Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 2 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Chris Sale goes from about 6.4 projected innings to 5.5. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 74F | Wind: 4 mph ENE
It's 74 degrees and clear with a 4 mph breeze blowing in, so the forecast barely moves anything at Truist. I'd grade this game on the two starters and the bullpens.
Milwaukee at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 84F | Wind: 8 mph NW
Clear and 84 degrees at Petco, with an 8 mph wind blowing in. The heat matters more than the wind, and expected homers run about 5% above normal, a bit more for lefties than righties, so this is the game I want most of my bats from.
Lineup Splits
San Diego Padres vs Dustin May (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis | R | $5,800 / $4,100 | 172 | .273 | 116 | .154 |
| 2 | Dustin Harris | L | $3,300 / $2,600 | 84* | .000 | 112 | .103 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | R | $4,800 / $3,100 | 90 | .171 | 99 | .196 |
| 4 | Jackson Merrill | L | $4,600 / $3,200 | 104 | .160 | 103 | .196 |
| 5 | Ty France | R | $3,700 / $2,800 | 135 | .195 | 141 | .211 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | R | $3,600 / $2,800 | 84 | .065 | 97 | .131 |
| 7 | Ethan Salas | L | $2,400 / $2,300 | -27* | .000 | 128* | .250 |
| 8 | Luis Campusano | R | $3,100 / $2,600 | 131 | .152 | 124 | .172 |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | L | $2,800 / $2,500 | 80 | .060 | 81 | .106 |
Tatis, France and Campusano all hit both hands, and France's 141 against righties tops this order. Salas shows a 128 against righties in a tiny sample, so I'm not leaning on it.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Nick Pivetta (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,700 / $4,000 | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | L | $5,200 / $3,800 | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | L | $4,100 / $3,300 | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 4 | William Contreras | R | $4,300 / $3,000 | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,500 / $2,700 | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | L | $3,700 / $2,900 | 71 | .119 | 101 | .151 |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,200 / $2,700 | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
| 8 | Luis Lara | S | $2,800 / $2,400 | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | R | $3,100 / $2,400 | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
Bauers handles lefties and righties alike, at 149 and 143. Turang is a righty-only bat, 151 against them and 77 against lefties, which works for him tonight.
Atlanta Braves vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Harris | L | $3,800 / $3,100 | 116 | .171 | 127 | .210 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna | R | $4,900 / $3,700 | 111 | .185 | 127 | .201 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | L | $4,400 / $3,600 | 126 | .245 | 123 | .255 |
| 4 | Drake Baldwin | L | $3,900 / $3,400 | 96 | .137 | 147 | .197 |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubon | R | $3,000 / $2,600 | 86 | .128 | 109 | .120 |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies | S | $3,500 / $2,900 | 97 | .156 | 83 | .153 |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | L | $2,400 / $2,400 | 78* | .114 | 96 | .160 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | R | $3,400 / $2,700 | 88 | .112 | 81 | .158 |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | R | $2,500 / $2,300 | 4* | .097 | 78 | .127 |
Olson and Harris hit both hands. Baldwin's 147 against righties leads this lineup, while Riley and Murphy are below average against them.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chris Sale (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $6,000 / $3,900 | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,500 / $3,100 | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | L | $5,000 / $3,000 | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 4 | Will Smith | R | $3,800 / $2,700 | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 5 | Max Muncy | L | $4,500 / $3,200 | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,700 / $3,000 | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 7 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,200 / $2,900 | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 8 | Andy Pages | R | $4,000 / $3,500 | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | S | $3,600 / $2,800 | 115 | .170 | 97 | .122 |
Ohtani and Muncy hit lefties and righties alike. Pages and Teoscar Hernandez are the righties built for Sale, at 149 and 151 against left-handed pitching.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Fernando Tatis (SD) DK $5,800 | FD $4,100 vs Dustin May
Tatis is the most expensive bat I'm calling, and he's priced like it on both sites. His 116 wRC+ and .154 ISO against righties are good, not great, so the case is contact quality: a 12.7% barrel rate and 55% hard-hit. May has allowed 46% hard contact to right-handed hitters, and he's projected for only about 3.5 innings, so Tatis should see him at least twice before the bullpen takes over. At $4,100 he sits at the top of the FanDuel hitter range, which makes DraftKings the better place to own him.
