Tuesday's NBA DFS main slate has four games, so the DraftKings and FanDuel fields will crowd onto the same few value plays. Portland at the Lakers is the best place to be, a 233.5 total with a 1.5 point spread. The injury that moves the most salary is Jalen Duren's hamstring, which hands the Detroit center job to Paul Reed.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Paul Reed, Deni Avdija, Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum
- Best GPP pivot: Victor Wembanyama ($10,800), low-owned with Tobias Harris out and the top team total on the slate
- Best cheap play: Daniss Jenkins ($4,800), a starter's role with Duren out
- Check before lock: Ausar Thompson (questionable, ankle), Jenkins and Javonte Green gain minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Portland at the Lakers, tips 11:00 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Jayson Tatum | $9,500 | 28 | 42.25 | 4.5x | Miss |
| Cash core | Ajay Mitchell | $4,600 | 25 | 42.00 | 9.1x | Hit |
| Cash core | Kenrich Williams | $3,000 | 24 | 15.75 | 5.3x | Solid |
| Cash core | Jay Huff | $3,500 | 23 | 14.00 | 4.0x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Anthony Edwards | $9,300 | 41 | 66.50 | 7.2x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Donovan Mitchell | $8,500 | 38 | 49.75 | 5.9x | Solid |
| Value play | Terrence Shannon Jr. | $3,500 | 24 | 29.50 | 8.4x | Hit |
| Avoid | Myles Turner | $5,200 | 28 | 31.75 | 6.1x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Jaden McDaniels | $6,100 | 37 | 28.50 | 4.7x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 13 of 24 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 8 of 17 at or above the slate average, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 3 of 12 right, 5.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
Ajay Mitchell paid off at $4,600 with 42 DK points in 25 minutes, and Anthony Edwards gave us 66.5 in 41 minutes as the pivot. Tatum was the miss. He played 28 minutes, his low for the season, and tonight's spread brings the same worry.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN at BOS | 7:30 PM | BOS -12.5 | BKN +455 / BOS -625 | 222.5 | BKN 105.0 | BOS 117.5 |
| DET at NY | 8:00 PM | NY -4.5 | DET +142 / NY -170 | 219.5 | DET 107.5 | NY 112.0 |
| SAC at SA | 8:00 PM | SA -18.5 | SAC +950 / SA -1650 | 232.5 | SAC 107.0 | SA 125.5 |
| POR at LAL | 11:00 PM | LAL -1.5 | POR +105 / LAL -125 | 233.5 | POR 116.0 | LAL 117.5 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
San Antonio has the biggest team total on the board at 125.5, but with an 18.5 point spread you could see the starters sit in the fourth quarter.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jalen Duren (DET C) | Out, hamstring | 28.3 MIN, 22.6% USG, 17.8/10.1/2.0 | Paul Reed (C, $5,200): MIN 11.0 to 26.7, USG 21.6% to 20.7%; Javonte Green (G, $3,900): MIN 16.0 to 23.2, USG 14.5% to 15.4%; Daniss Jenkins (G, $4,800): MIN 19.9 to 25.6, USG 21.2% to 22.6% |
| 7 | Shaedon Sharpe (POR G) | Out, knee | 27.9 MIN, 30.2% USG, 19.5/4.0/2.4 | Vit Krejci (G, $3,000): MIN 8.4 to 18.9, USG 14.9% to 15.3%; Donovan Clingan (C, $6,300): MIN 26.7 to 26.7, USG 15.8% to 19.0%; Toumani Camara (F, $5,100): MIN 33.7 to 32.1, USG 15.9% to 16.8% |
| 7 | Tobias Harris (SA F) | Out, calf | 29.0 MIN, 19.8% USG, 14.1/5.5/2.3 | Victor Wembanyama (F, $10,800): 30.4 MIN, 31.5% USG on the season; Julian Champagnie (F, $4,700): 28.3 MIN, 14.8% USG on the season |
| 7 | Keegan Murray (SAC F) | Out, ankle | 34.0 MIN, 18.5% USG, 13.4/5.5/1.6 | Nique Clifford (G, $3,900): MIN 19.4 to 29.6, USG 16.0% to 18.2%; Daeqwon Plowden (G, $3,200): MIN 18.5 to 27.4, USG 12.8% to 16.3%; Precious Achiuwa (F, $5,000): MIN 22.3 to 26.5, USG 17.1% to 18.2% |
