Two games make a thin Monday slate, so we build heavier: a full power play stack plus a goalie who rises and falls with it. Both totals sit at 5.5, and the sim leans a touch higher on Vegas at Minnesota. We build around the Minnesota power play (MIN PP1) and trust Jesper Wallstedt in net behind it. New Jersey's top unit has the other big ceiling. On two games we play the chalk and do not fight it.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Dylan Garand, won and scored 12.3 DK points. The NYR PP1 stack scored 66.9 DK points, first of 6 PP1 units on the slate.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT @ NJD | 5.5 | NJD -126 | NJD 2.95, OTT 2.76 | NJD PP (7th) vs OTT PK (4th) |
| VGK @ MIN | 5.5 | MIN -114 | MIN 2.93, VGK 2.88 | VGK PP (3rd) vs MIN PK (23rd) |
No team is on a back-to-back tonight, and all four teams had one day of rest. By expected goals per 60, the best special teams spot belongs to Vegas: its power play ranks 3rd and Minnesota's penalty kill ranks 23rd. The ranks in the table come from our NHL team matchup ranks and still lean on last season while every team is under 10 games.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jonas Brodin, Olli Maatta, Quinn Hughes |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence, Thomas Chabot |
| William Eklund (OTT, W) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Fabian Zetterlund, Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens |
| Connor Brown (NJD, W) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Timo Meier, Anthony Mantha, Jack Hughes |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jesper Wallstedt |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $7,800), cash
Wallstedt is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Gustavsson is on injured reserve, so the crease is his. No goalie tonight has a strong win chance: Daws leads at 53% and Wallstedt sits at 51%, so we take the cheaper of the two. Minnesota is a -114 home favorite, and Wallstedt leads the slate with 26.5 projected saves against the most 5v5 shot attempts on the board (48.8). If Minnesota turns to its backup, switch to Nico Daws.
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $7,800), GPP
Same goalie for tournaments. He has the best chance at 35 or more saves on the slate (7.8%) and the highest goalie Elo tonight (1536). On two games, a goalie on the same team as your main stack is the cleanest way to stack wins on top of goals.
Avoid Linus Ullmark at $7,400. He is popular, Ottawa is a +105 underdog with a 47% win chance, and he faces the highest implied total on the slate (2.95) plus the chalk NJD PP1.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota projects for 2.93 goals against Carter Hart, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile of the night at 83.7 points, and it will be nearly as popular as New Jersey's. Kaprizov and Boldy skate on the Minnesota top line (MIN1) with Joel Eriksson Ek, and that line holds a 51.4% blended shot share. Quinn Hughes runs the power play from the point and leads the team at 26.6 projected minutes. Ryan Hartman and Max Shabanov fill out PP1 at a combined $7,600. The matchup is not soft: Minnesota's power play ranks 10th by expected goals and the Vegas penalty kill ranks 2nd. We play it for the Kaprizov and Boldy ceiling. Cash and GPP.
NJD PP1: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes
New Jersey has the highest implied total on the slate at 2.95 against Linus Ullmark, expected to start, not yet confirmed. Ottawa's penalty kill allows the 4th fewest expected goals per 60, so this stack leans on the Jack Hughes line at even strength. This unit carries the biggest correlation boost of any stack tonight (9.4 points at the 90th percentile). Jack Hughes plays on the second line at even strength but stays on PP1, and he projects for 3.28 shots. Jesper Bratt and Luke Evangelista complete the unit. GPP, and it will be the chalk.
