Two games means a short player list, so we build heavy stacks, pair the goalie with them and don't fight the chalk. Both games carry a 6.5 total. Carolina has the most goals implied at 3.56 in Calgary, and Minnesota is right behind at 3.54 at home against Columbus. We build around the Minnesota power play (MIN PP1), and Brandon Bussi is the goalie we trust. Carolina and Columbus both play the second night of a back-to-back after travel.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Jake Oettinger, won with a 19-save shutout and scored 23.3 DK points. The DET PP1 stack scored 49.5 DK points, 10th of 20 PP1 units, so that one missed.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ @ MIN | 6.5 | MIN -188 | MIN 3.54, CBJ 2.79 | CBJ on a back-to-back after travel, MIN PP (10th) vs CBJ PK (30th) |
| CAR @ CGY | 6.5 | CAR -220 | CAR 3.56, CGY 2.61 | CAR on a back-to-back after travel |
The best special teams spot is in Minnesota. The Wild create the 10th most expected goals per 60 on the power play, and Columbus allows the 30th most on the kill, on a blend that still leans on last season. Full ranks live on our NHL team matchup ranks.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis (CAR, C) | Injured Reserve | 9 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov |
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jonas Brodin, Daemon Hunt, Zach Bogosian |
| Taylor Hall (CAR, LW) | Out | 6 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov |
| Jordan Staal (CAR, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov |
| Jared Spurgeon (MIN, D) | Out | 6 | Jonas Brodin, Daemon Hunt, Zach Bogosian |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jesper Wallstedt |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Brandon Bussi (CAR, $8,300), cash
Bussi is confirmed for Sunday in Calgary, so the back-to-back doesn't scare us off him. Carolina is a -220 road favorite, and his 65.8% win chance is the best on the slate. The Flames are implied for just 2.61 goals, and Carolina allows the fewest 5v5 shots per 60 in the league. That caps his saves at about 20, but the win is what we're paying for.
Brandon Bussi (CAR, $8,300), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. His 8.9% shutout chance is the best of the two goalies with a win chance of 55% or more, and he fits next to our CAR PP1 stack. Dustin Wolf will be popular at $7,100, but Calgary is a big home underdog and his win chance is 34.2%. We're staying away.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota is implied for 3.54 goals against Cam Talbot, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (98.8), and the correlation adds 10.5 points there, the most of any stack. The Wild defensemen draw a SMASH tag, 31.9 Elo points over the Columbus defense, and the Kaprizov line drives 52.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's blend. The Wild power play is converting at 28.1%, 3rd in the league, against a Columbus kill that ranks 30th in expected goals against. It is the chalk, and we play it anyway. Cash and GPP.
CAR PP1: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere
Carolina is implied for 3.56 goals against Dustin Wolf, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The Carolina forwards sit 69.2 Elo points above the Calgary defense, the biggest SMASH gap of the night, and the Aho line drives 61.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts. The Canes power play ranks 7th in expected goals per 60, against a Calgary kill that ranks 19th. The one knock is the back-to-back after travel, which we treat as a small downgrade. Pair it with Bussi. GPP.
CBJ PP1: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Matthew Knies (third stack)
Columbus is implied for 2.79 goals against Jesper Wallstedt, who is confirmed. This is the third best 90th percentile on the slate (80.0), and the Columbus defensemen draw a SMASH tag, 47 Elo points over the Minnesota defense. The Blue Jackets power play ranks 14th, and the Wild kill ranks 22nd. Columbus is also on a back-to-back after travel. On a two-game slate we eat the chalk, and this is our second build. Never play it with Wallstedt. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR F1 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | +13.1 | CGY F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 71 min |
| CAR F2 | Bradly Nadeau, Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | +8.4 | CGY F1 (37%) | Blake and Stankoven, 1214 min |
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +8.3 | CBJ F1 (44%) | Full line, 253 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
CAR F2: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven, Bradly Nadeau ($14,000 total)
This is the cheapest line on the slate with a 90th percentile in the top half (45.0). The line drives 57.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, carries a +8.4 edge, and Blake also plays on the top power play. It costs $16,900 less than MIN PP1, which pays for Bussi and a high-end defenseman.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MIN PP1. Pivot: CAR PP1. Minnesota is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, and on two games we play it. Carolina is the second build: a 90th percentile of 83.6, far less ownership and the best Elo matchup of the night.