| 7 | Maxime Raynaud (SAC C) | Out, knee | 26.6 MIN, 18.2% USG, 12.5/7.5/1.4 | Domantas Sabonis (F, $9,400): MIN 26.5 to 34.6, USG 24.8% to 20.0%; Zach LaVine (G, $6,500): MIN 30.5 to 35.8, USG 24.1% to 25.3% |
| 6 | Ausar Thompson (DET G) | Questionable, ankle | 26.7 MIN, 16.5% USG, 9.6/6.1/3.2 | Daniss Jenkins (G, $4,800): MIN 19.6 to 29.3, USG 21.5% to 21.4%; Javonte Green (G, $3,900): MIN 16.0 to 25.2, USG 14.4% to 16.1% |
| 6 | Dylan Cardwell (SAC C) | Out, calf | 20.7 MIN, 11.2% USG, 5.4/7.5/1.4 | Domantas Sabonis (F, $9,400): MIN 26.7 to 33.8, USG 22.4% to 21.9%; Zach LaVine (G, $6,500): MIN 30.4 to 33.0, USG 25.1% to 24.1% |
Questionable: check before lock
- Ausar Thompson (DET): He was a full participant at shootaround, so lean toward him playing. If he sits, Daniss Jenkins jumps from a nice value to a cash lock and Javonte Green becomes a real punt at $3,900.
- Scoot Henderson (POR): He's questionable with a sore ankle. If he plays, he soaks up some bench guard minutes. If he sits, Lillard and Morant get even more of the ball.
- Isaiah Joe (DET): Also questionable. He only matters as a punt if Thompson sits too.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
POR at LAL: 233.5 total, LAL -1.5
Team totals: POR 116.0, LAL 117.5. Pace: POR 12th, LAL 21st, still mostly last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Shaedon Sharpe (Out, knee), Scoot Henderson (Questionable, ankle).
Expected starters: POR: Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan. LAL: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Walker Kessler.
The angle: This game has the biggest total and the closest spread on the slate. It's the cash game, and the starters should play their full minutes.
- Deni Avdija ($7,800): Against Sacramento he put up 26/6/6 in 38 minutes, then 18/10/4 in only 23 minutes against Phoenix. With Sharpe out, Portland loses 30.2% usage, and I expect Avdija to pick up the biggest share. Foul trouble is the risk, he carries one of the higher foul tiers on the slate. He's chalk and I'm fine with that. Cash lock.
- Damian Lillard ($6,600): Dame scored 19 in 33 minutes, then 25 with six threes in just 24 minutes. Without Sharpe, he and Morant run the offense. That 24 minute night against Phoenix shows how his minutes can dip, and Scoot Henderson would take a few guard minutes if he plays. I still like him in cash at this price.
- Ja Morant ($6,400): Morant posted 12/3/7 and 14/5/8 in 27 and 23 minutes. He should get about 28 minutes, and that caps his upside. I'd rather pay for Lillard in cash and use Morant in GPPs.
- Luka Doncic ($11,300): Sunday against Utah, Luka dropped 52/8/10 with eight threes. He gets the highest total and a close spread, and the field is lukewarm on him. I love him in tournaments.
- Austin Reaves ($7,900): Reaves has scored 29, 28 and 23 points in his three games, with nine assists against the Clippers. He should play about 35 minutes, and cash players are skipping him. Good GPP play.
- Walker Kessler ($7,300): Kessler had 22 points and six blocks against the Clippers, then 2 points and 7 boards in 28 minutes against Utah. He's in a high foul tier tonight, and foul trouble would sink him at $7,300. I'd pass.
- Ziaire Williams ($3,900): Cheap and starting: Williams has opened all three games and played 24, 31 and 30 minutes, scoring 9, 14 and 11. Neither team plays fast. Our NBA pace stats have Portland 12th and the Lakers 21st, but a 233.5 total lifts everyone. Fine punt.
