Thursday's NBA DFS main slate is three games, so on DraftKings and FanDuel the field piles onto the same handful of value plays. Cleveland at Atlanta is the fastest, closest game on the board. Sacramento is still missing three frontcourt players, which hands Domantas Sabonis the paint and makes Kings at Pelicans the game the field is underplaying.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Deni Avdija, Ja Morant, Darius Acuff Jr., Peyton Watson
- Best GPP pivot: Donovan Mitchell ($8,600), a lightly played star in the fastest game on the slate
- Best cheap play: Jaylen Wells ($4,700), a starter who played 30 and 33 minutes in his last two games
- Check before lock: Jordan Poole (doubtful, ankle), Saddiq Bey picks up minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Memphis at Portland, tips 10:00 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Ayo Dosunmu | $5,200 | 32 | 36.25 | 7.0x | Hit |
| Cash core | Kevin Durant | $7,500 | 31 | 35.75 | 4.8x | Miss |
| Cash core | Amen Thompson | $7,000 | 33 | 34.00 | 4.9x | Miss |
| Cash core | DeAndre Jordan | $3,200 | 13 | 9.50 | 3.0x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,200 | 31 | 55.50 | 5.4x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Nikola Jokic | $12,000 | 34 | 55.25 | 4.6x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Tyler Herro | $7,200 | 27 | 29.75 | 4.1x | Miss |
| Value play | Bobby Portis | $4,800 | 23 | 34.25 | 7.1x | Hit |
| Value play | Clint Capela | $3,100 | 22 | 32.00 | 10.3x | Hit |
| Value play | Tari Eason | $4,600 | 31 | 24.75 | 5.4x | Solid |
| Avoid | Myles Turner | $5,100 | 22 | 14.50 | 2.8x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 17 of 31 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 11 of 23 at or above the slate average, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Value plays: 6 of 8 at or above the slate average, 6.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 6 of 15 right, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
Clint Capela was the night's best call, 32 DK points on a $3,100 salary in 22 minutes. DeAndre Jordan was the one that hurt. He played 13 minutes and gave us 9.5 points. That was a minutes miss, and he's expected to start again tonight, so I'm not going back to him.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at ATL | 8:00 PM | ATL -1.5 | CLE -105 / ATL -115 | 237.5 | CLE 118.0 | ATL 119.5 |
| SAC at NO | 8:00 PM | NO -5.5 | SAC +195 / NO -238 | 235.5 | SAC 115.0 | NO 120.5 |
| MEM at POR | 10:00 PM | POR -7.5 | MEM +235 / POR -290 | 233.5 | MEM 113.0 | POR 120.5 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Atlanta is the only game with a green total and a green spread, and a game that tight keeps the starters on the floor late.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shaedon Sharpe (POR G) | Out, knee | 27.9 MIN, 30.2% USG, 19.5/4.0/2.4 | Vit Krejci (G, $3,000): MIN 8.4 to 18.3, USG 14.9% to 15.4%; Toumani Camara (F, $5,200): MIN 33.7 to 31.9, USG 15.9% to 16.7% |
| 7 | Keegan Murray (SAC F) | Out, ankle | 34.0 MIN, 18.5% USG, 13.4/5.5/1.6 | Nique Clifford (G, $3,500): MIN 19.4 to 29.0, USG 16.0% to 18.3%; Daeqwon Plowden (G, $3,700): MIN 18.5 to 27.0, USG 12.8% to 16.1%; Precious Achiuwa (F, $5,800): MIN 22.3 to 26.3, USG 17.1% to 18.2% |
| 7 | Maxime Raynaud (SAC C) | Out, knee | 26.6 MIN, 18.2% USG, 12.5/7.5/1.4 | Domantas Sabonis (F, $9,200): MIN 26.5 to 34.8, USG 24.8% to 20.1% |
| 6 | Dylan Cardwell (SAC C) | Out, calf | 20.7 MIN, 11.2% USG, 5.4/7.5/1.4 | Domantas Sabonis (F, $9,200): MIN 26.7 to 34.1, USG 22.4% to 21.8% |
| 6 | Jordan Poole (NO G) | Doubtful, ankle | 23.2 MIN, 24.6% USG, 12.7/2.0/3.0 | Herbert Jones (F, $4,500): MIN 26.2 to 28.8, USG 15.2% to 15.2%; Bryce McGowens (G, $3,000): MIN 19.3 to 21.9, USG 13.6% to 14.4%; Saddiq Bey (G, $5,400): MIN 29.5 to 32.0, USG 21.5% to 22.1% |
Questionable: check before lock
- Jordan Poole (NO): He left last night's game with an ankle injury after seven minutes, and he's now listed doubtful. If he sits, Saddiq Bey ($5,400) has played 32.0 minutes a night without him against 29.5 with him, and Bey is cheap enough to matter.
