Run Gap Tool

NFL run gap efficiency by team

Where every team actually runs the ball, and how well it works in each lane. Gaps run from the edges through the tackles and guards to the middle, measured by expected points added per rush attempt, with quarterback scrambles excluded so the numbers describe the run game rather than broken plays.

Why gap-level data beats a team rushing average

A team rushing average hides the thing you want to know. An offence can be average overall while being one of the best in the league running off left end and one of the worst running up the middle. Those are different plays with different blockers, and they succeed against different defensive fronts.

The matchup read comes from putting the two sides together. An offence that leans on outside-zone runs to the left against a defence that gets beaten wide is a different projection than the same offence against a front with fast edge setters. That is a level of detail team-level run defence rank cannot give you.

Expected points added is used instead of yards per carry because a two-yard gain on third and one is a good run and a six-yard gain on second and fifteen is not. Yards per carry treats them the opposite way.

Using it for fantasy and for betting

For fantasy the practical use is identifying backs whose efficiency is a blocking story rather than a talent story. A back running behind a line that cannot generate anything up the middle will look worse than he is, and that gap often closes when the scheme or the personnel changes.

For betting, gap tendency is most useful on rushing yardage props and on team totals in games where one side is likely to run out a lead. A team that is efficient on the edges tends to hold leads better than one that only works between the tackles.

Frequently asked questions