Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 2 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Chris Sale goes from about 6.2 projected innings to 5.3. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
San Diego at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Clear, 67F | Wind: 12 mph WNW
The roof should be open, with 67 degrees and a 12 mph wind blowing out. Wind rarely carries in that park with the roof open, so I'm treating the homer rate as normal and not chasing the forecast.
Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | Clear, 94F | Wind: 7 mph WSW
It's 94 degrees at first pitch with 24% humidity, which should push the homer rate up close to 20% for hitters on both sides of the plate. That's the best place to hit on a two-game board. It doesn't scare me off Blake Snell, but it's why I'd keep Chris Sale to tournaments.
Model Bets
Over 7 (-114) | San Diego at Milwaukee | Edge: +3.7%
Michael King's ERA sits a full run under his xFIP, and I don't buy it. The simulation has the Over at 54.7% against 51% for the market, which fits with Milwaukee as my second stack. FanDuel has already moved this total to 7.5, so check the number before you treat it as live.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Lineup Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chris Sale (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,500 / $3,200 | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $6,300 / $4,100 | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 3 | Will Smith | R | $4,200 / $2,700 | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman | L | $5,100 / $3,000 | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,500 / $2,900 | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,900 / $3,000 | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 7 | Andy Pages | R | $4,300 / $3,500 | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 8 | Max Muncy | L | $4,700 / $3,100 | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | S | $3,800 / $2,800 | 115 | .170 | 97 | .122 |
Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages and Max Muncy all sit at 135 or better against lefties, so they're the bats to own while Sale is in. Will Smith and Freddie Freeman do their damage against righties, which matters more once Atlanta goes to the bullpen.
Atlanta Braves vs Blake Snell (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronald Acuna | R | $5,000 / $3,800 | 111 | .185 | 127 | .201 |
| 2 | Drake Baldwin | L | $4,000 / $3,400 | 96 | .137 | 147 | .197 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | L | $4,500 / $3,600 | 126 | .245 | 123 | .255 |
| 4 | Ozzie Albies | S | $3,700 / $2,900 | 97 | .156 | 83 | .153 |
| 5 | Michael Harris | L | $4,100 / $3,100 | 116 | .171 | 127 | .210 |
| 6 | Mauricio Dubon | R | $3,000 / $2,600 | 86 | .128 | 109 | .120 |
| 7 | Lane Thomas | R | $3,000 / $2,400 | 127 | .177 | 76 | .146 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | R | $3,500 / $2,700 | 88 | .112 | 81 | .158 |
| 9 | Ha-Seong Kim | R | $2,200 / $2,100 | -32 | .032 | 42 | .015 |
Matt Olson and Michael Harris hold up against both hands. Lane Thomas is a lefty-only bat at 127, and Ha-Seong Kim has been close to an automatic out against southpaws.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Michael King (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,600 / $2,700 | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,900 / $3,900 | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 3 | Brice Turang | L | $5,200 / $3,700 | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 4 | William Contreras | R | $4,400 / $3,000 | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 5 | Jake Bauers | L | $4,400 / $3,300 | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | L | $3,900 / $2,900 | 71 | .119 | 101 | .151 |
| 7 | Joey Ortiz | R | $3,300 / $2,400 | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
| 8 | Luis Lara | S | $2,700 / $2,400 | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 9 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,200 / $2,700 | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
Jake Bauers is the one Brewer who hits both sides well, and Brice Turang's 151 against righties is the best number in this lineup for today's matchup. Yelich and Luis Lara don't give you much against either hand.