- Jaylon Tyson (CLE): He's questionable with a neck injury after playing 20 to 24 minutes off the bench in all four of his games. If he sits, Sam Merrill ($4,200) has played 27.9 minutes a night without him against 24.1 with him. Merrill is the cheap name to look at.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Cleveland at Atlanta: 237.5 total, ATL -1.5
Team totals: CLE 118.0, ATL 119.5. Pace: CLE 9th, ATL 3rd (early ratings that still lean on last season), an up-in-pace game.
Injury report: Jaylon Tyson (questionable, neck).
Expected starters: CLE: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. ATL: CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.
The angle: It has the biggest total and the fastest pace on the slate, and the spread is only 1.5. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so I treat it as a GPP game with one cash piece.
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,600): He hasn't had a bad night yet. He opened with 32/10/3 against Philadelphia, went for 26/5/7 in 38 minutes against Minnesota and put up 19/5/7 last night. Atlanta plays at the third-fastest pace in the league by our NBA pace stats, and a game this close should keep him out there through the fourth. The field is lighter on him than on anyone near his price. I love him in tournaments.
- Peyton Watson ($5,500): He scored 22 last night in 28 minutes and had a 15/8 game with three steals and four blocks in 37 minutes against Minnesota. That 37 is the risk, because his minutes have swung from 28 to 37 and back, and this is the second night of a back-to-back. He's the chalk wing in cash, and at this price I'm taking that risk. He's in my core.
- Jalen Johnson ($9,500): He went 26/9/16 against Houston and 12/9/11 last night, and he's played 36 or more minutes in three straight. The usage runs through him in the fastest game we have. His price keeps him out of most cash builds, which is fine. I like him a lot in GPPs.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,700): He scored 23 with five threes in 32 minutes last night and dropped 31 on Orlando on opening night. He's started every game and sits right around 30 minutes, which you can check on our NBA rotations and minutes tracker. Few people are on him. He's a good tournament play.
- Evan Mobley ($7,900): 24/12 with five threes last night, 18/10 in 38 minutes against Minnesota. The floor is safe and the ceiling is there in a game this fast. He's solid in both formats.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($5,600): His lines have been thin, 11/4/4 in 31 minutes last night and 8/6/2 in 26 before that. Cleveland gets to the free throw line a lot, and he carries the highest foul trouble risk among the Atlanta starters. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Matchups to avoid: Onyeka Okongwu
Memphis at Portland: 233.5 total, POR -7.5
Team totals: MEM 113.0, POR 120.5. Pace: MEM 15th, POR 11th (early ratings that still lean on last season), a neutral game.
Injury report: Shaedon Sharpe (Out, knee).
Expected starters: MEM: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey. POR: Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan.
The angle: Portland has the joint-highest team total on the slate, and Sharpe's 30% usage is off the floor. This is the cash game, and the field knows it.
- Deni Avdija ($7,800): He went 23/4/9 in 33 minutes against the Lakers and 26/6/6 in 38 against Sacramento. With Sharpe out for months, the Blazers run their offense through him and Morant. The one worry is a blowout: on opening night he played only 23 minutes and finished plus-25 in a lopsided game, and Portland is a 7.5-point favorite. He's chalk and he's in my core anyway.
