Nine games makes for a big NBA DFS night on DraftKings and FanDuel, with pivots at every price. Miami at Atlanta is the best environment on the board, a 241.5 total with a 1.5 point spread. The big injury story is Houston: Alperen Sengun is out with a back injury, and the ball goes to Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Ayo Dosunmu, DeAndre Jordan
- Best GPP pivot: Nikola Jokic ($12,000), low-owned against a Pelicans team he hung 35/15/10 on four days ago
- Best cheap play: Bobby Portis ($4,800), 21 to 27 bench minutes in the top total game with Simone Fontecchio out
- Check before lock: Andrew Nembhard (questionable), he runs Indiana with Tyrese Haliburton out, and Quenton Jackson ($3,900) is the punt if he sits
- Late swap: DEN at NO, tips 8:00 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Deni Avdija | $7,800 | 33 | 44.00 | 5.6x | Solid |
| Cash core | Paul Reed | $5,200 | 26 | 43.25 | 8.3x | Hit |
| Cash core | Damian Lillard | $6,600 | 31 | 34.25 | 5.2x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Luka Doncic | $11,300 | 37 | 64.75 | 5.7x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Victor Wembanyama | $10,800 | 27 | 60.00 | 5.6x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Cade Cunningham | $9,700 | 36 | 43.75 | 4.5x | Miss |
| Value play | Ziaire Williams | $3,900 | 29 | 24.00 | 6.2x | Solid |
| Value play | Daniss Jenkins | $4,800 | 24 | 17.75 | 3.7x | Miss |
| Avoid | Walker Kessler | $7,300 | 33 | 27.00 | 3.7x | Right call |
| Avoid | Precious Achiuwa | $5,000 | 14 | 5.25 | 1.1x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 16 of 27 at or above the slate average, 5.5x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 10 of 20 at or above the slate average, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 5 of 14 right, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
Paul Reed was the night: 43.25 DraftKings points in 26 minutes at $5,200. Daniss Jenkins was the miss, 17.75 points in 24 minutes, and that one is on me. Both avoids landed.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA at DET | 7:00 PM | DET -7.5 | CHA +235 / DET -290 | 213.5 | CHA 103.0 | DET 110.5 |
| MIA at ATL | 7:00 PM | ATL -1.5 | MIA +114 / ATL -135 | 241.5 | MIA 120.0 | ATL 121.5 |
| PHI at IND | 7:00 PM | PHI -5.5 | PHI -198 / IND +164 | 236.5 | PHI 121.0 | IND 115.5 |
| WSH at CLE | 7:00 PM | CLE -10.5 | WSH +310 / CLE -395 | 239.5 | WSH 114.5 | CLE 125.0 |
| ORL at TOR | 7:30 PM | TOR -4.5 | ORL +160 / TOR -192 | 224.5 | ORL 110.0 | TOR 114.5 |
| DEN at NO | 8:00 PM | DEN -4.5 | DEN -198 / NO +164 | 240.5 | DEN 122.5 | NO 118.0 |
| GS at MIN | 8:00 PM | MIN -3.5 | GS +142 / MIN -170 | 227.5 | GS 112.0 | MIN 115.5 |
| HOU at MIL | 8:00 PM | HOU -8.5 | HOU -340 / MIL +270 | 226.5 | HOU 117.5 | MIL 109.0 |
| NY at CHI | 8:00 PM | NY -7.5 | NY -278 / CHI +225 | 233.5 | NY 120.5 | CHI 113.0 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Three games sit at 239.5 or higher, but only two of them are close, and Cleveland's 125.0 comes with a 10.5 point spread that could end it early.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kawhi Leonard (TOR F) | Out, knee | 32.0 MIN, 33.6% USG, 27.5/6.4/3.5 | Scottie Barnes (F, $8,300): MIN 33.8, USG 24.0%; RJ Barrett (F, $7,100): MIN 31.1, USG 26.3% |
| 10 | Alperen Sengun (HOU C) | Out, back | 33.8 MIN, 26.9% USG, 20.6/9.0/6.1 | Jae'Sean Tate (F, $3,000): MIN 7.5 to 15.4, USG 13.6% to 15.9%; Clint Capela (C, $3,100): MIN 10.9 to 18.2, USG 13.4% to 15.2%; Kevin Durant (F, $7,500): MIN 36.6 to 35.3, USG 26.9% to 30.2% |
