Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 2 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Cam Schlittler goes from about 5.8 projected innings to 4.9. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Clear, 60F | Wind: 9 mph NNW
It's 60 degrees with a 9 mph wind blowing in, which cuts expected homers by about 12%, a little more for righties than lefties. I'm not avoiding this game over it, but I'd lean on hitters who get on base over pure power bats here.
Tampa Bay is indoors at Tropicana Field, so the forecast doesn't touch the late game.
Lineup Splits
New York Yankees vs Freddy Peralta (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | L | $5,700 / $4,000 | 116 | .206 | 162 | .305 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | L | $4,300 / $3,100 | 109 | .151 | 117 | .174 |
| 3 | Luis Garcia | L | $4,700 / $3,000 | 82 | .122 | 135 | .267 |
| 4 | Spencer Jones | L | $3,200 / $2,700 | 207 | .278 | 79 | .159 |
| 5 | George Lombard | R | $2,700 / $2,800 | 143* | .308 | 81 | .151 |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm | L | $4,400 / $3,200 | 78 | .163 | 106 | .170 |
| 7 | Trent Grisham | L | $3,600 / $2,900 | 95 | .142 | 99 | .201 |
| 8 | Austin Wells | L | $2,100 / $2,300 | 21 | .122 | 97 | .156 |
| 9 | Ryan McMahon | L | $2,200 / $2,200 | 51 | .035 | 84 | .166 |
Rice, Garcia and Bellinger all hit right-handed pitching hard, and that's the matchup today. Spencer Jones is the odd one out, since nearly all of his production comes against lefties.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cam Schlittler (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Diaz | R | $4,000 / $3,100 | 114 | .174 | 128 | .144 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | L | $3,800 / $3,200 | 95 | .091 | 133 | .188 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | R | $5,800 / $3,700 | 151 | .204 | 137 | .264 |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | L | $3,600 / $2,900 | 47 | .038 | 146 | .181 |
| 5 | Victor Mesa | L | $3,400 / $2,600 | 144 | .150 | 122 | .269 |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | L | $3,100 / $2,700 | 74 | .055 | 103 | .046 |
| 7 | Richie Palacios | L | $2,800 / $2,600 | 39 | .070 | 112 | .153 |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | L | $3,300 / $2,600 | 65 | .068 | 80 | .161 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | S | $2,700 / $2,400 | 54 | .068 | 86 | .081 |
Caminero, Diaz and Mesa are the Rays who hit both hands. Hicks and Palacios are righty-only bats, which works in their favor today.
Cleveland Guardians vs Anthony Kay (L), then Sean Burke (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $3,300 / $2,700 | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | S | $5,000 / $3,300 | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | L | $3,800 / $3,100 | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $3,500 / $2,800 | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Angel Martinez | S | $4,100 / $2,800 | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 6 | David Fry | R | $2,800 / $2,300 | 88 | .146 | 103 | .197 |
| 7 | Angel Genao | S | $2,400 / $2,300 | 69* | .125 | 61 | .057 |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | R | $2,600 / $2,200 | 112 | .148 | 84 | .112 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $3,100 / $2,600 | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
DeLauter is the one Guardian who's good against both hands, and that matters with a lefty opening and a righty behind him. Adell is a lefty masher at 165 who drops to 66 once Burke takes over.
