Jayson Tatum is out for Boston, and that one line moves more NBA DFS money tonight than anything else on DraftKings and FanDuel. Paul George becomes the obvious cash play at $7,200, and Baylor Scheierman should start at $3,800. My leverage plan runs through Utah at New Orleans, the fastest game on the board, which the field is leaving alone.
Updated 5:10 PM CT: Jalen Johnson and Trey Murphy III are out, so Zion Williamson and Jeremiah Fears get more of the New Orleans offense, and Onyeka Okongwu should play about 32 minutes for Atlanta. Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly are available for Washington, and Nic Claxton is out for Chicago, which helps Karl-Anthony Towns on the glass. Payton Pritchard is the last questionable name to check before lock.
At a Glance
- Cash core: Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Meleek Thomas
- Best GPP pivot: Zion Williamson ($7,600), the fastest game on the slate and almost nobody on him
- Best cheap play: Baylor Scheierman ($3,800), expected to start with Tatum out
- Check before lock: Payton Pritchard (questionable), Scheierman's minutes jump again if he sits
- Late swap: Toronto at Denver, tips 9:00 PM ET
Slate Overview
Switch tabs for tonight's injuries and how last night's picks did.
| Game | Tip (ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Away Total | Home Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at WSH | 7:00 PM | ATL -3.5 | ATL -154 / WSH +130 | 230.5 | ATL 117.0 | WSH 113.5 |
| PHI at DET | 7:00 PM | DET -2.5 | PHI +114 / DET -135 | 219.5 | PHI 108.5 | DET 111.0 |
| CHA at BKN | 7:30 PM | CHA -3.5 | CHA -169 / BKN +142 | 212.5 | CHA 108.0 | BKN 104.5 |
| CHI at NY | 7:30 PM | NY -12.5 | CHI +443 / NY -597 | 233.5 | CHI 110.5 | NY 123.0 |
| MIL at BOS | 7:30 PM | BOS -10.5 | MIL +360 / BOS -467 | 221.5 | MIL 105.5 | BOS 116.0 |
| CLE at OKC | 8:00 PM | OKC -3.5 | CLE +136 / OKC -161 | 226.5 | CLE 111.5 | OKC 115.0 |
| IND at MEM | 8:00 PM | MEM -5.5 | IND +184 / MEM -222 | 228.5 | IND 111.5 | MEM 117.0 |
| UTAH at NO | 8:00 PM | NO -5.5 | UTAH +191 / NO -230 | 232.5 | UTAH 113.5 | NO 119.0 |
| MIN at HOU | 8:30 PM | HOU -7.5 | MIN +227 / HOU -278 | 219.5 | MIN 106.0 | HOU 113.5 |
| POR at PHX | 9:00 PM | POR -3.5 | POR -156 / PHX +131 | 227.5 | POR 115.5 | PHX 112.0 |
| TOR at DEN | 9:00 PM | DEN -4.5 | TOR +160 / DEN -191 | 231.5 | TOR 113.5 | DEN 118.0 |
| Impact | Player | Status | Role | Who benefits (minutes with to without) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jalen Johnson (ATL F) | Out, ankle | 35.0 MIN, 22.0/10.0/7.7 | Asa Newell ($3,700) 9.1 to 21.7; Corey Kispert ($3,000) 15.3 to 24.4 |
| 9 | Jayson Tatum (BOS F) | Out, rest | 34.0 MIN, 23.3/9.2/6.2 | Ron Harper Jr. ($3,000) 6.6 to 16.3; Luka Garza ($3,900) 13.2 to 22.4 |
| 8 | Jaren Jackson Jr. (UTAH F) | Out, knee | 25.1 MIN, 18.9/4.7/2.3 | Kyle Filipowski ($4,400) 11.3 to 25.1; Brice Sensabaugh ($3,900) 17.9 to 26.4 |
| 7 | Josh Hart (NY G) | Out | 30.8 MIN, 11.4/7.7/4.7 | Miles McBride ($3,700) 22.0 to 29.2; Mohamed Diawara ($3,000) 8.1 to 12.9 |
| 7 | Payton Pritchard (BOS G) | Questionable | 32.1 MIN, 16.6/3.9/5.0 | Baylor Scheierman ($3,800) 17.8 to 35.3; Ron Harper Jr. ($3,000) 8.3 to 25.3 |
| 7 | Trey Murphy III (NO F) | Out, knee | 35.2 MIN, 20.9/5.6/3.8 | Jeremiah Fears ($6,600) 24.8 to 30.4; Saddiq Bey ($6,100) 30.3 to 33.5 |
| 7 | Ja Morant (POR G) | Out, hamstring | 26.0 MIN, 15.8/2.5/5.5 | - |
| 7 | Peyton Watson (CLE G) | Out, hamstring | 28.3 MIN, 10.8/4.0/3.0 | - |
| 6 | Nic Claxton (CHI C) | Out, hamstring | 27.8 MIN, 11.7/6.9/3.7 | - |
| 6 | Jaylon Tyson (CLE G) | Out, ankle | 23.9 MIN, 11.1/4.6/2.1 | Craig Porter Jr. ($3,200) 15.5 to 19.9; Sam Merrill ($4,200) 24.2 to 27.2 |
| Call | Player | Salary | Minutes | DK Pts | Pts per $1K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash core | Quenton Jackson | $4,300 | 35 | 43.25 | 10.1x | Hit |
| Cash core | Franz Wagner | $8,300 | 38 | 37.75 | 4.6x | Miss |
| Cash core | Jay Huff | $4,000 | 40 | 37.00 | 9.3x | Hit |
| Cash core | Jarace Walker | $4,600 | 45 | 32.25 | 7.0x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Ty Jerome | $8,500 | 37 | 58.25 | 6.9x | Hit |
| GPP pivot | Cameron Boozer | $7,700 | 38 | 40.25 | 5.2x | Solid |
| Value play | Tristan da Silva | $4,800 | 32 | 18.50 | 3.9x | Miss |
| Avoid | Wendell Carter Jr. | $6,100 | 34 | 18.75 | 3.1x | Right call |
Green is the best scoring spot on the slate, yellow is the middle and red is the weakest. A green spread means a close game.
