individual players, all opponent adjusted. The Best Matchups tab shows the biggest rating gaps on the week's slate, and the Track Record tab tests the defense ratings against raw points allowed on a holdout season.
Frequently asked questions
What are NFL Elo ratings?
Opponent adjusted ratings for NFL offenses, defenses by position (QB, RB, WR, TE) and individual players. A defense is not punished for facing a premier player.
What is the gap column?
The attacking team's rating at that position minus the defense's rating against it. A bigger gap is a bigger edge for the offense.
What do SMASH and TOUGH mean?
SMASH is a strong offensive spot, TOUGH is a difficult one, and EVEN is a neutral matchup, based on the rating gap between the offense and defense at that position.
Do the player ratings predict this week's score?
Player ratings are a ranking, not a projection. They carry across seasons and teams, but at predicting this week's score they are about level with a simple running average. Use the projections page to set a lineup.
Is the Elo ratings page free?
Yes, with a free account.