Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Division Series is underway with 1 game today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Parker Messick goes from about 5.3 projected innings to 4.2. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 57F | Wind: 6 mph ESE
It's 57 degrees at the 8 pm Eastern first pitch with a light wind blowing in, and that knocks about 13% off home run odds for hitters on both sides of the plate. Rate Field still plays a little friendly for power, but tonight it gives most of that back. I'm not chasing home runs in this one.
Model Bets
Under 7.5 (+104) | Cleveland at Chicago White Sox | Edge: +3.1%
The game simulation has the Under at 50.0% against 46.9% for the market. That's a cold night with the wind blowing in, and Parker Messick is the best starter in this game. It does cut against my Chicago bats a bit, since a 7.5 total doesn't leave a lot of runs to go around.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lineup Splits
Cleveland Guardians vs Hagen Smith (L), then Erick Fedde (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / CPT | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $6,400 / $9,600 | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | S | $8,800 / $13,200 | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | L | $7,600 / $11,400 | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $6,600 / $9,900 | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | L | $5,200 / $7,800 | -17* | .022 | 126 | .214 |
| 6 | Angel Martinez | S | $8,000 / $12,000 | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | L | $7,000 / $10,500 | 54 | .062 | 135 | .211 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | S | $4,400 / $6,600 | 35 | .085 | 77 | .137 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $6,000 / $9,000 | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
Cleveland sees a lefty for one turn and a righty after that, so the right-handed column is the one that matters most. DeLauter's the only bat in this lineup who's above 120 against both hands. Adell and Ramirez only help you while Smith is in the game, and Lowe and Bazzana are the opposite.
Chicago White Sox vs Parker Messick (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / CPT | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas | R | $9,600 / $14,400 | 153 | .265 | 124 | .208 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | R | $3,400 / $5,100 | 37* | .125 | -13* | .000 |
| 3 | Randal Grichuk | R | $5,800 / $8,700 | 177 | .327 | 67 | .200 |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | L | $9,200 / $13,800 | 109 | .195 | 136 | .302 |
| 5 | Chase Meidroth | R | $8,200 / $12,300 | 184 | .242 | 89 | .100 |
| 6 | Brenton Doyle | R | $5,000 / $7,500 | 117 | .233 | 46 | .050 |
| 7 | Kyle Teel | L | $6,800 / $10,200 | 74* | .030 | 112 | .198 |
| 8 | Braden Montgomery | S | $4,200 / $6,300 | 21 | .097 | 115 | .135 |
| 9 | Luisangel Acuna | R | $3,000 / $4,500 | 45 | .057 | 55 | .038 |
Chicago's righties at 1, 3 and 5 crush lefties, and that's why I like this side. Grichuk and Meidroth fall off a cliff against righties, so they're a bet on Messick staying in. Pham's numbers both ways are tiny samples, so I'm ignoring them.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Randal Grichuk (CWS) DK $5,800 | CPT $8,700 vs Parker Messick
Grichuk's built for this matchup. He has a 177 wRC+ and a .327 ISO against lefties, with a 14.8% barrel rate and 56% hard contact overall. Messick's been good against righties, but righties have a 16.2% HR/FB against him. The wind's blowing in, so it's not a perfect night. Still, $5,800 is a cheap price for this much power.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) DK $9,200 | CPT $13,800 vs Parker Messick
Murakami is the hardest hitter in this game: 60% hard contact and an 18.7% barrel rate. He's only a 109 wRC+ against lefties, so the Messick part is fine but not special. What I want is the late innings. Cleveland's bullpen has given up a .319 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9 to lefties over the last 30 days, and most of its better arms threw last night.
Angel Martinez (CLE) DK $8,000 | CPT $12,000 vs Hagen Smith
Martinez projects for some of the lightest ownership of any Cleveland regular, and I think that's a mistake. He switch-hits with a .221 ISO against lefties and a .205 against righties, so it doesn't matter much when Fedde takes over. He hits sixth, which means he should see Fedde twice. I'd use him as a tournament captain if you're building around Cleveland.
