Two games means a small player pool, so we build heavy stacks and pick a goalie who wins when our stack scores. Both totals sit at 5.5, and Buffalo has the most goals implied at 3.30 at home against Philadelphia. We build around the Buffalo power play (BUF PP1), and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the goalie we trust.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Pyotr Kochetkov, won and scored 5.3 DK points. The EDM PP1 stack scored 75.8 DK points, fourth of 22 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ BUF | 5.5 | BUF -192 | BUF 3.30, PHI 2.56 | PHI PP (12th) vs BUF PK (26th) |
| FLA @ OTT | 5.5 | Pick'em (-110) | OTT 2.80, FLA 2.79 | FLA PP (4th) vs OTT PK (5th) |
Nobody is on a back-to-back tonight. The best special teams spot belongs to Philadelphia: Buffalo allows the 26th most expected goals per 60 on the penalty kill, on a blend that still leans on last season.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Lars Eller, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk |
| Rasmus Dahlin (BUF, D) | Day-To-Day | 7 | Mattias Samuelsson, Olen Zellweger |
| Owen Tippett (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Noel Acciari, Noah Cates, Trevor Zegras |
| Thomas Chabot (OTT, D) | Out | 7 | Artem Zub, Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Noel Acciari, Noah Cates, Trevor Zegras |
| William Eklund (OTT, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson, Stephen Halliday |
| Jason Zucker (BUF, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jiri Kulich, Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn |
| Cam York (PHI, D) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Travis Sanheim, Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF, $8,200), cash
Luukkonen was in the starter's crease at Buffalo's morning skate, so he is expected to start but not yet confirmed. His 62.6% win chance is the only one on the slate above 55%. Philadelphia is implied for 2.56 goals and takes the fewest 5v5 shots per 60 in the league, so he should face about 23 shots and make about 20 saves. If Buffalo turns to its backup, switch to Linus Ullmark (OTT, $7,600) and build around OTT PP1 in place of FLA PP1.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF, $8,200), GPP
He is our tournament goalie too. No other goalie clears 55% tonight, and his 9.3% shutout chance ties Ullmark for the best on the slate. He sits behind our BUF PP1 stack, so a big Buffalo night pays us on both ends. His .854 save percentage in six games this season is the worry.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
BUF PP1: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn
Buffalo is implied for 3.30 goals against Dan Vladar, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed and has a 37.4% win chance. Run the whole unit with Zach Benson and Noah Ostlund. It has the top 90th percentile on the board (85.1), and correlation adds 8.2 points, the most of any stack. The matchup is tougher than the total says. Buffalo's power play ranks 18th in expected goals per 60, and Philadelphia's kill allows the 6th fewest, on a blend that still leans on last season. The Elo matchups are even for both the forwards and the defense. The Quinn line drives 54% of the 5v5 shot attempts on last season's shot share, and Dahlin is day-to-day, so check him before lock. On a small slate we eat the chalk. Cash and GPP.
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart
Florida is implied for 2.79 goals against Ullmark, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Ullmark has a .945 save percentage in seven games this season. Florida creates the 4th most expected goals per 60 with the extra man, and Ottawa allows the 5th fewest on the kill, so this is strength against strength. The Tkachuk top line drives 56.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Marchand's injury pushes more of the work onto both brothers. The 90th percentile is 82.2, second on the slate. GPP.
OTT PP1: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson (third stack)
Ottawa is implied for 2.80 goals against Akira Schmid, who is expected to start but not yet confirmed and carries an .883 save percentage this season. The Ottawa defense draws an even Elo matchup, 23.9 points over the Florida defense in our NHL Elo ratings. William Eklund's injury moves more power play time to Stützle and Batherson. The power play ranks 23rd in expected goals per 60 against a Florida kill that ranks 9th, so we want this unit for its minutes. Stützle should play about 21 minutes. This is the next best stack by 90th percentile (69.3), and it doubles as a bring-back to FLA PP1. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF F2 | Zach Benson, Noah Ostlund, Jack Quinn | +13.8 | PHI F1 (37% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 102 min |
| BUF F1 | Tage Thompson, Jiri Kulich, Josh Doan | +5.4 | PHI F1 (42%) | Doan & Thompson, 454 min |
| FLA F1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | +2.4 | OTT F1 (45%) | Bennett & Tkachuk, 396 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
BUF PP2: Josh Doan, Owen Power, Josh Norris, Konsta Helenius ($14,100 total)
This is the Buffalo second power play unit, and it gets real time: the Sabres rank 5th in power play minutes per game. The 90th percentile (47.2) sits in the top half of the slate, and correlation adds 4.8 points. Doan skates on the top line with Thompson at even strength. At $14,100 for four skaters, it leaves room for the Tkachuk brothers in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: BUF PP1. Pivot: FLA PP1. Buffalo's power play is the most popular stack by a wide margin. On two games we play the chalk and save FLA PP1 for the second build.
