Eight games on Friday's NBA DFS slate means a few real pivots, but the cheap chalk on DraftKings and FanDuel still bunches up behind a handful of injuries. Indiana at Miami has the biggest total on the board and the fastest projected pace. The injury story runs through Toronto and Orlando, with Kawhi Leonard, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs all out for that game.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Paul Reed, Ayo Dosunmu, Brandon Miller, RJ Barrett, Bobby Portis
- Best GPP pivot: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500), the top projection on the slate but only mid-owned in the top-total game
- Best cheap play: Pelle Larsson ($4,500), about 31 minutes a night off the Miami bench
- Check before lock: Alperen Sengun (questionable, back), Clint Capela gets the center minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Indiana at Miami, tips 8:00 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Darius Acuff Jr. | $7,100 | 41 | 64.50 | 9.1x | Hit |
| Cash core | Deni Avdija | $7,800 | 32 | 47.75 | 6.1x | Solid |
| Cash core | Ja Morant | $6,400 | 23 | 21.50 | 3.4x | Miss |
| Cash core | Peyton Watson | $5,500 | 22 | 16.50 | 3.0x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Zion Williamson | $7,500 | 31 | 43.00 | 5.7x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Donovan Mitchell | $8,600 | 33 | 32.75 | 3.8x | Miss |
| Value play | Jaylen Wells | $4,700 | 25 | 12.25 | 2.6x | Miss |
| Avoid | Onyeka Okongwu | $5,600 | 33 | 54.00 | 9.6x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | De'Andre Hunter | $6,000 | 37 | 32.25 | 5.4x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Zach Edey | $5,900 | 19 | 22.25 | 3.8x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 19 of 35 at or above the slate average, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 12 of 25 at or above the slate average, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 7 of 18 right, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
Darius Acuff Jr. carried the night with 64.5 DraftKings points in 41 minutes. The misses were minutes misses: Ja Morant played 23 and Peyton Watson 22, and I got the Okongwu avoid wrong: he scored 54 points.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA at WSH | 7:00 PM | CHA -1.5 | CHA -112 / WSH -108 | 218.5 | CHA 110.0 | WSH 108.5 |
| CHI at BOS | 7:30 PM | BOS -14.5 | CHI +600 / BOS -900 | 235.5 | CHI 110.5 | BOS 125.0 |
| DET at BKN | 7:30 PM | DET -8.5 | DET -325 / BKN +260 | 222.5 | DET 115.5 | BKN 107.0 |
| NY at PHI | 7:30 PM | NY -1.5 | NY -125 / PHI +105 | 226.5 | NY 114.0 | PHI 112.5 |
| ORL at TOR | 7:30 PM | TOR -5.5 | ORL +180 / TOR -218 | 227.5 | ORL 111.0 | TOR 116.5 |
| HOU at DAL | 8:00 PM | HOU -6.5 | HOU -238 / DAL +195 | 224.5 | HOU 115.5 | DAL 109.0 |
| IND at MIA | 8:00 PM | MIA -8.5 | IND +260 / MIA -325 | 237.5 | IND 114.5 | MIA 123.0 |
| LAC at MIN | 8:00 PM | MIN -6.5 | LAC +225 / MIN -278 | 223.5 | LAC 108.5 | MIN 115.0 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Boston at 125 and Miami at 123 are the two big team totals, and Boston's comes with a 14.5 point spread that puts the fourth quarter in doubt.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tyrese Haliburton (IND G) | Out, hamstring | 33.0 MIN, 24.5% USG, 21.8/4.5/9.5 | Andrew Nembhard (G, $6,800): 31.4 MIN, 23.7% USG; Aaron Nesmith (G, $4,700): 29.0 MIN, 20.3% USG |
| 10 | Kawhi Leonard (TOR F) | Out, knee | 32.0 MIN, 33.6% USG, 27.5/6.4/3.5 | Scottie Barnes (F, $8,400): 33.8 MIN, 24.1% USG; RJ Barrett (F, $7,000): 31.2 MIN, 26.3% USG |
| 9 | Alperen Sengun (HOU C) | Questionable, back | 33.8 MIN, 26.9% USG, 20.6/9.0/6.1 | Clint Capela (C, $4,100): MIN 10.9 to 18.5, USG 13.4% to 15.3%; Jae'Sean Tate (F, $3,000): MIN 7.5 to 13.5, USG 13.6% to 15.1%; Isaiah Crawford (F, $3,000): MIN 5.4 to 7.7, USG 12.7% to 16.7% |
