Twelve games means more one-offs and more stacks to pick from than on a short card, so we spread out. Eight games carry a 6.5 total, and Utah has the highest implied total at 3.57 goals. We build around the Edmonton power play (EDM PP1) against a Kings penalty kill that ranks 31st, and we trust Ilya Sorokin in net for cash.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Jesper Wallstedt, won and scored 13.7 DK points. The MIN PP1 stack scored 66.9 DK points, first of 4 PP1 units on the slate.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ PHI | 5.5 | PHI -120 | PHI 2.94, SEA 2.82 | PHI on 3rd game in 4 nights |
| TBL @ NYR | 5.5 | TBL -156 | TBL 3.15, NYR 2.67 | none |
| STL @ OTT | 5.5 | OTT -118 | OTT 2.90, STL 2.80 | OTT on a back-to-back after travel |
| VAN @ NYI | 6.5 | NYI -215 | NYI 3.55, VAN 2.63 | VAN PK 32nd by xG against |
| PIT @ CHI | 6.5 | PIT -164 | PIT 3.49, CHI 2.92 | CHI 5v5 defense 31st by xG |
| MIN @ WPG | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110 each) | MIN 3.14, WPG 3.14 | MIN on a back-to-back after travel |
| COL @ DAL | 5.5 | COL -113 | COL 2.91, DAL 2.87 | DAL PK 3rd by xG against |
| VGK @ NSH | 6.5 | VGK -128 | VGK 3.21, NSH 3.00 | VGK on a back-to-back after travel |
| TOR @ UTA | 6.5 | UTA -164 | UTA 3.57, TOR 3.00 | TOR 5v5 defense 30th by xG |
| CGY @ ANA | 6.5 | ANA -178 | ANA 3.51, CGY 2.84 | CGY PP 30th by xG |
| EDM @ LAK | 6.5 | EDM -132 | EDM 3.26, LAK 3.00 | EDM PP 1st by xG, LAK PK 31st by PK% |
| BOS @ SJS | 6.5 | BOS -126 | BOS 3.23, SJS 3.03 | SJS PK 28th by xG against |
The best special teams spot belongs to Edmonton. Its power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and the Kings kill only 69.2% of penalties, 31st in the league. Every team is under 10 games, so these ranks sit on a blend that still leans on last season. Full ranks live on our NHL team matchup ranks.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard (CHI, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Patrick Kane, Roman Kantserov, Tyler Bertuzzi |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Out | 9 | Jordan Spence, Tyler Kleven, Thomas Chabot |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jonas Brodin, Olli Maatta, Quinn Hughes |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Emil Heineman, Ondrej Palat, Bo Horvat |
| Cutter Gauthier (ANA, W) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Nikita Nesterenko, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, W) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Adrian Kempe, Artemi Panarin, Quinton Byfield |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, W) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Jason Dickinson, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Dylan Samberg, Mario Ferraro, Dylan DeMelo |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Ilya Sorokin (NYI, $8,500), cash
Sorokin is confirmed. He has the best win chance on the slate at 65% as a -215 home favorite, and Vancouver projects for only 2.63 goals. The Canucks' 5v5 offense ranks 31st by expected goals, so we expect a quiet night: about 21 saves on 23 shots. He projects as the most popular goalie in both large fields and single entry, and we are fine with that in cash.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,400), GPP
Vasilevskiy is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Tampa Bay is a -156 road favorite with a 58% win chance, and the Rangers project for 2.67 goals. His 10.3% shutout chance is the best on the slate, and he is far less popular than Sorokin. If he does not start, switch to Karel Vejmelka (UTA, $7,500), who has a 59.5% win chance.
Avoid Devin Cooley at $7,100. He is popular because he leads all goalies with 31 projected saves, but Calgary is a +146 underdog with a 39% win chance against a 3.51 implied total.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton projects for 3.26 goals against Darcy Kuemper, expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Oilers' power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and Los Angeles kills just 69.2% of its penalties. The Edmonton top line (EDM1) of McDavid, Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin holds a 56.5% blended shot share, and the Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm pair sits at 57.1%. The Oilers' defense unit has the best Elo matchup of the night, 61 points above the Kings unit it faces. Kasperi Kapanen completes PP1. The unit costs $37,100 for a 95.4-point 90th percentile, and it is less popular than the Wild unit. GPP, and the core of our cash build.
