Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 4 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Max Fried goes from about 6.0 projected innings to 5.1. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 69F | Wind: 6 mph ENE
It's 69 degrees with a 6 mph crosswind on the South Side, which is close to a neutral day. Right-handed power loses a hair, about 4% on expected homers, and that's all the forecast does here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 76F | Wind: 5 mph NNW
Clear and 76 degrees at Truist with a light 5 mph crosswind. Lefties pick up about 3% on expected homers, which is a small nudge toward the Dodger left-handed bats and Matt Olson on the other side.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 56F | Wind: 5 mph S
This is the cold one. At 56 degrees, expected homers drop about 8.5% in the Bronx, close to 10% for lefties, and that matters because the Yankee stack I like is built on left-handed bats. I'm still there, just with a bit less HR equity than the short porch usually gives you.
Milwaukee at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 79F | Wind: 3 mph NW
Petco is the warmest park on the board at 79 degrees, and the 3 mph breeze blowing in barely registers. The heat adds about 4% to expected homers, so it's a slightly better hitting night than Petco usually is.
All four games are outdoors today, so there's no roof to talk about.
Model Bets
Under 8 (-117) | Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Edge: +2.4%
The simulation has this Under at 54% against a 51.5% market, and it's built on a game where both clubs open with a short reliever and hand it to a bulk arm. Foster Griffin and Davis Martin should soak up the middle innings, with Martin's 4.9% HR/FB keeping the ball in the yard. FanDuel has since moved the total to 7.5, so the number you can get is worse than the one the sim saw.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lineup Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tyler Mahle (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $6,000 / N/A | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,500 / N/A | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | L | $5,000 / N/A | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 4 | Will Smith | R | $4,000 / N/A | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 5 | Max Muncy | L | $4,500 / N/A | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,700 / N/A | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 7 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,300 / N/A | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 8 | Andy Pages | R | $4,100 / N/A | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 9 | Tommy Edman | S | $3,800 / N/A | 115 | .170 | 97 | .122 |
Ohtani, Freeman, Smith and Muncy all sit at 130 or better against righties, which is the side they see today. Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages do their best work against lefties.
New York Yankees vs Nick Martinez (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Rice | L | $5,900 / N/A | 116 | .206 | 162 | .305 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | L | $4,200 / N/A | 109 | .151 | 117 | .174 |
| 3 | Luis Garcia | L | $4,600 / N/A | 82 | .122 | 135 | .267 |
| 4 | Spencer Jones | L | $3,200 / N/A | 207 | .278 | 79 | .159 |
| 5 | George Lombard | R | $3,000 / N/A | 143* | .308 | 81 | .151 |
| 6 | Jazz Chisholm | L | $4,300 / N/A | 78 | .163 | 106 | .170 |
| 7 | Trent Grisham | L | $3,600 / N/A | 95 | .142 | 99 | .201 |
| 8 | Austin Wells | L | $2,200 / N/A | 21 | .122 | 97 | .156 |
| 9 | Ryan McMahon | L | $2,300 / N/A | 51 | .035 | 84 | .166 |
Rice and Garcia are the righty-killers here, at 162 and 135. Spencer Jones is the opposite, a 207 against lefties but only 79 against righties, and Lombard's lefty number comes in a tiny sample.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Walker Buehler (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,700 / N/A | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | L | $5,200 / N/A | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | L | $4,200 / N/A | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 4 | William Contreras | R | $4,400 / N/A | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,700 / N/A | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | L | $4,000 / N/A | 71 | .119 | 101 | .151 |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,300 / N/A | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
| 8 | Luis Lara | S | $2,800 / N/A | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | R | $3,100 / N/A | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
Turang and Bauers do their damage against righties, at 151 and 143. Chourio hits both sides, though his best work comes against lefties.
