RB Workload Regression
Draft prior. Expected change is calibrated on recent workload-and-age buckets, not touches alone, and includes normal mean reversion. Risk flag, not a precise projection.
| Player | Team | Age | 2025 Touches | 2025 PPG | Exp Change | Proj 2026 PPG | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian McCaffrey |  SF | 30 | 413 | 24.5 | -3.90 | 20.6 | High |
Jonathan Taylor |  IND | 27 | 369 | 21.3 | -7.20 | 14.1 | High |
Bijan Robinson |  ATL | 24 | 366 | 21.8 | -2.90 | 18.9 | Elevated |
James Cook |  BUF | 26 | 342 | 17.8 | -2.90 | 14.9 | Elevated |
Derrick Henry |  BAL | 32 | 322 | 16.4 | -2.50 | 13.9 | Elevated |
Christian McCaffrey
SFRisk
High
Age
30
Touches
413
2025 PPG
24.5
Exp Chg
-3.90
Proj 2026 PPG
20.6
Jonathan Taylor
INDRisk
High
Age
27
Touches
369
2025 PPG
21.3
Exp Chg
-7.20
Proj 2026 PPG
14.1
Bijan Robinson
ATLRisk
Elevated
Age
24
Touches
366
2025 PPG
21.8
Exp Chg
-2.90
Proj 2026 PPG
18.9
James Cook
BUFRisk
Elevated
Age
26
Touches
342
2025 PPG
17.8
Exp Chg
-2.90
Proj 2026 PPG
14.9
Derrick Henry
BALRisk
Elevated
Age
32
Touches
322
2025 PPG
16.4
Exp Chg
-2.50
Proj 2026 PPG
13.9
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NFL running back workload regression
A regression prior for running backs coming off heavy usage, grouped by workload and age. It shows the expected change in points per game, a projected figure for the coming season, and a flag on the backs carrying the most regression risk.
Why heavy workloads regress
A back who handles 350 touches is at the far end of a distribution, and the far end is where the strongest pull back toward the middle exists. Some of that is injury, some is the committee that follows a heavy year, and some is simply that the season required an unusual set of circumstances to happen at all.
Age changes the shape of the effect rather than just the size. Younger backs coming off heavy seasons tend to hold their role and lose a little efficiency. Backs on the wrong side of the age curve tend to lose the role itself, which is a much larger fantasy hit than losing a few tenths of a yard per carry.
Workload and age interact, which is why the prior is built on buckets rather than a single formula. A 23 year old with 320 touches and a 29 year old with 320 touches are not the same bet, and averaging them produces a number that describes neither.
How to use this in drafts and best ball
In redraft the practical use is on the cost side. A back flagged for regression is not automatically a fade, but he needs to come at a discount to last year's finish rather than a premium to it. Paying the previous season's price for the coming season's role is the most common way drafts go wrong at running back.
In best ball the flag matters less, because the format is forgiving of a player who misses time as long as the ceiling weeks exist. Regression risk is a redraft and dynasty problem more than a best ball one.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a heavy workload?
Roughly 300 or more combined carries and targets in a season puts a back into the range where regression effects become visible.
Does this predict injuries?
No. It describes the average outcome for backs in a workload and age bucket, and injury is one of several reasons that average is lower than the prior season.
Is a regression flag a reason to avoid a back?
No, it is a reason to want a discount. The flag is about price, not about the player being bad.
Does age matter more than volume?
They interact. Younger backs usually keep the role and lose efficiency, older backs are more likely to lose the role outright.
Is the RB workload tool free?
Yes, the full board with a free account.