Indiana plays the second night of a back-to-back without Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and Ivica Zubac, and that hole is where Monday's NBA DFS slate begins on DraftKings and FanDuel. Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson and Jay Huff all cost $4,600 or less and should play 31 to 39 minutes, so the field will lock them in. I'm eating that chalk in cash and going to Pelicans at Grizzlies, the quietest game of the 11, for tournament leverage.
Updated 1:06 PM CT: Dejounte Murray moved from doubtful to questionable and is expected to start for New Orleans, so Jeremiah Fears drops back to about 24 minutes. Kyrie Irving and Scotty Pippen Jr. went doubtful, and I'm treating both as out.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson, Jay Huff, Franz Wagner
- Best GPP pivot: Cameron Boozer ($7,700), low-owned in the quietest game on the slate
- Best cheap play: Tristan da Silva ($4,800), about 36 minutes with Anthony Black resting
- Check before lock: Obi Toppin (questionable, back), Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown take his minutes if he sits
- Late swap: Boston at Houston, tips 8:30 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC at CLE | 7:00 PM | CLE -3.5 | OKC +150 / CLE -179 | 229.5 | OKC 113.0 | CLE 116.5 |
| ATL at IND | 7:30 PM | ATL -8.5 | ATL -393 / IND +311 | 230.5 | ATL 119.5 | IND 111.0 |
| BKN at NY | 7:30 PM | NY -14.5 | BKN +650 / NY -980 | 218.5 | BKN 102.0 | NY 116.5 |
| CHI at PHI | 7:30 PM | PHI -10.5 | CHI +406 / PHI -537 | 238.5 | CHI 114.0 | PHI 124.5 |
| DET at CHA | 7:30 PM | DET -5.5 | DET -219 / CHA +182 | 210.5 | DET 108.0 | CHA 102.5 |
| WSH at ORL | 7:30 PM | ORL -3.5 | WSH +136 / ORL -161 | 225.5 | WSH 111.0 | ORL 114.5 |
| MIL at MIN | 8:00 PM | MIN -12.5 | MIL +394 / MIN -519 | 234.5 | MIL 111.0 | MIN 123.5 |
| NO at MEM | 8:00 PM | MEM -5.5 | NO +164 / MEM -196 | 233.5 | NO 114.0 | MEM 119.5 |
| SAC at DAL | 8:00 PM | DAL -10.5 | SAC +320 / DAL -408 | 232.5 | SAC 111.0 | DAL 121.5 |
| BOS at HOU | 8:30 PM | HOU -5.5 | BOS +164 / HOU -196 | 217.5 | BOS 106.0 | HOU 111.5 |
| UTAH at SA | 8:30 PM | SA -16.5 | UTAH +740 / SA -1180 | 228.5 | UTAH 106.0 | SA 122.5 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tyrese Haliburton (IND G) | Out, hamstring | 33.0 MIN, 21.8/4.5/9.5 | Jarace Walker ($4,600) 21.0 to 23.3; Quenton Jackson ($4,300) 19.5 to 20.7 |
| 9 | Jalen Johnson (ATL F) | Questionable, ankle | 35.0 MIN, 22.0/10.0/7.7 | Asa Newell ($3,500) 9.1 to 22.3; Corey Kispert ($3,200) 15.3 to 25.5 |
| 9 | Joel Embiid (PHI C) | Questionable, foot | 32.1 MIN, 25.7/7.8/4.3 | Adem Bona ($3,800) 12.1 to 20.6; Justin Edwards ($3,000) 9.5 to 18.4 |
| 9 | Anthony Edwards (MIN G) | Out, knee | 34.6 MIN, 28.1/5.0/3.6 | Ayo Dosunmu ($6,200) 27.3 to 33.5; Bones Hyland ($3,500) 14.0 to 20.5 |
| 8 | Alex Sarr (WSH C) | Out, knee | 27.0 MIN, 15.5/7.2/2.6 | Khris Middleton ($3,200) 22.7 to 25.0 |
| 8 | Chet Holmgren (OKC C) | Out, knee | 29.3 MIN, 16.6/8.8/1.6 | Kenrich Williams ($4,300) 12.0 to 23.2; Aday Mara ($4,100) 13.0 to 23.0 |
| 8 | Jalen Williams (OKC G) | Out, leg | 27.8 MIN, 16.5/4.5/5.0 | Bennett Stirtz ($3,800) 4.7 to 26.3; Ajay Mitchell ($6,600) 25.0 to 27.1 |
| - | Pascal Siakam (IND F) | Out | 32.2 MIN | See Atlanta at Indiana |
| - | Andrew Nembhard (IND G) | Out | 32.5 MIN | See Atlanta at Indiana |
| - | Dejounte Murray (NO G) | Questionable | 30.0 MIN, 17.8/5.8/6.0 | Jeremiah Fears ($6,300) 23.0 to 30.0 |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Scottie Barnes | $8,700 | 36 | 45.50 | 5.2x | Solid |
| Cash core | Andrew Nembhard | $7,100 | 35 | 35.25 | 5.0x | Solid |
| Cash core | Nolan Traore | $4,300 | 30 | 31.00 | 7.2x | Hit |
| Cash core | Neemias Queta | $4,400 | 27 | 23.00 | 5.2x | Solid |