The biggest total, Chicago at New York, comes with a 12.5 point spread, so the high totals with close spreads are Utah at New Orleans, Toronto at Denver and Atlanta at Washington.
Monday's Indiana punts carried the card: Quenton Jackson gave 10.1x and Jay Huff 9.3x. Franz Wagner was the cash miss, 4.6x in 38 minutes, so the minutes were there and the shots were not. Tristan da Silva missed as the value play too. Season record: Cash core: 29 of 51 at or above the slate average, 5.5x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. GPP pivots: 18 of 34 at or above the slate average and 7 at 6x or better, 5.1x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. Avoids: 10 of 23 right, 5.3x per $1K against a 5.1x slate average. The slate average counts every player who played 20+ minutes. A GPP pivot is a Hit at 6x per $1K or better and Solid at or above the slate average. Full results are on the NBA DFS results page.
Full injury report, updated all day: NBA injury report for DFS
Games to Target
Atlanta at Washington: 230.5 total, ATL -3.5
Cash game. Atlanta ranks 3rd in pace and Washington 17th, early ranks that still lean on last season, and a three-and-a-half point spread should keep both sets of starters on the floor late. Out: Johnson, Landale, Champagnie, Watkins.
- Anthony Davis ($8,400): He has played 31 to 36 minutes in every game, and over his last five he averaged 23.6 points and 8.6 rebounds. This is a close game with a big total, so the minutes look safe. I love him here.
- Trae Young ($7,900): Young averaged 19.4 points and 9.0 assists across his last five, in about 36 minutes a night. Washington should run with Atlanta, and that means extra possessions for a guard who runs the offense. He's solid in all formats.
- Kyshawn George ($5,500): His minutes have gone 37, 32 and 38 in the last three games, which is more than we have him for tonight. He went for 22/4/5 against Orlando on Monday. The scoring swings from game to game, but at this price the minutes carry him. I like him a good bit.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,900): He dropped 34 on Monday with nine threes in 31 minutes, and he has scored 23 or more in four of his last eight. He's a shooter, so a cold night is always possible. For tournaments I'm in.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($6,400): He has played 28 to 33 minutes as the starting center in his last three, with a 29/12 game against Cleveland in there. With Johnson out, he should play about 32 minutes, so he works as a tournament center. The foul trouble risk is still real, though, and it can cap a big man's minutes in a hurry. I like him a good bit for tournaments.
Matchups to target: Anthony Davis, Trae Young, Kyshawn George, Onyeka Okongwu
Matchups to avoid: None
Milwaukee at Boston: 221.5 total, BOS -10.5
Cash game. Boston ranks 29th in pace and Milwaukee 14th, but Tatum's absence opens about 34 minutes on the wing, and that is why this game made the three. Out: Tatum, Carter. Questionable: Pritchard.
- Paul George ($7,200): Over his last five games he averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists in about 31 minutes. With Tatum out, more of the offense runs through him. The ten-and-a-half point spread is the risk, because Boston could sit starters early. He's chalk, and I'm fine eating it.
- Baylor Scheierman ($3,800): He made his first start on Monday and played 27 minutes for 11 points and 5 rebounds, and he is in the expected starting five again tonight. He played 11 to 23 minutes off the bench before that. I love him at this price.
- Neemias Queta ($4,900): Queta has started the last two games, at 26 and 27 minutes, with a 16/6 line against Houston. He also has real foul trouble risk, and that is the one thing that can cut a cheap center short. I like him as a second cheap option.
