Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the LCS is underway with 2 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Yoshinobu Yamamoto goes from about 6.5 projected innings to 5.6. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Partly Cloudy, 83F | Wind: 14 mph SW
The roof should be open, and it's 83 degrees at first pitch, which is warm for October in Milwaukee. The 14 mph wind blows across the field, so the 83 degrees drives the boost: expected homers go up about 8%, closer to 10% for right-handed bats. That's a small bump for both lineups, and I'd lean a bit harder into the Dodger stack because of it.
Cleveland and Tampa Bay play indoors at Tropicana Field tonight, so the forecast doesn't touch that one.
Lineup Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Logan Henderson (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $5,800 / $3,800 | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,300 / $3,000 | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | L | $4,800 / $3,200 | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 4 | Will Smith | R | $3,800 / $2,700 | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 5 | Max Muncy | L | $4,500 / $3,100 | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 6 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,600 / $2,900 | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 7 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,300 / $2,800 | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 8 | Andy Pages | R | $4,000 / $3,300 | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 9 | Enrique Hernandez | R | $2,600 / $2,300 | 57 | .157 | 122* | .205 |
The top 5 is where this lineup does its damage against righties, where Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Smith each clear 130. Tucker and Teoscar are the two who'd rather see a lefty.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,500 / $3,900 | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | L | $5,000 / $3,500 | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | L | $4,100 / $3,400 | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 4 | William Contreras | R | $4,400 / $2,900 | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,600 / $2,600 | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | L | $3,700 / $3,000 | 71 | .119 | 101 | .151 |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,000 / $2,600 | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
| 8 | Luis Lara | S | $2,500 / $2,300 | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | R | $2,900 / $2,300 | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
Turang and Bauers are the two Brewers built for this matchup, at 151 and 143 against righties. Bauers is the rare one who hits both sides, and Chourio does more damage against lefties.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Foster Griffin (L)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Diaz | R | $4,200 / $3,100 | 114 | .174 | 128 | .144 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | L | $3,900 / $3,200 | 95 | .091 | 133 | .188 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | R | $5,700 / $3,700 | 151 | .204 | 137 | .264 |
| 4 | Ryan Vilade | R | $2,500 / $2,500 | 125 | .205 | 81 | .149 |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca | R | $3,400 / $2,500 | 84 | .115 | 114 | .198 |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | L | $3,100 / $2,700 | 74 | .055 | 103 | .046 |
| 7 | Nick Fortes | R | $2,300 / $2,300 | 91 | .109 | 90 | .126 |
| 8 | Jorge Mateo | R | $2,100 / $2,200 | 46 | .094 | 60 | .123 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | S | $2,900 / $2,400 | 54 | .068 | 86 | .081 |
Caminero and Vilade are the two Rays who punish left-handed pitching. The bottom third is weak against lefties, so I wouldn't go deep into this order.
Cleveland Guardians vs Drew Rasmussen (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $3,400 / $2,700 | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | S | $4,900 / $3,600 | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | L | $3,900 / $3,200 | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $4,000 / $2,900 | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | L | $3,100 / $2,500 | -17* | .022 | 126 | .214 |
| 6 | Angel Martinez | S | $3,800 / $2,800 | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | L | $3,700 / $3,000 | 54 | .062 | 135 | .211 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | S | $2,400 / $2,300 | 35 | .085 | 77 | .137 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $3,200 / $2,700 | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
Cleveland's lefties carry this group against a righty: Kwan, DeLauter, Lowe and Bazzana all sit at 126 or higher. Ramirez is only a 76 from the left side, which is a strange thing to type about him.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Junior Caminero (TB) DK $5,700 | FD $3,700 vs Foster Griffin
Caminero is my favorite right-handed power bat on this board, and he gets a lefty. He's at a 151 wRC+ with a .204 ISO against lefties, and his contact numbers back it up: 13.1% barrels, 47.7% hard contact and the fastest bat speed on the slate. Griffin has allowed 17.6% of right-handed fly balls to leave the yard. At $5,700 he's an expensive bat on DraftKings, and FanDuel's $3,700 isn't much of a break either, so you're paying full price on both sites.
Jake Bauers (MIL) DK $4,100 | FD $3,400 vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Paying for a bat against Yamamoto feels wrong. I'm doing it anyway with Bauers. Against righties he has a 143 wRC+ and a .202 ISO, with 14.7% barrels and 56.4% hard contact. Yamamoto keeps lefties quiet overall, but 18.9% of their fly balls have gone out against him, and the 83 degrees in Milwaukee adds about 7% to left-handed homers. $4,100 is a reasonable price for that kind of contact.
Ryan Vilade (TB) DK $2,500 | FD $2,500 vs Foster Griffin
Vilade is the cheap bat that makes the rest of the roster work. He hits cleanup against lefties with a 125 wRC+ and a .205 ISO, and he swings hard, at 75.3 mph of bat speed. It's only 170 plate appearances, so I wouldn't call it a sure thing. At $2,500 on both sites, though, you're paying close to the minimum for a cleanup hitter in a good platoon spot.