Chalk goalie: Jesper Wallstedt. Pivot: Brandon Bussi. Wallstedt is the most popular goalie, and he is fine at a 62.5% win chance with a confirmed start. Bussi has the better win chance at a little less ownership, so he leads our builds and Wallstedt goes in the second one.
Skaters
Centers
Charlie Coyle ($4,400): cash. Coyle skates on the Columbus third line but stays on the top power play, and he should play about 18 minutes. He should get about two shots, and the PP1 time at this price gives him a safe floor. The Wild kill ranks 22nd.
Sean Monahan ($3,300): GPP. He centers the Columbus second line and runs PP2 for about 17 minutes. He should get about two shots, and the field barely looks at him. He is a cheap way to get a Columbus piece without the PP1 price.
Wingers
Matt Boldy ($7,500): cash. Boldy plays on the Minnesota top line and runs PP1 for about 21 minutes. He should get three or four shots, with a 26.7% chance at five or more. He is popular, and that is fine in cash.
Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,700): GPP. Ehlers skates on the Carolina third line but plays on the top power play, about 16 minutes in all. He should get two or three shots, and his line drives 58.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts. The field goes to Aho and Svechnikov first, so he stays low-owned.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($8,200): cash. He plays on the Columbus top pair and runs PP1 for about 27 minutes, the most ice time on the slate. He should get about three shots, and he has a 24.9% chance at three or more blocked shots too. That floor is why he leads the position.
Sean Walker ($4,200): GPP. Walker plays on the Carolina second pair with K'Andre Miller for about 21 minutes and has no power play role. The pair drives 59.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts and carries a +6.4 edge against Calgary. He should get about two shots and block one or two, and he is low-owned.
Value Plays
Max Shabanov (MIN W, $3,200): He plays on the third line but runs PP1 with Kaprizov and Hughes, about 14 and a half minutes in all. A top power play spot on the slate's best stack at $3,200 is a gift.
Blake Coleman (MIN W, $3,400): He plays on the Minnesota second line for about 16 minutes and runs PP2. He should get about two shots, and he is a good value at this price.
Blocks Floor
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $3,100): He plays on the Minnesota top pair with Hughes for about 23 minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 37.2% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Cash and floor play.
Erik Gudbranson (CBJ D, $2,600): He plays on the Columbus third pair for about 18 minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 29.1% chance at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Ryan Hartman over 1.5 shots on goal (-130): we have him for about 1.8 shots, the biggest gap we found on a prop priced -150 or better. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Dustin Wolf (CGY) and Cam Talbot (CBJ) are expected to start, not yet confirmed. Our CAR PP1 and MIN PP1 stacks face them. If either team turns to its backup, the stack facing it gets better.
- Brandon Bussi and Jesper Wallstedt are confirmed. Nothing to switch in net unless that changes.
- Carolina and Columbus are both on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Watch the line rushes for any rest days.
- Seth Jarvis (CAR) is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Check the Carolina lines before you lock CAR PP1.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Bussi, Boldy, Werenski and Coyle, then fill out with the MIN PP1 core and the cheap plays above. In tournaments, play MIN PP1 with Bussi and add CAR PP1, or build the second lineup around CBJ PP1 and use CAR F2 to pay for it.
NHL DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
Teams on the second night often start the backup goalie, and tired legs can mean fewer shots. Tonight both Carolina and Columbus are on one after travel, but Carolina confirmed Bussi anyway, so we still trust him. We knock their stacks down a little and still play them.
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five players on a team's top power play unit. When that unit scores, three or four of them get points on the same goal. Tonight MIN PP1 gets the best spot on the slate against the 30th ranked Columbus kill.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.