San Diego Padres vs Robert Gasser (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis | R | $5,800 / N/A | 172 | .273 | 116 | .154 |
| 2 | Austin Hays | R | $2,600 / N/A | 161 | .180 | 24 | .060 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | R | $4,800 / N/A | 90 | .171 | 99 | .196 |
| 4 | Ty France | R | $4,000 / N/A | 135 | .195 | 141 | .211 |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill | L | $4,500 / N/A | 104 | .160 | 103 | .196 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | R | $3,500 / N/A | 84 | .065 | 97 | .131 |
| 7 | Luis Campusano | R | $3,100 / N/A | 131 | .152 | 124 | .172 |
| 8 | Samad Taylor | R | $3,400 / N/A | 116 | .085 | 133 | .095 |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | L | $2,800 / N/A | 80 | .060 | 81 | .106 |
Tatis, France and Austin Hays all crush lefties, and Hays is at 161 in that split at $2,600. Cronenworth is the lefty I'd skip, at an 80 against them.
Atlanta Braves vs Tyler Glasnow (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | L | $3,900 / N/A | 96 | .137 | 147 | .197 |
| 2 | Ronald Acuna | R | $4,900 / N/A | 111 | .185 | 127 | .201 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | L | $4,400 / N/A | 126 | .245 | 123 | .255 |
| 4 | Ozzie Albies | S | $3,500 / N/A | 97 | .156 | 83 | .153 |
| 5 | Michael Harris | L | $3,800 / N/A | 116 | .171 | 127 | .210 |
| 6 | Mauricio Dubon | R | $2,900 / N/A | 86 | .128 | 109 | .120 |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski | L | $2,400 / N/A | 78* | .114 | 96 | .160 |
| 8 | Austin Riley | R | $3,400 / N/A | 88 | .112 | 81 | .158 |
| 9 | Sean Murphy | R | $2,500 / N/A | 4* | .097 | 78 | .127 |
Baldwin tops this group against righties at 147, with Olson, Acuna and Harris in the 120s. Albies, Riley and Murphy all sit under 85 in that split, and the asterisks on Yastrzemski and Murphy mean very little lefty data.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Max Fried (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Diaz | R | $3,900 / N/A | 114 | .174 | 128 | .144 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | L | $3,600 / N/A | 95 | .091 | 133 | .188 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | R | $5,600 / N/A | 151 | .204 | 137 | .264 |
| 4 | Ryan Vilade | R | $2,400 / N/A | 125 | .205 | 81 | .149 |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca | R | $3,100 / N/A | 84 | .115 | 114 | .198 |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | L | $3,000 / N/A | 74 | .055 | 103 | .046 |
| 7 | Nick Fortes | R | $2,200 / N/A | 91 | .109 | 90 | .126 |
| 8 | Jorge Mateo | R | $2,200 / N/A | 46 | .094 | 60 | .123 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | S | $2,700 / N/A | 54 | .068 | 86 | .081 |
Caminero leads this lineup against lefties at 151, with Vilade next at 125. Most of this lineup is built for righties, which is a big part of why I like Fried.
Chicago White Sox vs Daniel Espino (R), then Foster Griffin (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | R | $5,300 / N/A | 153 | .265 | 124 | .208 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | R | $2,400 / N/A | 37* | .125 | -13* | .000 |
| 3 | Randal Grichuk | R | $3,300 / N/A | 177 | .327 | 67 | .200 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | L | $5,100 / N/A | 109 | .195 | 136 | .302 |
| 5 | Chase Meidroth | R | $4,100 / N/A | 184 | .242 | 89 | .100 |
| 6 | Brenton Doyle | R | $2,900 / N/A | 117 | .233 | 46 | .050 |
| 7 | Kyle Teel | L | $3,600 / N/A | 74* | .030 | 112 | .198 |
| 8 | Braden Montgomery | S | $2,700 / N/A | 21 | .097 | 115 | .135 |
| 9 | Luisangel Acuna | R | $2,100 / N/A | 45 | .057 | 55 | .038 |
Vargas, Murakami and Meidroth have real numbers, but this lineup sees a righty opener and then a lefty in bulk, so the splits flip after an inning or two. Pham's numbers come in tiny samples.
