Saturday brings a five game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, so ownership will stack up on the same few value plays. Atlanta at New Orleans is the best spot on the board at a 240.5 total with two top four pace teams. The injury story is Oklahoma City, which plays without Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in a close game the field skips.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Darius Acuff Jr., Cameron Boozer, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Johnson
- Best GPP pivot: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400), a coin flip game nobody is playing
- Best cheap play: Aday Mara ($3,900), backup center minutes with Holmgren out
- Check before lock: Ty Jerome (questionable, back), Cam Spencer and Boozer gain if he sits
- Late swap: Oklahoma City at Houston, tips 8:30 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Brandon Miller | $7,800 | 37 | 35.25 | 4.5x | Miss |
| Cash core | Ayo Dosunmu | $5,600 | 30 | 28.75 | 5.1x | Solid |
| Cash core | RJ Barrett | $7,000 | 34 | 20.25 | 2.9x | Miss |
| Cash core | Paul Reed | $6,300 | 31 | 19.50 | 3.1x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,500 | 31 | 75.00 | 7.1x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Franz Wagner | $8,000 | 39 | 51.25 | 6.4x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Michael Porter Jr. | $7,300 | 26 | 25.75 | 3.5x | Miss |
| Value play | Pelle Larsson | $4,500 | 24 | 26.25 | 5.8x | Solid |
| Value play | Mikel Brown Jr. | $4,900 | 23 | 17.00 | 3.5x | Miss |
| Value play | Bobby Portis | $4,600 | 17 | 15.75 | 3.4x | Miss |
| Avoid | Wendell Carter Jr. | $6,000 | 39 | 33.75 | 5.6x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Day'Ron Sharpe | $5,300 | 24 | 18.25 | 3.4x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 20 of 39 at or above the slate average, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 14 of 28 at or above the slate average and 5 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 8 of 20 right, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Giannis was the call of the night with 75 DK points in 31 minutes, and Franz Wagner cleared 6x in 39 minutes. The cash core was a bad night, and I own it. RJ Barrett got his 34 minutes and turned them into 20.25 points, which is on him. Paul Reed was the same story in 31 minutes.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO | 7:00 PM | ATL -4.5 | ATL -180 / NO +150 | 240.5 | ATL 122.5 | NO 118.0 |
| CLE at MIL | 8:00 PM | CLE -9.5 | CLE -380 / MIL +300 | 235.5 | CLE 122.5 | MIL 113.0 |
| MIN at SA | 8:00 PM | SA -12.5 | MIN +425 / SA -575 | 225.5 | MIN 106.5 | SA 119.0 |
| SAC at MEM | 8:00 PM | MEM -8.5 | SAC +295 / MEM -375 | 230.5 | SAC 111.0 | MEM 119.5 |
| OKC at HOU | 8:30 PM | HOU -2.5 | OKC +130 / HOU -155 | 219.5 | OKC 108.5 | HOU 111.0 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Atlanta at New Orleans sits five points clear of every other total, and it's also one of only two games with a spread under five.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Anthony Edwards (MIN G) | Out, knee | 34.6 MIN, 31.8% USG, 28.1/5.0/3.6 | Ayo Dosunmu (G, $5,900): MIN 27.3 to 33.1, USG 18.9% to 21.3%; Bones Hyland (G, $3,700): MIN 14.0 to 20.8, USG 19.8% to 22.7%; Jaden McDaniels (F, $6,200): MIN 31.6 to 33.7, USG 18.1% to 22.1% |
| 8 | Chet Holmgren (OKC C) | Out, knee | 29.3 MIN, 21.2% USG, 16.6/8.8/1.6 | Kenrich Williams (G, $4,200): MIN 12.0 to 23.4, USG 17.5% to 20.5%; Jaylin Williams (F, $4,500): MIN 17.7 to 26.9, USG 14.6% to 17.0%; Isaiah Hartenstein (C, $6,100): MIN 23.7 to 27.1, USG 16.2% to 15.3% |
