Tyrese Haliburton is out for at least two more weeks, so Andrew Nembhard runs the Pacers offense in the biggest total of Sunday's NBA DFS card. The DraftKings and FanDuel crowd will find him in a hurry. I'm looking out west, where Luka Doncic is low-owned in a close Raptors at Lakers game, and on a four game card that gap is worth chasing.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Andrew Nembhard, Scottie Barnes, Neemias Queta, Nolan Traore
- Best GPP pivot: Luka Doncic ($12,300), low-owned in the least popular game on the slate
- Best cheap play: Chaney Johnson ($3,800), expected to start with two Nets guards out
- Check before lock: Obi Toppin (questionable, back), Jalen Slawson and Aaron Nesmith take his minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Raptors at Lakers, tips 9:00 PM ET
Last Night
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Darius Acuff Jr. | $7,500 | 37 | 54.75 | 7.3x | Hit |
| Cash core | Cameron Boozer | $7,400 | 26 | 42.75 | 5.8x | Solid |
| Cash core | Jalen Johnson | $9,700 | 28 | 28.25 | 2.9x | Miss |
| Cash core | Ajay Mitchell | $6,400 | 26 | 18.75 | 2.9x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | $10,400 | 31 | 38.00 | 3.7x | Miss |
| GPP pivot | Zion Williamson | $7,700 | 30 | 33.00 | 4.3x | Miss |
| Value play | Aday Mara | $3,900 | 28 | 29.75 | 7.6x | Hit |
| Value play | Karlo Matkovic | $3,700 | 18 | 26.00 | 7.0x | Hit |
| Avoid | Isaiah Hartenstein | $6,100 | 25 | 23.75 | 3.9x | Right call |
Season record: Cash core: 22 of 43 at or above the slate average, 5.2x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 14 of 30 at or above the slate average and 5 at 6x or better, 4.9x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 9 of 21 right, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
Darius Acuff Jr. carried the night with 54.75 points in 37 minutes, and both value plays came through. Jalen Johnson is the one I own: $9,700 for 28 minutes and 28.25 points was a bad price to pay in cash, and neither GPP pivot got there.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
All Games
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at ORL | 3:30 PM | BOS -7.5 | BOS -278 / ORL +225 | 221.5 | BOS 114.5 | ORL 107.0 |
| BKN at IND | 5:00 PM | IND -3.5 | BKN +142 / IND -170 | 230.5 | BKN 113.5 | IND 117.0 |
| LAC at GS | 8:30 PM | GS -2.5 | LAC +110 / GS -130 | 221.5 | LAC 109.5 | GS 112.0 |
| TOR at LAL | 9:00 PM | LAL -2.5 | TOR +124 / LAL -148 | 224.5 | TOR 111.0 | LAL 113.5 |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Brooklyn at Indiana is green across the row, and both late games sit inside three points, so Boston at Orlando is the one spread with any blowout talk.
Injury Report
| Impact | Player | Status | Role in doubt | Who benefits (with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tyrese Haliburton (IND G) | Out, hamstring | 33.0 MIN, 24.5% USG, 21.8/4.5/9.5 | Andrew Nembhard (G, $7,100): 31.4 MIN, 23.7% USG; Aaron Nesmith (G, $4,400): 28.8 MIN, 20.2% USG |
| 10 | Kawhi Leonard (TOR F) | Out, knee | 32.0 MIN, 33.6% USG, 27.5/6.4/3.5 | Scottie Barnes (F, $8,700): 33.9 MIN, 24.3% USG; RJ Barrett (F, $7,300): 31.2 MIN, 26.2% USG |
| 9 | Paolo Banchero (ORL F) | Out, ankle | 35.0 MIN, 28.3% USG, 22.6/8.3/5.3 | Franz Wagner (F, $8,300): MIN 28.7 to 34.5, USG 26.5% to 27.5%; Desmond Bane (G, $6,900): MIN 33.6 to 35.6, USG 23.2% to 25.3%; Jase Richardson (G, $4,000): MIN 10.8 to 14.8, USG 16.6% to 17.6% |
| 9 | Stephen Curry (GS G) | Out, rest | 30.9 MIN, 32.7% USG, 26.8/3.6/4.6 | Gui Santos (F, $5,500): MIN 14.8 to 27.6, USG 14.8% to 20.7%; Gary Payton II (G, $3,300): MIN 13.4 to 18.5, USG 16.9% to 19.3%; L.J. Cryer (G, $3,000): MIN 4.0 to 18.6, USG 30.7% to 20.3% |
| 8 | Brandon Ingram (LAC) | Out | 33.5 MIN, 26.9% USG, 20.9/5.4/3.6 | Rui Hachimura (F, $5,700): 30.0 MIN, 22.5% USG; Derrick Jones Jr. (F, $4,600): 27.1 MIN, 15.1% USG |