Hitters in Best Spots
Miguel Vargas (CWS) DK $9,600 | CPT $14,400 vs Parker Messick | Cash
Vargas leads off, so he'll get the most plate appearances on either side. He's a 153 wRC+ against lefties and still 124 against righties, with a .265 ISO against southpaws. That second number is what keeps him useful once Cleveland goes to the pen. He's my cash captain.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) DK $7,600 | CPT $11,400 vs Hagen Smith | Cash
DeLauter doesn't care who's on the mound. He's at 136 against lefties and 126 against righties, and that's what you want when Cleveland's going to see two pitchers from different sides in the first 3 innings. There's not much power here, so he's a flex piece, not a captain.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) DK $8,200 | CPT $12,300 vs Parker Messick | GPP
Meidroth has the best line in this game against lefties: 184 wRC+ with a .242 ISO. He's an 89 against righties, though, and Cleveland's pen holds righties to a .224 wOBA. So you're betting he does his damage in the first two trips. That's a narrow window, so he's a tournament bat for me.
Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) DK $5,200 | CPT $7,800 vs Hagen Smith | GPP
Ignore the -17 against lefties, it's a tiny sample. Lowe's the guy who gets most of his plate appearances against Fedde, and he's a 126 wRC+ with a .214 ISO against righties. Fedde's walked 10.4% of lefties this year. He's cheap with real power, and the matchup gets better for him as the game goes on.
Bullpen Usage
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Both pens worked hard in last night's 9-3 Cleveland win. Foster Griffin threw 53 pitches and Joey Cantillo threw 25 for Cleveland, and Chicago used 7 arms, including 45 pitches from Noah Schultz and 31 from Davis Martin. I wouldn't expect anyone on either side to go long unless he sat out last night.
Starter Leash Watch
These notes come from how the two managers have run their pitchers this week. Our projections price relievers by how often they pitch and how they've pitched, but they can't see a manager's plan. So read these as my best guess at who throws when.
Parker Messick (CLE) | DK $12,400 | CPT $18,600
Messick threw 87 pitches over 4.1 innings in Game 1, with 6 strikeouts and 2 runs. His September starts ran 86 to 105 pitches, with one short outing of 64. He's on 5 days of rest, so he's fresh. Cleveland's down 2-1 in the series, and with Griffin, Cantillo, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin all pitching last night, I think they need him to get through 5. I'd set his leash at about 90 pitches, and earlier if Chicago's righties square him up the second time through.
Hagen Smith (CWS) | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
This is the one I'd watch most closely. Smith threw 21 pitches in relief last night and is opening again today. His longest outing since late August is 51 pitches, in Game 1. Coming off a back-to-back, I'd expect 25 to 35 pitches and 1 or 2 innings, so he's probably done after one trip through the order. He has a 37.3% strikeout rate, so even 5 outs can pay at $4,000, but I wouldn't count on more.
Erick Fedde (CWS) | DK $10,000 | CPT $15,000
Fedde is the bulk arm, and he's one of the most rested pitchers Chicago has. He last pitched 8 days ago and hasn't started since 9/17. His last 2 outings were relief stints of 64 and 34 pitches. I'd guess he goes about 60 to 70 pitches, which is 3 or 4 innings if he's efficient. That's the 2nd through roughly the 5th or 6th inning.
Bullpen Arms to Target
Every reliever here costs $4,000, and every out is worth 0.75 points. You get an edge in Showdown by guessing which of them pitches. Our projections won't catch everything below, so treat this as a usage call.
Grant Taylor (CWS) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Taylor's my top reliever on the board. He threw 7 pitches Monday and hasn't pitched since, and he went 4 innings on 42 pitches in Game 1, so Chicago trusts him for length. He strikes out 31.5% of hitters with a 2.64 SIERA. If Fedde gets hit early, Taylor's the first call. If Fedde's fine, Taylor probably closes it out.
Erik Sabrowski (CLE) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Sabrowski is the most rested good arm Cleveland has. He threw 11 pitches Monday and sat out last night. His 37.4% strikeout rate is one of the best on either staff, and it jumps to 41.9% against righties, which is most of Chicago's lineup. He walks a lot of hitters (15.3%), so it's boom-or-bust. In a game Cleveland has to win, I'd bet he gets the 6th or 7th.
Jordan Hicks (CWS) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Hicks hasn't pitched since Game 1, when he threw 17 pitches. With Schultz, Martin, Sandlin and Tyler Davis all working last night, he's one of the few Chicago relievers you can count on being available for a full inning. He strikes out 35.7% of lefties, and Cleveland's lefties at 1, 3, 5 and 7 are who he'd face late.