| 9 | Anthony Edwards (MIN G) | Out, knee | 34.6 MIN, 31.8% USG, 28.1/5.0/3.6 | Bones Hyland (G, $3,500): MIN 14.0 to 20.8, USG 19.8% to 22.1%; Ayo Dosunmu (G, $5,600): MIN 27.3 to 33.4, USG 18.9% to 21.4%; Jaden McDaniels (F, $6,200): MIN 31.6 to 33.7, USG 18.1% to 22.1% |
| 9 | Paolo Banchero (ORL F) | Out, ankle | 35.0 MIN, 28.3% USG, 22.6/8.3/5.3 | Franz Wagner (F, $8,000): MIN 28.7 to 34.2, USG 26.5% to 27.1%; Tristan da Silva (F, $5,200): MIN 23.5 to 27.1, USG 16.1% to 17.0%; Desmond Bane (G, $6,800): MIN 33.6 to 35.3, USG 23.2% to 24.9% |
| 8 | Jaylen Brown (PHI G) | Questionable, knee | 36.4 MIN, 25.3% USG, 20.6/6.6/4.2 | Tyrese Maxey (G, $8,400): 38.3 MIN, 29.5% USG; VJ Edgecombe (G, $5,900): 35.2 MIN, 20.0% USG |
| 8 | Jalen Duren (DET C) | Out, hamstring | 28.3 MIN, 22.6% USG, 17.8/10.1/2.0 | Paul Reed (F, $6,300): MIN 11.0 to 27.4, USG 21.6% to 20.6%; Javonte Green (G, $3,800): MIN 16.0 to 22.7, USG 14.5% to 15.3%; Tolu Smith (F, $3,000): MIN 3.9 to 10.5, USG 25.8% to 15.2% |
| 8 | Brandon Ingram (LAC F) | Out, Achilles | 33.5 MIN, 26.9% USG, 20.9/5.4/3.6 | Rui Hachimura (F, $6,000): 31.3 MIN, 22.3% USG; Derrick Jones Jr. (F, $5,000): 27.1 MIN, 15.2% USG |
Questionable: check before lock
- Alperen Sengun (back): If he plays, he's the Houston offense and a fine GPP piece at $8,200. If he sits, Clint Capela jumps from about 11 to about 18 minutes.
- Jaylen Brown (knee): If he sits, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe take on more of the Philly offense, and Edgecombe at $5,900 becomes a real value. If he plays, I leave this game to the field.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
ORL at TOR: 227.5 total, TOR -5.5
Team totals: ORL 111.0, TOR 116.5. Pace: ORL 6th, TOR 12th, blended with last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Kawhi Leonard (out, knee), Paolo Banchero (out, ankle), Jalen Suggs (out, knee).
Expected starters: ORL: Jase Richardson, Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. TOR: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Ja'Kobe Walter, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.
The angle: Three missing starters and a spread inside six make this the cash game, with safe minutes for the guys left standing.
- RJ Barrett ($7,000): He has played 32, 32 and 34 minutes in his last three, and these two teams just met on 10/28, when he put up 25/9/6 in 32 minutes. With Leonard out, a lot of Toronto's offense runs through him and Barnes. His minutes have been steady all season, which you can see on the NBA rotations and minutes tracker. He's in my cash core.
- Scottie Barnes ($8,400): Barnes dropped 28/6/4 with three steals and two blocks in 31 minutes against this same Orlando team two nights ago. The scare is the 10/25 game in Minnesota, where he went scoreless in 28 minutes. Leonard's 33.6% usage has to go somewhere, and the field has caught on: he's a popular play now. I like him in every format.
- Franz Wagner ($8,000): Without Banchero, his minutes have gone from 28.7 to 34.2 a night, and he should play about 36 tonight. He put up 23/13/9 in 37 minutes against the Knicks on 10/25. He's in the high foul tier, which is the risk. At his level of popularity, I love him as a GPP pivot.
- Ja'Kobe Walter ($4,800): He moved into the starting five two games ago and put up 22 points with five threes in 31 minutes, then 14 in 28 minutes against Orlando. Foul trouble is the worry with him too. At this price he's a solid value.
- Anthony Black ($5,900): With Suggs out, his minutes have gone from 27.6 to 33.2 a night. He had 8 points and one assist in 22 minutes against Toronto on 10/28, so the floor is thin. He's a GPP dart only.
- Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,000): He had 3 points and 10 boards in 26 minutes against Toronto on 10/28, and he's in the high foul tier against a team that gets to the line a lot. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Franz Wagner, Ja'Kobe Walter
Matchups to avoid: Wendell Carter Jr.