- Tyler Herro ($6,900): He has scored 13 to 34 points in every game, an average of 19.0 over his last five in about 30 minutes. A blowout could take minutes away from him. For tournaments he's fine, but I prefer the Boston side.
- Myles Turner ($5,000): He played 31, 24 and 22 minutes in his last three and scored 4 points against Houston. He starts for the team on the wrong side of a double-digit spread, so his fourth quarter could be on the bench. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Paul George, Baylor Scheierman, Neemias Queta
Matchups to avoid: Myles Turner
Utah at New Orleans: 232.5 total, NO -5.5
GPP game. New Orleans ranks 4th in pace and Utah 5th, early ranks that still lean on last season, and this game projects as the fastest on the slate while the field builds elsewhere. Check the NBA pace stats for the full board. Out: Jackson Jr., Nurkic, Missi, Murphy. Questionable: Bamba.
- Zion Williamson ($7,600): He averaged 20.8 points over his last five in about 32 minutes, and he had 13 steals in those games. The field is on Towns at the same price range, and Zion plays in the faster game. I love him for tournaments.
- Jeremiah Fears ($6,600): His minutes have climbed to 29, 31 and 38 in the last three games, and the NBA rotations and minutes tracker shows the starter role is his. He posted 13, 7 and 7 assists in those games, starting with a 22/8/13 night against Sacramento. I like him a good bit.
- Keyonte George ($7,700): Last week he scored 31 against San Antonio, but in his last two games he played 22 and 29 minutes for 7 and 8 points, with 0 and 4 assists. He has a big ceiling in a fast game, but I'll keep him to tournaments only.
- Lauri Markkanen ($7,400): He scored 22 with 8 rebounds against San Antonio on Monday in 31 minutes. With Jackson Jr. out, Utah has fewer frontcourt options, and he should play about 29 minutes. He's solid.
- Jaxson Hayes ($5,400): He starts at center, but he has played only 19 to 26 minutes in five of his last six games, and he carries real foul trouble risk against a team that draws a lot of fouls. I'd pass.
Matchups to target: Zion Williamson, Jeremiah Fears, Lauri Markkanen
Matchups to avoid: Jaxson Hayes
Game to fade: Charlotte at Brooklyn. It has the lowest total on the slate at 212.5, and Charlotte ranks 30th in pace. Brandon Miller and Julius Randle are fine players, but this game should be a slow halfcourt grind.
Player Props
These are tonight's top player props from our Monte Carlo prop simulation, priced against the DraftKings line. Switch tabs to see how last night's picks did.
| Player | Prop | Odds | Our Number | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears (NO vs UTAH) | Over 3.5 Assists | -118 | 5.3 | 58.5% | 50.7% | +7.8% |
| Alex Caruso (OKC vs CLE) | Under 3.5 Rebounds | -101 | 2.9 | 54.0% | 47.1% | +7.0% |
| Jalen Green (PHX vs POR) | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +110 | 4.2 | 49.1% | 44.6% | +4.5% |
| Ace Bailey (UTAH vs NO) | Under 5.5 Rebounds | +108 | 5.2 | 49.6% | 45.0% | +4.6% |
| Keyonte George (UTAH vs NO) | Under 5.5 Assists | +102 | 5.1 | 50.8% | 46.4% | +4.4% |
| Player | Prop | Odds | Actual | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | Over 1.5 Threes | +171 | 2 | Win | +0.6 |
| Keyonte George | Under 5.5 Assists | +113 | 0 | Win | -0.1 |
| Jeremiah Fears | Over 3.5 Assists | -111 | 7 | Win | +23.8 |
| Keaton Wagler | Under 3.5 Assists | +112 | 4 | Loss | +1.9 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | Over 3.5 Rebounds | +120 | 5 | Win | +4.9 |
The last card went 4-1, and the only loss was Keaton Wagler, who finished with 4 assists against a 3.5 line.
- Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Assists: He has 13, 7 and 7 assists in his last three games, all at 29 minutes or more, and this is the fastest game on the slate, so I like it.
- Alex Caruso Under 3.5 Rebounds: The sim has him at about 18 minutes, and in four games this season he grabbed 2 rebounds in his one game under 20 minutes, so I'm on the under.
- Jalen Green Over 3.5 Rebounds: He had 8 rebounds in 36 minutes on Monday, but only 2, 4, 2 and 2 before that, so this is a price play at plus money and nothing more.
- Ace Bailey Under 5.5 Rebounds: This runs against his recent form, with 6, 7 and 6 boards in his last three, but his minutes fell to 24 on Monday, and I'll trust the number at plus money.
- Keyonte George Under 5.5 Assists: He has 0, 4 and 3 assists in his last three while Fears played 38 minutes on Monday, which matches my read on him in the Utah game.