VGK PP1: Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone (third stack)
Vegas projects for 2.88 goals against Wallstedt, so this stack never goes with our goalie. The Vegas top line (VGK1) of Eichel, Stone and Ivan Barbashev holds a 55.0% blended shot share. VGK1 also has the best line matchup edge on the slate (+9.1, table below). Vegas runs the 3rd best power play by expected goals into Minnesota's 23rd ranked penalty kill. It is the least popular PP1 on the board with a 74.5-point 90th percentile, and Tomas Hertl and Trevor Connelly round it out. Marner plays on the second line and joins Eichel on PP1. GPP, with Nico Daws in net, never Wallstedt.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK F1 | Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone | +9.1 | MIN F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 493 min |
| VGK F2 | William Karlsson, Brett Howden, Mitch Marner | +6.8 | MIN F1 (37%) | Full line, 207 min |
| NJD F2 | Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Anthony Mantha | +3.0 | OTT F1 (39%) | Bratt and Hughes, 718 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
OTT PP2: Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Andre Burakovsky ($9,700 total)
The full Ottawa second power play unit costs $15,600 and still carries a 49.1-point 90th percentile, inside the top half of the slate's stacks. Greig at $2,600 plays 17.2 minutes on the second line, and Burakovsky skates on the top line at $3,000. The savings pay for both Minnesota wingers in the same lineup.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: NJD PP1. Pivot: VGK PP1. On two games we play the chalk; New Jersey has the top implied total and the biggest correlation boost. Vegas is a second build at about the same price with less ownership, and only in lineups without Wallstedt.
Chalk goalie: Jesper Wallstedt. Pivot: Nico Daws ($8,000). Daws has the best win chance on the slate (53%) and is a touch less popular. Pair him with a MIN or VGK build, never with Ottawa skaters.
Skaters
Centers
Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,500): cash. He centers MIN1 and runs the second power play, with 19.1 projected minutes. He projects for 2.5 shots and a 2.8-point floor at a price well under the top centers.
Tim Stützle ($6,100): GPP. Ottawa's top line center also runs PP1, and Eklund's injury moves more of the offense through him. His 20.8-point ceiling is the best of any center under $8,000, and he draws less ownership.
Wingers
Timo Meier ($5,700): cash. He plays on New Jersey's top line at even strength but is not on PP1. That still gives him 3.14 projected shots and a 22% chance at five or more. Connor Brown's injury keeps his minutes up.
Drake Batherson ($5,300): GPP. A top line and PP1 winger for Ottawa with a 19-point ceiling. He projects for the most goals on Ottawa's roster and comes in low-owned.
Defensemen
Thomas Chabot ($5,600): cash. He plays on Ottawa's top pair with Jordan Spence and quarterbacks PP1. With Sanderson day-to-day, he projects for 25.1 minutes and 2.1 blocked shots, and his 4.1-point floor is level with Kaprizov's.
Shea Theodore ($5,000): GPP. He plays on the Vegas top pair and runs PP2, not PP1. That pair holds a 54.0% blended shot share. His 15.8-point ceiling is the best of any defenseman under $5,500, and he is low-owned.
Value Plays
Claude Giroux (OTT W, $3,100): He plays on the third line at even strength but runs PP1 with Stützle and Chabot. How a PP1 winger still costs $3,100 is a mystery.
William Karlsson (VGK C, $3,500): He centers the second line next to Marner and plays PP2 for 17.2 projected minutes. He returns 2.09 points per $1,000, the best value at center.
Blocks Floor
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $2,900): He plays on the second pair with Olli Maatta and has no power play role. He projects for 2.0 blocked shots and a 35% chance at the 3-block bonus, and Faber's absence keeps his minutes up. Cash and floor play.
Tyler Kleven (OTT D, $2,800): He plays on the second pair with Carter Yakemchuk and has no power play role. He projects for 1.7 blocked shots and a 26% chance at the bonus. If Sanderson returns, Kleven loses minutes, so check before lock.
Before Lock
- All four starters are Likely, not Confirmed. If Wallstedt does not start, switch to Daws. If Daws does not start, use Wallstedt and drop the VGK PP1 build.
- Daws was first off the ice at New Jersey's morning skate. Check that Ullmark starts for Ottawa before you play the NJD stack.
- Jake Sanderson (OTT) is day-to-day. If he plays, Chabot, Spence and Kleven lose minutes.
- No team is on a back-to-back, so no tired-legs or backup-goalie spots tonight.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Wallstedt, Eriksson Ek, Meier, Chabot and Brodin, then fill the rest from MIN PP1. For tournaments, play the Minnesota power play with Wallstedt, then add a VGK PP1 build with Daws as the second build.
NHL DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie, and its skaters can look slow, mostly after travel. That moves the goalie value and the opposing stack. Tonight no team is on a back-to-back, so rest is not a factor.
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five skaters on a team's top power play unit. They play most of each power play together, so one goal can pay three or four of them at once. Tonight Minnesota's PP1 has the best 90th percentile on the slate.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.