IND at MIA: 237.5 total, MIA -8.5
Team totals: IND 114.5, MIA 123.0. Pace: IND 7th, MIA 2nd, blended with last season, an up-in-pace game.
Injury report: Tyrese Haliburton (out, hamstring), Ivica Zubac (out, ankle), Ben Sheppard (out, knee), Andrew Nembhard (probable, neck).
Expected starters: IND: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Kelly Oubre Jr., Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff. MIA: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo.
The angle: The slate's top total and fastest projected game. The field is loading up on the cheap pieces here, with Bobby Portis the most popular play on the slate, but it's light on the stars, which makes Giannis the GPP angle.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500): He has gone for 29/14/11 in 39 minutes against Dallas and 24/18/3 in 31 minutes against Atlanta in his last two games. He's the top projection on the slate, yet he sits about 20th in projected ownership. The NBA pace stats put this game well above the league average, and that's how he gets to his ceiling. The 8.5 point spread is the one worry. He's my top GPP pivot.
- Pascal Siakam ($8,000): With Haliburton out, he put up 26/11 in 34 minutes against Philly and 20/13/6 in 37 minutes against Milwaukee. Indiana needs his creation more than ever right now. I like him a good bit.
- Andrew Nembhard ($6,800): He's listed probable with a neck issue. In the first game without Haliburton he had 18 points and 14 assists in 35 minutes. The ball is in his hands now, and he's one of the most popular cash plays on the slate. He's a fine cash piece.
- Bobby Portis ($4,600): He has come off the bench for 21 to 27 minutes in all five games, with lines like 10/12 with three threes against Dallas and 11/9/4 against Atlanta. A fast game gives him more rebound chances. He's the best value on the slate and the most popular cash play, so I'm on him in cash.
- Pelle Larsson ($4,500): He's averaging 30.7 minutes off the bench, and his last game was 17/6/8 in 31 minutes. You rarely see that much playing time at $4,500. He's my favorite cheap play.
- Bam Adebayo ($7,500): Adebayo swings hard: 24/9/3 against Atlanta, but 4 points in 23 minutes against Detroit. With Giannis taking the touches, I keep him to GPPs.
Matchups to target: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Bobby Portis, Pelle Larsson
Matchups to avoid: None
DET at BKN: 222.5 total, DET -8.5
Team totals: DET 115.5, BKN 107.0. Pace: DET 23rd, BKN 20th, blended with last season, a neutral game.
Injury report: Jalen Duren (out, hamstring), Egor Demin (out), Noah Clowney (questionable, illness), Isaiah Joe (questionable).
Expected starters: DET: Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Paul Reed. BKN: Nolan Traore, Mikel Brown Jr., Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, Day'Ron Sharpe.
The angle: The total is low, but two injuries open cheap minutes, so this is a value game for cash.
- Mikel Brown Jr. ($4,900): With Demin out, he's expected to start after three games off the bench. In the last one he played 28 minutes and put up 17/5/5 with four threes against Boston. At $4,900 he's a cheap way into a bigger role, but three games off the bench is a thin track record for cash. I like him as a value play in GPPs.
- Paul Reed ($6,300): Without Duren, his minutes have gone from 11.0 to 27.4 a night. He has started the last three and put up 22/9/3 in 26 minutes against the Knicks. Foul trouble is the risk here, since he's in the high foul tier. He's in my cash core anyway.
- Michael Porter Jr. ($7,300): He went for 27/12 with six threes in 40 minutes against Boston, and 28/9 against Cleveland on 10/24. The field is light on him, and Brooklyn will be chasing points. He's my forward pivot in GPPs.
- Cade Cunningham ($9,600): He's averaging 34.5 minutes and put up 30/5/7 in 39 minutes against Charlotte. An 8.5 point spread against a weak Brooklyn team could cap his fourth quarter. He's a fine GPP play, but not someone I need at this price.
- Julius Randle ($7,500): He played 44 minutes and scored 24 against Boston, but he's in the high foul tier. He's GPP only.
- Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,300): He's averaging 17 minutes this season and he's in the high foul tier. I'd stay away.
Matchups to target: Mikel Brown Jr., Paul Reed, Michael Porter Jr.