| 7 | Jalen Suggs (ORL G) | Out, knee | 28.6 MIN, 22.1% USG, 13.1/4.0/5.3 | Anthony Black (G, $5,900): MIN 27.6 to 33.1, USG 21.0% to 22.8%; Jase Richardson (G, $4,000): MIN 8.0 to 17.6, USG 15.8% to 17.6%; Tristan da Silva (F, $4,900): MIN 23.2 to 26.4, USG 16.2% to 16.2% |
| 7 | Kristaps Porzingis (GS C) | Out, personal | 23.5 MIN, 28.2% USG, 16.1/5.1/2.4 | Al Horford (C, $4,100): MIN 22.6 to 22.6, USG 18.6% to 15.0%; Charles Bassey (C, $3,200): MIN 11.3 to 13.8, USG 18.6% to 18.4%; Malevy Leons (F, $3,000): MIN 9.5 to 13.5, USG 14.2% to 14.5% |
| 7 | Draymond Green (GS F) | Out, back | 27.8 MIN, 15.7% USG, 8.0/5.5/5.7 | Will Richard (G, $3,400): MIN 17.8 to 26.4, USG 12.7% to 13.8%; Brandin Podziemski (G, $6,600): MIN 29.0 to 28.7, USG 19.6% to 23.7%; Malevy Leons (F, $3,000): MIN 9.9 to 12.1, USG 13.5% to 17.3% |
Questionable: check before lock
- Obi Toppin (IND, back): If he plays, he's a cheap bench scorer at $4,900 in the best game on the board. If he sits, Jalen Slawson and Aaron Nesmith soak up the frontcourt minutes, and Nembhard gets even more of the ball.
- Ziaire Williams (LAL, foot): He's expected to start if he goes. If he sits, Jake LaRavia and Sandro Mamukelashvili get the wing minutes, and that's a late swap spot because the Lakers tip last.
Full report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Nets at Pacers: 230.5 total, IND -3.5
Team totals: BKN 113.5, IND 117.0. Pace: BKN 19th, IND 5th, mostly last season's numbers, a neutral game.
Injury report: Tyrese Haliburton (Out, hamstring), Ivica Zubac (Out, ankle), Ben Sheppard (Out, knee), Obi Toppin (Questionable, back), Egor Demin (Out), Mikel Brown Jr. (Out, rest).
Expected starters: BKN: Nolan Traore, Chaney Johnson, Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, Day'Ron Sharpe. IND: Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr., Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.
The angle: This is the cash game, with the top total on the slate, a 3.5 point spread and Haliburton's usage up for grabs.
- Andrew Nembhard ($7,100): Haliburton is out, so the offense runs through him. He went 18/3/14 in 35 minutes against Philadelphia and 22/2/9 in 30 against Miami, and Indiana sits 5th in our NBA pace stats. He's the chalk and I'm eating it. I love him here.
- Pascal Siakam ($8,400): He has lines of 30/8/1, 26/11/3 and 20/13/6 already, and he has averaged 30.9 minutes in the NBA rotations and minutes tracker. The 13/5/4 against Miami shows you his floor. The field is stacking Nembhard and leaving Siakam lighter, so he's my GPP pivot in this game.
- Julius Randle ($7,500): His minutes have bounced from 44 against Boston to 24 and 25 in two of his last three games. With Demin and Mikel Brown out he should play about 38 minutes, but he carries real foul trouble risk. Fine in GPPs. I'm not forcing him into cash.
- Nolan Traore ($4,300): With two guards out, he starts and should play about 26 minutes, right where he's been in his last three games. In games without Demin he has used 26.2% of the possessions. He's my favorite salary saver in cash.
- Chaney Johnson ($3,800): He's expected to start, and he put up 15/3/2 in 29 minutes against Boston. Foul trouble is the risk with him. At $3,800, I'll take that risk as a punt.
- Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,100): He played 17 and 16 minutes in two of his last three games, and he carries real foul trouble risk tonight. Moritz Wagner just scored 16/8/1 in 23 minutes behind him at $3,600. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Andrew Nembhard, Nolan Traore, Pascal Siakam, Chaney Johnson
Matchups to avoid: Day'Ron Sharpe
Raptors at Lakers: 224.5 total, LAL -2.5
Team totals: TOR 111.0, LAL 113.5. Pace: TOR 16th, LAL 22nd, mostly last season's numbers, a neutral game.
