Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 4 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Tarik Skubal goes from about 6.4 projected innings to 5.5. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Partly Cloudy, 102F | Wind: 4 mph SE
It's going to be 102 degrees at Dodger Stadium with 17% humidity, and I'd expect the heat to lift the homer rate about 21% for lefties and righties alike. The 4 mph breeze runs across the field and won't matter. Nowhere else today comes close for hitters.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Mostly Clear, 64F | Wind: 6 mph ENE
Clear and 64 degrees with a 6 mph crosswind should cut homers by about 7%, a bit more for lefties. Progressive suppresses power on a normal day, so I'm not chasing homers in this one.
The Trop is a dome and American Family Field should have its roof shut, so the Yankees, Rays, Padres and Brewers all hit indoors.
Model Bets
Over 7 (-105) | New York Yankees at Tampa Bay | Edge: +2.9%
Gerrit Cole's fly-ball problem is why I'm not surprised by this one. The simulation has the Over at 51.8% and the market has it at 48.9%, and a Yankee bullpen I don't trust pushes the same way. It does work against my Drew Rasmussen card below, so don't treat both as locks.
Over 7 (-107) | San Diego at Milwaukee | Edge: +2.6%
This one cuts against my own pitcher picks. It's 52% in the simulation against 49.5% for the market, and Robbie Ray's ERA runs more than a run under his xFIP. I've still got Jacob Misiorowski as a cash arm in this game, so if you're on both, know they pull in opposite directions.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Lineup Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers vs JR Ritchie (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $6,500 / $4,200 | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,500 / $3,200 | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | L | $5,000 / $3,000 | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 4 | Will Smith | R | $4,000 / $2,700 | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 5 | Max Muncy | L | $4,400 / $3,100 | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,700 / $3,000 | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 7 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,400 / $3,000 | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 8 | Andy Pages | R | $4,100 / $3,400 | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | S | $3,800 / $2,800 | 115 | .170 | 97 | .122 |
Ohtani and Muncy hit both hands, so they keep their value after Ritchie leaves. Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages are the ones who gain if Atlanta goes to a lefty in the middle innings, at 151 and 149 against southpaws.
Atlanta Braves vs Tarik Skubal (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris | L | $4,300 / $3,100 | 116 | .171 | 127 | .210 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna | R | $5,100 / $3,600 | 111 | .185 | 127 | .201 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | L | $4,600 / $3,400 | 126 | .245 | 123 | .255 |
| 4 | Drake Baldwin | L | $4,200 / $3,300 | 96 | .137 | 147 | .197 |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubon | R | $3,100 / $2,700 | 86 | .128 | 109 | .120 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | S | $3,700 / $2,900 | 97 | .156 | 83 | .153 |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | L | $2,500 / $2,400 | 78* | .114 | 96 | .160 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | R | $3,500 / $2,600 | 88 | .112 | 81 | .158 |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | R | $2,300 / $2,300 | 4* | .097 | 78 | .127 |
Skubal is the problem for this group. Olson (126) and Harris (116) are the best of it against lefties, and Murphy's number against them is built on 34 trips to the plate, which is too few to trust.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Robbie Ray (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,600 / $3,700 | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | L | $5,300 / $3,500 | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 3 | William Contreras | R | $4,300 / $3,000 | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 4 | Gary Sanchez | R | $3,500 / $2,600 | 125 | .198 | 113 | .226 |
| 5 | Jake Bauers | L | $4,400 / $3,300 | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 6 | Luis Lara | S | $3,100 / $2,500 | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,000 / $2,700 | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
| 8 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,800 / $2,700 | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | R | $3,300 / $2,400 | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
This is the split that makes the Brewers work. Chourio and Bauers both hammer lefties, while Turang drops to a 77 against them, so I'm leaving him out of most builds even at $5,300.