Chicago White Sox vs Gavin Williams (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Antonacci | L | $4,500 / $2,800 | 82 | .041 | 130 | .138 |
| 2 | Kyle Teel | L | $3,700 / $2,700 | 74* | .030 | 112 | .198 |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas | R | $5,400 / $3,400 | 153 | .265 | 124 | .208 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | L | $5,200 / $3,600 | 109 | .195 | 136 | .302 |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | L | $3,000 / $2,600 | 40* | .022 | 103 | .191 |
| 6 | Tristan Peters | L | $3,100 / $2,500 | 73 | .091 | 123 | .183 |
| 7 | Chase Meidroth | R | $4,200 / $2,800 | 184 | .242 | 89 | .100 |
| 8 | Colson Montgomery | L | $3,900 / $2,800 | 116 | .226 | 78 | .197 |
| 9 | Braden Montgomery | S | $2,800 / $2,600 | 21 | .097 | 115 | .135 |
Murakami and Vargas give Chicago real thump against righties. Meidroth and Colson Montgomery flip the other way, so I'd skip them against Williams.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Ben Rice (NYY) DK $5,700 | FD $4,000 vs Freddy Peralta
Rice has been one of the scariest left-handed bats in baseball against righties this year. He's got a 162 wRC+, a .305 ISO and 30 homers in 446 plate appearances against them, with a 16.4% barrel rate. Peralta gives up 1.43 HR/9 and a 17% HR/FB to lefties, and his 3.28 BB/9 against them means he's pitching behind in the count and grooving fastballs to get back even. That's the setup you want for a homer. He's $4,000 on FanDuel, the top of their hitter range, so DraftKings is the better place to pay for him.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) DK $5,200 | FD $3,600 vs Gavin Williams
I don't love the weather here, and I'm taking him anyway. Murakami: 136 wRC+, .302 ISO, 28 homers against righties, 21.2% barrels. Williams strikes out a ton of lefties, but they've hit 20% of their fly balls out against him, so the power is there when Murakami connects. Chicago has the lowest team total on the slate, which is why this is a one-off and not a stack.
Austin Wells (NYY) DK $2,100 | FD $2,300 vs Freddy Peralta
DraftKings has Wells near the minimum, and he's hitting eighth for a Yankees team I want to stack. He's hit 11 homers in 289 plate appearances against righties with a .156 ISO, which isn't flashy, but it's real power at $2,100. Peralta's problems against lefties apply to him too. He costs more on FanDuel at $2,300, so I'm only playing him on DraftKings.
Stacks to Target
1. New York Yankees vs Freddy Peralta (R) | Implied Total: 3.53 | ROO Score: 3.5/10 | Cash
New York's lefties are the cleanest way to attack this slate. Peralta's 4.42 ERA lines up with a 4.20 xFIP, so nothing about it looks unlucky, and left-handed hitters have a .330 wOBA against him. He also hasn't started since September 25, so I'd expect Tampa Bay to go to its bullpen early. That pen has a 4.62 xFIP and allows 1.34 HR/9 to lefties. New York's left-handed bats sit at a 105 wRC+ versus right-handers overall, led by Rice at 162 and Garcia at 135. This is the stack the field will play most, and I'm right there with them in cash.
Core pieces: Ben Rice $5,700 (L), Luis Garcia $4,700 (L), Cody Bellinger $4,300 (L), Jazz Chisholm $4,400 (L)
2. Cleveland Guardians vs Anthony Kay (L) | Implied Total: 3.79 | ROO Score: 3.1/10 | Cash
Cleveland has the highest team total on the board, but this one comes with a catch. DraftKings prices Sean Burke at $7,000 next to Kay at $5,000, and Kay already threw 22 pitches in relief on Saturday, so I'd plan on Kay opening and Burke taking the bulk of the innings. Kay is bad against righties (.379 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9), but Cleveland's hitters will probably see him once. Burke is the real matchup, and his 3.35 ERA sits well under a 4.22 xFIP thanks to a 6.6% HR/FB that won't hold. That's why I want DeLauter and the switch hitters, who don't care which arm is on the mound. It'll be chalk, and with the wind blowing in I'm a little less excited than the field.