| 9 | Tyrese Haliburton (IND G) | Out, hamstring | 33.0 MIN, 24.5% USG, 21.8/4.5/9.5 | Andrew Nembhard (G, $5,800): MIN 31.4, USG 23.6%; Aaron Nesmith (G, $4,600): MIN 29.0, USG 20.1% |
| 9 | Anthony Edwards (MIN G) | Out, knee | 34.6 MIN, 31.8% USG, 28.1/5.0/3.6 | Bones Hyland (G, $3,300): MIN 14.0 to 21.0, USG 19.8% to 22.0%; Ayo Dosunmu (G, $5,200): MIN 27.3 to 33.6, USG 18.9% to 22.0%; Jaden McDaniels (F, $6,100): MIN 31.6 to 33.7, USG 18.1% to 21.9% |
| 9 | Paolo Banchero (ORL F) | Out, ankle | 35.0 MIN, 28.3% USG, 22.6/8.3/5.3 | Franz Wagner (F, $8,300): MIN 28.7 to 34.2, USG 26.5% to 27.2%; Goga Bitadze (C, $4,100): MIN 14.7 to 16.9, USG 13.2% to 13.6%; Desmond Bane (G, $6,800): MIN 33.6 to 35.5, USG 23.2% to 25.3% |
| 8 | Yaxel Lendeborg (GS F) | Questionable, foot | 33.3 MIN, 26.2% USG, 21.8/9.3/4.8 | Draymond Green (F, $5,400): MIN 27.7, USG 16.0%; Gui Santos (F, $5,600): MIN 21.0, USG 18.6% |
| 8 | Jalen Duren (DET C) | Out, hamstring | 28.3 MIN, 22.6% USG, 17.8/10.1/2.0 | Paul Reed (F, $5,900): MIN 11.0 to 26.6, USG 21.6% to 21.1%; Tolu Smith (F, $3,000): MIN 3.9 to 11.5, USG 25.8% to 14.9%; Javonte Green (G, $3,900): MIN 16.0 to 22.8, USG 14.5% to 15.4% |
| 8 | Kon Knueppel (CHA G) | Out, hamstring | 31.5 MIN, 22.4% USG, 18.3/5.3/3.3 | Sion James (G, $3,900): MIN 22.2 to 27.0, USG 11.2% to 8.6%; Tidjane Salaun (F, $3,200): MIN 15.1 to 19.3, USG 15.4% to 13.0%; Brandon Miller (F, $7,800): MIN 30.3 to 33.8, USG 28.1% to 34.4% |
Questionable: check before lock
- Andrew Nembhard (IND): He is questionable with a neck injury, and Tyrese Haliburton is out. If Nembhard plays, the Indiana offense is his at $5,800. If he sits too, Quenton Jackson ($3,900) becomes a real punt, with his minutes going from about 16 to about 22 without Nembhard.
- Anthony Black (ORL): He is questionable for personal reasons. If he sits, Tristan da Silva ($5,500) picks up minutes, about 22 to about 29 without Black.
- Yaxel Lendeborg (GS): He is questionable with a foot injury. If he sits, Draymond Green ($5,400) and Gui Santos ($5,600) pick up the frontcourt minutes.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
HOU at MIL: 226.5 total, HOU -8.5
Team totals: HOU 117.5, MIL 109.0. Pace: HOU 28th, MIL 17th, last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Alperen Sengun (Out, back), Steven Adams (Out, calf), Marcus Smart (Out, forearm).
Expected starters: HOU: Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason. MIL: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Ryan Rollins, Tyler Herro.
The angle: Sengun's absence pushes the Houston offense onto two players the whole field will play, and this is the cash game.
- Kevin Durant ($7,500): He went 22/9/3 in 30 minutes last game and played 37 in each of the two before that. Without Sengun his usage climbs from about 27% to about 30%. Man, that usage. He has also averaged about 35 minutes in the games he played on the NBA rotations and minutes tracker. He'll be one of the most popular plays on the slate, and I love him here.
- Amen Thompson ($7,000): He put up 17/11/6 in 39 minutes and 20/10/4 in 36 in two of his last three. He played 28 last game, and that's the worry. Smart is out too, so Houston has one fewer guard to take his minutes. The field will be all over him at this price. I'm still playing him in cash.