Injury report: Kawhi Leonard (Out, knee), Ziaire Williams (Questionable, foot).
Expected starters: TOR: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Ja'Kobe Walter, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. LAL: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Ziaire Williams, Matisse Thybulle, Walker Kessler.
The angle: This is the GPP game: a close spread, the second best total, the lightest ownership on the slate and the last tip for late swap.
- Luka Doncic ($12,300): He went 52/8/10 against Utah, 41/5/9 against Portland and 37/7/5 against Golden State, with 37 or 38 minutes in each. The field is spending its salary in Indiana. I want more Luka than anyone in GPPs.
- Scottie Barnes ($8,700): Kawhi is out, and Barnes put up 41/5/5 in 39 minutes and 28/6/4 in 31 in two straight games against Orlando. He also scored zero in 28 minutes against Minnesota, so his floor has a hole in it. He's in my cash core.
- Austin Reaves ($8,900): He has played 31 to 39 minutes every night, with 29/1/4 and 28/2/9 in there. Few lineups will pair him with Luka, and I'm happy to stack the two of them in GPPs.
- Walker Kessler ($7,800): He had 26/9/1 and 22/8/3 earlier this season, then 10/13/2 in 31 minutes last time out. The field skips a $7,800 center on a four game slate, which is why I want some. GPP only, but I like him.
- RJ Barrett ($7,300): He swung from 25/9/6 to 9/3/5 against Orlando, and Kawhi's absence leaves him about 26% of the possessions. He carries real foul trouble risk tonight. He's solid.
- Jakob Poeltl ($4,100): He played 10 and 19 minutes in two of his last three games, and he carries real foul trouble risk. Collin Murray-Boyles is right behind him. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Luka Doncic, Scottie Barnes, Austin Reaves, Walker Kessler
Matchups to avoid: Jakob Poeltl
Celtics at Magic: 221.5 total, BOS -7.5
Team totals: BOS 114.5, ORL 107.0. Pace: BOS 29th, ORL 13th, mostly last season's numbers, a neutral game.
Injury report: Paolo Banchero (Out, ankle), Jalen Suggs (Out, knee), Mitchell Robinson (Out, rest), Devin Carter (Out, illness).
Expected starters: BOS: Derrick White, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Neemias Queta. ORL: Anthony Black, Jase Richardson, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
The angle: Mitchell Robinson's rest day makes this the other cash game, because Queta gets the center job at $4,400 and Boston carries one of the best team totals on the board.
- Neemias Queta ($4,400): He came off the bench for 15 to 22 minutes a night, with 15/6/1 against New York and 13/6/0 against Chicago. Now he starts and should play about 26 or 27 minutes. He carries real foul trouble risk, and that's my one worry. He's the best value at center and he's in my cash core.
- Jayson Tatum ($10,100): He scored 40/5/8 in 42 minutes against Brooklyn, 36/9/7 against New York and 26/7/7 his last time out. The 7.5 point spread is the only knock. He's my favorite spend after Luka.
- Franz Wagner ($8,300): With Banchero out his minutes go from 28.7 to 34.5, and he just put up 26/5/11 in 39 minutes and 23/13/9 in 37. He's solid in both formats.
- Desmond Bane ($6,900): He should play about 38 minutes, and he made six threes on his way to 28/2/6 last game. Orlando has the lowest team total on the slate, and he carries real foul trouble risk. He's fine, but I'd rather pay up for Tatum in this game.
- Anthony Black ($5,900): Suggs is out, so his minutes go from 27.6 to 33.1, and he just posted 17/6/10 in 31 minutes against Toronto. I like him at the price in GPPs.
