Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the LCS is underway with 2 games today. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Tyler Glasnow goes from about 5.4 projected innings to 4.3. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Tampa Bay at Cleveland | Progressive Field | Overcast, 60F | Wind: 3 mph SE
It's 60 degrees and gray for a noon Central first pitch, and the wind is close to nothing. Cool and damp knocks about 6% off home runs here, so I'm not chasing power in this one.
Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 88F | Wind: 5 mph SW
This is the game to hit in. It's 88 degrees with dry heat and a light breeze toward center, good for about 14% more home runs than normal at a park that already helps power. Both lineups get a bump, and it's a big reason the Dodger bats sit at the top of my board.
Lineup Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Dustin May (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | R | $5,200 / $3,000 | 110 | .197 | 118 | .196 |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | L | $4,800 / $3,000 | 93 | .111 | 137 | .157 |
| 3 | Will Smith | R | $3,700 / $2,600 | 82 | .103 | 137 | .192 |
| 4 | Shohei Ohtani | L | $5,700 / $3,900 | 139 | .257 | 143 | .227 |
| 5 | Teoscar Hernandez | R | $4,100 / $2,800 | 151 | .212 | 95 | .135 |
| 6 | Max Muncy | L | $4,400 / $3,200 | 135 | .244 | 130 | .236 |
| 7 | Andy Pages | R | $3,900 / $3,300 | 149 | .238 | 116 | .176 |
| 8 | Kyle Tucker | L | $4,700 / $2,900 | 113 | .181 | 97 | .139 |
| 9 | Enrique Hernandez | R | $2,700 / $2,300 | 57 | .157 | 122* | .205 |
Freeman, Smith and Muncy all sit at 130 or better against righties, so they're the core of my Dodger builds. Teoscar and Pages do most of their damage against lefties, and they don't get one today.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Tyler Glasnow (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | R | $5,400 / $3,800 | 166 | .242 | 116 | .176 |
| 2 | Brice Turang | L | $4,900 / $3,700 | 77 | .097 | 151 | .219 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | L | $3,900 / $3,400 | 149 | .259 | 143 | .202 |
| 4 | William Contreras | R | $4,500 / $3,000 | 109 | .133 | 110 | .152 |
| 5 | Garrett Mitchell | L | $3,400 / $2,600 | 95 | .093 | 124 | .172 |
| 6 | Christian Yelich | L | $3,700 / $2,900 | 71 | .119 | 101 | .151 |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | R | $3,100 / $2,600 | 61 | .086 | 118 | .088 |
| 8 | Luis Lara | S | $2,700 / $2,200 | 64 | .074 | 89 | .081 |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | R | $3,000 / $2,200 | 86 | .118 | 114 | .140 |
Against righties, Turang (151) and Bauers (143) are Milwaukee's best bats. Chourio's big number comes against lefties, so he's less exciting against Glasnow than his price says.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Gavin Williams (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Diaz | R | $4,000 / $3,100 | 114 | .174 | 128 | .144 |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | L | $3,800 / $3,100 | 95 | .091 | 133 | .188 |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | R | $5,500 / $3,700 | 151 | .204 | 137 | .264 |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | L | $3,600 / $2,900 | 47 | .038 | 146 | .181 |
| 5 | Chandler Simpson | L | $2,900 / $2,700 | 74 | .055 | 103 | .046 |
| 6 | Victor Mesa | L | $3,400 / $2,800 | 144 | .150 | 122 | .269 |
| 7 | Jonny DeLuca | R | $3,200 / $2,600 | 84 | .115 | 114 | .198 |
| 8 | Richie Palacios | L | $2,800 / $2,400 | 39 | .070 | 112 | .153 |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | S | $2,600 / $2,300 | 54 | .068 | 86 | .081 |
Caminero hits righties and lefties alike, and Hicks has a 146 against righties hidden in the cleanup spot. Simpson and Walls don't offer any pop, so I'd stop at the top 7.