San Diego Padres vs Jacob Misiorowski (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis | R | $5,900 / $3,900 | 172 | .273 | 116 | .154 |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | L | $3,200 / $2,600 | 84* | .000 | 112 | .103 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | R | $4,900 / $3,000 | 90 | .171 | 99 | .196 |
| 4 | Jackson Merrill | L | $4,500 / $3,200 | 104 | .160 | 103 | .196 |
| 5 | Ty France | R | $3,900 / $2,800 | 135 | .195 | 141 | .211 |
| 6 | Gavin Sheets | L | $2,400 / $2,500 | 31 | .046 | 114 | .215 |
| 7 | Xander Bogaerts | R | $3,400 / $2,700 | 84 | .065 | 97 | .131 |
| 8 | Jake Cronenworth | L | $2,900 / $2,500 | 80 | .060 | 81 | .106 |
| 9 | Ethan Salas | L | $2,600 / $2,300 | -27* | .000 | 128* | .250 |
Ty France has the best line against righties at 141, and he costs $3,900. Most of the rest of the order sits near average against righties, which is why I'm comfortable with Misiorowski in cash.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Gerrit Cole (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Diaz | R | $4,200 / $3,100 | 114 | .174 | 128 | .144 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | L | $3,700 / $3,100 | 95 | .091 | 133 | .188 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | R | $6,000 / $3,800 | 151 | .204 | 137 | .264 |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | L | $3,700 / $2,900 | 47 | .038 | 146 | .181 |
| 5 | Victor Mesa | L | $3,600 / $2,700 | 144 | .150 | 122 | .269 |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | L | $3,200 / $2,700 | 74 | .055 | 103 | .046 |
| 7 | Richie Palacios | L | $3,000 / $2,600 | 39 | .070 | 112 | .153 |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | L | $3,400 / $2,600 | 65 | .068 | 80 | .161 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | S | $2,900 / $2,400 | 54 | .068 | 86 | .081 |
I like the lefty side of this stack because of Hicks (146 against righties) and Aranda (133). Both Hicks and Palacios fall apart against lefties, so keep that in mind if New York goes to one late.
New York Yankees vs Drew Rasmussen (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | L | $5,400 / $4,100 | 116 | .206 | 162 | .305 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | L | $4,100 / $3,000 | 109 | .151 | 117 | .174 |
| 3 | Luis Garcia | L | $4,300 / $3,000 | 82 | .122 | 135 | .267 |
| 4 | Spencer Jones | L | $3,300 / $2,700 | 207 | .278 | 79 | .159 |
| 5 | George Lombard | R | $2,700 / $2,800 | 143* | .308 | 81 | .151 |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm | L | $4,200 / $3,100 | 78 | .163 | 106 | .170 |
| 7 | Trent Grisham | L | $3,500 / $2,900 | 95 | .142 | 99 | .201 |
| 8 | Austin Wells | L | $2,200 / $2,300 | 21 | .122 | 97 | .156 |
| 9 | Ryan McMahon | L | $2,200 / $2,200 | 51 | .035 | 84 | .166 |
Ben Rice is the Yankee I'd use against Rasmussen, with a 162 wRC+ and .305 ISO against righties. Spencer Jones and George Lombard only hit lefties, and Jones is batting cleanup anyway.
Cleveland Guardians vs Hagen Smith (L), then David Sandlin (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $3,300 / $2,700 | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Chase DeLauter | L | $3,800 / $3,100 | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | S | $4,800 / $3,200 | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $3,400 / $2,800 | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Travis Bazzana | L | $3,600 / $3,000 | 54 | .062 | 135 | .211 |
| 6 | Nathaniel Lowe | L | $3,100 / $2,700 | -17* | .022 | 126 | .214 |
| 7 | Angel Martinez | S | $4,000 / $2,700 | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | S | $2,800 / $2,300 | 35 | .085 | 77 | .137 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $3,200 / $2,600 | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
Cleveland sees a lefty first and a righty after, so both sides of the table matter here. Adell (165) and Ramirez (126) only help while Smith is out there, and Bazzana and Lowe are the reverse.
Chicago White Sox vs Parker Messick (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | L | $4,100 / $2,700 | 82 | .041 | 130 | .138 |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | L | $3,400 / $2,700 | 74* | .030 | 112 | .198 |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | R | $5,700 / $3,500 | 153 | .265 | 124 | .208 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | L | $5,200 / $3,600 | 109 | .195 | 136 | .302 |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | L | $3,000 / $2,600 | 40* | .022 | 103 | .191 |
| 6 | Tristan Peters | L | $3,100 / $2,500 | 73 | .091 | 123 | .183 |
| 7 | Chase Meidroth | R | $3,900 / $2,900 | 184 | .242 | 89 | .100 |
| 8 | Colson Montgomery | L | $3,600 / $2,800 | 116 | .226 | 78 | .197 |
| 9 | Braden Montgomery | S | $2,800 / $2,600 | 21 | .097 | 115 | .135 |
Messick has to get through Vargas and Meidroth, who sit at 153 and 184 against lefties. Antonacci and Benintendi lose most of their value against a southpaw. An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) DK $6,500 | FD $4,200 vs JR Ritchie
There's no reason to get cute at the top. Ohtani leads off in 102-degree heat against a righty who can't throw strikes to lefties: Ritchie walks 15.7% of them, with a 6.64 BB/9 against left-handed bats and 1.83 HR/9 allowed to them. That walk rate is a power issue, since a pitcher who's behind 2-0 all day has to come in with fastballs, and Ohtani's 17.1% barrel rate and 56% hard contact are built to punish them. He's $6,500 on DraftKings, the top of the hitter board, and $4,200 is the priciest bat on FanDuel too.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) DK $5,600 | FD $3,700 vs Robbie Ray
DraftKings has Chourio priced like a star, and against lefties he's earned it. He has a 166 wRC+ and a .242 ISO against southpaws, with 9 home runs in 171 plate appearances. Ray walks 12.6% of righties with a 4.84 BB/9, and the righties who wait him out get pitches to drive: 1.51 HR/9 with a HR/FB of 15.7%. $5,600 makes him a second expensive bat on DraftKings, while $3,700 on FanDuel fits more builds.
