Pitcher Health
Flagging starters whose velocity or release point has fallen off recent norms. When the radar gun tells the truth.
MLB pitcher workload and health tracking
Workload and velocity for every starter, with return timelines for pitchers coming back from injury. The purpose is to see the warning signs that show up before a pitcher lands on the injured list, and to know what to expect from one who has just come off it.
Velocity as an early warning
A sustained drop in fastball velocity is the most reliable public indicator that something is wrong with a pitcher. It usually appears weeks before an injury is announced, and it tends to coincide with worse results even when the pitcher keeps taking the ball.
The distinction that matters is sustained versus single-start. Velocity moves with weather, with adrenaline and with game situation, so one cold start means very little. Several starts trending down is a different thing entirely.
Workload is the other half. Large jumps in innings from one season to the next, especially for younger pitchers, are associated with worse outcomes, and a pitcher well past his previous career high in September is carrying risk the box score does not show.
What to expect from a returning pitcher
Pitchers coming back from significant absences are usually on a leash for their first several starts, which caps innings and strikeouts regardless of how well they pitch. That matters more for props and DFS than for whether the team wins.
Command tends to return more slowly than velocity. A returning pitcher can be throwing as hard as ever while walking more hitters than usual, and that combination produces short outings even in good matchups.
Frequently asked questions
How much velocity loss is a concern?
A sustained drop of roughly a mile per hour or more across several starts is worth attention. A single slow start is usually noise.
Does workload predict injury?
Large year over year innings increases are associated with worse outcomes, particularly for younger pitchers, though no measure predicts injury reliably.
How long is a returning pitcher limited?
Commonly several starts, with innings capped regardless of performance.
What returns last after an injury?
Command typically lags velocity, so a returning pitcher may throw hard while walking more hitters than usual.
Is the pitcher health tool free?
Yes, with a free account.