Weather to Watch
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Partly Cloudy, 79F | Wind: 5 mph ESE
It's 79 degrees for the 8 pm Eastern first pitch, with 43% humidity and no rain in the forecast. That warmth adds roughly 7% to home run odds for righties and about 4% for lefties. A 5 mph breeze won't move anything.
Model Bets
Over 7.5 (+100) | Philadelphia at Atlanta | Edge: +2.3%
The game simulation gives the Over a 50.1% chance, against 47.8% for the market once you strip out the vig. It fits what I see in both bullpens: each one has a clear hole against one side of the plate, and Grant Holmes has an ERA about a run better than his xFIP.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Lineup Splits
Philadelphia vs Ray Kerr (L), then Grant Holmes (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / CPT | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | R | $7,800 / $11,700 | 74 | .086 | 96 | .161 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | L | $9,400 / $14,100 | 150 | .256 | 128 | .279 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | L | $9,000 / $13,500 | 89 | .107 | 174 | .287 |
| 4 | Bryson Stott | L | $7,200 / $10,800 | 108 | .133 | 107 | .150 |
| 5 | Alec Bohm | R | $6,400 / $9,600 | 125 | .191 | 82 | .108 |
| 6 | Brandon Marsh | L | $6,600 / $9,900 | 68 | .132 | 103 | .154 |
| 7 | Edmundo Sosa | R | $4,400 / $6,600 | 131 | .202 | 50 | .159 |
| 8 | Justin Crawford | L | $5,000 / $7,500 | 74 | .067 | 88 | .093 |
| 9 | J.T. Realmuto | R | $5,600 / $8,400 | 63 | .077 | 76 | .142 |
The Phillies get a lefty for a turn through the order and a righty after that, so look at both columns. Schwarber and Stott are the only two who hit well from both sides. Bohm and Sosa only help you while Kerr is out there, and Harper is the reverse.
Atlanta vs Aaron Nola (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / CPT | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris | L | $7,600 / $11,400 | 116 | .171 | 127 | .210 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna | R | $9,800 / $14,700 | 111 | .185 | 127 | .201 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | L | $8,600 / $12,900 | 126 | .245 | 123 | .255 |
| 4 | Drake Baldwin | L | $8,200 / $12,300 | 96 | .137 | 147 | .197 |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubon | R | $6,200 / $9,300 | 86 | .128 | 109 | .120 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | S | $6,800 / $10,200 | 97 | .156 | 83 | .153 |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | L | $4,200 / $6,300 | 78 | .114 | 96 | .160 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | R | $6,000 / $9,000 | 88 | .112 | 81 | .158 |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | R | $3,800 / $5,700 | 4 | .097 | 78 | .127 |
Atlanta's top four all clear 120 against righties, and three of them hit left-handed. That's the part of the order that matters against Nola. Murphy's number against lefties comes from just 34 plate appearances, so I wouldn't read much into it.
HR Calls
Ronald Acuna (ATL) DK $9,800 | CPT $14,700 vs Aaron Nola
Acuna is the Atlanta bat I want at captain. He's put up a 127 wRC+ facing righties, a .201 ISO and 15 home runs, with 47% hard contact and a 13.2% barrel rate overall. Nola handles righties on paper, striking out 26.6% of them and walking just 3.1%, but the righties who square him up hit it out: 1.97 HR/9 and a 30.6% HR/FB. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 5.93 xFIP and 2.08 HR/9 against righties over the last 30 days, so he'll keep getting good looks late.
Bryce Harper (PHI) DK $9,000 | CPT $13,500 vs Ray Kerr
Kerr is an opener, and he's in there to get through Schwarber and Harper once from the left side. That first trip is Harper's weak spot, at an 89 wRC+ against lefties. Everything after it is Holmes, and Harper's had a monster year against righties: 174 wRC+, .287 ISO, 25 home runs. Holmes walks 11.1% of lefties and allows 46.5% hard contact to them, with an 18.1% HR/FB. He's $400 cheaper than Schwarber, too.
Austin Riley (ATL) DK $6,000 | CPT $9,000 vs Aaron Nola
The overall numbers aren't pretty. Riley has an 81 wRC+ against righties and strikes out 31.6% of the time, which is why he's hitting eighth. The power is still there, though: 16 home runs against righties, 43.3% hard contact and a 12.3% barrel rate. Nola's HR/FB to righties and that Philadelphia bullpen give him a real shot, and $6,000 is the cheapest price on any Braves hitter with that kind of pop.
Hitters in Best Spots
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) DK $9,400 | CPT $14,100 vs Ray Kerr | Cash
Schwarber is the easy captain against a lefty opener. He has a 150 wRC+ with 15 home runs against lefties, which beats his line against righties. He pulls 54% of the balls he puts in play and leads both teams with a 17.2% barrel rate. Atlanta's bullpen has a 5.30 xFIP and 2.04 HR/9 against lefties over the last 30 days. He and Harper will be the two most popular bats in this game, and I'm fine eating that in cash.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) DK $8,200 | CPT $12,300 vs Aaron Nola | GPP
Baldwin is the one I keep coming back to. He hits cleanup and has a 147 wRC+ against righties, the best on the Braves, with a 15.9% barrel rate. Nola's walk rate jumps to 10.9% against lefties and they've hit 23.9% of their fly balls out against him. Baldwin projects to be one of the least popular Atlanta regulars, which makes him my favorite tournament captain on that side.