Matt Olson (ATL) DK $4,400 | FD $3,600 vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto is a tough draw, but lefties have found one soft spot. They've hit 10 homers off him in 378 batters faced, and 18.9% of their fly balls have left the yard. Olson against righties: 123 wRC+, .255 ISO, 15.4% barrels, 53.7% hard-hit. He's $4,400 on DraftKings for that power, a mid-tier price, and I'd play him even without the rest of Atlanta.
Ty France (SD) DK $3,700 | FD $2,800 vs Dustin May
France doesn't get talked about much, yet few San Diego bats have hit right-handed pitching better. He's at a 141 wRC+ with a .211 ISO in that split, and he's hitting fifth. May's ERA is worse than his stuff, I'll grant that, yet righties have still doubled off him 15 times in 250 batters faced. At $3,700 he's a value-tier price for a bat hitting this well against righties.
Stacks to Target
1. San Diego Padres vs Dustin May (R) | Implied Total: 4.15 | ROO Score: 3.2/10 | Cash
San Diego leads the board at 4.15 runs, and nothing else is close. May's 4.71 ERA overstates how bad he's been, since the xFIP is 3.81 and a .320 BABIP did a lot of the damage. The leash is the bigger story. He's averaged 3.4 innings a start across his last 5 and hasn't pitched since September 26, which puts Milwaukee's bullpen in the game early, and Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill both worked Saturday and Sunday. France and Campusano both crush righties, Tatis is solid against them, and Merrill gets the soft side of May's split, since lefties have a .337 wOBA against him. This is the chalk stack, and in cash I'm on it with everyone else.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $5,800 (R), Ty France $3,700 (R), Luis Campusano $3,100 (R), Jackson Merrill $4,600 (L)
2. Milwaukee Brewers vs Nick Pivetta (R) | Implied Total: 3.35 | ROO Score: 2.3/10 | GPP
This stack goes straight at my cash pitcher, and I'm OK with that in tournaments. Pivetta strikes out 30% of hitters, but he's only thrown 34.2 innings this season and projects for about 4, so a big chunk of this game belongs to San Diego's bullpen. Mason Miller threw 40 pitches on Sunday, and that pen has a 4.28 xFIP against right-handed hitters. Milwaukee's lefties post a 112 wRC+ against righties, led by Turang at 151 and Bauers at 143. Most rosters will take the San Diego side of this game, so the Brewers are my contrarian way into it.
Core pieces: Brice Turang $5,200 (L), Jake Bauers $4,100 (L), Jackson Chourio $5,700 (R), William Contreras $4,300 (R)
3. Atlanta Braves vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) | Implied Total: 3.25 | ROO Score: 1.8/10 | GPP
It's funny to stack against the second-priciest arm on the board, but I think the price is paying for the ERA. Yamamoto's 2.53 ERA sits on a .217 BABIP and an 80.7% strand rate, his xFIP is 3.11, and his last start came on September 23. Atlanta's lefties post a 109 wRC+ and .183 ISO against righties, and Baldwin leads that group at 147, with Olson right behind at 123. The catch is the Dodgers' pen, with a 2.02 xFIP against lefties, so you need the damage early. Atlanta's bats should be the least popular group tonight, which is fine by me, and I'd still roster a few.