| GPP pivot | Luka Doncic | $12,300 | 35 | 86.75 | 7.1x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Walker Kessler | $7,800 | 31 | 44.75 | 5.7x | Solid |
| Value play | Chaney Johnson | $3,800 | 31 | 6.00 | 1.6x | Miss |
| Avoid | Day'Ron Sharpe | $5,100 | 26 | 38.25 | 7.5x | Wrong call |
| Avoid | Jakob Poeltl | $4,100 | 0 | 0 | Did not play |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
Chicago at Philadelphia has the biggest total at 238.5, but five games carry a spread of 10 points or more, so blowout risk hangs over a lot of this board.
Every cash play cleared the slate average last night, Nolan Traore hit at 7.2x in 30 minutes and Luka Doncic paid off the pivot with 86.75 points. Chaney Johnson got 31 minutes and did nothing with them, and I was wrong on Day'Ron Sharpe, who scored 38.25 in 26 minutes.
Season record: Cash core: 26 of 47 at or above the slate average, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 16 of 32 at or above the slate average and 6 at 6x or better, 5.0x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 9 of 22 right, 5.4x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average.
The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Atlanta at Indiana: 230.5 total, ATL -8.5
Cash game. Atlanta ranks 3rd in pace and Indiana 13th, and the Pacers are down seven rotation players on the second night of a back-to-back. Out: Haliburton, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, McConnell, Zubac, Nance. Questionable: Toppin, Johnson.
- Jarace Walker ($4,600): He came off the bench in each of the last five games and played 20 minutes last night. Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith are all out, so he should start and play about 39 minutes, up from the 23.4 he's averaged over five games on our NBA rotations and minutes tracker. I love him here.
- Quenton Jackson ($4,300): He scored 24 in 24 minutes against Miami and hit three threes in 24 minutes last night. With Haliburton out his usage jumps from 12.8% to 22.6% in the split, and with Nembhard and McConnell out too he should start at the point and play about 36 minutes. He does carry real foul trouble risk. I'm in.
- Jay Huff ($4,000): Huff scored zero in 17 minutes last night, so this one takes a stomach. Zubac and Larry Nance Jr. are both out, and he should start at center and play about 31 minutes. He scored 13 with three threes in 19 minutes against Miami. It's chalk I'll eat in cash.
- Obi Toppin ($4,900): He missed the last two games with a back injury. Before that he played 20 to 25 minutes a night off the bench and scored 20 with four threes against New Orleans. I love him if he plays.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. ($4,800): Oubre has averaged 23 minutes over five games, but with Siakam and Nesmith out he should play close to 40. He's low-owned next to three Pacers the whole field will play, so I like him as the tournament pivot inside this game.
Matchups to target: Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson, Obi Toppin, Kelly Oubre Jr.
Matchups to avoid: None
Washington at Orlando: 225.5 total, ORL -3.5
Cash game. Washington ranks 12th in pace and Orlando 18th, but this is the closest spread on the slate and Orlando is missing three starters. Out: Banchero, Suggs, Black, Sarr, Champagnie. Questionable: None.
- Franz Wagner ($8,300): Franz has run the Orlando offense with Banchero out: 26 points and 11 assists in 39 minutes against Toronto, then 14 points, 6 rebounds and 12 assists in 40 minutes against Boston last night. He's averaged 36.7 minutes over five games, and a 3.5 point spread should keep him out there. He's my cash anchor.
- Desmond Bane ($7,000): Bane played 40 minutes last night and hit five threes, and he scored 28 with six threes against Toronto on Friday. He carries real foul trouble risk, which keeps him a notch below Franz for me. He's solid.