- Tari Eason ($4,600): He came off the bench for 33, 31 and 27 minutes over his last three, with 13/8 and three blocks last time out. He's in the expected starting five tonight. I like this spot a good bit.
- Clint Capela ($3,100): He has played 4, 11 and 8 minutes this season, so the floor is scary. Sengun and Adams are both out, and his minutes jump from about 11 to about 18 without Sengun. I'd keep him to GPP punt duty.
- Tyler Herro ($7,200): He has 34 points against Chicago and a 23/10/7 line against Indiana in his last three. Milwaukee's 109.0 team total is the second lowest on the slate. He's my pivot off the Houston chalk at the same price.
- Myles Turner ($5,100): He scored 0 points in 20 minutes against Philadelphia and carries real foul trouble risk tonight. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason
Matchups to avoid: Myles Turner
MIA at ATL: 241.5 total, ATL -1.5
Team totals: MIA 120.0, ATL 121.5. Pace: MIA 2nd, ATL 3rd, last season, an up-in-pace game.
Injury report: Simone Fontecchio (Out, illness), Aaron Wiggins (Questionable, knee).
Expected starters: MIA: Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Klay Thompson. ATL: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu.
The angle: It's the top total and a near pick'em between two of the fastest teams in our NBA pace stats, and the stars aren't chalk, so this is my GPP game.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200): He went 29/14/11 in 39 minutes last game and 36/12/5 against Detroit on Friday. This game should be a track meet, and he is not one of the most popular plays at his price. Foul trouble is the risk here. I love him in GPPs.
- Jalen Johnson ($9,500): He had 26/9/16 in 38 minutes on Saturday, then 21/9/4 in 36. Usage should funnel through him in a close game with this pace. I like him a lot.
- CJ McCollum ($5,300): He scored 20 with four threes in 30 minutes last game and has scored at least 13 in every game. He'll be popular. He's solid.
- Bobby Portis ($4,800): He has played 21 to 27 minutes off the bench in every game, with 10/12 last time out. With Fontecchio out, Miami has one fewer forward in the rotation. I like him as the salary relief in this game.
- Bam Adebayo ($7,800): He has 4 and 8 points in two of his last three, and Portis and Giannis share the paint with him. The field will mostly skip him. GPP only.
Matchups to target: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Johnson, Bobby Portis
Matchups to avoid: None
DEN at NO: 240.5 total, DEN -4.5
Team totals: DEN 122.5, NO 118.0. Pace: DEN 26th, NO 11th, last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Cameron Johnson (Doubtful, ankle), Spencer Jones (Out, hamstring), Yves Missi (Out, knee).
Expected starters: DEN: Aaron Gordon, Bryce Hopkins, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic. NO: DeAndre Jordan, Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.
The angle: These two met four days ago and Denver lit New Orleans up, yet the Nuggets stars are low-owned, so this is the GPP game.
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000): He went 35/15/10 in 44 minutes against this same Pelicans team on Saturday. The field is skipping him at this price, and that's the GPP edge. He does carry some foul risk. I love him here.
- Jamal Murray ($8,500): He scored 42 with eight threes against New Orleans on Saturday, then 19/6/8 last game. With Cameron Johnson doubtful, his usage goes from about 27% to about 31% without Johnson. He's a strong GPP play.
- DeAndre Jordan ($3,200): Missi is out, and Jordan's minutes go from about 15 to about 22 without him. He went 9/9 in 20 minutes against Denver on Saturday. He'll be chalk, and at this price that's fine in cash. I'm locking him in.
- Trevon Brazile ($4,700): He had 17/9 in 28 minutes against New Orleans on Saturday. Cameron Johnson is doubtful and Spencer Jones is out, so the forward minutes are open. I like him as a cheap GPP piece.
- Zion Williamson ($7,500): He scored 22, 23 and 17 in his three games, all in about 33 minutes. The field will barely touch him, so he's leverage if you want a piece of the Pelicans side.