Cleveland Guardians vs Sean Newcomb (L), then Davis Martin (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $3,300 / N/A | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | S | $4,700 / N/A | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | L | $3,700 / N/A | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $3,500 / N/A | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | L | $3,000 / N/A | -17* | .022 | 126 | .214 |
| 6 | Angel Martinez | S | $3,900 / N/A | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | L | $3,600 / N/A | 54 | .062 | 135 | .211 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | S | $2,600 / N/A | 35 | .085 | 77 | .137 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $3,200 / N/A | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
Jo Adell's 165 against lefties lines up with Newcomb, but Martin is a righty, and Adell is only a 66 against them. DeLauter hits both sides, and Lowe's lefty split is a tiny sample.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) DK $6,000 | FD N/A vs Tyler Mahle
Ohtani is the bat I most want to own today, and nobody on the DraftKings hitter board costs more. Against righties he's at a 143 wRC+ with a .227 ISO, and the contact quality is even louder, a 17.1% barrel rate with 56% of his balls in play hit hard. Mahle has given up 12 homers to lefties in 338 batters faced, with 16.7% of their fly balls leaving the park. At $6,000 he's the priciest hitter on DraftKings, and I'll pay it.
Luis Garcia (NYY) DK $4,600 | FD N/A vs Nick Martinez
Garcia's a one-sided hitter, and tonight he gets the good side. He's a 135 wRC+ with a .267 ISO against righties, compared to an 82 against lefties, and he's hitting third. Martinez doesn't miss bats, with a 15.1% K rate, and lefties have taken him deep 13 times. The 56 degrees in the Bronx knocks a little off this one, I'll admit, but $4,600 is a fair mid-tier price for that split.
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) DK $3,700 | FD N/A vs Walker Buehler
Mitchell is the cheap bat I keep coming back to on this slate. He posts a 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and the batted-ball profile backs it up: 13.4% barrels and 54.9% hard contact. Buehler has a 3.86 BB/9 against lefties, so he falls behind and has to come into the zone, and lefties have 10 homers and a .339 wOBA against him. You're getting that power for $3,700.
Stacks to Target
1. New York Yankees vs Nick Martinez (R) | Implied Total: 4.47 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | Cash
New York leads the slate at 4.47 runs, and Martinez's ERA is the reason I'm comfortable sitting with the crowd. His 3.10 ERA comes with a 4.28 xFIP, a .267 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate, and a 15.1% K rate means a lot of balls in play for a lineup that hits them hard. Yankee lefties against righties: 105 wRC+, .189 ISO, 46.4% hard-hit. Ben Rice is at 162 against righties and Garcia's at 135, so the top third does most of the work. Tampa Bay's pen is rested and has a 3.99 xFIP, which keeps me from going all the way down the order. This stack will be popular, and that's fine for cash.
Core pieces: Ben Rice $5,900 (L), Luis Garcia $4,600 (L), Cody Bellinger $4,200 (L), Jazz Chisholm $4,300 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tyler Mahle (R) | Implied Total: 4.28 | ROO Score: 4.3/10 | Cash
Mahle has been fine overall, but righties have been a problem for him. They post a .349 wOBA with 42.8% hard contact and a 3.86 BB/9, compared to a .280 wOBA from lefties. So I'd lean on the right-handed Dodgers, Will Smith at 137 against righties and Mookie Betts at 118, around Ohtani and Max Muncy at the top. The bullpen behind Mahle has worked hard, with Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee each pitching 3 times in the last 7 days. It's the chalk stack, and I'm on it.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,000 (L), Will Smith $4,000 (R), Mookie Betts $5,500 (R), Max Muncy $4,500 (L)
3. Milwaukee Brewers vs Walker Buehler (R) | Implied Total: 3.68 | ROO Score: 3.2/10 | GPP
Milwaukee projects as one of the lighter-owned stacks tonight, and I think the projections are underselling it. Buehler has a 4.64 ERA, and righties have put 24% of their fly balls over the fence against him. He's also 11 days removed from his last start and has averaged about 4.5 innings across his last 5, so San Diego's pen should get plenty of this game. Bradgley Rodriguez has pitched 4 times in the past week, Yuki Matsui threw 23 pitches Tuesday and Michael King went 40 in relief. Milwaukee's righties post a 115 wRC+ against righties and its lefties a 112, led by Brice Turang at 151 and Jake Bauers at 143. This is my lower-owned tournament stack.
