Ten games gives us room to spread out, so we mix one-offs with a few different stacks and save the leverage for the third one. Every game carries a 5.5 or 6.5 total, and Edmonton at Utah has the most goals implied, with Utah at 3.51 and Edmonton at 3.17. We build around the Detroit power play (DET PP1) at home against San Jose, and Jake Oettinger is the goalie we trust as a -215 road favorite in Chicago. Boston and Pittsburgh both play the second night of a back-to-back after travel.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, MacKenzie Blackwood, won and scored 19.3 DK points with 29 saves. The COL PP1 stack scored 85.2 DK points, first of 4 PP1 units on the slate.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT @ PHI | 5.5 | OTT -154 | OTT 2.90, PHI 2.46 | none |
| DAL @ CHI | 5.5 | DAL -215 | DAL 3.32, CHI 2.44 | DAL PP (1st) vs CHI PK (18th) |
| SJS @ DET | 6.5 | DET -156 | DET 3.43, SJS 2.92 | DET PP (4th) vs SJS PK (29th) |
| NYI @ TOR | 6.5 | TOR -128 | TOR 3.27, NYI 3.05 | TOR PP vs NYI PK (31st) |
| BUF @ MTL | 6.5 | MTL -140 | MTL 3.38, BUF 3.03 | BUF without Rasmus Dahlin |
| NYR @ CBJ | 6.5 | CBJ -137 | CBJ 3.35, NYR 3.03 | NYR PP (6th) vs CBJ PK (30th) |
| STL @ NSH | 5.5 | STL -115 | STL 2.94, NSH 2.87 | none |
| BOS @ LAK | 5.5 | LAK -137 | LAK 3.00, BOS 2.70 | BOS on a back-to-back after travel |
| EDM @ UTA | 6.5 | UTA -138 | UTA 3.51, EDM 3.17 | EDM PP (2nd) vs UTA PK (13th) |
| PIT @ VGK | 6.5 | VGK -200 | VGK 3.71, PIT 2.86 | PIT on a back-to-back after travel |
The best special teams spot is in Detroit. The Red Wings create the 4th most expected goals per 60 on the power play, and San Jose allows the 29th most on the kill, on a blend that still leans on last season. Full ranks live on our NHL team matchup ranks.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin (BUF, D) | Out | 9 | Mattias Samuelsson, Zach Metsa, Owen Power |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Brayden Schenn |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Out | 8 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Wyatt Johnston (DAL, C) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen |
| Jake Sanderson (OTT, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Artem Zub, Jordan Spence, Cameron Crotty |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Christian Dvorak, Sean Couturier, Trevor Zegras |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $7,700), cash
Oettinger is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Dallas is a -215 road favorite, and his 65.3% win chance is the best on the main slate. Chicago is implied for just 2.44 goals and creates the fewest expected goals per 60 at 5v5 in the league, so we expect about 21 shots and 18 saves. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to John Gibson (DET, $7,300), who is confirmed and lines up with our Detroit stack.
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $7,700), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. His 11.9% shutout chance is the best of any goalie with a win chance of 55% or more, and he goes in the same build as our DAL PP1 stack. Michael DiPietro gets some interest at $8,200, but Boston is a road underdog on a back-to-back and his win chance is 44.7%. We're staying away.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
DET PP1: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider
Detroit is implied for 3.43 goals against Yaroslav Askarov, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (96.1). The Detroit forwards sit 29.6 Elo points above the San Jose defense, just short of a SMASH tag, and the DeBrincat line drives 53.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's blend. The power play spot is the best of the night: Detroit's unit ranks 4th and the Sharks' kill ranks 29th. Viktor Arvidsson and Lucas Raymond fill out the unit. It is the chalk, and we play it anyway. Cash and GPP.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen
Dallas is implied for 3.32 goals against Spencer Knight, who is confirmed. Chicago's forwards and defense both draw TOUGH tags against Dallas, and the Robertson line has the best line edge on the main slate (+15.1). The Stars' power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, against a Chicago kill that ranks 18th. The correlation adds 9.5 points at the 90th percentile, and Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin complete the unit. Pair it with Oettinger. GPP.
