Eleven games means more stacks to pick from and more room for one-offs, so we don't need to own every popular unit. Eight of the 11 games carry a 6.5 total, and Vegas has the top implied total at 3.86 goals. We build around the Tampa Bay power play (TBL PP1), and we trust Carter Hart in net as a big home favorite against Calgary. No team is on a back-to-back tonight, but six teams play their third game in four nights.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Scott Wedgewood, did not get the win and scored 9 DK points. The MTL PP1 stack scored 41.1 DK points, first of 4 PP1 units on the slate.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ TOR | 6.5 | TOR -118 | TOR 3.41, BUF 3.31 | BUF 3rd game in 4 nights |
| NYI @ OTT | 5.5 | OTT -164 | OTT 3.00, NYI 2.48 | OTT 3rd game in 4 nights |
| SEA @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -275 | TBL 3.75, SEA 2.51 | SEA last in 5v5 shot share |
| VAN @ FLA | 6.5 | FLA -300 | FLA 3.82, VAN 2.46 | FLA PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
| NYR @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -137 | NJD 3.26, NYR 2.95 | NJD 3rd game in 4 nights |
| PHI @ DET | 5.5 | DET -137 | DET 2.96, PHI 2.66 | DET PP 4th by xG |
| WPG @ CHI | 6.5 | WPG -126 | WPG 3.21, CHI 3.02 | none |
| STL @ MIN | 5.5 | MIN -142 | MIN 3.06, STL 2.72 | MIN 3rd game in 4 nights |
| SJS @ NSH | 6.5 | NSH -134 | NSH 3.31, SJS 3.02 | none |
| UTA @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -118 | EDM 3.35, UTA 3.25 | EDM PP 1st by xG |
| CGY @ VGK | 6.5 | VGK -320 | VGK 3.86, CGY 2.42 | VGK 3rd game in 4 nights |
The best special teams spot is in Florida. The Panthers rank 5th in power play expected goals per 60, and Vancouver allows the most expected goals per 60 on the penalty kill, on a blend that still leans on last season. Full ranks live on our NHL team matchup ranks.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Sandis Vilmanis, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jonas Brodin, Olli Maatta, Zach Bogosian |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Emil Heineman, Victor Eklund, Bo Horvat |
| Rasmus Dahlin (BUF, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Mattias Samuelsson, Zach Metsa, Owen Power |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Jordan Spence, Carter Yakemchuk |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett, Christian Dvorak |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jason Dickinson, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Jason Dickinson, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Carter Hart (VGK, $8,400), cash
Hart is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Vegas is a -320 home favorite, and his 73% win chance is the best on the slate. Calgary projects for only 2.42 goals, and Vegas allows the 2nd fewest shots per 60 at 5v5, so we expect a quiet night of about 23 saves. If Vegas turns to its backup, switch to Akira Schmid (FLA, $8,500), who is confirmed with a 71.8% win chance.
Carter Hart (VGK, $8,400), GPP
Hart is our tournament goalie too. His 10.5% shutout chance is the best on the slate, just ahead of Andrei Vasilevskiy at 10.3%. He is also the most popular goalie, so the GPP edge comes from the skaters around him. Dylan Garand draws real ownership as a road underdog with a 44.7% win chance, and we're staying away.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point
Tampa Bay projects for 3.75 goals against Joey Daccord, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (101.3), and the correlation adds 10 points to it. The Tampa Bay top line (TBL1) of Kucherov, Hagel and Anthony Cirelli holds a 57.8% shot share, and Seattle has the worst 5v5 shot share in the league. The power play matchup is only fair. Tampa ranks 15th in power play expected goals per 60, and Seattle's kill ranks 25th. John Carlson completes PP1. The whole field will be on it, and we're fine eating that chalk. Cash and GPP.
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton projects for 3.35 goals against Karel Vejmelka, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The Oilers' defense unit draws the biggest SMASH tag of the night, 53.8 Elo points above the Utah unit it faces, and Bouchard leads it. Edmonton ranks 1st in power play expected goals per 60, and Utah's kill ranks 16th. The Edmonton top line (EDM1) with Vasily Podkolzin holds a 55.7% shot share, and Kasperi Kapanen completes PP1. At $36,000 for all five, it costs the most of our three stacks. GPP, and a fine second stack in cash.