Victor Mesa (TB) DK $3,600 | FD $2,700 vs Gerrit Cole
Mesa's been one of the quieter power bats in the Rays lineup, and his price hasn't moved. He hits fifth and has a .269 ISO against righties, with 12 homers in under 200 plate appearances and a 13.5% barrel rate. Cole gives up a 23.8% HR/FB and 1.78 HR/9 to lefties. $3,600 is a value price on DraftKings, and $2,700 sits near the bottom of the FanDuel board.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs JR Ritchie (R) | Implied Total: 5.58 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | Cash
Everybody's going to be here, and I don't see a good reason to stay away. Los Angeles is implied for 5.58 runs, more than a run higher than anyone else on the board, and it's 102 degrees at first pitch. Ritchie has a 5.39 xFIP with a 5.29 BB/9, and the lefty side is where he falls apart: a .367 wOBA and 45% hard contact allowed. Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy all hit left-handed, and the Dodger lefties have a 119 wRC+ against righties as a group. Atlanta's relievers aren't much better, with a 4.75 xFIP, giving up 2.04 HR/9, in the matchups that apply here. It's chalk, and it's still my cash stack.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,000 (L), Max Muncy $4,400 (L), Will Smith $4,000 (R)
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs Robbie Ray (L) | Implied Total: 4.17 | ROO Score: 4.4/10 | Cash
Ray's ERA looks fine, and that's the trap. It's 3.73, but his xFIP is 5.03 and he walks 12.1% of the hitters he faces, which I'll get to in the regression section. Milwaukee's righties have a 105 wRC+ against lefties, and Chourio, Contreras and Gary Sanchez all clear that mark in the split. Jake Bauers is the odd one: a lefty with a 149 wRC+ against southpaws, and he should be the least popular bat of the group. The San Diego bullpen behind Ray is solid at a 3.53 xFIP, so this stack is about getting to Ray early. It's a cash stack for me, and it'll be popular, though nowhere near the Dodgers.
Core pieces: Jackson Chourio $5,600 (R), William Contreras $4,300 (R), Gary Sanchez $3,500 (R), Jake Bauers $4,400 (L)
3. Tampa Bay Rays vs Gerrit Cole (R) | Implied Total: 3.58 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | GPP
A 3.58 implied total against Gerrit Cole doesn't look like much on paper, and that's why I like it for tournaments. Cole has allowed 22 homers in 127 innings, a 1.56 HR/9, because 56% of the balls hit against him are fly balls. He hasn't started since 9/23, so I wouldn't count on a deep outing, and the Yankee relievers carry a 6.11 xFIP, with 2.00 HR/9 allowed, against this lineup. Tampa Bay's righties post a 114 wRC+ in same-side matchups, and Caminero has hit 34 of his home runs off righties. Liam Hicks (146 wRC+ against righties) and Aranda give you lefties who handle Cole's side too. I expect the Rays to draw a lot less ownership than the top two stacks.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $6,000 (R), Yandy Diaz $4,200 (R), Liam Hicks $3,700 (L), Jonathan Aranda $3,700 (L)
Bullpen Usage
Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta comes in with the more tired pen. Didier Fuentes pitched on 3 of the last 5 days for 46 pitches, and Grant Holmes and Chris Sale both worked in relief on 10/1. The Dodgers haven't used a reliever since 9/27, so Edwin Diaz and Alex Vesia come in rested behind Skubal.