Cleveland Guardians vs Griffin Jax (R)
| # | Hitter | Bats | DK / FD | wRC+ vs LHP | ISO vs LHP | wRC+ vs RHP | ISO vs RHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steven Kwan | L | $3,300 / $2,700 | 82 | .029 | 127 | .084 |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | S | $5,300 / $3,800 | 126 | .182 | 76 | .112 |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | L | $4,200 / $3,300 | 136 | .146 | 126 | .181 |
| 4 | Jo Adell | R | $4,300 / $2,900 | 165 | .279 | 66 | .114 |
| 5 | Nathaniel Lowe | L | $3,000 / $2,500 | -17* | .022 | 126 | .214 |
| 6 | Angel Martinez | S | $3,800 / $2,800 | 127 | .221 | 96 | .205 |
| 7 | Travis Bazzana | L | $3,600 / $3,000 | 54 | .062 | 135 | .211 |
| 8 | Patrick Bailey | S | $2,300 / $2,400 | 35 | .085 | 77 | .137 |
| 9 | Brayan Rocchio | S | $3,200 / $2,600 | 71 | .138 | 111 | .139 |
Against a righty, the lefties carry Cleveland. Bazzana, DeLauter, Kwan and Lowe are all over 125. Switch-hitter Ramirez sits at 76 from that side, a number I still can't get used to.
An asterisk marks a split under 50 plate appearances.
HR Calls
Max Muncy (LAD) DK $4,400 | FD $3,200 vs Dustin May
Muncy is my top home run call. He's at a 130 wRC+ with a .236 ISO against righties and 13.1% barrels, and lefties have a .337 wOBA against May with 43.5% hard contact. It's only 179 plate appearances this year, so there's some guesswork in the rate stats. At $4,400 on DraftKings he's a fair mid-tier price for a guy hitting sixth in a lineup this good.
Will Smith (LAD) DK $3,700 | FD $2,600 vs Dustin May
Smith is the bat I like most for the price. He hits third, he's at a 137 wRC+ with a .192 ISO against righties, and he barrels 14.6% of his batted balls, which is more power than you'd expect from a catcher. May gets hit hard by righties too, 46% hard contact, and the 88 degrees at Dodger Stadium adds about 14% to right-handed homers. He's $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, so on both sites you're paying a value price for a middle-of-the-order bat.
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) DK $3,400 | FD $2,600 vs Tyler Glasnow
This one's a dart, and I know it. Glasnow keeps lefties quiet, a .251 wOBA, but he also has a 3.86 BB/9 against them, and a hitter who's ahead in the count gets a fastball he can drive. Mitchell swings as hard as anyone on the slate at 76.0 mph of bat speed, with 13.4% barrels and 54.9% hard contact, and he's a 124 wRC+ against righties. $3,400 gets you that power in 88-degree heat, and you'll have money left for the Dodger bats.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Dustin May (R) | Implied Total: 4.39 | ROO Score: 3.8/10 | Cash
The Dodgers are the stack today. They lead the board at 4.39 runs, almost a run ahead of Cleveland, and they get the hottest weather of the day. May: 4.71 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 4.48 BB/9 against lefties. He also threw an inning in relief on October 12, and I'd expect only 3 or 4 innings from him, so this lineup should see the Milwaukee bullpen early. That pen is tired. Abner Uribe has been out 3 times in 4 days, and DL Hall needed 28 pitches yesterday. It'll be the chalk stack today, and I'm playing it in cash anyway.
Core pieces: Freddie Freeman $4,800 (L), Max Muncy $4,400 (L), Will Smith $3,700 (R), Mookie Betts $5,200 (R)
2. Cleveland Guardians vs Griffin Jax (R) | Implied Total: 3.53 | ROO Score: 2.8/10 | Cash
Jax hasn't started since September 26, and the only time he's pitched since was a 2-inning relief outing on October 7. I doubt he faces the order twice. That puts a lot of this game on Tampa Bay's relievers. Lefties have hit 24.4% of their fly balls out against Jax, and Cleveland can throw 4 lefties at him who all hit righties well, from Kwan at 127 to Bazzana at 135. It's 60 degrees and the ball won't carry, so I'd lean on the guys who hit for average. Cleveland is second on the slate at 3.53, and it'll be the second most popular stack behind the Dodgers.