Cade Smith (CLE) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Smith is the best reliever in this game: 36.3% strikeouts, a 1.91 SIERA and a 16.7% swinging-strike rate. He also threw 2 innings and 19 pitches last night, his third outing of the series. Managers don't save arms in an elimination game, so I think he still pitches, but it's 1 inning at most. I'd use him as a strikeout dart at flex.
Shawn Armstrong (CLE) RP | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000
Armstrong only threw 5 pitches last night, so he's fresh. He isn't good, with a 4.62 ERA and a 12.3% walk rate, but he's the kind of arm who picks up a middle inning when the better ones are tired. I'm only playing him in a few lineups, and I'd stack Chicago against him before I'd roster him.
I'm staying away from Foster Griffin (53 pitches last night) and Noah Schultz (45), who shouldn't be available. Sean Burke went 83 pitches on Monday, so paying $11,000 for maybe an inning of emergency work is a bad price. David Sandlin and Joey Cantillo both pitched last night and still cost over $10,000. One wild card on the other side: Tanner Bibee hasn't pitched in this series and last threw 94 pitches on 9/26. If Cleveland wants a second long arm behind Messick in an elimination game, he's the one. Our projections don't have him pitching at all, which makes him a low-owned GPP dart at $10,400 if you believe it.
Pitchers
Parker Messick (CLE) vs CWS | DK $12,400 | CPT $18,600 | CASH
Messick's the only real starter in this game, and in Showdown that's worth a lot. He has a 2.56 ERA backed by a 3.05 xFIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate, so the ERA isn't a fluke. He's better against righties (.263 wOBA) than lefties (.304), which helps against a righty-heavy Chicago lineup. He and Smith will be the chalk arms in this game, and I'm fine with that. I'd play him at flex and save the captain slot for a hitter.
Erick Fedde (CWS) vs CLE | DK $10,000 | CPT $15,000 | GPP
I don't love Fedde, but he's the arm most likely to throw the most innings for Chicago. The problem is that the 3.85 ERA is hiding a 4.54 SIERA and a 16.3% strikeout rate. He also gives up 2.22 HR/9 to righties. If he goes 4 innings and gets the win, he pays off. If not, the money's better spent on bats, so I'm only using him in tournaments.
Hagen Smith (CWS) vs CLE | DK $4,000 | CPT $6,000 | GPP
Smith will be one of the most popular players in the game because he's a starter at the minimum price. I understand it. He strikes out 43.7% of righties. But we covered the leash above, and his 1.29 ERA is propped up by a .186 BABIP and an 85.8% strand rate. He's fine at flex in tournaments, and I'd fade him at captain.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Hagen Smith (CWS), Negative Regression Candidate
Smith has a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings, but his FIP is 2.35 and he walks 14.5% of hitters. A .186 BABIP won't last, and neither will stranding 85.8% of runners. Cleveland's righties benefit most. Adell's 165 wRC+ against lefties is the way to play it, if you can live with him seeing Smith only once.
Erick Fedde (CWS), Negative Regression Candidate
Fedde's 3.85 ERA has a 5.01 FIP and a 4.54 SIERA behind it. His 6.5% swinging-strike rate is one of the lowest on either staff, and he's stranded 79% of runners. He's been lucky. Cleveland's lefties, Lowe and Bazzana in particular, are the ones who should cash in.
Final Thoughts
For cash, I'd go with Vargas at captain and Messick, Hagen Smith, Grant Taylor, DeLauter and Grichuk at flex. That's $48,200. You get the only real starter plus the two $4,000 arms I'm most confident will pitch, and Vargas and Grichuk are two of Chicago's best bats against a lefty.
Before lock, I'm watching Smith's first inning. If he's past 25 pitches after one, Fedde's probably warming, and that's good for Lowe and Bazzana. Also check whether Bibee is on Cleveland's card at all. If he isn't, cross him off.
For tournaments, I like Murakami at captain with Fedde, Sabrowski, Angel Martinez, Lowe and Meidroth. Leaving Messick off is how you get different. It's a bet that Cleveland's tired pen gives up a big inning late, and that's where Murakami does his damage.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.