San Diego Padres vs Logan Henderson (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis | R | $5,700 / $4,000 | 172 | .273 | 116 | .154 |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | L | $3,200 / $2,600 | 84* | .000 | 112 | .103 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | R | $4,800 / $3,100 | 90 | .171 | 99 | .196 |
| 4 | Jackson Merrill | L | $4,600 / $3,200 | 104 | .160 | 103 | .196 |
| 5 | Ty France | R | $3,800 / $2,800 | 135 | .195 | 141 | .211 |
| 6 | Gavin Sheets | L | $2,400 / $2,500 | 31 | .046 | 114 | .215 |
| 7 | Xander Bogaerts | R | $3,400 / $2,800 | 84 | .065 | 97 | .131 |
| 8 | Jake Cronenworth | L | $3,100 / $2,500 | 80 | .060 | 81 | .106 |
| 9 | Ethan Salas | L | $2,700 / $2,300 | -27* | .000 | 128* | .250 |
Ty France is over 135 against both hands, which makes him the steadiest Padre here. Gavin Sheets only hits righties, and that's what he gets today.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Mookie Betts (LAD) DK $5,500 | FD $3,200 vs Chris Sale
Betts barely strikes out against lefties, 7.6% K, and that's what you want against a pitcher who misses this many bats. He's at 110 wRC+ and a .197 ISO against southpaws, and Sale's hard-hit rate climbs to 37.7% against right-handed hitters. Add 94 degrees at Dodger Stadium and I'm fine paying $5,500 for the leadoff spot. FanDuel has him at only $3,200 on a board that tops out at $4,100, which is the better deal of the two.
Jackson Merrill (SD) DK $4,600 | FD $3,200 vs Logan Henderson
Henderson's weak spot is lefties who can lift the ball. Lefties have a 21.3% HR/FB and a 41.2% hard-hit rate against him, far worse than what righties do. Merrill has 20 homers and a .196 ISO against right-handers this season, and he hits cleanup. That's a fair DK price for the profile.
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) DK $3,600 | FD $2,700 vs Michael King
DraftKings is overlooking Milwaukee's leadoff man at $3,600. Mitchell has a 124 wRC+, a .172 ISO and a 13.4% barrel rate against righties. King's BB/9 against lefties is 3.64, so he falls behind and has to come back over the plate with fastballs, and that's how a 14.6% HR/FB against lefties happens. Mitchell also strikes out 32.3% of the time against righties, so this one is boom-or-bust.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chris Sale (L) | Implied Total: 4.39 | ROO Score: 3.4/10 | Cash
Sale is the best pitcher on the slate by most measures, and I'm stacking against him anyway. The Dodgers lead the board at 4.39 implied runs, it's 94 degrees, and Sale threw 21 pitches in relief on Thursday after starting Tuesday, so I don't expect a long outing. Their righties put up a 112 wRC+ against lefties as a group, with Teoscar Hernandez at 151 and Andy Pages at 149. Once he's gone, Atlanta's relievers against lefties carry a 5.76 xFIP, which helps Muncy and Ohtani late. It's the chalk stack. I think the field is right.
Core pieces: Teoscar Hernandez $4,500 (R), Andy Pages $4,300 (R), Max Muncy $4,700 (L), Mookie Betts $5,500 (R)
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs Michael King (R) | Implied Total: 4.25 | ROO Score: 3.1/10 | Cash
King's 3.21 ERA looks fine until you see the 4.20 xFIP under it. He's leaned on a .260 BABIP and an 80.3% strand rate this year, and his 21% K rate doesn't leave him much margin. Milwaukee hits righties from both sides, 112 wRC+ from its lefties and 115 from its righties. Turang and Bauers are the two I want most, at 151 and 143 against right-handers. San Diego's bullpen is good against lefties, but Adrian Morejon threw 31 pitches on Saturday and 60 over the week. The field will be on Milwaukee too, and I'm fine sharing it in cash.