San Diego at Milwaukee
San Diego used 6 relievers on 9/29 and 9/30, including Adrian Morejon at 29 pitches and Mason Miller at 19, so they've had 2 days off since. Milwaukee's bullpen last pitched on 9/27, and only 3 arms threw that day.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay
Neither pen is worn down. David Bednar's 22 pitches on 9/30 were the heaviest Yankee outing, and Tampa Bay hasn't used a reliever since 9/27, so the Rays have fresh arms if Rasmussen gets pulled early.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Chicago's bullpen threw the most pitches of any team on the slate: 8 relievers, with Grant Taylor at 54 on 9/29 and Erick Fedde at 34 on 9/30. Cleveland's lone relief outing in the window was Austin Peterson's 74-pitch bulk outing on 9/27, and nobody in that pen has thrown since.
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs ATL | DK $10,000 | FD $10,700 | CASH
I'll concede the heat is a real problem, and he's still my favorite arm. Skubal: 2.73 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 30% K, 4.4% BB. Atlanta's implied for 2.92 runs, and their righties have an 85 wRC+ against lefties. The 102 degrees adds home run risk, but his 6.3% HR/FB says he doesn't give up many fly balls that leave the yard. He's $1,100 cheaper than Misiorowski on DraftKings, while on FanDuel the gap is only $600, so the savings matter more on DK.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs SD | DK $11,100 | FD $11,300 | CASH
He's the most expensive pitcher on both sites, and he's worth it. Misiorowski strikes out 37.9% of hitters with a 17.3% swinging-strike rate, and lefties can't touch him: a 44.5% K rate and a .179 wOBA. San Diego is implied for 2.33 runs, the lowest number on the board. The 1.81 ERA sits a little under his 2.13 xFIP with a .238 BABIP, so some luck is in there, though not enough to keep me off him in cash. He'll be the chalk arm of the day.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs NYY | DK $8,800 | FD $9,600 | GPP
Rasmussen might be the best value in the middle of the pitcher board. He walks 4.8% of hitters, holds lefties to a .252 wOBA, and the Yankees run 8 left-handed bats out there. New York's implied for 2.92 runs. It's been 11 days since his last start, though, so I'd expect a short leash and fewer innings than usual, and that keeps him in the GPP pile. He's $8,800 on DraftKings, but $9,600 on FanDuel is harder to justify.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs CWS | DK $8,500 | FD $9,500 | GPP
Messick has pitched well all year, and his peripherals back up the ERA. He's at 2.56 with a 3.05 xFIP and a 25.8% K rate over 186 innings. The issue is Chicago's righties, who have a 118 wRC+ and .209 ISO against lefties. He gets a pitcher's park at 64 degrees, and the White Sox are implied for 2.71 runs. He only got through 3 innings in his last start. Tournaments only for me.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Robbie Ray (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
Ray's 3.73 ERA hides a much worse pitcher. His xFIP is 5.03 with a 4.53 SIERA, and he's walked 12.1% of batters with a 4.64 BB/9. Opponents have hit .265 on balls in play against him, so many of those walks never came around to score. Milwaukee's right-handed bats are the ones who should cash in, which is why they're my second stack.
David Sandlin (CWS), Positive Regression Candidate
Sandlin's 5.71 ERA doesn't match how he's pitched. He carries a 3.80 xFIP and a 3.12 SIERA, and he strikes out 24% of hitters. Most of the gap comes from a 53.8% strand rate, and that won't hold. He'll probably follow Hagen Smith today after throwing 1.1 innings of relief on 9/29, so I'm not playing him, but I'm not stacking Cleveland against him either.
Final Thoughts
For cash I'm starting with Skubal and Misiorowski. That's $21,100 on DraftKings and leaves $28,900 for eight hitters, about $3,600 a bat. Ohtani and Muncy are the Dodgers I'd lock in, Gary Sanchez at $3,500 gets you Milwaukee against Ray, and Mesa at $3,600 is the value bat. You'll need a couple of near-minimum bats to finish it.
Before lock, look at the Cleveland and Chicago game. Hagen Smith is the listed arm for the White Sox, but Sandlin will likely throw most of the innings, so Cleveland's bats see a lefty for one trip and then a righty the rest of the way. I'm staying off that game. It's also worth checking the Dodger Stadium forecast, since I'm leaning on that heat to justify eating Dodger chalk.
For tournaments, I'd go to Tampa Bay against Cole, with Caminero and Hicks as the core and Mesa as the cheap third piece. Rasmussen pitches for the same team, so he pairs well with that stack. Swapping him in for Misiorowski moves you away from the chalk arm without giving up much.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.