- Tristan da Silva ($4,800): He scored 23 with 10 rebounds and five threes in 35 minutes off the bench last night. Anthony Black rests tonight, and without Black his minutes go from 22.7 to 29.0 in the split. He should play about 36, and few people in the field are on him. I love him here.
- Anthony Davis ($8,600): Davis had 25 points and 13 rebounds against Charlotte on Friday. Orlando's defense gives up 114.1 points per 100 possessions, and with Alex Sarr out tonight, Davis should handle more of the Washington frontcourt work. He's popular, and I like him in both formats.
- Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,100): Carter has averaged 32.4 minutes, but he has one of the highest foul trouble risks on the slate, and the minutes are only safe if he stays out of it. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Franz Wagner, Tristan da Silva, Anthony Davis
Matchups to avoid: Wendell Carter Jr.
New Orleans at Memphis: 233.5 total, MEM -5.5
GPP game. New Orleans ranks 4th and Memphis 6th on our NBA pace stats board, and this game has the least combined ownership on the slate. Out: Poole, Missi, Pippen. Questionable: Murray.
- Cameron Boozer ($7,700): Boozer posted 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists against Portland, then 27 with three threes in 26 minutes against Sacramento. He's averaged 30.7 minutes and costs a few hundred dollars less than Franz with a fraction of the ownership. I love him here.
- Ty Jerome ($8,500): Jerome scored 45 against Utah and 31 against Sacramento in October, and he's expected to start after sitting out Saturday. The minutes are the worry, since he played 24 in his last game. He's low-owned with a huge range. GPP only for me.
- Zion Williamson ($7,500): Zion has scored between 15 and 25 in all six games, with three or more steals in five of them. He won't give you threes or many assists, so you're paying for points and steals. The field is ignoring him, and he's a solid tournament play.
- Jeremiah Fears ($6,300): Fears ran the offense in the two games Murray missed: 22 points and 13 assists in 29 minutes against Sacramento, then 20 points in 31 minutes against Atlanta. Murray is questionable and expected to start, which pushes Fears back to about 24 minutes. I like him if Murray sits, and I'd pass if he plays.
Matchups to target: Cameron Boozer, Zion Williamson, Ty Jerome
Matchups to avoid: None
Game to fade: Brooklyn at New York. It has a 218.5 total, a 14.5 point spread and a slow projected pace, and Brooklyn is on a back-to-back. Blowout risk could cut the starters' fourth quarter minutes, so I'm leaving this one to the field.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart (HOU vs BOS) | Over 1.5 Threes | +171 | 1.8 | 39.5% | 34.7% | +4.9% |
| Keyonte George (UTAH vs SA) | Under 5.5 Assists | +113 | 5.0 | 49.6% | 44.0% | +5.6% |
| Jeremiah Fears (NO vs MEM) | Over 3.5 Assists | -111 | 4.9 | 55.2% | 49.3% | +5.9% |
| Keaton Wagler (LAC vs TOR) | Under 3.5 Assists | +112 | 3.2 | 49.4% | 44.2% | +5.3% |
| Darius Acuff Jr. (SAC vs DAL) | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +120 | 4.1 | 47.5% | 42.6% | +4.9% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Murray-Boyles | Under 0.5 Threes | -105 | 0 | Win | +11.8 |
| Julius Randle | Under 5.5 Assists | -146 | 6 | Loss | +2.2 |
| Franz Wagner | Under 5.5 Assists | +100 | 12 | Loss | -4.3 |
| Matisse Thybulle | Over 1.5 Threes | +139 | 2 | Win | +2.7 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Under 4.5 Assists | -150 | 6 | Loss | +1.1 |
Last night's props went 2-3. Murray-Boyles and Thybulle cashed, and all three assist unders lost, Franz Wagner's by a mile with 12.
- Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Threes: He started against Oklahoma City on Saturday and hit seven threes in 36 minutes, and with Reed Sheppard questionable his role could grow again, so I like the plus money.
- Keyonte George Under 5.5 Assists: He had four and three assists in his last two games, and a 16.5 point spread could cost him fourth quarter minutes, so I'm fine with the under.
- Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Assists: Fears had 13 and 7 assists in the two games Dejounte Murray missed, but Murray is questionable and expected to start, so I trust this pick less than I did this morning.
- Keaton Wagler Under 3.5 Assists: He has come off the bench in all six games and handed out three or fewer in half of them, so this is close, but the plus price makes it worth it.