Core pieces: Brice Turang $5,200 (L), Jake Bauers $4,400 (L), Garrett Mitchell $3,600 (L), William Contreras $4,400 (R)
3. San Diego Padres vs Logan Henderson (R) | Implied Total: 3.25 | ROO Score: 2.3/10 | GPP
Henderson has been great on paper, and I think the field is too comfortable with him. His ERA is 2.48, but a .221 BABIP and an 87% strand rate are hard to repeat, and he hasn't started in 11 days. Lefties hit him hard: 41.2% hard contact and a 21.3% HR/FB. Ty France is at 141 against righties and Gavin Sheets has a .215 ISO against them at $2,400. Milwaukee's pen is better against righties (3.58 xFIP) than lefties (4.16), so San Diego's lefties are the ones to trust late. The Padres should come in lightly owned, and that's the reason to play them in tournaments.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $5,700 (R), Jackson Merrill $4,600 (L), Ty France $3,800 (R), Gavin Sheets $2,400 (L)
Bullpen Usage
San Diego at Milwaukee
San Diego's late-inning group is the tired one. Adrian Morejon threw 31 pitches on Saturday, Bradgley Rodriguez 19, Jason Adam 16 and Yuki Matsui 15, and Morejon and Rodriguez also worked on Wednesday. Milwaukee spread Saturday across five relievers, with Aaron Ashby high at 23 pitches and DL Hall at 20, so nobody in its pen is overworked.
Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers
AJ Smith-Shawver threw 53 pitches on Saturday and Brent Suter 33, so Atlanta's long men are probably limited tonight. Didier Fuentes worked Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The Dodgers are fresh. Four relievers worked on Saturday, and Alex Vesia's 15 pitches were the most of them.
Pitchers
Blake Snell (LAD) vs ATL | DK $10,000 | FD $10,500 | CASH
No pitcher costs more on DraftKings or FanDuel. He's still my cash pitcher. Snell: 1.92 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 31.8% K, 63.6% ground balls. He hasn't given up a homer in 42.2 innings, which won't last, but with that many grounders I'm not worried about the heat with him. The catch is length, since he's averaged about 4 1/3 innings over his last 5 starts, so you're paying for strikeouts and not a long outing. FanDuel's pitcher prices only run from $9,000 to $10,500 today, so he costs just $1,500 more than the cheapest arm there.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs LAD | DK $9,500 | FD $9,900 | GPP
I could argue this one either way. Sale: 2.16 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 30.9% K, 4.8% BB, and nothing in that line looks lucky. But he threw 21 pitches in relief on Thursday, and he gets the best offense on the slate in 94 degrees. He'll be broadly owned, so I'm under the field on him in tournaments and off him in cash.
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs SD | DK $8,600 | FD $9,500 | GPP
Henderson's last start came 11 days ago, so he probably won't go deep, and I won't build cash around him. The 29.6% K rate and 5.1% walk rate are real. The ERA is less so, with that .221 BABIP behind it. He'll be chalk at $8,600, and I'd rather spend up to Snell.
Michael King (SD) vs MIL | DK $7,500 | FD $9,000 | GPP
King is the cheapest arm on the slate on both sites, and that's about the only argument for him. His ERA sits a run under his xFIP and his K rate is ordinary. If you need salary for a full Dodgers build in a tournament, he's a dart, and he won't be popular.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael King (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
The ERA says 3.21, but the xFIP says 4.20 and the SIERA says 3.92, so his results beat his strikeouts and walks by roughly a run. A .260 BABIP and an 80.3% LOB are both on the lucky side of normal. Milwaukee is the team that gets the benefit today, which is why the Brewers are second in my stacks.
Final Thoughts
My cash lineup opens with Snell, and most of what's left goes to Dodgers bats, Pages and Teoscar first. Add Bauers or Turang from Milwaukee. Gavin Sheets at $2,400 is the salary relief I like most.
Before lock, check the roof in Milwaukee. It's expected open, and if it closes the 12 mph wind won't matter at all. I'd also see whether Atlanta keeps Ha-Seong Kim at the bottom of the order against a lefty, since he's been one of the weakest bats on the board against them.
In tournaments, the Padres against Henderson are my favorite contrarian stack, and rostering Sale is where you can be different at pitcher. Pairing King with a full Dodgers stack is the low-owned way to fit every expensive bat.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.