Core pieces: Travis Bazzana $3,600 (L), Chase DeLauter $4,200 (L), Nathaniel Lowe $3,000 (L), Steven Kwan $3,300 (L)
3. Tampa Bay Rays vs Gavin Williams (R) | Implied Total: 2.97 | ROO Score: 2.2/10 | GPP
Williams is my favorite cash arm, so I know it's odd to stack against him. Righties have a 35% HR/FB and 1.74 HR/9 against him with 51.1% hard contact, so when they connect, it goes. Tampa Bay sits at 2.97, lowest on the board, and almost nobody will play these bats. Cleveland's late-inning group has been busy, with Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski each pitching 3 times since October 8. You need 1 or 2 home runs off Williams for it to work, so keep it to tournaments.
Core pieces: Junior Caminero $5,500 (R), Yandy Diaz $4,000 (R), Liam Hicks $3,600 (L), Jonny DeLuca $3,200 (R)
Bullpen Usage
Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee's pen has worked a lot. Hall threw 28 pitches over 2.1 innings yesterday, Uribe worked on October 11, 12 and 14, and Aaron Ashby went back to back on October 11 and 12. The Dodgers aren't fresh either: Justin Wrobleski threw 32 pitches yesterday, and Evan Phillips and Roki Sasaki both pitched last night after working earlier in the week.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Both teams had yesterday off, which helps. Cleveland still leans on the same 3 arms, and Cade Smith threw 31 and 27 pitches in 2 outings before an easy 6 on October 12. Tampa Bay's pen is in better shape, with Cole Sulser's 27-pitch outing on October 12 the only heavy one.
Pitchers
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs TB | DK $9,000 | FD $9,700 | CASH
Williams' ERA undersells him. He strikes out 33.2% of hitters, and his 3.76 ERA sits more than a run above a 2.69 xFIP and a 2.32 SIERA. Tampa Bay is at 2.97 runs, the softest spot on the slate, and 60 degrees under gray skies in Cleveland won't do Tampa Bay's power any favors. He'll be popular, and for good reason. The home run risk against righties is real, which is why I still want a little Rays exposure in tournaments.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs MIL | DK $9,500 | FD $10,400 | CASH
Glasnow carries the top price on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the strikeouts justify it. Glasnow: 3.53 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.28 SIERA, 34.0% K. A 68.6% strand rate has cost him runs, so the ERA is the worst part of his line. The catch is length: his last start on October 7 lasted 4.2 innings and 78 pitches, and I'd expect about 4 or 5 innings again. On FanDuel he's $10,400 against an $8,000 floor, so he takes a bigger bite of your salary there than on DraftKings. I'm still playing him in cash.
Griffin Jax (TB) vs CLE | DK $7,000 | FD $8,000 | GPP
Jax hasn't started in almost 3 weeks, so even with a decent matchup I'd expect Tampa Bay to pull him early. He's thrown only 2 innings since September 26. His stuff is fine, a 13.2% swinging strike rate and a 3.31 xFIP. I just can't trust him for more than 2 or 3 innings. He's a cheap tournament dart and nothing more.
Dustin May (MIL) vs LAD | DK $6,500 | FD $8,300 | GPP
May costs the least of any DraftKings arm, and I'd only use him in a lineup built to fade the Dodgers. He pitched an inning of relief on October 12, so his workload is a question. His 4.71 ERA is worse than his 3.81 xFIP, and righties barely walk against him, 1.19 BB/9. The problem is the opponent: the best lineup on the slate, in 88-degree heat. Fade him in cash.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
May has pitched better than his ERA says. Hitters have a .320 BABIP against him, and he's stranded only 67.6% of runners, so his 4.71 ERA runs almost a full run above his 3.81 xFIP. Pitchers with those numbers tend to see the ERA come back down. I just wouldn't bet on it happening against this Dodgers lineup.
Final Thoughts
Williams and Glasnow are my cash arms, and I'm happy to pay for both. Build the bats around Freeman, Muncy and Will Smith, then use Nathaniel Lowe at $3,000 from the Cleveland side to keep the salary in line.
Check that Hicks is still hitting cleanup for Tampa Bay, since the 146 against righties is most of his value. I'd also watch how far Tampa Bay plans to push Jax, because a quick hook means Cleveland's bats face the bullpen for most of the game.
In tournaments, the Rays righties against Williams are the contrarian stack, and May at $6,500 only makes sense if you're betting against the Dodger bats. If you want a Brewer, Garrett Mitchell is the one with the power to take advantage of the heat.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.