Matt Olson (ATL) DK $8,600 | CPT $12,900 vs Aaron Nola | Cash
Olson's split hardly moves: 126 wRC+ against lefties and 123 against righties, with an ISO over .240 both ways. That matters here because Philadelphia's late-inning lefties can't flip the matchup on him. He's got 25 home runs against righties and a 53.7% hard-hit rate. I'd use him in most Atlanta builds as the floor piece.
Bryson Stott (PHI) DK $7,200 | CPT $10,800 vs Ray Kerr | GPP
Stott doesn't care which arm he's facing: 108 wRC+ against lefties and 107 against righties, with a 16% strikeout rate both ways. There isn't much power, so he isn't a captain. He's the Philadelphia bat that keeps scoring through the switch from Kerr to Holmes, and that makes him a solid fifth or sixth piece.
Pitchers
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs ATL | DK $10,600 | CPT $15,900 | CASH
Nola is the only real starter in this game, and in Showdown that's worth something by itself. He strikes out 23.8% of hitters, and his xFIP against righties is 2.75. The problem is Atlanta's lefties, who get a .344 wOBA and a 10.9% walk rate off him. His last start lasted 1 inning and 21 pitches on 9/26, so he's rested, but playoff managers pull starters early. I'd play him at flex and leave the captain slot to a hitter.
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs PHI | DK $10,400 | CPT $15,600 | GPP
DraftKings lists Holmes as the long man behind Kerr, and he costs nearly what Nola does. I don't love it. His 17.9% strikeout rate is low for a $10,400 arm, he won't get the first inning or two, and Philadelphia's lefties put up a 109 wRC+ against righties. If you think he goes 5 innings and picks up the win, he's a tournament play. Otherwise I'm spending the money on hitters.
Sneaky Relievers
Ray Kerr (ATL) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
DraftKings prices every reliever at $4,000, and Kerr is the one most likely to get real innings. He opened on 9/25 and went 3 innings on 32 pitches, and every out is worth 0.75 points. His 1.49 ERA won't last, since it comes with a .143 BABIP and a 97.7% strand rate. He still walks only 3% of hitters, and 2 clean innings at the minimum price is a fine result. The risk is Schwarber in the second spot.
Dylan Lee (ATL) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Lee has the best swing-and-miss stuff on either staff, with a 19% swinging-strike rate and a 29.4% K rate. Lefties haven't hit a home run off him all year. He threw 16 pitches on 9/29 and 15 on 9/30, as the MLB bullpen usage tracker chart above shows. That's a workload flag, but managers don't save arms in an elimination game. I'd use him as a tournament dart for the strikeouts.
Brent Suter (ATL) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Suter is one of the most rested arms in the Atlanta bullpen, and he can go long. His last outing was a 3 inning start on 9/26 at 43 pitches. Righties have only a .283 wOBA against him. If Holmes gets hit early, Suter is the one who can soak up multiple innings, and multiple innings are where a $4,000 pitcher gets paid.
Jhoan Duran (PHI) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Duran is the best reliever in this game by a wide margin: 35.6% K rate, 1.52 xFIP, 1.55 SIERA. He threw 27 pitches across 2 innings on 9/29 and didn't pitch on 9/30, so he's had a day off. He doesn't give up much, and no other $4,000 arm is more likely to rack up 3 or more strikeouts. He's my favorite reliever on the board.
Tim Mayza (PHI) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Mayza hasn't pitched in the last 5 days, and Atlanta stacks lefties at 1, 3 and 4. He holds lefties to a .271 wOBA with a 2.82 xFIP. Righties hit him hard, at 49% hard contact, so he's a matchup lefty and not a multi-inning arm. At $4,000 he gets you a piece of the Philadelphia bullpen without paying $10,800 for Luzardo.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grant Holmes (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Holmes has a 3.45 ERA over 151.2 innings, but his xFIP is 4.56 and his SIERA is 4.34. Most of that gap comes from a .259 BABIP and an 82.9% strand rate. He's also allowed a 16.7% HR/FB. The Phillies lefties are the ones who benefit, and Harper is my favorite way to use it.
Aaron Nola (PHI), Positive Regression Candidate
Nola has a 4.68 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.73 and his SIERA is 3.44. Home runs did most of the damage, with a 15.9% HR/FB rate that's well above the league norm. That doesn't make him safe against this lineup, but he's a better pitcher than his ERA.
Final Thoughts
For cash, I'd put Harper at captain with Nola, Olson, Stott, Kerr and Duran at flex. That comes to $47,900 and gets you both cheap relievers who should pitch. If you'd rather go with the chalk, Schwarber at captain costs $600 more, and dropping Stott to Marsh pays for it.
Before lock, check the Phillies card. DraftKings has Edmundo Sosa tagged day-to-day, and he's projected to bat seventh, where his 131 wRC+ against lefties only matters for one trip through. Luzardo and Wheeler are priced like starters at $10,800 and $12,000, but DraftKings has Nola as the starter, so don't pay starter prices for a relief appearance.
For tournaments, I'd build around Atlanta against Nola. Baldwin or Acuna at captain with Olson and Riley gets you the lefties Nola walks and the righties he gives up home runs to. Leaving Holmes off at $10,400 is what pays for it.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.