Matchups to target: Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, Trevon Brazile
Matchups to avoid: None
Game to fade: CHA at DET. It has the lowest total on the slate at 213.5 and the slowest pace projection, and Detroit plays the second night of a back-to-back. A 7.5 point spread on top of that leaves very little upside for anybody here.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner (ORL vs TOR) | Under 5.5 Assists | +116 | 3.8 | 56.1% | 43.3% | +12.8% |
| Tristan da Silva (ORL vs TOR) | Under 2.5 Three Pm | -133 | 1.5 | 62.3% | 53.4% | +8.9% |
| Ayo Dosunmu (MIN vs GS) | Under 4.5 Rebounds | -133 | 3.4 | 60.5% | 53.4% | +7.1% |
| LaMelo Ball (MIN vs GS) | Under 4.5 Rebounds | +114 | 4.2 | 49.3% | 43.8% | +5.5% |
| Immanuel Quickley (TOR vs ORL) | Under 5.5 Assists | +104 | 4.9 | 51.4% | 45.9% | +5.5% |
- Franz Wagner Under 5.5 assists: He had 5, 5 and 9 assists in his three games, so the line is built off that last one. He should play about 37 minutes, and I tag him Cash on DraftKings below, so this bet only fades the assist count. I like the plus money.
- Tristan da Silva Under 2.5 threes: He made 5, 1 and 4 threes in his three games, so two of three went over. If Anthony Black sits, he picks up minutes. This one runs against his recent form, so I'd keep it small.
- Ayo Dosunmu Under 4.5 rebounds: He had 1, 3, 7 and 5 rebounds in four games. He's in my cash core for the minutes, and the DFS case rests on his scoring and the extra usage, so the two fit together. I'm fine with it.
- LaMelo Ball Under 4.5 rebounds: He had 0, 1, 5 and 2 rebounds in four games. That's three of four under. I like it.
- Immanuel Quickley Under 5.5 assists: He had 2, 6 and 7 assists in three games, and Kawhi Leonard's absence could put the ball in his hands more. The edge is thin. Small bet at most.
Season record on these props: 18-21, -4.2 units at one unit each.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET vs CHA | $9,900 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| PG | 2 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs GS | $7,700 | 30 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Jamal Murray | DEN at NO | $8,500 | 37 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs WSH | $8,600 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs ORL | $7,100 | 32 | Mid | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Tyler Herro | MIL vs HOU | $7,200 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Franz Wagner | ORL at TOR | $8,300 | 37 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Scottie Barnes | TOR vs ORL | $8,300 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Kevin Durant | HOU at MIL | $7,500 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at ATL | $10,200 | 32 | Mid | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs MIA | $9,500 | 33 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY at CHI | $8,500 | 31 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at NO | $12,000 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Joel Embiid | PHI at IND | $8,400 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Bam Adebayo | MIA at ATL | $7,800 | 29 | Low | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL at LAC | $11,700 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC at DAL | $10,000 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Cade Cunningham | DET vs CHA | $9,800 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs WSH | $8,600 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Austin Reaves | LAL at LAC | $8,100 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 3 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs ORL | $6,500 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs OKC | $9,700 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Franz Wagner | ORL at TOR | $8,000 | 37 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Kevin Durant | HOU at MIL | $8,000 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA at ATL | $11,500 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs MIA | $9,400 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Scottie Barnes | TOR vs ORL | $8,800 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN at NO | $12,000 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 2 | Victor Wembanyama | SA at UTAH | $11,400 | 27 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Joel Embiid | PHI at IND | $8,500 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The FanDuel slate runs bigger and includes the late West games, so Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama show up there. Jokic is the same $12,000 on both sites but should be far more popular on FanDuel, so the leverage on him lives on DraftKings. RJ Barrett is a better price on FanDuel at $6,500, and Giannis is cheaper on DraftKings at $10,200.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Ayo Dosunmu and DeAndre Jordan. Durant and Amen get the Sengun usage, Ayo gets about six extra minutes with Anthony Edwards out, and Jordan starts at $3,200 with Missi out. Amen played only 28 minutes last game and Ayo has come off the bench all season, so those are the two minutes risks I'm accepting. Bobby Portis and Clint Capela are the cheap plays if you need more salary relief, with Capela as the riskier one.
In GPPs, Nikola Jokic is the big swing. He crushed this Pelicans team four days ago and the field is not on him. Tyler Herro is my pivot off the Houston chalk at the same price, and Giannis in the fastest game on the board makes sense in any build that skips Jokic.
Before lock, check Andrew Nembhard in Indiana now that Tyrese Haliburton is out, plus Yaxel Lendeborg in Golden State and Anthony Black in Orlando. Four games tip at 8:00 PM ET, including Denver at New Orleans and Houston at Milwaukee, so keep a late swap ready.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.