Two games means we can't hide from the chalk, so we build heavier stacks and pick a goalie that fits them. Both games carry a 6.5 total, and Colorado has the top implied total at 3.81 goals. We build around the Colorado power play (COL PP1) and we trust MacKenzie Blackwood in net as a big home favorite. No team is on a back-to-back, but Colorado plays its third game in four nights.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Carter Hart, won and scored 18.6 DK points. The TBL PP1 stack scored 61.3 DK points, ninth of 22 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ COL | 6.5 | COL -215 | COL 3.81, PIT 2.85 | COL 3rd game in 4 nights |
| BOS @ ANA | 6.5 | BOS -115 | BOS 3.18, ANA 3.11 | ANA PP vs 23rd ranked PK |
The best special teams spot is in Anaheim. Boston's kill ranks 23rd in expected goals against per 60, on a blend that still leans on last season, and Anaheim's power play sits 15th. Full ranks live on our NHL team matchup ranks.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nikita Nesterenko, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke |
| Cutter Gauthier (ANA, LW) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Nikita Nesterenko, Beckett Sennecke |
| Ryan Poehling (ANA, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Nikita Nesterenko, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,200), cash
Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Colorado is a -215 home favorite, and his 65.3% win chance is the only one on the slate above 55%. Pittsburgh is implied for just 2.85 goals, and we expect a quiet night of about 24 shots and 21 saves. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Jeremy Swayman (BOS, $7,500) and build around the Boston stack in place of the Anaheim one.
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,200), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. His 7.5% shutout chance is the best of the four starters, and he faces none of our stacks. Arturs Silovs draws about the same ownership as the other three goalies with a 34.7% win chance on the road in Colorado, and we're staying away.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar
Vegas has Colorado at 3.81 goals against Silovs, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (94.6), and both Colorado units draw a SMASH tag: the forwards sit 37.1 Elo points above the Pittsburgh defense and the defensemen 48. The Colorado top line (COL1) of MacKinnon, Necas and Artturi Lehkonen holds a 55% shot share, on a blend that still leans on last season. The power play spot is only fair, since Pittsburgh's kill ranks 8th in expected goals against per 60. Nazem Kadri and T.J. Hughes complete PP1. On a two-game slate we eat this chalk. Cash and GPP.
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson
Anaheim is implied for 3.11 goals against Swayman, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the second best 90th percentile (81.9), and the correlation adds 7.8 points to it, the most of any stack tonight. Gauthier is day-to-day with an upper body injury, so watch the morning skate. Jackson LaCombe runs the point and Judd Caulfield fills the fifth spot. GPP, and the natural second stack.
BOS PP2: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie (third stack)
Boston is implied for 3.18 goals against Lukas Dostal, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. Pastrnak's group shows up as the second unit in our feed, but it has the third best 90th percentile (74.9), ahead of PIT PP1, and it carries the top line with Charlie McAvoy and Elias Lindholm. Anaheim's kill ranks 12th, so this one leans on even strength play. At $26,100 for all five, it is the cheapest of our three. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL F1 | Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | +6.7 | PIT F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 670 min |
| COL F2 | Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri, Brock Nelson | +4.7 | PIT F1 (37%) | Full line, 55 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
BOS PP1: Fraser Minten, JJ Peterka, James Hagens ($15,200 total)
At $15,200 for five players, Boston's first unit is the cheapest stack with a 90th percentile in the top half of the slate (63.0, 6th of 24). Frederic Brunet and Casey Mittelstadt complete it, and the correlation adds 6.4 points. It costs $17,000 less than COL PP1, so a piece or two of it frees up room for MacKinnon or Makar.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: COL PP1. Pivot: ANA PP1. Colorado's unit is the most popular stack on the slate by a mile. On two games we play the chalk, and ANA PP1, at about half the ownership, is the stack for a second build.
Chalk goalie: Jeremy Swayman. Pivot: MacKenzie Blackwood. The field splits the four goalies almost evenly, with Swayman the most popular by a hair. Swayman's win chance is only 51.2%, so we take the clear favorite instead.
Skaters
Centers
Brock Nelson ($4,800): cash. He centers the Colorado second line and runs PP2 for about 18 minutes. He should get two shots, his 2.8-point floor is solid for the price, and his line carries a +4.7 edge.
Sidney Crosby ($6,200): GPP. Crosby centers the Pittsburgh top line and runs PP1 for about 19 minutes. He is the one skater we allow against Blackwood, and the field leaves him low-owned in a tough road spot. His 19-point ceiling is the best among centers under $6,500.
Wingers
Artturi Lehkonen ($5,000): cash. He plays on COL1 with MacKinnon but runs PP2. That line draws a SMASH tag, holds a 55% shot share and carries the best line edge of the night (+6.7). He should get about two shots.
Alex Killorn ($3,700): GPP. Killorn skates on the Anaheim top line and runs PP2. That line holds a 56.6% shot share, the best of any forward line tonight, and he should get about two shots. Most of the field goes to the Anaheim second line instead.
Defensemen
Devon Toews ($4,000): cash. He plays on the Colorado top pair with Makar and runs PP2 for about 22 minutes. That pair carries a +8.2 edge over 986 minutes together, and he has a 2.6-point floor.
Sam Malinski ($3,500): GPP. Malinski plays on the Colorado second pair with no power play role, but he should get about two shots, the most of any defenseman under $4,500. His 14.1-point ceiling is cheap for a skater on the team with the top total.
Value Plays
Nikita Nesterenko (ANA W, $2,500): With Troy Terry out, he skates on the Anaheim second line with Gauthier and Sennecke. He should play about 13 minutes at the minimum price.
Nikita Klepov (ANA W, $2,500): He plays on the Anaheim top line with Carlsson and Killorn and runs PP2. That line drives the best shot share on the slate, and he costs the minimum.
Blocks Floor
Brett Kulak (COL D, $2,800): He plays on the Colorado second pair with Malinski and has no power play role. He should block one or two shots, with a 20.3% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Noah Warren (ANA D, $2,900): He plays on the Anaheim top pair with LaCombe for about 20 minutes and has no power play role. He should block one or two shots, with a 19.5% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Before Lock
- All four goalies are expected to start, none confirmed. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Swayman (BOS) and use the Boston stacks with him.
- Cutter Gauthier (ANA) is day-to-day with an upper body injury. If he sits, ANA PP1 loses its top shot taker, so check line rushes before you play it.
- Mikael Granlund (ANA) is also day-to-day. Check the Anaheim lines again if he plays.
- Colorado plays its third game in four nights. No team is on a back-to-back.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Blackwood, MacKinnon, Necas and Makar, then fill the rest with the cash plays above. In tournaments, play COL PP1 with Blackwood and add ANA PP1 or BOS PP2 as the second stack, and run a few builds with the cheap BOS PP1 group.
NHL DFS FAQ
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
A forward line plays its shifts together, so one goal often scores for two or three of them at once with the goal and the assists. That correlation is what pushes a lineup past the field. Tonight the Colorado top line has the best line edge on the slate at +6.7.
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes, when you can. A goalie wins when his team scores, so his win bonus and your stack's points tend to show up on the same night. Tonight Blackwood and COL PP1 come from the same team, which is the cleanest pairing on the slate.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.