Chalk goalie: Luukkonen. Pivot: none. He is the most popular goalie and the only one we like. Ullmark and Schmid sit at a coin flip, and each faces one of our stacks, so we play Luukkonen everywhere.
Skaters
Centers
Sam Bennett ($5,700): cash. Bennett centers the Florida top line between the Tkachuks and runs PP2, about 18 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and his line has the best 5v5 shot share in this game. Expect him to be popular.
Dylan Cozens ($4,200): GPP. He centers the Ottawa second line next to Batherson and plays PP2, about 17 minutes. Cozens has an 8.1% chance at five or more shots, which is a lot for $4,200. He should come in well below Stützle's ownership, and that's the point.
Wingers
Claude Giroux ($3,000): cash. Giroux skates on the Ottawa top line with Stützle and plays PP2, about 18 minutes. We get top-line minutes for $3,000, and he should get one or two shots.
Carter Verhaeghe ($6,600): GPP. He plays on the second line but stays on the Florida top power play, about 18 minutes. Verhaeghe should get two or three shots, and the field will skip him at this price.
Defensemen
Seth Jones ($5,000): cash. Jones plays on the second pair with Niko Mikkola but quarterbacks PP1, about 23 minutes. His floor of 2.8 points is one of the safest among the defensemen, and he adds about one blocked shot.
Olen Zellweger ($3,700): GPP. Zellweger plays on the Buffalo second pair with Owen Power and has no power play role, about 19 minutes. That pair carries a +9.9 matchup edge, and he should get about two shots. He will be low-owned.
Value Plays
Fabian Zetterlund (OTT W, $2,600): He plays on the Ottawa top line with Stützle and runs PP2, about 14 minutes. That role at $2,600 is the best value on the slate.
Jiri Kulich (BUF C, $2,500): He centers the Buffalo top line between Thompson and Doan, about 15 minutes, on the team with the most goals implied. How he is still priced at the minimum is a mystery.
Blocks Floor
Artem Zub (OTT D, $3,200): Zub plays on the Ottawa top pair with Sanderson for about 24 minutes and has no power play role. He should block about two shots, with a 28% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Tyler Kleven (OTT D, $2,900): Kleven skates on the second pair with Jordan Spence for about 20 minutes and stays off the power play. Figure about two blocks and a 25.2% shot at the bonus. Same job as Zub: a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Shane Pinto over 1.5 shots on goal (-146): we have him for about two shots, the biggest gap we found on a prop priced -150 or better.
Anton Lundell over 1.5 shots on goal (-114): we have him for about two shots on the Florida third line. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Luukkonen is expected to start, not yet confirmed. If Buffalo turns to its backup, switch to Ullmark and build around OTT PP1.
- Vladar, Ullmark and Schmid are all expected starters, not confirmed. A backup in front of any of our stacks makes that stack better.
- Dahlin is day-to-day. If he sits, BUF PP1 loses its quarterback, so check the morning skate and line rushes.
- Ottawa plays without Chabot and Eklund. Watch the line rushes for changes on the top pair and PP1.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Luukkonen, Jones and Bennett, add a BUF PP1 mini-stack, and use a value play to make the salary work. In tournaments, run the full BUF PP1 with Luukkonen behind it, and build a second lineup around FLA PP1 with an OTT PP1 bring-back.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five skaters on a team's top power play unit. When that unit scores, several of them pick up a point, so their DK scores move together. Tonight BUF PP1 has the highest ceiling on the slate.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
On the second night of a back-to-back, teams often start their backup goalie, and tired skaters give up more shots. That makes the tired team's goalie a fade and the other team's stack better. Nobody plays on a back-to-back tonight, so all four teams start fresh.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.