Core pieces: Matt Olson $4,400 (L), Drake Baldwin $3,900 (L), Michael Harris $3,800 (L), Ronald Acuna $4,900 (R)
Bullpen Usage
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta
Roki Sasaki threw 36 pitches in relief on Sunday and Edgardo Henriquez added 21, but nobody else in the Dodgers' pen worked hard. Atlanta's is the tired one. Didier Fuentes threw 47 pitches Sunday and has pitched on 4 of the last 7 days, and Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias have each gone 3 times.
Milwaukee at San Diego
Milwaukee used Uribe, Megill and Aaron Ashby on both Saturday and Sunday, so the late innings could look different tonight. San Diego's Mason Miller threw 40 pitches Sunday, and Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez have each pitched 3 times in the window.
Pitchers
Nick Pivetta (SD) vs MIL | DK $7,500 | FD $8,400 | CASH
Pivetta's the arm I trust most for cash, and the price helps. Pivetta: 2.89 ERA, 2.36 SIERA, 30% K, 5.7% BB. I don't see any luck propping that up, and he's on a normal turn after starting September 30. The downside is length. He projects for about 4 innings, so the strikeouts have to carry him. He'll be lightly owned, and $7,500 on DraftKings leaves room for the San Diego bats. On FanDuel he's $8,400 on a pitcher board that runs from $7,600 to $10,400, so the savings shrink there.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs LAD | DK $10,000 | FD $10,100 | CASH
Sale owns the best strikeout rate on the slate at 30.9%, with a 1.72 BB/9 and a 2.22 SIERA, and his 2.16 ERA is pretty much earned. The one flag is workload. He worked 1.1 innings out of the bullpen on October 1, 2 days after his last start, so I wouldn't count on a deep outing. He'll be chalk next to Yamamoto, and on a 2-game slate I'm happy pairing him with Pivetta.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs ATL | DK $9,500 | FD $10,400 | GPP
Yamamoto's ERA looks like an ace's, but the rest of his line sits a step below that. A .217 BABIP and an 80.7% strand rate are holding the 2.53 ERA up, and his 25.7% K rate is well short of Sale's. He's been off since September 23, so the leash could be tight. FanDuel flips the order and makes him the priciest arm at $10,400, $300 more than Sale. I'd only use him in tournaments.
Dustin May (MIL) vs SD | DK $6,000 | FD $7,600 | GPP
DraftKings and FanDuel both price May lowest of the four, and he's better than his ERA. The 4.71 ERA comes with a 3.81 xFIP, a .320 BABIP and a 67.6% strand rate, all signs of bad luck. But it's been 10 days since he pitched, the outings have been short, and he draws San Diego's 4.15-run total. Tournaments only, and I won't have much.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Negative Regression Candidate
Yamamoto's 2.53 ERA is about a half run under his 3.11 xFIP, and batted-ball luck explains most of it. Hitters have a .217 BABIP against him, which won't hold, and 14.1% of the fly balls against him have left the park. Atlanta is the lineup that cashes in on that today, so I'm willing to go there in GPPs.
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
May has been unlucky. A .320 BABIP and a 67.6% strand rate have his ERA almost a full run above his xFIP, and a 3.52 SIERA says the arm is fine. That doesn't change tonight much, since his short outings keep Milwaukee's pen in play, but I'd buy him going forward.
Final Thoughts
Cash lineups for me open with Pivetta and Sale, then go heavy on San Diego. Tatis and France are the anchors, and Campusano at $3,100 is the salary save that lets you fit Olson as a one-off.
Before lock, see whether Milwaukee starts May or turns it into a bullpen game, because the projection has him at about 3.5 innings either way. Yamamoto's first start since September 23 is the other thing I'd watch. If he looks sharp early, Atlanta becomes a one-off spot and not a stack.
In tournaments, I like Atlanta against Yamamoto more than anything else off the chalk, and Milwaukee's lefties give you a way off the San Diego chalk inside the same game. Yamamoto and May are the arms to take a shot with, and Ohtani is a fine one-off if you want a Dodger without stacking into Sale.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.