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard (contrarian)
Edmonton is implied for 3.17 goals against Karel Vejmelka, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the third best 90th percentile (91.7) and a fraction of Detroit's ownership. The Oilers defense draws a SMASH tag (58.5 Elo points over the Utah defense), the McDavid line holds a 55% shot share, and Edmonton's power play ranks 2nd against a Utah kill ranked 13th. Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen complete it. At $36,400 it is the most expensive unit on the board, and that price keeps most of the field off it. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL F2 | Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz | +15.1 | CHI F1 (36% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 122 min |
| STL F2 | Connor McMichael, Mason McTavish, Jonatan Berggren | +10.1 | NSH F1 (39%) | McMichael and McTavish, 70 min |
| DET F1 | Emmitt Finnie, Alex DeBrincat, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | +8.2 | SJS F1 (43%) | Full line, 60 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
BUF F2: Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, Zach Benson ($12,400 total)
This is the cheapest line on the slate with a 90th percentile in the top half (47.6), and all three of them also play on the Buffalo top power play. The line carries a +5.4 edge, and Montreal's kill ranks 23rd. It costs $19,200 less than DET PP1, which pays for a high-end skater or a pricier goalie.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: DET PP1. Pivot: LAK PP1. Detroit is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin. The Kings' unit of Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere, Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke costs $28,500, has a 90th percentile of 90.6 and draws far less ownership. Boston is on a back-to-back after travel.
Chalk goalie: Carter Hart. Pivot: Jake Oettinger. Hart is the most popular goalie, and he is fine at a 63.8% win chance. Oettinger has the better win chance at lower ownership and $500 less salary.
Skaters
Centers
Auston Matthews ($8,200): cash. Matthews centers the Toronto top line and runs PP1 for about 21 minutes, and he takes on more of the load with John Tavares out. He should get three or four shots, and the Islanders allow the 31st most expected goals per 60 on the kill. He is popular, and that is fine in cash.
Tage Thompson ($7,800): GPP. Thompson centers the Buffalo top line and runs PP1 for about 20 minutes. He should get three or four shots with a 24.9% chance at five or more, and the field is passing on him for pricier centers.
Wingers
Cole Caufield ($7,600): cash. Caufield plays on the Montreal top line with Nick Suzuki and runs PP1 for about 19 minutes. He should get three or four shots against a Buffalo team without Dahlin, and the Sabres' kill ranks 26th.
David Pastrnak ($8,100): GPP. Pastrnak plays on the Boston top line and runs PP1 for about 19 minutes. He should get three or four shots, and the Kings' penalty kill is only 69.1% so far, 31st in the league. Boston is on the second night of a back-to-back, which keeps him low-owned.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($8,000): cash. He plays on the Columbus top pair and runs PP1 for about 27 minutes, the most ice time on the slate. He should get three or four shots, his pair with Damon Severson carries a +10.7 edge, and the Columbus defense draws a SMASH tag against the Rangers.
Roman Josi ($6,300): GPP. Josi plays on the Nashville top pair and runs PP1 for about 25 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and the field leaves him low-owned in a 5.5 total game. The Predators' power play is converting at 27.1% so far, 2nd in the league.
Value Plays
Matias Maccelli (NYI W, $3,100): With Mathew Barzal out, he plays on the Islanders top line with Bo Horvat and runs PP1 for about 16 minutes. That is a top-six role at a bottom-six price.
Emmitt Finnie (DET C, $2,800): He centers the Detroit top line with DeBrincat, a line with a +8.2 edge and a 53.9% shot share. He should play about 17 minutes against the Sharks.
Blocks Floor
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $4,500): He plays on the Utah top pair with Mikhail Sergachev and has no power play role. He should block two or three shots, with a 39.9% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Colton Parayko (STL D, $3,900): He plays on the St. Louis second pair for about 21 minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 31.8% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Before Lock
- Oettinger is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to John Gibson (DET).
- Askarov (facing DET PP1) and Vejmelka (facing EDM PP1) are not yet confirmed, and neither is Hart, the most popular goalie. Watch the morning skate.
- Wyatt Johnston (DAL) is day-to-day with an illness. If he sits, check the Dallas lines before you play DAL PP1.
- Jake Sanderson (OTT) is day-to-day with a lower body injury.
- Boston and Pittsburgh are on a back-to-back after travel. Michael DiPietro and Sergei Murashov are expected to start, not confirmed.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Oettinger, DeBrincat, Seider, Matthews and Werenski, then fill out with the cash plays above. In tournaments, play DAL PP1 with Oettinger and add DET PP1, or go to EDM PP1 for leverage and use the BUF F2 line to pay for it.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm their starter after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. As of this morning, 6 of the 20 goalies on the main slate are confirmed, including Gibson and Knight. Check our goalie page again before lock.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup wants a high floor: big minutes, PP1 time and a goalie who is a clear favorite, even when those players are popular. A GPP lineup wants ceiling and some players the field skips. Tonight that means DET PP1 and Matthews for cash, and EDM PP1 or Thompson for tournaments.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.