Season record on these props: 36-33, +3.7 units at one unit each. Closing line value: +2.1 points of win probability on average, and the closing price moved our way on 39 of 64 picks.
Our Number is the simulation's average for that stat. Model and Market are the chance the bet wins, with the market's vig removed. CLV is how many points of win probability the DraftKings closing line moved toward our side after we posted the pick.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays by Position
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC vs CLE | $10,300 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET vs PHI | $9,300 | 32 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs CHI | $8,100 | 36 | Popular | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at OKC | $8,500 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Paul George | BOS vs MIL | $7,200 | 31 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 3 | RJ Barrett | TOR at DEN | $7,100 | 33 | Mid | Cash |
| SF | 1 | Scottie Barnes | TOR at DEN | $8,600 | 34 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Brandon Miller | CHA at BKN | $8,400 | 33 | Low | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Kevin Durant | HOU vs MIN | $7,800 | 32 | Low | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs CHI | $8,300 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| PF | 2 | Alperen Sengun | HOU vs MIN | $8,900 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| PF | 3 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs IND | $8,000 | 30 | Mid | Cash |
| C | 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN vs TOR | $12,300 | 35 | Low | GPP |
| C | 2 | Joel Embiid | PHI at DET | $9,000 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| C | 3 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL at WSH | $6,400 | 33 | Mid | GPP |
| Pos | Rank | Player | Matchup | Salary | Min | Field | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC vs CLE | $9,900 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
| PG | 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET vs PHI | $9,500 | 32 | Popular | GPP |
| PG | 3 | Jalen Brunson | NY vs CHI | $7,900 | 36 | Chalk | Cash |
| SG | 1 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE at OKC | $8,100 | 35 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 2 | Dyson Daniels | ATL at WSH | $6,700 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| SG | 3 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | ATL at WSH | $6,500 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| SF | 1 | Paul George | BOS vs MIL | $7,600 | 31 | Popular | Cash |
| SF | 2 | Brandon Miller | CHA at BKN | $8,300 | 33 | Low | GPP |
| SF | 3 | Lauri Markkanen | UTAH at NO | $6,800 | 29 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 1 | Anthony Davis | WSH vs ATL | $9,200 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| PF | 2 | Cameron Boozer | MEM vs IND | $7,900 | 30 | Popular | GPP |
| PF | 3 | Pascal Siakam | IND at MEM | $8,000 | 32 | Mid | GPP |
| C | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | NY vs CHI | $8,400 | 32 | Chalk | Cash |
| C | 2 | Joel Embiid | PHI at DET | $8,800 | 31 | Low | GPP |
| C | 3 | Onyeka Okongwu | ATL at WSH | $6,000 | 33 | Popular | Cash |
Min is projected minutes. Field is how popular the player should be: Chalk, Popular, Mid or Low.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a tournament piece on DraftKings but a popular cash play on FanDuel, where he costs $400 less. Davis also costs more on FanDuel, so on that site I lean on Towns at center.
Every projection lives on today's NBA DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free NBA lineup optimizer.
Before Lock
- Payton Pritchard (questionable): If he plays, Boston's guard minutes stay as they are. If he sits, Baylor Scheierman ($3,800) goes from 17.8 to 35.3 minutes, and he becomes a lock.
- Late swap: Portland at Phoenix and Toronto at Denver tip last at 9:00 PM ET, so hold a Jokic or Barnes spot open until the early news settles.
Final Thoughts
The cash core starts with two chalk plays I won't fade. Towns gets more rebounds with Hart out, and he has 10 or more boards in every game this season, while George takes on Tatum's role. Both play in games with a double-digit spread, and Towns carries real foul trouble risk, so I accept a minutes risk with them. Davis and Meleek Thomas balance it out. Davis plays in the closest big-total game, and Thomas, at $3,800, started his last game with Watson and Tyson out and should play about 27 minutes.
In tournaments, Zion Williamson is my pivot off Towns, in the fastest game of the night, and Jokic at $12,300 is the low-owned superstar in a close game. Scheierman at $3,800 pays for both.
More slates in the NBA DFS articles archive.
NBA DFS FAQ
What is a GPP pivot in NBA DFS?
A GPP pivot is a player at a similar price to a popular play who the field is passing on. Tonight Towns is the chalk at $8,300, and Zion Williamson at $7,600 does the same job in a faster game with far fewer lineups on him. If Towns has a quiet night, the pivot moves you past most of the field.
What is late swap in NBA DFS?
Late swap lets you change players in your lineup until their own game tips, even after the early games start. Tonight the last two games tip at 9:00 PM ET, so you can wait on the Denver and Phoenix news and adjust after the first games are underway.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN NBA tools: today's NBA DFS projections, the free NBA lineup optimizer, the NBA injury report for DFS, the NBA rotations and minutes tracker, and NBA pace stats.