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota projects for 3.14 goals against Stuart Skinner, who is confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (97.4) and the biggest correlation boost (14.3 points). The Wild skated last night, so this is a back-to-back with travel. We downgrade it a little and still play it. Minnesota's power play converts at 29.5%, 1st in the league, while Winnipeg's kill ranks 22nd. The Minnesota top line (MIN1) holds a 51.7% blended shot share, and Hughes leads the team at 26.2 projected minutes with Brock Faber out. Joel Eriksson Ek and Maxim Shabanov fill out PP1. GPP.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen (contrarian)
Dallas projects for 2.87 goals against Mackenzie Blackwood, who is confirmed. Eight stacks carry a 90th percentile of 86 or better, and the field will play this one the least. The Stars' power play ranks 2nd in expected goals per 60, and Colorado's kill ranks 6th. We take it for the ceiling and the low ownership. Robertson plays on the second line with Roope Hintz, a line at 50.7% shot share, and stays on PP1. Matt Duchene is out, and the injury report lists Robertson and Rantanen among the players who gain his work. Wyatt Johnston and Hintz round out PP1. GPP only.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM F1 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin | +16.9 | LAK F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 82 min |
| VGK F1 | Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone | +16.4 | NSH F1 (43%) | Full line, 502 min |
| TBL F2 | Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli | +11.6 | NYR F1 (35%) | Full line, 190 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
LAK F2: Erik Haula, Trevor Moore, Alex Laferriere ($10,700 total)
At $10,700, this line is the cheapest stack with a 90th percentile in the top half of the slate (43.8). Laferriere plays on the second line and joins PP1, while Haula and Moore run PP2, so all three see the power play against an Edmonton kill that ranks 28th by PK%. It also works as a bring-back to EDM PP1 and leaves room for McDavid and Draisaitl in the same lineup.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: NYI PP1. Pivot: BOS PP1. The Islanders' top unit draws the most ownership on the slate, and it faces Vancouver's last-ranked kill. Boston costs about $2,400 more with a similar 90th percentile (84.5 to 85.4) at a fraction of the ownership, and its forward unit draws a SMASH tag against San Jose.
Chalk goalie: Ilya Sorokin. Pivot: Karel Vejmelka ($7,500). We keep Sorokin in cash. In tournaments, Vejmelka gives a 59.5% win chance as a -164 home favorite and comes in low-owned. Keep Toronto skaters out of his lineups.
Skaters
Centers
Nick Schmaltz ($6,000): cash. He centers the Utah top line and runs PP1 for 19.2 projected minutes on the team with the highest implied total. The Utah forwards draw a SMASH tag against Toronto, and he projects for 2.8 shots with a 3-point floor.
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,200): GPP. Top line and PP1 for Colorado, the team that ranks 1st in 5v5 shots for per 60. He is one of five skaters with a ceiling of 27 points or more, and he comes in low-owned because of the 5.5 total.
Wingers
Kyle Connor ($8,000): cash. He plays on the Winnipeg top line and the top power play for 20.7 minutes. Minnesota arrives on the second night of a back-to-back with Calvin Pickard in net, and Connor leads the slate with a 30% chance at five or more shots. He will be popular.
Nikita Kucherov ($8,500): GPP. Kucherov runs the Tampa Bay top line and PP1 and projects for 0.95 assists. The Lightning top line holds a +7.9 line edge, and Kucherov pairs with Vasilevskiy at a low ownership.
Defensemen
Thomas Chabot ($5,400): cash. With Jake Sanderson out, Chabot plays on the Ottawa top pair and quarterbacks PP1 for 25.1 projected minutes. He projects for 2.0 blocked shots and a 4.1-point floor. Ottawa is on a back-to-back after travel, so watch for a minutes cap.
Cale Makar ($7,800): GPP. He plays on the Colorado top pair and runs PP1 for 22.7 minutes. His 21.2-point ceiling is the third best among defensemen, and the field leaves him alone on a 5.5 total.
Value Plays
Lawson Crouse (UTA W, $3,000): He plays on the Utah top line with Schmaltz and Clayton Keller for 16.7 projected minutes, with no power play role. At 2.6 points per $1,000, he is tied for the best value on the slate.
Matvei Michkov (PHI W, $3,500): He skates on the Flyers' top line and runs PP2 for 16.0 minutes. His 17.8-point ceiling is the highest of any skater at $3,500 or less.
Blocks Floor
Brandt Clarke (LAK D, $4,900): He plays on the second pair with Joel Edmundson and stays on PP1. He projects for 2.3 blocked shots and a 41% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Zach Whitecloud (CGY D, $2,900): He plays on the second pair with Yan Kuznetsov and has no power play role. He projects for 2.0 blocked shots and a 33% chance at the bonus, against an Anaheim team that ranks 4th in 5v5 shots for per 60. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Tyson Foerster (PHI W, $3,800): over 1.5 shots on goal (-122). We project him for 2.06 shots, more than half a shot over the line, at a fair price. How a PP1 winger still costs $3,800 is a small mystery.
A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Vasilevskiy is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If he does not, switch to Vejmelka. If Vejmelka does not start, use Lukas Dostal (ANA, $8,300) and keep Calgary skaters out.
- Minnesota, Ottawa and Vegas are all on a back-to-back after travel. Pickard and Hill are confirmed; check Ottawa's crease.
- Zach Hyman (EDM) is day-to-day. If he plays, check whether he takes a PP1 spot from Kapanen.
- Cutter Gauthier (ANA) and Josh Morrissey (WPG) are day-to-day. Watch the morning skate and line rushes.
- Connor Bedard is listed on injured reserve with a return date of today. If he plays, Kane, Kantserov and Bertuzzi lose some of the work.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Sorokin, Schmaltz, Connor, Chabot and Clarke, then fill with the Edmonton stars. For tournaments, play EDM PP1 with Vasilevskiy, build a second set around MIN PP1, and take some DAL PP1 for leverage.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
It helps, and we do it when we can. A goalie wins when his team scores, so a goalie from the same team as your stack adds upside when that stack hits. Tonight Vasilevskiy pairs well with a Kucherov build, and you never want a goalie facing your main stack.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
Linemates are on the ice for the same goals, so one goal can pay a goal and two assists across the same line. That makes a top line stack swing together. The Edmonton top line, with the best line edge on the slate, shows how much one unit can carry a lineup.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.