- Ja Morant ($6,400): 23 points against the Lakers, 12/3/7 against the Kings and 14/5/8 in 23 minutes against Phoenix. $6,400 is a low price for a lead guard on one of the two best team totals. He's the most popular player on the slate and I'm right there with the field. Lock him in for cash.
- Ty Jerome ($8,300): Man, that start. He scored 45 on opening night, then 28 and 31, then had 15 and 8 assists against Utah, all in 30 to 32 minutes. Memphis is the 7.5-point underdog, which is the counterweight, but trailing teams keep their best scorer shooting. I like him a good bit as a GPP play.
- Jaylen Wells ($4,700): He's started every game and played 30 and 33 minutes in his last two, with 16/5/3 against Sacramento. Nobody is playing him. He's my favorite cheap play on the slate.
- Jrue Holiday ($5,100): He's come off the bench all three games but still played 30 minutes against the Lakers and scored 22. The field loves him in cash. He's solid, but a bench role at that price isn't something I need in a core.
- Zach Edey ($5,900): He's at 21 or 22 minutes every night with 4, 8 and 6 points. He has a high foul trouble tier, and that's the risk that cuts a big man's minutes short. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Deni Avdija, Ja Morant, Ty Jerome, Jaylen Wells
Matchups to avoid: Zach Edey
Sacramento at New Orleans: 235.5 total, NO -5.5
Team totals: SAC 115.0, NO 120.5. Pace: SAC 17th, NO 10th (early ratings that still lean on last season), a neutral game.
Injury report: Keegan Murray (Out, ankle), Maxime Raynaud (Out, knee), Dylan Cardwell (Out, calf), Yves Missi (Out, knee), Jordan Poole (doubtful, ankle).
Expected starters: SAC: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De'Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis. NO: Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan.
The angle: New Orleans has a 120.5 team total and the field is mostly elsewhere. This is the GPP game.
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,200): With Raynaud and Cardwell out, his minutes have jumped from about 27 to about 35, and the box scores show it: 27/19/10 against Portland, 20/14/8 against San Antonio. He has a high foul trouble tier, and that's the only way this goes wrong. He sits a tier below chalk, and I love him in GPPs.
- Darius Acuff Jr. ($7,100): He's played 33, 36 and 37 minutes in his last three, with 33 points against Portland and 22/3/7 against Memphis. You build cash lineups on minutes like that at $7,100. He also has a high foul trouble tier, so watch his early fouls. He's in my core.
- Zion Williamson ($7,500): He put up 25/5 with three steals in 32 minutes last night and 23/5 against Utah. With Missi out, he's played about 32 minutes a game, up from about 30. The Pelicans are on a back-to-back, and the field is barely touching him. I love him as the pivot off Avdija.
- Derik Queen ($6,300): He comes off the bench, but 11/12 in 25 minutes last night is starter production, and his minutes go from 24 to almost 29 a night without Missi. Hardly anyone is on him. He's a nice tournament piece.
- Zach LaVine ($6,600): 37 points in 40 minutes against Memphis, 22 against the Spurs. The scoring is real, but Sacramento has been outscored by a wide margin with him on the floor. He's a fine cash play, and I just like the four in my core more.
- De'Andre Hunter ($6,000): He's been at about 27 minutes as a starter. He has a high foul trouble tier, and the Pelicans draw a lot of free throws. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Domantas Sabonis, Darius Acuff Jr., Zion Williamson, Derik Queen
Matchups to avoid: De'Andre Hunter
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard (POR vs MEM) | Over 4.5 Assists | +101 | 5.9 | 52.9% | 46.6% | +6.3% |
| Jeremiah Fears (NO vs SAC) | Over 2.5 Assists | -116 | 3.8 | 56.8% | 50.2% | +6.6% |
| Jrue Holiday (POR vs MEM) | Over 3.5 Assists | -138 | 5.4 | 60.9% | 54.3% | +6.6% |
| Ja Morant (POR vs MEM) | Over 6.5 Assists | +109 | 7.7 | 49.8% | 44.8% | +5.0% |
| Darius Acuff Jr. (SAC vs NO) | Under 2.5 Three Pm | -120 | 1.9 | 56.6% | 51.0% | +5.6% |
- Damian Lillard Over 4.5 assists: He had 6 assists in only 24 minutes on opening night, and he's played 31 and 33 minutes since. Plus money with the sim at 5.9 is a fair price. I like it.