Core pieces: Chase DeLauter $3,800 (L), Jose Ramirez $5,000 (S), Angel Martinez $4,100 (S), Brayan Rocchio $3,100 (S)
3. Tampa Bay Rays vs Cam Schlittler (R) | Implied Total: 2.97 | ROO Score: 2.6/10 | GPP
Few people will stack against Schlittler, and that's the point. Schlittler should only go about 5 innings under our playoff leash, and the Yankees' bullpen behind him has a 6.46 xFIP and 2.14 HR/9 against left-handed hitters. Paul Blackburn has also thrown 43 pitches over the last week. Tampa Bay's right-handed bats post a 114 wRC+ versus same-side pitching, and Caminero, Hicks and Aranda are all over 130 against them. You're betting on getting into that bullpen, and that's a GPP bet and nothing more.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $5,800 (R), Liam Hicks $3,600 (L), Jonathan Aranda $3,800 (L), Yandy Diaz $4,000 (R)
Bullpen Usage
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Chicago's pen has been worked hard. Grant Taylor threw 54 pitches last Tuesday and 42 on Saturday, and Jordan Hicks went 3 times in 5 days. Cleveland is in much better shape: five relievers worked on Saturday, Erik Sabrowski's 20 pitches were the most, and none of them had pitched earlier in the week.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay
Paul Blackburn is the Yankee arm to watch after 18 pitches last Tuesday and 25 on Saturday. David Bednar threw 22 on Wednesday but should be fine. Tampa Bay is about as rested as a playoff pen gets, with Bryan Baker's 14 pitches on Saturday the only relief work in the window.
Pitchers
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs TB | DK $10,200 | FD $11,000 | CASH
He's the priciest arm on both sites, and I'm paying it. Schlittler: 1.96 ERA, 2.34 SIERA, 31.4% K, 6.4% BB. The ERA is a bit lower than his xFIP because of a .254 BABIP, but a SIERA that low tells me most of this is skill. The leash is the only worry, since he's projected for about 5 innings. Expect him to be the most popular arm on the slate, and I'm fine sharing him with the field.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs CWS | DK $8,700 | FD $10,100 | GPP
Williams is better than his ERA. He's at 3.76, but the xFIP is 2.69 with a 33.2% strikeout rate, so a 15.3% HR/FB has been doing most of the damage. His last start was September 25, so I don't want him as my cash anchor. With the wind blowing in, the homers that have hurt him are a little less likely today, and that's why I'd take him in tournaments. FanDuel's pitcher board runs from $6,800 to $11,000, so he costs much more of your FD cap than on DraftKings.
Freddy Peralta (TB) vs NYY | DK $6,500 | FD $8,600 | GPP
This is a price play and not much more. DraftKings has him at $6,500, $3,700 under Schlittler, but he gets the Yankee lefties I'm stacking and hasn't started since September 25. His numbers are pretty much what they look like. A 21.4% K rate doesn't give him much upside. He's a salary dart if you want to fit three or four expensive Yankees.
Sean Burke (CWS) vs CLE | DK $7,000 | FD $9,300 | GPP
Burke should get most of the innings behind Kay, so there's a real chance he works 4 or 5 frames in relief. That's enough for a win, but probably no quality start. His 25.8% K rate is decent, but a 4.22 xFIP says the ERA is running ahead of him. He'll come in at moderate ownership. He's a tournament dart, and I won't lose sleep if I end up without him.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Sean Burke (CWS), Negative Regression Candidate
Burke has a 3.35 ERA, but his xFIP is 4.22, and he gets a lot of fly balls (43.4%) while only 6.6% of them have left the yard. That number will climb. A 79.4% strand rate adds to it. Cleveland gets the benefit today, and it's why I'm still willing to play the Guardians even with the opener mess.
Gavin Williams (CLE), Positive Regression Candidate
Williams' ERA is more than a run above his 2.69 xFIP. A 15.3% HR/FB, much of it from righties, has been the problem, and his 33.2% K rate is among the best on the board. I'd buy the arm going forward, and the wind blowing in at Progressive Field helps today.
Final Thoughts
My cash build opens with Schlittler and puts most of my hitting budget into Rice and Garcia. DeLauter is the Cleveland bat I want there, since he hits both hands, and Wells at $2,100 frees up money for everything else.
Before lock, look at how Chicago lines up its pitching. If Burke starts instead of Kay, Adell and Hedges lose their platoon edge and the switch hitters get more valuable. Aaron Judge is priced at $5,500 but isn't in the New York order I'm using, so check the Yankees' card too. If he's in, he goes right into the stack.
In tournaments, Tampa Bay against Schlittler is my favorite contrarian stack, since the Yankees' bullpen is where the runs come from. Williams is the pitcher to take a chance on if you're fading the chalk, and Murakami works as a one-off with a Yankees stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.