Matchups to avoid: Day'Ron Sharpe
Game to fade: CHI at BOS. The total looks great, but Boston is a 14.5 point favorite and Chicago's net rating sits at minus 14. If this one gets out of hand, Jayson Tatum and Paul George could be sitting for the fourth quarter.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner (ORL vs TOR) | Under 5.5 Assists | +107 | 4.0 | 56.3% | 45.2% | +11.0% |
| Anthony Black (ORL vs TOR) | Under 4.5 Assists | -157 | 2.8 | 66.6% | 57.2% | +9.3% |
| John Collins (DET vs BKN) | Under 6.5 Rebounds | +107 | 5.7 | 51.8% | 45.2% | +6.6% |
| Jaden McDaniels (MIN vs LAC) | Under 1.5 Three Pm | +111 | 1.2 | 50.8% | 44.4% | +6.4% |
| Tristan da Silva (ORL vs TOR) | Under 2.5 Three Pm | -128 | 1.8 | 59.0% | 52.5% | +6.5% |
- Franz Wagner Under 5.5 assists: He had exactly 5 assists in three of his last four games, with the 9 against the Knicks as the outlier. I like him in DFS for the scoring and minutes, not the passing, so the two calls fit together. I'd play it.
- Anthony Black Under 4.5 assists: He had one assist in 22 minutes against Toronto on 10/28. The catch is that Suggs is out and the ball will be in his hands more. I lean under, but only a little.
- John Collins Under 6.5 rebounds: Paul Reed is expected to start at center, and Collins had 2 rebounds in 18 minutes against Charlotte last time out. He should play about 26 minutes. I like it.
- Jaden McDaniels Under 1.5 threes: He has made one or two threes in all five games, and exactly one in three of them. That makes it close to a coin flip, with a small lean to the under.
- Tristan da Silva Under 2.5 threes: This one goes against his recent form: 4, 5, 1 and 4 threes in his four games. The sim sees him coming back down. I'd go lighter on this one.
Season record on these props: 23-26, -4.6 units at one unit each.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at BKN | $9,600 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jalen Brunson | NY at PHI | $8,100 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | LaMelo Ball | MIN vs LAC | $8,200 | 29 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs ORL | $7,000 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Paul George | BOS vs CHI | $6,800 | 29 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Desmond Bane | ORL at TOR | $6,800 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS vs CHI | $9,800 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Scottie Barnes | TOR vs ORL | $8,400 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs HOU | $9,500 | 30 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs IND | $10,500 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY at PHI | $8,500 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Alperen Sengun | HOU at DAL | $8,200 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs NY | $8,600 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 2 | Bam Adebayo | MIA vs IND | $7,500 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Paul Reed | DET at BKN | $6,300 | 28 | Popular | Cash |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Cade Cunningham | DET at BKN | $9,700 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Jalen Brunson | NY at PHI | $8,000 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI vs NY | $9,000 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR vs ORL | $7,100 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL at TOR | $6,700 | 35 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Ausar Thompson | DET at BKN | $5,900 | 27 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS vs CHI | $10,200 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs HOU | $9,600 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Brandon Miller | CHA at WSH | $8,100 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA vs IND | $11,300 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Scottie Barnes | TOR vs ORL | $8,900 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Anthony Davis | WSH vs CHA | $9,300 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| C | 1 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs NY | $8,400 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 2 | Alperen Sengun | HOU at DAL | $8,300 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY at PHI | $8,500 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The two sites split on Giannis. He's only mid-owned on DraftKings, but FanDuel players are on him at $11,300. Scottie Barnes and Desmond Bane are cash plays on both sites, so the Toronto game carries weight everywhere.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Paul Reed, Ayo Dosunmu, Brandon Miller, RJ Barrett and Bobby Portis. Reed and Dosunmu both step into bigger roles with Jalen Duren and Anthony Edwards out, and Reed's foul risk is the one thing to watch. Miller has played 36 to 38 minutes in his last three games and his game has a 1.5 point spread, though he's in the high foul tier. Tatum is a fine cash play too, but I don't want to pay $9,800 for him with that 14.5 point spread.
In GPPs, Giannis is the pivot off the chalk in the biggest total on the board. Franz Wagner and Michael Porter Jr. are the cheaper ways to get unique at forward. Pelle Larsson is the cheap play from that same Miami game, but he and Portis will be on a lot of rosters, so go elsewhere for leverage. Mikel Brown Jr. at $4,900 is a fine value play in Brooklyn, and the field is mostly passing on him.
Before lock, check Alperen Sengun and Jaylen Brown, and see if Noah Clowney makes it back for Brooklyn. Indiana at Miami, Houston at Dallas and the Clippers at Minnesota all tip at 8:00 PM ET, so leave yourself a late swap spot there.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.