Eleven games gives us plenty of stacks to pick from, so we spread out with more one-offs and save one build for a low-owned stack. Seven of the games carry a 6.5 total, and Carolina has the most goals implied at 3.93 in Vancouver. We build around the Edmonton power play (EDM PP1), and Pyotr Kochetkov is the goalie we trust.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, MacKenzie Blackwood, lost and scored 4.2 DK points. The TOR PP1 stack scored 64.7 DK points, first of 8 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK @ WSH | 5.5 | WSH -160 | WSH 3.10, LAK 2.60 | none |
| SJS @ MTL | 6.5 | MTL -210 | MTL 3.77, SJS 2.85 | SJS on a back-to-back after travel |
| COL @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -114 | NJD 3.24, COL 3.19 | COL on a back-to-back after travel |
| ANA @ NYI | 5.5 | NYI -154 | NYI 3.09, ANA 2.64 | ANA on a back-to-back after travel |
| TOR @ CBJ | 6.5 | CBJ -154 | CBJ 3.46, TOR 2.98 | TOR on a back-to-back after travel |
| BOS @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -170 | DAL 3.09, BOS 2.52 | DAL PP (1st) vs BOS PK (18th) |
| WPG @ STL | 5.5 | STL -142 | STL 3.01, WPG 2.66 | none |
| MIN @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -134 | EDM 3.33, MIN 3.04 | EDM PP (2nd) vs MIN PK (22nd) |
| DET @ SEA | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | DET 3.20, SEA 3.20 | DET PP (5th) vs SEA PK (27th) |
| CAR @ VAN | 6.5 | CAR -300 | CAR 3.93, VAN 2.55 | VAN PK ranks 32nd |
| TBL @ VGK | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | TBL 3.13, VGK 3.13 | none |
The best special teams spot is in Vancouver. The Canucks allow the most expected goals per 60 on the penalty kill in the league, and Carolina's power play ranks 9th.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber (MIN, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jonas Brodin, Daemon Hunt, Zach Bogosian |
| Troy Terry (ANA, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Mikael Granlund, Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson |
| Mathew Barzal (NYI, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Emil Heineman, Bo Horvat, Brayden Schenn |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Mario Ferraro, Dylan DeMelo |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Colton Dach, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl |
| Matt Duchene (DAL, C) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Sam Steel, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR, $8,500), cash
Carolina is a -300 road favorite, and Kochetkov's 71.8% win chance is the best on the slate by a wide margin. He is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Vancouver is implied for 2.55 goals and takes the second fewest 5v5 shots per 60, so he should only face about 19 shots. We're paying for the win. If Carolina turns to its backup, switch to Logan Thompson (WSH, $8,400), who is confirmed with a 58.8% win chance.
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR, $8,500), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. Seven goalies clear a 55% win chance tonight, and Kochetkov has the best shutout chance of them at 12.3%. He fits right next to our CAR PP1 stack, and Jake Oettinger is the next best shutout chance at 11.7%.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton is implied for 3.33 goals against Jesper Wallstedt, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The Oilers defensemen draw a SMASH tag, 53.1 points over the Minnesota defense in our NHL Elo ratings. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the board (102.3), and correlation adds 12.7 points to it, the most of any stack. The McDavid line drives 55.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Edmonton creates the 2nd most expected goals per 60 on the power play, and Minnesota allows the 22nd most on the kill, on a blend that still leans on last season. It is popular. Cash and GPP.
DET PP1: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider
Detroit is implied for 3.20 goals against Joey Daccord, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed. The Elo matchup is even, so the case is the power play: Detroit creates the 5th most expected goals per 60 with the extra man, and Seattle's kill ranks 27th, on a blend that still leans on last season. Larkin's line drives 51.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts and carries a +6.9 edge. The 90th percentile is 96.1, fourth on the slate. GPP.
CAR PP1: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jackson Blake (contrarian)
Carolina has the highest implied total on the slate at 3.93, against Leevi Merilainen, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed and has a 28.2% win chance. The Hurricanes forwards draw a SMASH tag, 91.4 Elo points over the Vancouver defense, the biggest gap of the night. The Aho line drives 61.4% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the Canucks kill ranks dead last. The one knock: Carolina plays its third game in four nights. It should come in low-owned. GPP, with Kochetkov behind it.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR F1 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | +22.7 | VAN F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 82 min |
| MTL F1 | Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | +9.7 | SJS F1 (45%) | Full line, 785 min |
| DET F1 | Emmitt Finnie, Alex DeBrincat, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | +9.2 | SEA F1 (44%) | Full line, 70 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
NYI F1: Bo Horvat, Brayden Schenn, Simon Holmstrom ($13,400 total)
All three skate on the Islanders top line and run PP1 together. The 90th percentile (58.4) sits in the top half of the slate, and Anaheim is on the second night of a back-to-back after travel, with Lukas Dostal at an .882 save percentage this season. At $13,400 for three forwards, this line pays for McDavid.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MTL PP1. Pivot: NYI PP1. Montreal is the most popular stack on the slate, and the spot is real against a tired San Jose team. With eleven games, we can afford to go elsewhere. The Islanders power play has a 90th percentile of 87.4, correlation adds 9.8 points, and it comes in at about half the ownership.