| 8 | Jalen Williams (OKC G) | Out, leg | 27.8 MIN, 25.9% USG, 16.5/4.5/5.0 | Brooks Barnhizer (F, $3,000): MIN 5.8 to 10.4, USG 9.7% to 12.2%; Jared McCain (G, $5,700): MIN 16.8 to 19.7, USG 20.7% to 25.4%; Ajay Mitchell (G, $6,400): MIN 25.0 to 27.2, USG 19.2% to 26.0% |
| 8 | Fred VanVleet (HOU G) | Out | 30.6 MIN, 18.4% USG, 13.0/4.0/6.4 | Amen Thompson (G, $7,600); Reed Sheppard (G, $5,100) |
| 7 | Ty Jerome (MEM G) | Questionable, back | 24.6 MIN, 32.8% USG, 21.2/2.9/5.7 | Scotty Pippen Jr. (G, $4,200): MIN 18.8 to 21.5, USG 22.8% to 30.7%; Cam Spencer (G, $3,700): MIN 21.8 to 23.7, USG 16.5% to 16.1%; Jaylen Wells (F, $4,900): MIN 25.8 to 25.8, USG 17.2% to 23.0% |
| 7 | Tobias Harris (SA F) | Out, calf | 29.0 MIN, 19.8% USG, 14.1/5.5/2.3 | Victor Wembanyama (F, $10,900); Julian Champagnie (F, $4,800) |
| 7 | Keegan Murray (SAC F) | Out, ankle | 34.0 MIN, 18.5% USG, 13.4/5.5/1.6 | Nique Clifford (G, $3,100): MIN 19.4 to 28.4, USG 16.0% to 18.2%; Daeqwon Plowden (G, $3,500): MIN 18.5 to 27.0, USG 12.8% to 16.1%; Precious Achiuwa (F, $5,700): MIN 22.3 to 26.6, USG 17.1% to 18.1% |
| 7 | Maxime Raynaud (SAC C) | Out, knee | 26.6 MIN, 18.2% USG, 12.5/7.5/1.4 | Domantas Sabonis (F, $9,400): MIN 26.5 to 35.2, USG 24.8% to 19.6% |
Questionable: check before lock
- Ty Jerome is questionable with a back injury. If he plays, he's a fine GPP play at $8,400. If he sits, Cam Spencer at $3,700 becomes a real punt and Cameron Boozer picks up even more of the offense.
- Alperen Sengun missed Houston's last two games with a back injury and is now listed active. If he goes, he takes his usual load. If that changes late, Clint Capela is the cheap center behind him.
- Houston now lists Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard as out. If that holds, Amen Thompson runs the offense all night. If either guard gets cleared late, Thompson loses some of the ball.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Atlanta at New Orleans: 240.5 total, ATL -4.5
Team totals: ATL 122.5, NO 118.0. Pace: ATL 3rd, NO 4th, an up-in-pace game.
Injury report: Jordan Poole (Out, ankle), Yves Missi (Out, knee).
Expected starters: ATL: CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. NO: Jeremiah Fears, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Karlo Matkovic.
The angle: This is the best environment on the slate, and the New Orleans side is where the GPP leverage is because the field is buying Hawks.
- Jalen Johnson ($9,700): He has played 34, 36 and 36 minutes in his last three games, with a 26/9/16 line against Houston last week. Both teams sit top four in our NBA pace stats, and this game should run at about 106 possessions. The price is steep, but the minutes are locked in. I love him here.
- Zion Williamson ($7,700): He has scored 22 or more in four of his five games, all in 31 to 33 minutes. Missi is out again, and that pushes more of the frontcourt work his way. The field is leaving him alone at this price. I like him a lot in GPPs.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,900): He put up 25 and 23 points in his last two games and hit nine threes across them. He's at about 30 minutes a night, and a fast game gives him more shots. I like this spot a good bit.
- Jeremiah Fears ($5,600): He went for 22 points, 8 boards and 13 assists in 29 minutes last game. Poole is out, so more of the ball handling falls to him. Before that night he had not topped 11 points, so the floor is low. He's solid.
- Karlo Matkovic ($3,700): He started last game and played 28 minutes, with 12 points and 3 steals. With Missi out he should keep that role, and his minutes went 8, 9, 18 and 28 over his last four games on the NBA rotations and minutes tracker. He's a fine punt.