Stacks to Target
1. Tampa Bay Rays vs Foster Griffin (L) | Implied Total: 3.88 | ROO Score: 3.1/10 | Cash
Griffin is the shakiest starter on the slate, and that's mostly about workload. His last start was September 23, 19 days ago, and since then he's thrown only 2.2 innings in relief on October 7, so he probably won't be out there long. Righties hit him harder than lefties, a .321 wOBA with 38.3% hard contact, and Tampa Bay's 3.88 tops the slate. Cleveland's bullpen is good, but it's tired. Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have each worked 4 games since October 5. Expect it to be chalk, and in cash I'll eat that.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $5,700 (R), Yandy Diaz $4,200 (R), Ryan Vilade $2,500 (R), Jonny DeLuca $3,400 (R)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Logan Henderson (R) | Implied Total: 3.60 | ROO Score: 2.8/10 | Cash
Henderson's had a great year, but the numbers under it don't hold up as well. Lefties have a 21.3% HR/FB and 1.41 HR/9 against him, and the Dodger lefties post a 119 wRC+ against righties as a group. Ohtani at 143 and Freeman at 137 are the obvious bats, and Will Smith adds a righty at 137 for only $3,800. Henderson projects for under 5 innings, so the Brewers pen will see this lineup more than once. Aaron Ashby threw 26 pitches yesterday, and Abner Uribe has pitched 3 times in a week. It'll be popular. I trust it more than any other stack tonight.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $5,800 (L), Freddie Freeman $4,800 (L), Will Smith $3,800 (R), Max Muncy $4,500 (L)
3. Cleveland Guardians vs Drew Rasmussen (R) | Implied Total: 2.62 | ROO Score: 2.0/10 | GPP
Cleveland projects as the least popular stack on the slate, and that's most of the case for it. The Guardians sit at 2.62, the bottom of the board, and Rasmussen is good, but this lineup has 4 lefties at 126 or better against righties: Kwan, DeLauter, Lowe and Bazzana. Rasmussen is projected for about 5 innings, and Tampa Bay's pen runs close to a 4.00 xFIP against lefties. Use it in tournaments only. You need these bats to reach the Tampa Bay bullpen early.
Core pieces: Travis Bazzana $3,700 (L), Chase DeLauter $3,900 (L), Nathaniel Lowe $3,100 (L), Steven Kwan $3,400 (L)
Bullpen Usage
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee
The Dodgers' relievers are in good shape. Tanner Scott has pitched 3 times in a week, but no reliever has thrown more than 19 pitches in an outing. Milwaukee's pen worked hard behind Jacob Misiorowski yesterday, with Ashby at 26 pitches and Trevor Megill at 19, and Uribe has now gone 3 times in 6 days.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Cleveland's late-inning group is the most worn down on the slate. Cade Smith threw 31 pitches on October 8 and 27 on October 10, and Gaddis and Shawn Armstrong have each pitched 3 or more times. Tampa Bay hasn't played since October 7, so every arm in that pen is rested.
Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs MIL | DK $10,000 | FD $10,400 | CASH
I'm starting every cash lineup with Yamamoto. Milwaukee's implied total is only 2.90, and he's had 5 full days off since a 98-pitch, 7-inning start on October 6. Yamamoto: 2.53 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA, 25.7% K. The ERA has had some help from a .217 BABIP, but the strikeout and walk numbers are strong enough that I'm not worried for one start. Nobody costs more on either site, and he's going to be the chalk arm. That doesn't bother me.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs CLE | DK $8,500 | FD $9,600 | CASH
Of the four starters, Rasmussen gets the easiest draw. Cleveland is at 2.62 runs, the lowest on the slate, and his 2.67 ERA lines up with a 3.00 xFIP and a 4.8% walk rate, so there isn't much luck to worry about. Lefties strike out 28.3% of the time against him. The pricing is a little weird: he's $500 cheaper than Henderson on DraftKings but $400 more on FanDuel, so he's the better value on DK and closer to a coin flip on FD. His K rate drops to 22.7% against righties, which caps the upside, but for cash I'll take the safe floor.
Logan Henderson (MIL) vs LAD | DK $9,000 | FD $9,200 | GPP
The strikeout stuff is real. Henderson gets whiffs on 13.8% of his pitches and strikes out 29.6% of hitters. The problem is that his 2.48 ERA leans on an 87% strand rate and a .221 BABIP, and he's facing the deepest lineup on the board. I'd keep him in tournaments, where his strikeout upside matters more than his floor.
Foster Griffin (CLE) vs TB | DK $6,500 | FD $8,400 | GPP
Griffin is the cheapest arm on both sites, and the price is his only selling point. This is his first start since September 23, and he's only thrown 2.2 innings in relief since, so a short leash and fewer innings than usual look likely. His 3.61 ERA and 3.69 xFIP say he's a fine pitcher when he's stretched out. Tonight he isn't, which leaves him as a GPP dart at most.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Logan Henderson (MIL), Negative Regression Candidate
Henderson's ERA is half a run under his xFIP and close to a full run under his 3.32 FIP. An 87% strand rate and a .221 BABIP are doing a lot of the work. Strand rates that high rarely last, and I'd want the Dodgers to be the ones testing it tonight.
Final Thoughts
Yamamoto and Rasmussen are my cash pair, the two arms with the softest matchups. From there I'd go to the Dodger lefties around Ohtani and Freeman, and use Vilade at $2,500 to free up salary for Caminero.
The roof in Milwaukee is worth a check before lock, since the 83 degrees helps the hitters only if it stays open. I'd also confirm that Vilade is still in the cleanup spot for Tampa Bay, because a lot of his value comes from that.
In tournaments, Cleveland's lefties against Rasmussen are the contrarian way to go, and Henderson at $9,000 goes with any build that fades the Dodgers. Bauers is the one Brewer bat worth a GPP spot against Yamamoto.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.