Chalk goalie: Logan Thompson. Pivot: Jake Oettinger. Thompson is the most popular goalie and clears our 55% bar, so he's fine. Oettinger is a -170 home favorite with a 60.2% win chance, and the field is ignoring him. He is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Jet Greaves (CBJ, $7,800), who is confirmed.
Skaters
Centers
Adam Fantilli ($5,800): cash. He centers the Columbus top line and runs PP1 for about 20 minutes. He should get about three shots, and Columbus is implied for 3.46 against a Toronto team on the second night of a back-to-back that allows the most 5v5 shots per 60. Expect him to be popular.
Jack Hughes ($7,900): GPP. Hughes skates on the second line and stays on PP1, about 20 minutes. He has a 25% chance at five or more shots, and Colorado is on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. The field is mostly skipping him.
Wingers
Jason Robertson ($7,300): cash. Robertson plays on the Dallas top line and runs PP1, about 20 minutes. He should get three or four shots. Dallas creates the most expected goals per 60 on the power play in the league, and Matt Duchene's injury keeps more of it on Robertson's stick.
Matt Boldy ($7,700): GPP. Boldy rides the Minnesota top line with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek and plays PP1, about 21 minutes. His 31% chance at five or more shots is the best on the slate, and his line has a +7.1 edge with a 66.5% expected goals share. He is the bring-back for our EDM PP1 stack.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($8,000): cash. He plays on the Columbus top pair and runs PP1, about 27 minutes, the most of any skater on the board. He should get three or four shots, and his floor of 6.0 points is the safest on the slate. Columbus's defensemen also grade out as a SMASH against Toronto.
Cale Makar ($7,500): GPP. Makar plays on the Colorado top pair and runs PP1, about 23 minutes. The Avalanche defensemen draw a 67-point SMASH tag over the New Jersey defense, the second biggest gap tonight. Colorado's back-to-back will scare people off him, and we're fine with that.
Value Plays
Zack Bolduc (MTL W, $2,700): He plays on the third line but stays on the Montreal top power play, on the team with the second highest implied total. How he is still priced at $2,700 with that role is a mystery.
Easton Cowan (TOR W, $2,900): He skates on the Toronto top line with Auston Matthews and runs PP2, about 16 minutes. Toronto is on a back-to-back, and we'll take a top-line role at $2,900 anyway.
Blocks Floor
Jake McCabe (TOR D, $2,800): McCabe plays on the Toronto top pair with Darren Raddysh for about 22 minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 34.5% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Adam Larsson (SEA D, $3,400): Same idea in Seattle: Larsson skates with Vince Dunn on the top pair for about 23 minutes and stays off the power play. Figure about two blocks and a 32.8% shot at the bonus. Cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Brandon Hagel over 2.5 shots on goal (-130): we have him for about three shots, the biggest gap we found on a prop priced -150 or better.
Emmitt Finnie over 1.5 shots on goal (-130): we have him for about two shots on the Detroit top line. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Kochetkov is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Carolina turns to its backup, switch to Thompson.
- Wallstedt and Daccord face our EDM PP1 and DET PP1 stacks and are not confirmed. If either team goes to its backup, the stack facing it gets better.
- Oettinger is not confirmed. If Dallas goes to its backup, switch to Greaves.
- San Jose, Colorado, Anaheim and Toronto all play the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Watch for goalie and lineup changes.
- The Islanders line sources disagree on Brayden Schenn and Kyle Palmieri. Check the line rushes before you lock NYI F1.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Kochetkov, Werenski, Fantilli and Robertson, then fill out with EDM PP1 forwards and the two value plays. In tournaments, run EDM PP1 with a CAR PP1 mini-stack and Kochetkov, or build a second lineup around DET PP1 and use NYI F1 to pay for it.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup only needs to beat about half the field, so it chases floor: goalies with a high win chance, PP1 skaters and big minutes. A GPP lineup needs to finish near the top, so it stacks a line or power play and takes on less popular players. Tonight Werenski is a cash play for his floor, and CAR PP1 is a tournament play because the field is light on it.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Tonight six starters are confirmed, and the rest are expected starters. Check again close to lock and have a switch ready for every goalie who is not confirmed.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.