Matchups to target: Deni Avdija, Damian Lillard, Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves
Matchups to avoid: Walker Kessler
DET at NY: 219.5 total, NY -4.5
Team totals: DET 107.5, NY 112.0. Pace: DET 19th, NY 27th, still mostly last season, a slow game.
Injury report: Jalen Duren (Out, hamstring), Ausar Thompson (Questionable, ankle), Isaiah Joe (Questionable), Jose Alvarado (Out, ankle).
Expected starters: DET: Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Paul Reed. NY: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
The angle: The lowest total on the slate, but the Duren injury makes this the second cash game, and a 4.5 point spread keeps everyone on the floor.
- Paul Reed ($5,200): Duren is out for about two weeks. In past games without Duren, Reed's minutes jumped from 11.0 to 26.7. He started Sunday and posted 8/8/2 with three blocks in 23 minutes, after 19/11/4 off the bench on Friday. He should play about 26 minutes, and you can track the swing on our NBA rotations and minutes tracker. The foul rate is the worry, he is in a high foul tier. He's the biggest chalk on the slate. Lock him in.
- Daniss Jenkins ($4,800): Sunday was his first start of the season, and he played 38 minutes for 18/8/6. Duren's absence and Thompson's ankle both push minutes his way. If Thompson plays, Jenkins loses some of that run. I love him at this price.
- Cade Cunningham ($9,700): Cade has put up 26/8/8, 16/2/8 and 22/4/8, and cash players are skipping him. The slow pace is the knock. He's my favorite pivot off Tatum at about the same salary.
- Jalen Brunson ($8,100): Brunson has scored 28, 19 and 21 in his three games. Alvarado is out, and Brunson's usage went from 30.8% to 36.5% without him, in a small sample. Solid in GPPs.
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300): Three games, three double doubles for Towns: 22/14, 22/10 and 19/12. Foul trouble is the risk here, his foul tier is high. Good, not great.
Matchups to target: Paul Reed, Daniss Jenkins, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson
Matchups to avoid: None
SAC at SA: 232.5 total, SA -18.5
Team totals: SAC 107.0, SA 125.5. Pace: SAC 17th, SA 16th, still mostly last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Tobias Harris (Out, calf), Keegan Murray (Out, ankle), Maxime Raynaud (Out, knee), Dylan Cardwell (Out, calf).
Expected starters: SAC: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De'Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis. SA: De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama.
The angle: This is the GPP game. San Antonio has the top team total on the slate, and the field is light on the two best players in it because of the blowout risk.
- Victor Wembanyama ($10,800): Wemby has gone 23/7 with four blocks, 25/13 and 12/13 with six blocks. Harris is out, and the Spurs carry a 125.5 team total. With an 18.5 point spread, he should play about 27 minutes. The field sees that and stays away. I want him in GPPs.
- Stephon Castle ($7,000): Castle has posted 19/4/8, 15/7/5 and 24/7/1. He's popular, he's in a high foul tier, and a blowout would sit him in the fourth quarter. I'd rather use him in GPPs than cash.
- Dylan Harper ($6,200): In his three games Harper scored 22, 20 and 18 while playing 28 to 36 minutes. The field likes him too. Solid at this price.
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,400): Sabonis has grabbed 15, 19 and 18 rebounds, with 27/19/10 against Portland. Raynaud and Cardwell are both out, and in past games without Raynaud, Sabonis played 34.6 minutes instead of 26.5. The 18.5 point spread and his high foul tier cut against him. I'd play him in GPPs only.
- Precious Achiuwa ($5,000): Achiuwa got the start Sunday and played 39 minutes for 12/10. He starts on the wrong side of an 18.5 point spread, and cash players will pile on him. I'd pass in cash.
- Keldon Johnson ($4,300): Off the bench, Johnson has played 20, 19 and 26 minutes for 10, 8 and 7 points. If this turns into a blowout, those bench minutes grow. GPP punt.
