Edmonton's defense gets the biggest Elo edge on the board tonight against Anaheim, and the Oilers forwards get a SMASH tag too, which means both units rate well above the Ducks units they will face. With Zach Hyman still out, more of the top power play work runs through Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, so the Edmonton top power play unit (EDM PP1) is our main build. Andrei Vasilevskiy is our goalie, at home against a Chicago team on the second night of a back-to-back. A full eleven-game card also leaves room for a low-owned Dallas stack that most of the field will skip.
Last Night
Jacob Markstrom won for Florida, but he made 17 saves for 7.4 DK points. FLA PP1 scored 90.6 DK points, second of the eight PP1 units on the slate, so the stack call hit. Both value plays missed: Aaron Ekblad scored 4.3 at $3,200 and Chandler Stephenson 3.0 at $3,300. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 5-2, the primary stack has hit 4 of 7, the value plays 3 of 14, the blocks picks 1 of 6 and the props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when nine games drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries, the line matchup edges and the blocks targets.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN @ WPG | 6.5 | WPG -220 | VAN 2.72, WPG 3.69 | VAN kill ranks 32nd |
| CHI @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -420 | CHI 2.36, TBL 4.14 | CHI back-to-back with travel |
| DAL @ CBJ | 5.5 | DAL -134 | DAL 2.90, CBJ 2.63 | DAL power play 1st, CBJ kill 29th |
| VGK @ DET | 5.5 | VGK -144 | VGK 3.07, DET 2.71 | both teams on 3 in 4 |
| UTA @ MTL | 6.5 | UTA -120 | UTA 3.37, MTL 3.23 | none |
| STL @ NJD | 5.5 | NJD -200 | STL 2.46, NJD 3.25 | none |
| CAR @ NYI | 5.5 | CAR -188 | CAR 3.25, NYI 2.53 | none |
| PHI @ NYR | 5.5 | NYR -144 | PHI 2.64, NYR 3.00 | none |
| BOS @ PIT | 6.5 | BOS -114 | BOS 3.28, PIT 3.22 | none |
| ANA @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -188 | ANA 3.09, EDM 3.88 | EDM power play 2nd |
| NSH @ COL | 6.5 | COL -220 | NSH 2.73, COL 3.70 | COL on 3 in 4 |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) | Expected | 77.2% | 2.36 | $8,500 |
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 65.8% | 2.73 | $8,300 |
| Stuart Skinner (WPG) | Confirmed | 65.8% | 2.72 | $8,400 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (NJD) | Expected | 63.8% | 2.46 | $8,100 |
| Tristan Jarry (EDM) | Expected | 62.5% | 3.09 | $8,000 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) | Expected | 62.5% | 2.53 | $8,200 |
| Carter Hart (VGK) | Expected | 56.5% | 2.71 | $7,900 |
| Dylan Garand (NYR) | Confirmed | 56.5% | 2.64 | $8,000 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | Expected | 54.8% | 2.63 | $7,900 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | Expected | 52.2% | 3.23 | $7,800 |
| Jeremy Swayman (BOS) | Expected | 51.0% | 3.22 | $7,800 |
| Arturs Silovs (PIT) | Expected | 49.0% | 3.28 | $7,600 |
| Jacob Fowler (MTL) | Expected | 47.8% | 3.37 | $7,600 |
| Jet Greaves (CBJ) | Expected | 45.2% | 2.90 | $7,500 |
| Daniil Tarasov (DET) | Expected | 43.5% | 3.07 | $7,500 |
| Dan Vladar (PHI) | Expected | 43.5% | 3.00 | $7,400 |
| Semyon Varlamov (NYI) | Expected | 37.5% | 3.25 | $7,200 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | Expected | 37.5% | 3.88 | $7,400 |
| Joel Hofer (STL) | Expected | 36.2% | 3.25 | $7,300 |
| Juuse Saros (NSH) | Expected | 34.2% | 3.70 | $7,100 |
| Leevi Merilainen (VAN) | Expected | 34.2% | 3.69 | $7,000 |
| Arvid Soderblom (CHI) | Expected | 22.8% | 4.14 | $6,900 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured Reserve (suspension) | 9 | DeBrincat, Arvidsson, Raymond |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Crosby, Rakell, Novak |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Injured Reserve (neck) | 8 | McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Day-To-Day (hand) | 7 | Anderson, Evans, Caufield |
| Patrick Kane (CHI, RW) | Out (upper body) | 7 | Bedard, Frondell, Kantserov |
| Mike Matheson (MTL, D) | Out (lower body) | 7 | Guhle, Carrier, Hutson |
| Evgeni Malkin (PIT, C) | Day-To-Day (lower body) | 6 | Crosby, Rakell, Novak |
| Miro Heiskanen (DAL, D) | Day-To-Day (upper body) | 6 | Lindell, Harley |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL F2 | Hagel, Cirelli, Goncalves | +15.3 | CHI F1 (40% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 77 min |
| EDM F1 | McDavid, Draisaitl, Podkolzin | +12.7 | ANA F1 (45% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 227 min |
| WPG F1 | Connor, Scheifele, Vilardi | +6.6 | VAN F1 (42% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 687 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier (MTL, $3,300) | D2 | none | 2.2 | 36% |
| MacKenzie Weegar (UTA, $4,600) | D1 | PP2 | 2.0 | 30% |
The best special teams spot of the night is Dallas: its power play ranks 1st in expected goals and Columbus has the 29th-ranked kill. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. Full numbers live on the NHL team matchups, NHL injuries and NHL line matchups pages.