Matchups to target: Jalen Johnson, Zion Williamson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Karlo Matkovic
Matchups to avoid: None
Sacramento at Memphis: 230.5 total, MEM -8.5
Team totals: SAC 111.0, MEM 119.5. Pace: SAC 9th, MEM 10th, a neutral game.
Injury report: Ty Jerome (Questionable, back), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Day-To-Day, back), Keegan Murray (Out, ankle), Maxime Raynaud (Out, knee), Dylan Cardwell (Out, calf).
Expected starters: SAC: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De'Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis. MEM: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey.
The angle: This is the cash game, with the two most popular value plays on the slate and a Sacramento rotation thin enough that the starters play heavy minutes.
- Darius Acuff Jr. ($7,500): He's playing about 36 minutes a night and dropped 34 points and 14 assists in 41 minutes against New Orleans last time out. Sacramento has three frontcourt players out, so the offense runs through him and Sabonis. He'll be the most popular player on the slate, and in cash that's fine. I love him here.
- Cameron Boozer ($7,400): He went 18/12/12 in 28 minutes in his last game and averages about 32 minutes. If Jerome sits, even more of the offense falls to him. He's the second cash anchor in this game.
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,400): He has 14 or more boards in all five games and is playing about 37 minutes with Raynaud and Cardwell out. Foul trouble is the risk here, and Sacramento is an 8.5 point underdog. He's a GPP play for me.
- Zach LaVine ($6,800): He has scored 21 or more in all five games, including 37 against this Memphis team on October 25. The minutes sit near 37. I like this spot a good bit.
Matchups to target: Darius Acuff Jr., Cameron Boozer, Zach LaVine
Matchups to avoid: None
Oklahoma City at Houston: 219.5 total, HOU -2.5
Team totals: OKC 108.5, HOU 111.0. Pace: OKC 20th, HOU 27th, a slow game.
Injury report: Chet Holmgren (Out, knee), Jalen Williams (Out, leg), Cason Wallace (Out, shoulder), Alex Caruso (Out, ankle), Steven Adams (Out, calf), Fred VanVleet (Out), Reed Sheppard (Out, back).
Expected starters: OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein. HOU: Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, and Houston has to fill the fifth spot with Fred VanVleet out.
The angle: The total is the lowest on the board, but the spread is the tightest, so the stars play all four quarters. This is the GPP game.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400): He put up 34/6/5 in 36 minutes against the Clippers and 32 points against San Antonio on opening night. Oklahoma City is missing two starters, so usage should funnel through him. Almost nobody will play him tonight. I love him in GPPs.
- Ajay Mitchell ($6,400): He scored 29 and 30 in his last two games, both as a starter, in 28 and 25 minutes. With Jalen Williams out, his usage jumps from about 19% to 26%. He's a cash play.
- Aday Mara ($3,900): He played 21 and 20 minutes in his last two games and had 11 points and 10 boards against Phoenix. Holmgren is out for weeks, so the backup center minutes are his. He's the best cheap play on the slate.
- Kevin Durant ($7,900): He scored 28 in 37 minutes against Dallas last night and has 20 or more in five of six games. Houston is on a back-to-back, which is the worry. He's solid.
- Amen Thompson ($7,600): VanVleet and Sheppard are both out, so the ball is his. He has played 33 minutes or more in five of his six games, with 17/11/6 against Atlanta. Houston is on a back-to-back, but the field is light on him. I like him in GPPs.