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes (contrarian)
Minnesota projects for 3.06 goals against Joel Hofer, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The field leaves this unit alone, and its 90th percentile (91.9) ranks 5th on the slate. The Wild convert 28.4% of their power plays, best in the league on a blend that still leans on last season. The problem: St. Louis allows the 5th fewest expected goals per 60 on the kill. The Minnesota top line (MIN1) with Joel Eriksson Ek holds a 52% shot share, and Maxim Shabanov completes PP1. This is Minnesota's third game in four nights. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA F2 | Sandis Vilmanis, Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen | +16.5 | VAN F1 (39% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 59 min |
| TBL F1 | Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov | +11.7 | SEA F1 (43%) | Full line, 390 min |
| VGK F1 | Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone | +10.0 | CGY F1 (43%) | Full line, 514 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
BUF F2: Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Noah Ostlund ($12,000 total)
At $12,000, the Buffalo second line is the cheapest stack with a 90th percentile in the top half of the slate (49.4). All three also run PP1, and the line holds a 67.9% shot share with the second biggest line edge of the night (+12.8). It leaves room for an EDM PP1 build on the other side.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: TBL PP1. Pivot: TOR PP1. The Lightning unit is the most popular stack on the slate by far. Toronto's top unit costs $900 less, has the 4th best 90th percentile (94.8) and draws about half the ownership, and Buffalo's kill ranks 26th in expected goals against per 60.
Chalk goalie: Carter Hart. Pivot: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,300). Vasilevskiy is confirmed with a 70.1% win chance, and the field plays him less than half as often as Hart. He also pairs with the TBL PP1 stack.
Skaters
Centers
Macklin Celebrini ($8,300): cash. He centers the San Jose top line and runs PP1 for about 20 minutes. He should get three or four shots, with a 28.7% chance at five or more, and his 5.8-point floor is among the best at the position.
Tage Thompson ($7,800): GPP. Thompson centers the Buffalo top line and runs PP1, and that line carries a +8.2 edge against Toronto's top line. He has a 31.1% chance at five or more shots, second among centers only to Jack Hughes. He comes in low-owned.
Wingers
Matthew Tkachuk ($7,400): cash. With Brad Marchand out, he skates on the Florida top line and runs PP1 for about 19 minutes. The Florida forward unit draws a SMASH tag, and Vancouver's kill ranks last. He has a 4.5-point floor and a 26-point ceiling.
Mark Stone ($7,200): GPP. Stone plays on the Vegas top line with Jack Eichel but runs PP2. That line holds a 61.2% expected goals share, and the Vegas forward unit draws a SMASH tag against Calgary. The field is ignoring him, and he lines up with our goalie.
Defensemen
Roman Josi ($6,300): cash. He plays on the Nashville top pair, runs PP1, and should play about 25 minutes. He should block one or two shots and get two or three shots, with a 4.1-point floor.
Matthew Schaefer ($6,600): GPP. He plays on the Islanders' top pair and runs PP1 for about 25 minutes. He has a 14.5% chance at five or more shots, the best among defensemen above $5,000. The Islanders have a weak total, which is why the field skips him.
Value Plays
William Karlsson (VGK C, $3,500): He centers the Vegas second line and runs PP1 on the team with the top implied total. He should play about 17 minutes and get two shots.
Christian Dvorak (PHI C, $3,200): He centers the Philadelphia top line and runs PP1, and the injury report lists him among the players who gain work with Travis Konecny out. He should play about 18 minutes.
Blocks Floor
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $3,000): He plays on the Minnesota top pair with Quinn Hughes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 31.9% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Thomas Chabot (OTT D, $5,700): He plays on the Ottawa top pair for about 25 minutes and runs PP2. He should block about two shots, with a 36.4% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Frank Nazar over 1.5 shots on goal (-122). He plays on the Chicago second line, and we have him at 2.06 shots, about half a shot over the line.
A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Hart is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Vegas turns to its backup, switch to Schmid (FLA), who is confirmed.
- Daccord, Vejmelka and Hofer, who face our three stacks, are all expected to start but not confirmed. Watch the morning skate news.
- Zach Hyman (EDM) is day-to-day. If he plays, check whether he takes Kapanen's PP1 spot.
- Jake Sanderson (OTT) and Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) are day-to-day. A Dahlin return could push Owen Power off the Buffalo PP1.
- Buffalo, Ottawa, Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota and Vegas play their third game in four nights.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Hart, the Tampa Bay top line and Josi, then fill the rest with floor plays like Brodin. In tournaments, play TBL PP1 or the cheaper TOR PP1 with Hart, and run a second set on EDM PP1 or the low-owned MIN PP1.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five players on a team's first power play unit, usually four forwards and a defenseman. They take the ice together with the extra man, so one power play goal can score for three or four of them at once. Tonight TBL PP1 has the top 90th percentile on the slate at 101.3.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie, and the skaters can look tired, more so after travel. We downgrade those spots and wait for the goalie news. No team is on a back-to-back tonight, but six play their third game in four nights.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.