- Jeremiah Fears Over 2.5 assists: He's cleared this only once in four games, with 3, 2, 1 and 1. The sim likes it more than his box scores do. It's a small lean, nothing more.
- Jrue Holiday Over 3.5 assists: He had 8 assists against Sacramento in 26 minutes, and the sim has him at 5.4. The price at -138 is steep. It's a lean.
- Ja Morant Over 6.5 assists: He has 7 and 8 in two of his three games. At plus money with the sim at 7.7, I'm on it, and it fits the cash call on him above.
- Darius Acuff Jr. Under 2.5 threes: He's made 3, 2, 2 and 0 in four games, so the under has hit in three of four. That doesn't clash with him in my cash core, because his DFS value comes from 35-plus minutes, not threes. I like it.
Season record on these props: 21-23, -3.2 units at one unit each.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Ty Jerome | MEM at POR | $8,300 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Darius Acuff Jr. | SAC at NO | $7,100 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Dejounte Murray | NO vs SAC | $7,700 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at ATL | $8,600 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Zach LaVine | SAC at NO | $6,600 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO vs SAC | $7,300 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Peyton Watson | CLE at ATL | $5,500 | 29 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Toumani Camara | POR vs MEM | $5,200 | 28 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 3 | De'Andre Hunter | SAC at NO | $6,000 | 27 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs CLE | $9,500 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Deni Avdija | POR vs MEM | $7,800 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Evan Mobley | CLE at ATL | $7,900 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 1 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at NO | $9,200 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Donovan Clingan | POR vs MEM | $6,100 | 24 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Jarrett Allen | CLE at ATL | $6,000 | 25 | Chalk | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Ty Jerome | MEM at POR | $8,500 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Dejounte Murray | NO vs SAC | $8,100 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Darius Acuff | SAC at NO | $6,500 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at ATL | $8,600 | 34 | Chalk | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Zach LaVine | SAC at NO | $6,300 | 33 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Trey Murphy | NO vs SAC | $7,200 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Deni Avdija | POR vs MEM | $8,200 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Peyton Watson | CLE at ATL | $5,600 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Toumani Camara | POR vs MEM | $4,500 | 28 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL vs CLE | $9,800 | 33 | Chalk | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Evan Mobley | CLE at ATL | $8,000 | 32 | Chalk | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Cameron Boozer | MEM at POR | $7,300 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at NO | $9,200 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Donovan Clingan | POR vs MEM | $6,100 | 24 | Chalk | GPP |
| C | 3 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL vs CLE | $5,700 | 27 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
Toumani Camara is $5,200 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel, so he's an easier click on FanDuel. Acuff is also $600 cheaper on FanDuel. Sabonis grades as a cash play on FanDuel and a GPP play on DraftKings, so I'd lean on him more in FanDuel cash.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Deni Avdija, Ja Morant, Darius Acuff Jr. and Peyton Watson. All four are chalk, and on three games that's where the minutes are. Two risks to know: Avdija could sit late if Portland runs away with it, and Watson is on a back-to-back with minutes that have bounced around.
For GPPs, Donovan Mitchell is the pivot off the expensive chalk, and Zion Williamson at $7,500 gets you off Avdija for a similar price. Sabonis and Queen give you a lighter way into the Kings and Pelicans game, and Jaylen Wells at $4,700 is the cheap starter the field is ignoring.
Before lock, check Jordan Poole and Jaylon Tyson, and remember both early games tip at 8:00 PM ET with three teams on back-to-backs. Memphis at Portland tips at 10:00 PM ET, so leave a late swap spot there in case Avdija or Morant news drops.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.