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,500), cash and GPP
Vasilevskiy is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and he has the best win chance on the slate. Chicago plays its second game in two nights after travel, it is playing without Patrick Kane, and its 5v5 offense ranks 31st in expected goals. He should face only about 21 shots, so the saves will be light, but his 11% shutout chance is the best of any starter tonight. If Tampa turns to its backup, move to Stuart Skinner, who is confirmed for Winnipeg. Track the morning news on our NHL starting goalies page.
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard ($34,200 for the unit)
Lukas Dostal is expected in net for Anaheim, and the Oilers carry the second-most goals implied on the slate. The power play ranks 2nd in expected goals, and with Hyman out the top unit runs through McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen. At even strength the McDavid line wins 56% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. This unit can reach about 108 DK points on a big night, the highest of any stack tonight. It is our cash core and a good GPP base, but expect the most popular stack on the board.
WPG PP1: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi ($27,500 for the unit)
Vancouver brings the worst penalty kill in the league by expected goals against, 32nd of 32, with Leevi Merilainen expected in goal. The Jets forwards also carry a SMASH tag against the Canucks forwards. The Connor line wins 51% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, which is about average, so we stack the Jets for the power play. This unit can reach about 105 DK points on a big night for $6,700 less than EDM PP1. Use it in cash builds with Connor, and pair it with Edmonton in GPP.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen ($29,200 for the unit, contrarian)
Dallas has the best power play in the league by expected goals, and Columbus has the 29th-ranked kill, with Jet Greaves expected in net. Far fewer people will play this unit than the three stacks above it. Robertson's second line with Roope Hintz wins 51% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and Thomas Harley gets more of the point work while Miro Heiskanen is a game-time call. The unit can reach about 86 DK points on a big night. This is a GPP stack only. Check every unit on our NHL lines page.
Value Stack
WPG PP2: Dawson Mercer, Alex Iafallo, Nino Niederreiter ($13,000 for the unit)
The Winnipeg second unit is the cheapest stack on the slate with a big-night number in the top half, about 50 DK points. It is a salary saver that gets the same weak Vancouver kill, so you can use one or two of these players to pay for Edmonton.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: EDM PP1. Pivot: TBL PP1 ($29,000). Tampa has the most goals implied on the slate and its forwards carry a SMASH tag against Chicago, yet fewer people will play it than Edmonton, and the big-night number is close.
Chalk goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Pivot: Stuart Skinner ($8,400). Skinner is confirmed, wins about two of three times against Vancouver, and is far less popular, which makes him a natural pair with a Jets stack.
Fades
Moritz Seider ($5,500). He is one of the more popular defensemen on the slate, but the Detroit defense gets a TOUGH tag against Vegas. The Golden Knights also have the best penalty kill in the league by expected goals against, which caps his power play value.
Skaters
Centers
Connor McDavid ($9,500): cash. He centers the top line and PP1 and should play about 22 minutes with three or four shots. He is the most popular skater in single entry, and with Hyman out we are happy to be on the same side as the field.
Jack Hughes ($8,300): GPP. Hughes centers New Jersey's second line, stays on PP1 and should get three or four shots, with close to a 30% chance at five or more. His line has a +9.9 edge against St. Louis, and few people will pay up for him over McDavid.
Wingers
Kyle Connor ($7,300): cash. Connor plays on the top line and PP1, should play about 21 minutes and should get about four shots. Vancouver's last-place kill makes him the safest winger on the slate.
Brandon Hagel ($7,600): GPP. Hagel plays on the second line with Anthony Cirelli and on PP2, and he should get three or four shots. That line has the best edge on the board at +15.3, and he is low-owned next to Tampa's top line.
Defensemen
Evan Bouchard ($7,500): cash. Bouchard runs the top pair and PP1, should play about 24 or 25 minutes and should get about three shots. The Edmonton defense has the largest Elo gap of any unit tonight.
Cale Makar ($7,300): GPP. Makar plays on the top pair and PP1 for about 24 minutes, and the Colorado defense carries a SMASH tag against Nashville. He has a big-night ceiling of about 25 DK points at lower ownership than Bouchard.
Value Plays
Kasperi Kapanen (EDM W, $3,300): he plays on the second line but stays on PP1 with McDavid and Draisaitl, the best power play spot on the slate at this price.
Mavrik Bourque (NSH W, $2,900): he plays on Nashville's top line and on PP1, and no other skater under $3,000 has a top-line spot and a PP1 spot tonight.
Before Lock
- Vasilevskiy is expected to start but is not confirmed. If Tampa goes to its backup, switch to Stuart Skinner.
- Chicago is on the second half of a back-to-back with travel and its third game in four nights. Vegas, Detroit and Colorado are also on three games in four nights.
- Zach Hyman stays out for Edmonton, which keeps the PP1 work with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.
- Miro Heiskanen is a game-time call. If he sits, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell get more minutes.
- Nick Suzuki is a game-time call for Montreal, and Mike Matheson is out, which pushes more minutes to Alexandre Carrier.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Vasilevskiy, McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard and Connor. For GPP, build from EDM PP1 or WPG PP1, take the contrarian DAL PP1 stack in some builds, add Hughes or Hagel as one-offs, and leave Seider on the bench. All the numbers are on our NHL projections page.
NHL DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie and can tire late in the game. Tonight Chicago plays its second game in two nights after travel, which is one reason we like Vasilevskiy and stay away from Chicago skaters.
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack uses the players on a team's first power play unit, usually four forwards and a defenseman. When that unit scores, three or four of them get points on the same goal, so their DraftKings scores rise together. EDM PP1 and WPG PP1 are the two units we build around tonight.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.