Core pieces: Brice Turang $5,200 (L), Jake Bauers $4,200 (L), Jackson Chourio $5,700 (R), Garrett Mitchell $3,700 (L)
Bullpen Usage
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Cleveland's pen is fresh, and no reliever there has thrown more than 20 pitches in an outing. Chicago's is the one that worked. Sean Burke threw 83 pitches Monday, Grant Taylor threw 42 on Saturday, and Sean Newcomb is opening today after throwing 40 pitches Monday.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta
The Dodgers used Edwin Díaz and Tanner Scott on Tuesday, and Roki Sasaki went 36 pitches Sunday, but nobody else went past 21. Atlanta's pen is worn down. Fuentes needed 47 pitches on Sunday. Iglesias and Brent Suter both worked again on Tuesday.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees
Both pens had Tuesday off. Ian Seymour's 41 pitches Monday are the only heavy load for Tampa Bay, and the Yankees have used Brent Headrick 3 times and Paul Blackburn twice.
Milwaukee at San Diego
The Brewers' late-inning arms are stretched. Abner Uribe pitched Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, and DL Hall and JoJo Romero threw 29 and 30 pitches yesterday. San Diego's usage is heavier still. Rodriguez and Matsui both pitched Tuesday, and Mason Miller threw 40 on Sunday.
Pitchers
Max Fried (NYY) vs TB | DK $8,500 | FD N/A | CASH
Fried's the arm I'm building around, and the matchup is the main reason. Tampa Bay has the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.03, and its right-handed bats are at a 96 wRC+ against lefties. Fried: 2.81 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, 24% K. The ERA runs a bit ahead of the peripherals, but not by enough to scare me off, and he's on normal rest after a 6-inning start on September 30. He'll be one of the two chalk arms, and I'll happily share him with the field.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs ATL | DK $10,000 | FD N/A | CASH
Glasnow is the most expensive pitcher on the board, and the strikeout rate is why. He's punching out 34% of hitters, and his 2.28 SIERA is far better than a 3.53 ERA that a 68.6% strand rate has dragged up. Glasnow last started on September 24, so I'd expect a shorter outing than his talent suggests. That keeps him as my second cash arm rather than the anchor, and he'll be the most popular pitcher on the slate.
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs LAD | DK $7,500 | FD N/A | GPP
This is a pure tournament play. Mahle's 3.99 ERA and 3.78 xFIP are close enough that what you see is what he is, and he went 7 innings on September 30. The problem is the Dodgers' 4.28-run total and the chalk stack that comes with it. If you want to fade Los Angeles, Mahle at $7,500 is the cleanest way to do it.
Robert Gasser (MIL) vs SD | DK $7,700 | FD N/A | GPP
Gasser sits in the middle of the pitcher price range, and this slate doesn't offer many arms there. His 3.63 SIERA is better than the 3.88 ERA, and he strikes out 22.2% of hitters. The risk is right-handed power, with 13 homers allowed to righties in 324 batters faced. It's been 12 days since he last started, so I'd keep him to GPPs and not lean on him for length.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Nick Martinez (TB), Negative Regression Candidate
Martinez has a 3.10 ERA and a 4.28 xFIP, and that's more than a full run of luck. A .267 BABIP and an 81.6% strand rate are carrying the ERA, and with a 15.1% K rate he can't keep stranding runners at that clip. The Yankees are the team set up to collect on it today.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD), Positive Regression Candidate
Glasnow's ERA sits about three-quarters of a run over his xFIP. The strand rate explains most of it. A 68.6% LOB with a 34% strikeout rate won't last, so the run prevention should catch up to the stuff. Atlanta's lefties are the only spot I'd consider against him.
Final Thoughts
For cash, I'm starting with Fried and Glasnow and then going to the Yankee lefties, with Rice and Garcia as the anchors. Ohtani fits as the one Dodger bat, and Luis Campusano at $3,100 against a lefty gives you the salary relief to fit the rest.
The Chicago game is the one to check before lock. Both clubs list a short opener, with Griffin and Davis Martin priced as the likely bulk arms, so I'm staying off both offenses until we know who throws the middle innings. I'd also check that Spencer Jones is still hitting cleanup for New York, since he's a 79 wRC+ against righties.
In tournaments, Milwaukee against Buehler is my favorite way off the chalk, and Mahle is the arm to pair with it if you're going against the Dodgers. Gasser is a reasonable SP2 at $7,700, and Matt Olson is the one Atlanta bat I'd take a shot with against Glasnow.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.