Matchups to target: Neemias Queta, Jayson Tatum, Franz Wagner, Anthony Black
Matchups to avoid: None
Game to fade: Clippers at Warriors. It's the only slow game on the board, and Golden State plays without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis. The cheap Warriors guards will be popular, but I'd rather get my salary relief from Traore and Queta in better games.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR vs LAL) | Under 0.5 Threes | -105 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 48.0% | +8.3% |
| Julius Randle (BKN vs IND) | Under 5.5 Assists | -146 | 4.1 | 62.6% | 55.6% | +7.0% |
| Franz Wagner (ORL vs BOS) | Under 5.5 Assists | +100 | 5.0 | 51.7% | 46.9% | +4.8% |
| Matisse Thybulle (LAL vs TOR) | Over 1.5 Threes | +139 | 1.8 | 42.7% | 39.2% | +3.4% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg (GS vs LAC) | Under 4.5 Assists | -150 | 3.0 | 64.5% | 56.2% | +8.3% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoot Henderson | Under 1.5 Threes | +143 | 1 | Win | +4.4 |
| Kevin Durant | Over 3.5 Assists | +127 | 4 | Win | +2.9 |
| Jeremiah Fears | Over 3.5 Assists | +122 | 7 | Win | +25.0 |
| Kyle Kuzma | Under 5.5 Rebounds | -107 | 3 | Win | +1.9 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Over 3.5 Assists | +122 | 5 | Win | +0.0 |
Last night went 5 for 5, and the close on Jeremiah Fears moved 25 points of win probability our way before he dished seven assists.
- Collin Murray-Boyles Under 0.5 Threes: He has made one three or none in four of his last five games, all off the bench at about 19 minutes, and I like the under.
- Julius Randle Under 5.5 Assists: He stayed under this in three of his last five games, though with Demin and Mikel Brown out a little more creation could fall on him, so I'd keep it a small lean.
- Franz Wagner Under 5.5 Assists: He hit exactly 5 in three of his last five, but his 11 and 9 assist nights came with Banchero out too, and that runs against my call that he's solid tonight.
- Matisse Thybulle Over 1.5 Threes: He made three or more in three of his last six starts, and at plus money with Luka feeding him I'll take it.
- Yaxel Lendeborg Under 4.5 Assists: He went under in three of his last six, though Curry and Green both sitting could put the ball in his hands more, so I'd keep this small.
Season record on these props: 30-29, +0.4 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +1.7 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 31 of 54 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL vs TOR | $12,300 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Andrew Nembhard | IND vs BKN | $7,100 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Darius Garland | LAC at GS | $8,200 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Desmond Bane | ORL vs BOS | $6,900 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 2 | RJ Barrett | TOR at LAL | $7,300 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Paul George | BOS at ORL | $7,200 | 29 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at ORL | $10,100 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Scottie Barnes | TOR at LAL | $8,700 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs BOS | $8,300 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Pascal Siakam | IND vs BKN | $8,400 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Julius Randle | BKN at IND | $7,500 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Obi Toppin | IND vs BKN | $4,900 | 21 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Walker Kessler | LAL vs TOR | $7,800 | 29 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL vs BOS | $5,800 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 3 | Neemias Queta | BOS at ORL | $4,400 | 26 | Chalk | Cash |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Luka Doncic | LAL vs TOR | $11,900 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Andrew Nembhard | IND vs BKN | $6,400 | 34 | Chalk | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Darius Garland | LAC at GS | $7,200 | 33 | Popular | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Austin Reaves | LAL vs TOR | $8,000 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL vs BOS | $6,800 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | RJ Barrett | TOR at LAL | $6,900 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at ORL | $10,100 | 36 | Popular | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs BOS | $8,000 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SF | 3 | Michael Porter | BKN at IND | $7,300 | 35 | Chalk | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Scottie Barnes | TOR at LAL | $9,100 | 34 | Chalk | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Pascal Siakam | IND vs BKN | $7,900 | 32 | Chalk | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Julius Randle | BKN at IND | $7,400 | 37 | Popular | GPP |
| C | 1 | Walker Kessler | LAL vs TOR | $8,000 | 29 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Neemias Queta | BOS at ORL | $4,100 | 27 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 3 | Wendell Carter | ORL vs BOS | $5,400 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
FanDuel likes Austin Reaves more than DraftKings does: he's the top shooting guard there at $8,000 and misses the top three on DraftKings at $8,900. Scottie Barnes goes the other way: he costs $400 more on FanDuel and loses the cash tag there. Nembhard is a smaller spend on FanDuel at $6,400, which makes him even easier to fit.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Andrew Nembhard, Scottie Barnes, Neemias Queta and Nolan Traore. Queta's foul trouble is the one real risk, and Barnes has a zero point game on his record this season, so I want both of them to start the night fast. Randle is chalk too, but his minutes have swung too much for me to lock him in.
In GPPs, Luka Doncic is the pivot. He scored 37 or more in each of his last three games and sits in the least popular game on the slate. Walker Kessler gives you a second Lakers piece the field won't touch, and Chaney Johnson is the cheap play I'm sprinkling everywhere.
Before lock, check Obi Toppin and Ziaire Williams, and save a late swap spot for Raptors at Lakers at 9:00 PM ET.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.