Matchups to target: Victor Wembanyama, Domantas Sabonis, Dylan Harper
Matchups to avoid: Precious Achiuwa
Game to fade: BKN at BOS. Boston is 30th in pace and on the second night of a back-to-back, and the 12.5 point spread brings blowout risk. I'll take Tatum in cash and pass on the rest of this game.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija (POR vs LAL) | Over 5.5 Assists | +114 | 7.0 | 48.2% | 43.8% | +4.4% |
| Domantas Sabonis (SAC vs SA) | Over 13.5 Rebounds | +100 | 15.4 | 50.4% | 46.8% | +3.7% |
| Ja Morant (POR vs LAL) | Over 5.5 Assists | -149 | 8.0 | 60.1% | 56.0% | +4.1% |
| Stephon Castle (SA vs SAC) | Over 6.5 Assists | -103 | 7.9 | 51.0% | 47.6% | +3.4% |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS vs BKN) | Over 8.5 Rebounds | -101 | 9.9 | 50.1% | 47.1% | +3.1% |
- Deni Avdija Over 5.5 assists: He had six and four assists in his two games, and Sharpe's absence puts the ball in his hands more often in a close game. I like it at plus money.
- Domantas Sabonis Over 13.5 rebounds: He's cleared this in all three games with 15, 19 and 18 boards, and the two backup centers are out. The blowout and foul risk are the only ways he misses. I like it.
- Ja Morant Over 5.5 assists: He's had seven and eight assists in his two games, and the sim has him around eight. The price is steep. Still a lean.
- Stephon Castle Over 6.5 assists: He had eight assists against Dallas, but five and one before that, and the blowout could cut his minutes. I trust this one least.
- Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds: He had nine against the Knicks, but seven and four in the other two games. The back-to-back and the spread worry me here, the same way they do in cash. Small lean.
Season record on these props: 16-18, -3.4 units at one unit each.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL vs POR | $11,300 | 36 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET at NY | $9,700 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs DET | $8,100 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Stephon Castle | SA vs SAC | $7,000 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Zach LaVine | SAC at SA | $6,500 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Paul George | BOS vs BKN | $6,700 | 28 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS vs BKN | $9,500 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Deni Avdija | POR at LAL | $7,800 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Michael Porter Jr. | BKN at BOS | $7,100 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs DET | $8,300 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Julius Randle | BKN at BOS | $7,200 | 34 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | John Collins | DET at NY | $5,800 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs SAC | $10,800 | 27 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 2 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at SA | $9,400 | 37 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Walker Kessler | LAL vs POR | $7,300 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL vs POR | $11,600 | 35 | Chalk | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET at NY | $9,900 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs DET | $8,000 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Austin Reaves | LAL vs POR | $8,100 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Zach LaVine | SAC at SA | $6,600 | 38 | Chalk | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Mikal Bridges | NY vs DET | $4,200 | 31 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS vs BKN | $10,000 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Deni Avdija | POR at LAL | $8,100 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Michael Porter | BKN at BOS | $7,400 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Julius Randle | BKN at BOS | $7,600 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | John Collins | DET at NY | $5,900 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Precious Achiuwa | SAC at SA | $5,400 | 26 | Chalk | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs SAC | $11,700 | 27 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at SA | $9,400 | 37 | Chalk | GPP |
| C | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs DET | $8,300 | 31 | Chalk | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The biggest gap between the sites is Wembanyama. He's chalk on FanDuel at $11,700 but only mid-owned on DraftKings, so the leverage play lives on DraftKings. Mikal Bridges at $4,200 is a top-three shooting guard on FanDuel and nowhere near that list on DraftKings at $5,000.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Paul Reed, Deni Avdija, Damian Lillard and Jayson Tatum. Injuries opened bigger roles for Reed and Avdija, and their prices haven't caught up. I trust Tatum least of the four. Boston plays the second night of a back-to-back as a 12.5 point favorite, and he played 28 minutes last night. The field will play him heavily in cash, so I'm keeping him, but you should know the risk. Daniss Jenkins at $4,800 and Ziaire Williams at $3,900 are the cheap plays that make it fit.
In GPPs, Victor Wembanyama is my favorite way off the chalk. Cade Cunningham and Luka Doncic are the other two pivots I'd build around, and Doncic gets you a piece of the late game.
Before lock, check Ausar Thompson's ankle, because his status sets Jenkins's minutes, and check Scoot Henderson for Portland. Portland at the Lakers tips at 11:00 PM ET, so that's your late swap window.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.