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,100): He had 10 points and 14 boards in 26 minutes last game, so the rebounding is real. He carries real foul trouble risk tonight, and Mara is eating into the center minutes. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Aday Mara, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson
Matchups to avoid: Isaiah Hartenstein
Game to fade: Minnesota at San Antonio. San Antonio is a 12.5 point favorite and Minnesota has the lowest team total on the slate at 106.5, on the second night of a back-to-back. The Wolves without Anthony Edwards are popular plays, but a blowout cuts their starters short.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoot Henderson (POR vs UTAH) | Under 1.5 Threes | +143 | 1.5 | 44.4% | 38.6% | +5.8% |
| Kevin Durant (HOU vs OKC) | Over 3.5 Assists | +127 | 4.3 | 47.1% | 41.3% | +5.8% |
| Jeremiah Fears (NO vs ATL) | Over 3.5 Assists | +122 | 4.4 | 48.0% | 42.2% | +5.8% |
| Kyle Kuzma (MIL vs CLE) | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -107 | 4.8 | 54.0% | 48.4% | +5.6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL vs CLE) | Over 3.5 Assists | +122 | 4.2 | 46.9% | 42.2% | +4.7% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | Under 5.5 Assists | +107 | 11 | Loss | -0.6 |
| Anthony Black | Under 4.5 Assists | -157 | 10 | Loss | +1.7 |
| John Collins | Under 6.5 Rebounds | +107 | 9 | Loss | -1.0 |
| Jaden McDaniels | Under 1.5 Threes | +111 | 1 | Win | +4.0 |
| Tristan da Silva | Under 2.5 Threes | -128 | 2 | Win | +3.4 |
Last night went 2 and 3, and all three unders on assists and rebounds got blown past, so I'll own that one.
- Scoot Henderson Under 1.5 Threes: He has made one three or fewer in all four games this season, and I'll take plus money on that.
- Kevin Durant Over 3.5 Assists: He cleared this in only two of six games and Sengun is back to share the playmaking, so it's a lean.
- Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Assists: Poole sits again after Fears dished 13 without him last game, and I like that at plus money.
- Kyle Kuzma Under 5.5 Rebounds: I'd keep this one small, since he has six or more boards in all five games.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 3.5 Assists: Two of five games over this line at about 28 minutes is a thin edge.
Season record on these props: 25-29, -5.7 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +1.1 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 27 of 49 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC at HOU | $10,400 | 34 | Low | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Darius Acuff Jr. | SAC at MEM | $7,500 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | James Harden | CLE at MIL | $7,600 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at MIL | $8,700 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Tyler Herro | MIL vs CLE | $7,000 | 31 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Stephon Castle | SA vs MIN | $7,200 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Kevin Durant | HOU vs OKC | $7,900 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN at SA | $6,200 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIL vs CLE | $6,100 | 28 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at NO | $9,700 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Alperen Sengun | HOU vs OKC | $8,600 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs SAC | $7,400 | 31 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs MIN | $10,900 | 30 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at MEM | $9,400 | 36 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Jarrett Allen | CLE at MIL | $6,100 | 28 | Popular | Cash |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC at HOU | $10,300 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI at CHA | $9,200 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Darius Acuff | SAC at MEM | $7,300 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at MIL | $8,700 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Tyler Herro | MIL vs CLE | $7,700 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 3 | VJ Edgecombe | PHI at CHA | $6,000 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Deni Avdija | POR at UTAH | $8,900 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Brandon Miller | CHA vs PHI | $8,500 | 35 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Jaylen Brown | PHI at CHA | $7,800 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at NO | $9,800 | 35 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Evan Mobley | CLE at MIL | $8,000 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs SAC | $7,600 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs MIN | $11,400 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 2 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at MEM | $9,600 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 3 | Alperen Sengun | HOU vs OKC | $8,400 | 33 | Chalk | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
The FanDuel main slate is bigger and adds Philadelphia, Charlotte, Portland and Utah, so Tyrese Maxey and Deni Avdija show up there and not on DraftKings. Tyler Herro is a cash play on DraftKings, but the FanDuel field passes on him. Jalen Johnson flips the other way: popular on DraftKings, full chalk on FanDuel.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Darius Acuff Jr., Cameron Boozer, Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Johnson. Acuff and Boozer will be everywhere, and that's fine in cash. Mitchell and Johnson play big minutes in close games.
For GPPs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the pivot off Wembanyama and Johnson at the top. A coin flip game keeps him on the floor late, and the field won't follow you there. Zion Williamson is the cheaper way into the best game on the slate.
Before lock, watch Ty Jerome's back. If he sits, Cam Spencer opens up as a punt. Houston and Minnesota are both on back-to-backs, and Oklahoma City at Houston tips last at 8:30 PM ET for late swap.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.