- Darius Acuff Jr. Over 3.5 Rebounds: He grabbed 5 and 6 in his last two games and should play about 35 minutes in a 232.5 total, so I'll take the plus money.
Season record on these props: 32-32, -0.3 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +1.7 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 35 of 59 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC at CLE | $10,100 | 35 | Mid | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET at CHA | $9,300 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI vs CHI | $9,000 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs OKC | $8,400 | 33 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL vs WSH | $7,000 | 40 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Tyler Herro | MIL at MIN | $6,900 | 30 | Mid | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at HOU | $9,900 | 35 | Mid | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs SAC | $9,600 | 31 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs WSH | $8,300 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at IND | $9,700 | 38 | Mid | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Obi Toppin | IND vs ATL | $4,900 | 37 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Anthony Davis | WSH at ORL | $8,600 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs UTAH | $11,100 | 30 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Domantas Sabonis | SAC at DAL | $9,500 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| C | 3 | Joel Embiid | PHI vs CHI | $8,900 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC at CLE | $9,900 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET at CHA | $9,700 | 34 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI vs CHI | $9,500 | 34 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE vs OKC | $8,600 | 33 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Desmond Bane | ORL vs WSH | $6,800 | 40 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | Quenton Jackson | IND vs ATL | $4,200 | 37 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL vs SAC | $10,100 | 31 | Chalk | GPP |
| SF | 2 | Jayson Tatum | BOS at HOU | $10,300 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Franz Wagner | ORL vs WSH | $8,300 | 38 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 1 | Jalen Johnson | ATL at IND | $9,700 | 38 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Anthony Davis | WSH at ORL | $9,200 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Obi Toppin | IND vs ATL | $4,600 | 37 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA vs UTAH | $12,000 | 30 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 2 | Nikola Jokic | DEN vs POR | $11,800 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| C | 3 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs BKN | $8,600 | 30 | Mid | GPP |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
Victor Wembanyama is low-owned on DraftKings at $11,100 but popular on FanDuel at $12,000, so the leverage on him is a DraftKings play. Quenton Jackson cracks the FanDuel shooting guard top three at $4,200, and the FanDuel tab pulls in Nikola Jokic because that slate includes the late games.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Obi Toppin (back): If he plays, he starts and should get about 36 minutes at $4,900, and he's the best value on the slate. If he sits, Jalen Slawson ($3,500) goes from 18.7 to 26.3 minutes in the split and Kobe Brown ($3,300) moves up too.
- Jalen Johnson (ankle): If he plays, he's a big-minute forward against a gutted Pacers roster, a GPP play at $9,700. If he sits, Asa Newell ($3,500) goes from 9.1 to 22.3 minutes.
- Joel Embiid (foot): If he plays, he's a low-owned center in the biggest total on the slate. If he sits, Adem Bona ($3,800) goes from 12.1 to 20.6 minutes, though a 10.5 point spread caps the upside.
- Dejounte Murray (questionable): He's expected to start. If he plays, Fears ($6,300) should get about 24 minutes and becomes a dart. If he sits, Fears goes from 23.0 to 30.0 minutes, based on the two games Murray missed.
- Back-to-back: Indiana and Orlando both played last night, so watch for rest news on the Pacers and Franz before 7:30 PM ET.
- Late swap: Boston at Houston and Utah at San Antonio tip last at 8:30 PM ET, so leave yourself a spot to swap there.
Final Thoughts
Jarace Walker, Quenton Jackson and Jay Huff cost $12,900 together and should play more than 100 minutes between them, which frees up salary to pair them with Franz Wagner. The risk is the back-to-back, and at these prices I'll take it. If Obi Toppin is active, he belongs with them.
In tournaments, Cameron Boozer at $7,700 is my pivot off Franz, with Ty Jerome at $8,500 as the bigger swing in the same game. Tristan da Silva at $4,800 is the cheap way off the Pacers chalk.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is a cash game core in NBA DFS?
A cash game core is the small group of players you put in almost every 50/50 and double-up lineup because their minutes and salary give them the safest floor. Tonight that's three cheap Pacers starters and Franz Wagner, since injuries hand all four big minutes at fair prices. You build the rest of the lineup around them.
Why does pace matter in NBA DFS?
Pace is how many possessions a team plays per 48 minutes, and more possessions mean more shots, rebounds and assists to go around. Chicago ranks 1st in pace tonight, and New Orleans at Memphis puts two top-six pace teams on the same floor. I like the Pelicans and Grizzlies for tournaments because of that extra volume.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.